This and that
Good morning, and welcome back to School of Roch. Feel free to change your seats. We're not alphabetized here. And I'm not going to mark you as late if you arrive after the second bell.
I never liked the word "tardy."
Extra credit will be given to anyone who has Shin-Soo Choo's baseball card.
Breaking news: Michael Phelps just repaired the ozone layer. More details to follow as they become available.
Hank Steinbrenner says injuries killed the Yankees this year and he promises that they'll win next year. I guess he's written off 2008.
Anyone feel badly for him?
I'm sure many of you noticed that Carl Pavano started for Double-A Trenton in last night's game against the Bowie Baysox. He allowed five runs and seven hits in 4 1/3 innings, leaving his ERA at 5.63 in two rehab starts. He also hit two batters and threw 80 pitches.
I staked out Pavano at the warehouse the day he visited Camden Yards and was given the orange-carpet treatment. The Orioles wanted him badly. His agent was nice enough to put him on the phone as he headed back to the airport, and I got my interview.
Luckily for the Orioles, they didn't get their man.
David Hernandez (7-4, 2.55 ERA) starts tonight for the Baysox. He doesn't get the same attention as Chris Tillman and Brad Bergesen, but he deserves it. He has 145 strikeouts in 120 innings. And that's not unusual for him, if you look over his minor league career.
In case you missed it, Chris Ray threw a scoreless inning yesterday in the Gulf Coast League. It looked pretty routine.
If it's true that first-round pick Brian Matusz is seeking a major league deal, as reported, that's a problem. A big one.
Matt Wieters didn't get one. Adam Loewen did. The Orioles aren't looking to hand out any others at the moment.
I was told the sides are close. Other people say they're far apart. Maybe it's somewhere in the middle.
Losing Matusz might not seem like a crushing blow, given the compensation awarded, but as Brian Roberts said yesterday, "You've got to sign your first-round pick."
Roch
I agree with Brob, gotta sign the first round pick. Concerning the AA staff, do you see any of these guys getting a shot with the big club in September? Any word on Penn's shoulder?
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I could see Bergesen getting a shot in September, though that's more of a hunch. Last thing I heard about Penn was they skipped his turn. I'll check on him. - Roch
Matt Wieters wanted 10 mil the morning of the deadline. He got "only" 6. My guess is Brian ends up with 4 mil and no major league deal. According to most, he's so advanced he should start in AA and be here by 2010 anyway.
Going to game in Trenton tonight. Really looking forward to seeing Hernandez, and of course Wieters. Never been that stadium, hopefully it is a good time.
What's the problem with a major league deal for Matusz? Everyone says he is close to ready. Possibility he could be in the big leagues next september. If that's the case, then only one option is used.
We need the help...Sign the petition!
http://bringmarkhome.withthispetition.com
I guess the only knock on Hernandez is his walk total which was at about 40+% of IP's.But other than that, the stats look great. I am reading that Feinstein book "Living on the Black". In it , Mussina had absolutely no use for Pavano. No work ethic and a poor team guy.Also explains how we fumbled the ball with him. Hard to read.
Roch, you have either keened up or somebody there has a bull whip. Thanks for all the posts.Change is as good as a rest!
Good morning Roch!
I'm sorry but I got into the classroom on the third bell after watching Michael Phelps orbit the moon and made it back in one trip faster than the Orioles pitchers hit, walk, and pitch their way around in a single inning.
So, is it feasible to see Bergesen getting his shot in Penn's slot in the rotation? And who replaces Sarfate? And, when is Albers coming back!? He's not considered above average by standards, but boy, we really need him back.
Too close to retard isn't it...
F Hank
Brian Matusz , IF you read this blog as you claim, drop the ML contract demand... is that the major sticking point? If you are as good as you think or as advertised, you won't need it now will you? That "golden parachute" is for weenies & probably overrated with 1st round bonus $$.
If this doesn't convince you... let me lay two other words on you that might make you think more long term about your career & trust your abilities.... Adam Loewen. Look what that sort of contract did for him....
How good really is Brian Matusz? I know that he was the best pitcher in the draft, but I don't much about him.
P.S. I get extra-credit! (Shin-Soo Choo Baseball Card)
Roch,
I am really hoping they pull the Matusz signing off. Everything that I have heard and read makes him sound like the Pitching version of Weiters in this draft. I think the Weiters pick has worked out so far? With that said I also wouldnt give any player drafted a Major league deal unless their name is Ken Griffey Jr.
On another note...whats up with sweet Lou's arm...I know he has a strong arm but last night he threw worse than Mike Devereaux!
"I don't feel tardy."
High bob!
We were talking about Matusz at the Hangout last night. The consensus was that anything over 3.5 to 3.75 mil is too much. And NO to a major league deal. You would think his agent would be aware of the Loewen situation.
Guess it's a good thing we never signed Pavano. Or Zito. Or Hampton, or any free agent pitcher. Their shelf life isn't as long as position players. Doesn't make sense to pay out huge Confederate money to someone that can't make the war.
I wonder if Roberts would want the pick signed if it was a second baseman?
My bet is the O's starter gives up 4 runs in the first tonight. Was a good bet the last 3 nights.
Bring up some of the pitchers from Bowie and Norfolk. They can probably hold teams to less than 4 in the first.
There, my grumbling is over. Until there are more errors, 4 run 1st innings, or blown leads. Wonder what the over/under is on that?
http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Atv1de9SDUGbYDotlp0ilnIRvLYF?slug=jp-aviles081208&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
to bad we didn't pick this guy up in the rule 5 draft instead of bierd.
Does giving Matuz a major league contract just mean they have to bring him to the majors within a certain amount of time or lose him to free agency, and, once they do they cannot option him back without putting him through waivers? If so, I am not sure it's such a big deal, but I also am not sure it's necessarily in the kid's best interest. What makes him so special that he shouldn't go through the same process as other top pitching prospects? As others have pointed out, Loewen's probably perhaps best illustrate that particularly for pitchers this just isn't a good idea.
Good News on Chris Ray. Hopefully, he will return with a somewhat less violent delivery.
Roch, back to your previous post and Olson. I know he's been a favorite of yours and obviously of Dave Trembley as well due to the fact that he remains here despite ugly results and any real sign of progress. Here are his numbers.
In his career he has pitched in 27 games(7 last year and 20 this) with a 6.46 ERA. In 20 starts this year he has a 6.06 ERA with a WHIP of 1.67.
More telling is what he has done in his last ten games. In 50 and two-thirds innings he has given up 43 runs. That's an ERA of 8.43. In his last two starts he has an ERA of 10.38 and a WHIP of 2.31.
No matter how you look at it, those numbers are ugly and do not belong in the majors. He's actually regressing, instead of progressing. Doesn't anyone in the organization see this? Were Liz and Burres this bad? Would Andy Mitchell, Brad Berguson, Jason Berken, Hayden Penn, or David Hernandez be this bad given the opportunity?
Trembley hit the nail on the head when he said the key to last night's game was the inability of Olson to get the third out in the first inning. How many times has he done this? He lacks command. Each game he's wild and high out of the stike zone. Invariably he hits someone and has a wild pitch or two. When he does come in the strike zone he gets hit with regularity.
He's had plenty of opportunity, it's time to try someone else.
What's the problem with giving Matusz a major-league contract? Many scouting reports have said that his offspeed stuff is so good, he's probably going to dominate in the minors and move quickly. It's not like he's a high schooler; I would think two years in the minors, tops.
Top-5 college picks get MLB contracts all the time. I don't see why this would be a stciking point.
Ray, JPA, Brian, and others, you make good points about fundamentals. It has been evident even before the season started that there are veterans on this team who just aren’t fundamentally sound baseball players. It’s unpleasant to see the younger homegrown guys struggle in this area, but it’s even worse when it’s guys who’ve been around for a decade. You would hope they would at least not make so many dumb mistakes. There’s enough evidence, though, to suggest that’s just the kind of players they are and they aren’t going to change.
Guthrie obviously is our best starter. Just how much does he help himself by fielding his position well? I’m sure there are notable exceptions, but it seems the good starting pitchers often are also good fielders too even if they aren’t necessarily Gold Glove level. You look at someone like D. Cabrera and just think, if you can’t get the ball over plate, you don’t have control, and you can’t field your position, why would anyone ever think you’re a future ace?
I guess Matusz is not as signable as we were led to believe, if he’s holding out for a major league contract. Not signing him is not good—Brian Roberts is right, you’ve got to sign him. It’s bad from both a PR standpoint as well as adding quality young talent to the farm system. The club takes a step back in their rebuilding plans if he fails to sign, particularly if this guy is as close to being a major league pitcher as we’re being told.
Dave T - Note I said a few games off. One day is for rest. Three or four sends a clear message to everyone and states that the manager is in charge!
When you look at history, are any of these free agent pitchers worth the money? Don't the majority of them break down? You can look at an exception like Mussina, but how does a GM decide when MLB really doesn't know from a guy's motion if a pitcher will last the duration of the contract?
I look at Billy Beane. He saved so much money and time by not even attempting to sign Mulder, Zito and Hudson? I don't know which contract will turn out to be worse -- Zito or Mike
Hampton. Because the Giants will probably eat a lot of the contract when they pull the plug on Zito in either '09 or '10.
I hope McPhail remembers this before the O's think of signing Sheets or Sabathia. Let the Yankees go through a Pavano-type situation again.
If Matusz can get 3 first inning outs before the other Os starters on oooh-oooh-oooh so many occasions, then I say give him the equivalent of 10% of just one of Mikey Phelps' endorsements. Or maybe 20% of a deal that Mike's mom will probably get.
Yeah, I don't want the Orioles to give out any more ML deals. While Matusz, being a college guy is significantly further along in his development and should have no problem with finding his way to the majors within the four alloted options, it is NOT a good move for the organization. He'd have to be placed on the 40 man roster immediately and would be one less player that the Orioles can protect in the Rule 5 draft...for an organization in the serious stages of rebuilding EVERY player counts. Hopefully, if that is the sticking point Matusz backs off, because I don't see the organization going for it and I can't say that I blame them.
I won't lie, I've totally morphed into a "Phelps Phan"... minus the creepy larger-than-life posters on the wall and jumping around all spastic-like.
It doesn't look good for a rebuilding team to waste their first round pick and not sign him. I agree with B-Rob on this one.
I really hope we get the kid.
Hey Roch,
Can you do a little 2007/2008 comparison at this point in the season both years? W-L record, team ERA, batting average, BBs, fielding percentage. Let's see how a rebuilding year compares with the jumbled mess called we lovingly called "2007 Season". It would be interesting.
Roch,
If Montanez is good this year, who will get the starting left field job next year? Reimold, Montanez, Scott
May be if Millar goes,
Huff can start at first, Scott at Dh, and Lou and Nolan can compete for left field, and whoever wins it will be the starter and loses it will be the 4th outfielder.
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The early favorite is Scott, with Reimold starting at Triple-A Norfolk. - Roch
Roch -
Been thinking about the recent shots fired at Trembley for not laying down the law with some of his veterans for not displaying the basic fundamentals of the game or just playing out the string.
I believe some players on this team are playing out the string. This organization has not exhibited any pride in playing the game right, until MacPhail got here. We obviously had little or no teaching/preparation throughout our minor league system. We had a FO that took the rent a player approach, and all it got them was players who had limited interest from other teams, who were winding down their own careers. So what did MacPhail address first last off season? Restructuring the organization, and putting a solid coaching foundation in place to create an environment on instruction & developing skills that got most of these kids drafted. You don't fix a broken organization in one sweep. And I firmly believe there will be additional changes within the farm system.
So, while we continue to rebuild our farm system, we need to get out of the bad contracts which both MacPhail and Trembley are strapped with. This off season I suspect will address some of the current players playing out the string. Either through low impact trades, with minimal return (just to get out of those deals, or kicking in some cash to assist another team in taking this deadwood off our roster) or flat out release. I see Mora and Huff likely returning. So be it. Payton & Millar will be gone. And if we add the names of R. Hernandez & Walker to that mix, it's a major step in the right direction.
Lastly, it's up to MacPhail & Trembley to decide on what pieces to add this off-season, to put their team out there. I think Trembley will handle it better, but perhaps Andy needs to remind him that he is the manager, and if he needs to lay down the law, then so be it. Dave has a good reputation as a manager, he just needs to re-evaluate his first full season in the show, and make some adjustments. That comes with experience.
So if my boss ever complains that I am tardy for work, I am immediately contacting the ACLU to protest. And how come no one complains about Coffee Nips?
roch, this front office drives me crazy. sign matusz and stop all the run around, pay the guy what he is worth for gods sake..tired of this teams problem of signing pitchers, but signing usless old washed up players to fill holes. lets see what we have, guthrie is all luck because he has stayed healthy. cabrera, is a bumb and should be ran off the team instead of waiting for him to blossom for another 4 or 5 years. olson, couldn't get my 5 year old daughter out. burres, another piece of garbage. penn, after waiting 4 or 5 years still has done absolutely nothing. need i say more, looks like this team needs all the pitching help it can get what do you think about or lovely pitching staff?????
Look, if Brian Matusz is a normal person, there's no way he going to give up playing on a major league farm system at the beginning of next year -- he probably wouldn't start any games this year at this point -- to play in college again over a "few" million dollars.
Matt Wieters backed down at the last moment last year because he didn't want to go back to Georgia Tech. My guess is Matusz pulls the same thing. Where would you want to be pitching in April next year: on the Frederick Keys as a promotion waiting to happen or go back to San Diego State?
Matusz will sign. It may be at 11:59 p.m. on Friday, but he'll sign.