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Looking at the list at Shortstop, I would love to see Orlando Cabrera here. His play speaks for itself, and he can hit. I'd love to see the Red Sox (continue to) rue the day they got rid of him.

Roch, Isn't he supposed to be one of the really good guys in baseball?
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Actually, he can be a headache. He didn't make many friends this year by calling up to the press box to complain about the official scorer giving him an error. Tends to come off as selfish. At least that's the word on the street. - Roch

Detroit said they will not pick up Edgar Renteria's option. I would like either him, Furcal or Cabrera. I also heard that Jacobs with the Marlins is available for trade, if we can't get Tex, why not try for him. As far as pitchers, Rich Harden would be a nice addition. Paul Byrd is too much of a soft tosser and gives up too many fly balls for Camden. Derek Lowe would be nice sinker baller kinda like Scott Erickson was here. I actually would like to see Adam Dunn here if we don't get a Jacobs or Tex. I know some don't like his strikeouts, but he walks alot and 35 homeruns sounds good to me. Let Huff play first, Dunn DH. This is just my opinion though.

Re: OCabrera
Roch, Isn't he supposed to be one of the really good guys in baseball?
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Actually, he can be a headache. He didn't make many friends this year by calling up to the press box to complain about the official scorer giving him an error. Tends to come off as selfish. At least that's the word on the street. - Roch

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Thanks for the correction. Guess I was still thinking about that LA Times article that said he was one of the few players to regularly stop and talk to the woman who does the team's laundry. (I think the article also implied it was the least he could do since he completely covers his uniform in pine tar)

Some combination of Byrd, Dempster, and Garland would be great for the starting staff. Can Nick Punto play shortstop? Of all the middle infielders available, he's the one who intrigues me the most. That list of shortstops is underwhelming.

Roch - I posted this in an earlier blog entry of yours but it might have got lost. Can you get some good updates on how Adam Loewen is doing in the instructional league. They've played at least a weeks worth of games already, so some stats would be great! I know everyone is pulling for him.

Totally go for Pavano-- better late than never, right? Would not mind rolling the dice on Lowe but he will have enough offers to turn us down. Byrd, ehhh. What does that really accomplish? He's like a more grizzled Burres. Is Garland worth a flier? I didn't follow him much this year.

John Parrish from Seattle?? Didn't we just face him when Toronto was here??? I know he went to Seattle before Toronto-how up to date is this?

Roch,
Of the SS free agents, Izturis is the best at fielding the position, isn't he? He looks like an affordable and very steady veteran to have at the position while the Os develop a young SS or acquire one in a trade.

Izturis is a singles hitter, who will hit around .260, but that would be just fine because the runs he would save in the field. And he'll only be 29 next season.

As long as he's healthy, the only SS on that list I'd be interested in would be Furcal. Otherwise I say stick with Castro, give a spot on the bench to Fahey. Then, depending on how Blake Davis or Miclat do in the minors, give one of them a shot midseason. With Cabrera's price tag, age, and propensity to cause turmoil, I'd stay away. Maybe if that was our major need you pay out for him and take a chance, but starting pitching is by far our most important need. That's where you put the money.

As far as SPs, I've never been impressed with Byrd. If we're going to pay for an aging pitcher, I'd be very disappointed if we went after anyone not named Mussina (provided he plays at all of course). What about Dempster -- do we go after him? I wouldn't mind Garland, Lowe or Sheets either.

The question I have about the whole free agent market though is do we know to what extent Angelos is able/willing to open his checkbook? Has he given Andy a spending range? Does he have the capacity and desire to shell out for 2 to 3 proven starters? Given our desire to build our SP staff through the minors, what is the wisdom behind signing 2 to 3 SPs in this range. Even if you can have short-term contracts, won't it cost $30-40 million/year for a couple of starters like these?

I assumed something must be up with Cabrera changing teams as often as he has for as good as he is. It's a shame because I've always liked him ever since he was an Original Shorebird back in year 1 when they were affiliated with the Expos. Given the organizational depth (or lack thereof) at the position, and his age, he's probably not a great fit right now anyway. Overall other than a handful of top flight pitches, this seems like a pretty weak FA class. Maybe the better solution is the trade route. Any insight on what the Mets might be doing after yet another meltdown? I've heard from one so-called expert that they have to blow-up the team and move some combination of Wright, Reyes, and Beltran and another who says no they will stand pat with that group another year.

Only one I know I want on the O's off the FA Market is Teixeira. Make it so!

Roch, Paul Byrd? Seriously? Vs the AL East this year he had '08 ERAs of:

5.50 vs NYY (6.86 from '05-'07)
4.86 vs Toronto (6.06 from '05-'07)
DNP vs TB (5.35 from '05-'07)
0.00 vs Boston (3.94 from '05-'07)

Bargain basement shopping again this offseason will not bring in 2 million people to the park. And I do not see a 38 year old pitcher as helping the rebuilding cause much either. But w/e any pitcher they sign via Free Agency will end up being a bad one.

Sign Furcal! Get the O's 100 SBs at the top of the order. Speed never slumps.

Roch,

I read yesterday that Angelos has basically given MacPhail a blank check. ( Jeff Z's article ) If we assume this is true, do you think MacPhail will take advantage of that and add Tex and AJ (and another starter, possibly a SS) or do you think he stays with the development through the farm system? Because with what I'm hearing at OH and friends I've talked to I don't think many O's fans are going to be very happy with a patchwork attempt. Your opinion?
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MacPhail can spend, but wisely. And I'm not sure $15 mil for a pitcher and $200 mil for a first baseman is considered wise in this org. - Roch

You have to go after Tex first and foremost...then extend BRob....bring in Cabrera for 2 yrs, the guy has won at every level since T-Ball....then beg Moose to retire an O and give us 15 wins 180+innings.....hope C Ray is healthy....hope that Baez is not....release Walker and Lazy Ramon......and and and and ....different off season same song we've sung before just different words

Not many terrific options given that the big name, most desirable, players will go to contenders. Both NY teams will be spending big this winter, esp. for pitching.

So it figures to come down to leftovers. And who they go after also depends on any trades the O's make. If they keep Roberts, Huff @ 1B and Scott, all they need is a SS and 1-2 starters who will sign short contracts (unless A.J. does decide to "come home") to let the kids develop further. Otherwise, they'll need to spend on more position players to fill the holes to be repectable, assuming they only get prospects in return.

Lowe, Penny, if cut loose, Garland and even Pavano would improve the rotation and not "break the bank". Actually, almost any of them would since it ended so poorly.

Roch,

I have a question at the end I would like you to answer.

Since you’re asking for my Christmas List, here goes:

First Basemen

MARK TEIXEIRA LAA
If he REALLY wants to play here I think there can be a contract that both sides can live with.

Second Basemen

We’ve got as good as we will be able to get. Would four years at 40 mil get it done?

Shortstops

RAFAEL FURCAL LAD is a good patch for a year or two; however, I would rather trade for a young stud and develop the future.

Third Basemen

I could live with Mora for another year even if we only get 80% of what he gave us this year. Ian Stewart might be available from Colorado; however, it would take Jeremy Guthrie to get him and I wouldn’t make that trade at this point.

Catchers

Obviously, MATT WEITERS is the future of this club and Ramon Hernandez has worn out his welcome. If the FO can (or is willing to) unload his contract, then we would need to pick up a catcher that would be capable of starting at least 100 games if Weiters is not ready to play as soon as we would like.

My first choice would be GREGG ZAUN * TOR even if it meant we would have to buy his contract from Toronto. IVAN RODRIGUEZ NYY would also be a good choice if he were willing to accept a back up role. JASON VARITEK BOS presents a VERY intriguing option if he is willing to sign a contract that clearly describes him as a back up. Can you imagine one Georgia Tech switch hitting catcher mentoring another?

Outfielders

ADAM DUNN ARZ as a DH ONLY if we can’t sign Texeria.

P.S. If ANYONE suggests Manny Ramirez LAD, I will find you and TP your house.

Starting Pitchers

A.J. BURNETT TOR (may opt out) would be a GREAT pickup IF he is willing to sign here for 4 years at about 13 to 14 mill per year. After that I would choose JON GARLAND LAA (no more than two years guaranteed), DEREK LOWE LAD (no more than two years guaranteed), MIKE MUSSINA NYY (a one year contract with an option year that guarantees with innings pitched). The last four:

Mike Hampton * ATL
Carl Pavano NYY
Brad Penny * LAD
Randy Wolf HOU

would be one year contracts only (with an option year that guarantees with innings pitched) in an effort to catch someone who wants to rebuild their career.

My preference would be to sign two of the first four QUALITY pitchers listed above and trade for a third. Scott Olsen LHP may be a good choice as the Marlins may be willing to move his contract because of arbitration.

Relief Pitchers

I think we will have enough talent to fill the bullpen next year; however, IF you could get a KERRY WOOD CHC for a two year contract, I would sign him so that all of the other pitchers would be able to work in a set up role. What a bullpen THAT would be.

Roch, I was under the impression that Javier Vazquez of the White Sox was a free agent this winter. Do you have the resources to find out what his contract status is?

People say $200 million for Tex to focus on the financial commitment. The deal would be around $20 million per season for a decade. The O's can afford 20 million in payroll per season if it means getting better and younger. High risk, high reward. It is only a handicap if you have limited funds to spend. Tex at $20 million may not be poor spending, particularly if he is a substantial upgrade at first and a cornerstone of the organization. Twenty million more per season doesn't even put us close to the big boys. How many world championships has Oakland or Minnesota won recently despite being our model of success?

Now if you were guaranteed to spend that money on a front line pitcher like CC or Sheets (though his injuries are worrisome)-- that should be the real debate. Realistically, I see us doing neither as usual.

Roch,
What are the chances of getting Harden?
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Tough question. Depends how much they're willing to spend. But isn't that always the issue? - Roch

For so many years, O's fans have talked about rebuilding the organization. That mentality is finally in the FO, and now O's fans are talking about trying to sign top-flight FAs, which was the bane of our existence for so many years! Yes, we need a few SPs to plug some holes, but can we seriously expect a CC or a Sheets to sign with the current baltimore orioles? These guys are in it to win championships and we are not there yet! I think that after another year of bringing along our AA and AAA guys, we can start talking about signing the likes of these players. As one person pointed out, Tex at $20 mill might not be bad money, especially given the hometown connection, but after 10+ years of terrible decisions, and a desire for organizational rebuilding, we have to be really, really careful not to back into the same old corner (i do think tex is a different signing then all those other terrible FA signings).

This organization is headed in the right direction, but we are going to lose!!!! Yes, it is more frustration due to the decade of losing previous to this, but at least now we have an eye to the future. To be honest, I am really happy with the year we had, all things considered. I actually expected less!

After all that, here's my wish list in no particular order:
- Moose on a one-year contract with a mutual option (the prodigal son returns!)
- Trade b-rob (yea, it hurts to say) for a ML-ready SS prospect (Hardy?), and a top-level AAA second baseman with some arms to boot (we should get lots in return for an All-Star).
- Extend Markakis (8 years?)
- At least one second-tier FA SP to hold the place for our young guns
- Zaun or Pudge to work with Wieters
- Despite my earlier comments, a smart Tex signing would be awesome (i think he would play for the hometeam that would be competitive in 2 years - he could put his stamp on the team, something he hasn't had the chance to do elsewhere).

In the end, I trust Andy to do what he sees best for this organization.

To the guy who suggested getting Adam Dunn (an outfielder) off of free agency: are you crazy? We could have 5 outfielders already next year (montanez, markakis, scott, jones and nolan reimold). We wont need another outfielder for a long time! Best of all, all these outfielders are good and cheap, except Markakis if he gets the money he deserves! Leave those unneeded and overpaid free agents for the big boys to blow a lot of there money on.

Also, if we're talking about signing a backup free agent catcher, I vote Pudge over Zaun any day. Everyone loves a hall of famer! Plus Pudge is one of the best, Zaun, on the other hand, is not.

There are not any great position player options in the FA market.

Teixeira is by far the best, but for 10 years...I would NOT make that deal. Maybe 5-6 years with options, but I cannot see locking in any player for 10 years.

I believe we need to find a young SS that we can trade for...none of the FA SS's make sense for this team -- maybe Furcal, but even that is not a very good fit.

As for pitchers...hey, I see there is some Trachsel guy available (now Roch, I thought you said he would end up with some other team before the season was over) :-)

Pitcher are a lot tougher -- some good names, but we have little chance of landing any of the best. Mussina would be interesting, but sounds like he is going to retire. I am not convince Burnett would be money well spent...He will be 32 before the season starts and although he had a good (not great) year this year, he;s WHIP, ERA, and BAA were all higher then his career averages.

Going to be tough...

Stocking up on names from this list means stopping the rebuilding process about one year into it. Yes, the O’s could afford to do some serious shopping here, but we know what happens if they do so and it doesn’t work: more shopping the next year, and internal player development becomes less a priority. Maybe they’ll even deal some of their rebuilding pieces for some established veterans. After all, they would just be a player or two away.

And if they don’t get the big names, they’ll sign the lesser names. Maybe Teixeira ends up with the Yankees for $20 million a year, and some other names go other places. Well, look, there’s Rich Aurilia for maybe $5 million a year, or Nomar Garciaparra for maybe $7 million a year (he can kill the ball when he’s healthy!). These guys might be okay, particularly playing in the AL, and they won’t cost that much money.

It’s fun to discuss free agents, but (cue my broken record) the club should stick with the rebuilding and build a long-term winner. Given the last 11 years and the pitiful ending of 2008, the club won’t have a choice because the big names aren’t going to come here and sign their talent into obscurity the way Miguel Tejada did a few years back (though I’m sure the Aurilias and Garciaparras will sign on). Teixeira I’m sure would like to play in his hometown, but he’s now in the postseason for the first time ever; is he willing to give that up for the foreseeable future to play close to home? Sabathia carried the Brewers to their first playoff appearance in 26 years and right now he's probably riding a serious high; is he willing to give that up to play for a fifth place club?

Extend the good young players they have, and extend or trade Brian Roberts. Focus on developing players from within, and correct what seem to be systemic franchise problems (pitching injuries, inability to throw strikes, etc.). Maybe you sign stopgap measures at shortstop and for a starting pitching spot or two. Once you’ve got a core of developed players that is part of a team that shows some standings progress, go after the available stars that could put you over the top. It gets easier to do once you start moving up (and it might be awhile before we do move up).

this is where i will happily play my "girl card"... if some of these guys listed were DFA'd/released/kicked to the curb earlier by the teams next to their names... and then played the remainder of their season in indy ball... why do they get listed with their previous MLB team? maybe this list was compiled early, no wait, griffey is listed with the CWS, so no.
stupid minor details, i know, but i'm just curious. it's the stupid minor details that make everything else fall into place.
like the orioles pitching. throwing strikes... meh, minor detail. but look how everything else works out when they DO! okay unless they are professional bp-tossers whose name rhymes with Frian Furres. just sayin'...

My fellow bloggers,

This is my Off-Season shopping list. Provided Angelos does give Andy MacPhail complete control and financial power.

First Basemen
Mark Teixiera

Second Basemen
Brian Roberts - EXTEND HIM!

Third Basemen
Melvin Mora - we will be fine with his production for the next year or so. He had a blazing second half and really did well in RISP situations. He needs to start hot at the start, though, to continue this hot streak

Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera - Okay, people have been talking about how he has been a nuisance, and if he would be a disturbance in the clubhouse. Look, our guys are the best bunch of teammates. And, remember, sometimes a team may do so well because of cohesiveness, and others may not because there are too many bad influences. We all know that our team has really had a good influence on each other, and if Orlando comes in, they will all know how to integrate him into their group, and if he's gonna play in another stadium, another place, and away from Chicago, he might feel rejuvenated and feel like he can play at a higher level than he ever did before. And we all know how he can play defense and he has put up some good numbers in past years.

For all of this, I would sign him at a one-year contract, with an option for the next year. I say this because he's 33, and doesn't really fit in our rebuilding plan. But he is the best option we have for power, defense, and average. He's batted almost .300, and while he hasn't shown up with the home runs, he can certainly hit several of them.

We can also try to pick up Rafael Furcal, and he knows how to play as well, and he has been on several playoff teams, and he's on one currently (Dodgers), so he has that experience. I would give him the same contract I would give Orlando. Rafael is also 30, three years younger than Orlando, so he may make better sense for our re-building plan. I would give both offers to both men, and see which one would like to come.

Catcher
Matt Wieters. Enough said.

Outfielders
Adam Jones and Nick Markakis are our center and right fielders, respectively, forever. And, in this case, EXTEND NICK MARKAKIS!!!!!

For the left fielder, I would still like Luke Scott there, but if Kevin Millar leaves, he could be our DH. Provided Mark Teixiera does in fact come, he would be playing first, and that leaves Aubrey Huff without a position. So we could just leave Luke at left, and play Huff at DH, and Mark at first.

But, if for some reason, Millar leaves, and Mark doesn't come here, I would have Huff play first, and have Luke play left.

These are the scenarios I have thought of. Of course I hope we have the first one happen.

Starters
This is our BIGGEST thing to do. We have to have at least two veterans, who do know how to pitch. And they can let Garrett Olson and Radhames Liz go into the minors or the bullpen.

If I had my choices for these starters, I would sign Ryan Dempster, because I just like that funky windup he has, and he has had a really good year with the Cubs, and I would slot him second.

For my Ace, I would go hard after AJ Burnett (geographic ties.....), and also try to see if we can sign Rich Harden (I know he has an option but he has a power fastball and knows how to use his pitches for strikes).

For a third pitcher, if needed (and it is needed), I would go after Jamie Moyer, because he is a veteran by every sense of the word, and he could teach our youngsters how to pitch as well. He's a BETTER teacher than the other veterans we have had in the past (Kris Benson, Steve Traschel, etc).

So my rotation would be this:

AJ Burnett/Rich Harden
Ryan Dempster
Jamie Moyer
Jeremy Guthrie
Daniel Cabrera/Liz/Olson (whoever wins the job in spring training)

Relievers
We have a bunch of guys

George Sherrill, Chris Ray, Jim Johnson, Randor Bierd, Lance Cormier, Matt Albers, Brian Bass, Jim Miller, Bob McCrory, Kam Mickolio, and so on

We don't need to sign anybody. Let these guys battle for jobs in spring training and let the bullpen shake itself out for the slots

BUT --- if we had to sign a couple of guys, I would like to sign Kerry Wood or Juan Cruz. Both are fire throwers and can throw for strikes. Both have had great years.

OF COURSE, I know relievers are volatile and can have either a bad or great year. But these guys have good reputations now. I would sign either one for a year with an option.

That is my Off-Season shopping list. What do you think, Roch?

As a rebuilding club, I'd think it will make a big difference what free agents AREN'T offered arbitration by their clubs. Don't lose the draft picks to sign patches. Does Burnett fit that bill? If he opts out of his deal, does that make him a FA that can be signed without draft pick compensation?

The O's won't lose their top 5 pick if they sign a top line Free Agent. Its protected.

I also keep seeing people saying that they should keep with the rebuilding. Which I agree with. But signing Teixeira is a part of that. No Oriole 1st Baseman in the minors is even close to Major League ready. Millar is not the answer. Sure the 20 HR 72 RBI seem fine. But the fact is he was a .717 OPS 1B. Which ranks 23rd of the 24 1st basemen that qualified. But unlike the 24th guy Millar is not a 23 yr old prospect.

Also do not say Huff can play 1B. Because as a rebuilding team he is the O's biggest trade chip. Especially with a reasonable contract. A .300 30 HR 100 RBI guy that can play 1B/3B and DH for only $8 mil? That should help the rebuilding process.

Oh and I thought this was interesting:

Mora's Average with Runners in Scoring Position:
2008 - .360
2007 - .269
2006 - .306
2005 - .255
2004 - .323
2003 - .308
2002 - .227
2001 - .233
2000 - .256

Looks like from 2004-2007 he hit well with RISP pretty good every other year. So next year does not bode well.

Okajima would be a nice addition to the 'pen.

I know we have a plethora of OF's, but what is Rocco Baldelli's asking price? Can you imagine an OF of Markakis, (a healthy) Baldelli and Jones? Very few fly balls would drop and a lot of runs would be scored. You can DH Luke, and have Montanez / Reimold serve as the #4 OF.

I like Burnett at $10-$12M, not $15M. I like Tex at $16M, not $20. None of those SS's excite me. I'd explore the trade market or resign Castro and sure up the D.

Question to all of your participants- when do you see the Orioles getting a leader? Don't see one now. Every championship team has one. Or, are you satisfied with Mr. Angelos's comment that he is willing to field a "competitive" team. Next year's salary forcasted to be around $75M. I do not see Hernandez, Mora, Huff moving. Each recent manager has been happy to field a bunch of players that "try hard". I think this is the best you will see for quite some time.