Strategy question
Before getting to it, and I'll have to wipe a little more sleep from my eyes and stretch out a lower back that's been sending sharp, painful signals down my left leg - probably from being hunched over my laptop 18 hours a day - I was wondering if anyone had a prediction for tonight's NFL opener?
I took the Giants over the Redskins and gave them 4 1/2 points, despite concerns about their pass rush and the usual Super Bowl hangover.
I love this time of the year. Pennant races, NFL and college football starting up...it's a beautiful thing.
If only there was a way to keep the temperatures above 70 degrees until spring training.
Anyway, onto my strategy question: I decided that Dave Trembley shouldn't be the only manager second-guessed at School of Roch. It comes with the job, and that includes the guys who patrol the minor league dugouts.
Double-A Bowie trailed Akron by a run in the bottom of the ninth inning last night in Game 1 of the Eastern League playoffs. With runners on first and second, and none out, manager Brad Komminsk ordered Nolan Reimold to lay down a sacrifice bunt. Reimold, who cleared the left field scoreboard with a home run in the first inning, successfully moved up the runners, but Akron intentionally walked the next batter, Matt Wieters, to load the bases.
Bowie scored the tying run on a force play at second base, with Jeff Nettles beating the throw to first, but couldn't put away the Aeros, who won in 12 innings.
On the surface, the decision to bunt with Reimold at the plate makes perfect sense. Put two runners in scoring position with one out. It's almost automatic. However, Reimold and Wieters are your best hitters, and you've taken the bat out of their hands. Everybody knew that Wieters wasn't going to get a pitch to hit.
If you're calling the shots, do you follow Komminski's strategy or let Reimold swing away, figuring if he can't deliver a hit, Wieters just might?
By the way, Reimold has homered in three straight games, and four of five, giving him 26 on the year if you're counting the playoffs. He's scored at least one run in six consecutive games.
I mentioned last night that Bowie pitching coach Mike Griffin was ejected in the ninth inning. Baysox reliever Gerardo Casadiego served up Wyatt Toregas' tie-breaking home run and drilled Brandon Pinckney with his next pitch. He started jawing at the Aeros' dugout, and Griffin went to the mound to calm him down. Unfortunately, nobody calmed down Griffin, who was tossed by plate umpire Mark Lollo.
Griffin declined comment on the incident after the game.
Roch - You answered your own question. By bunting Reimold, you took the bat out of the hands of your two best hitters. What are the chances Earl Weaver would have bunted Frank Robinson with Boog Powell in the ondeck circle?
Hey Roch,
My only managerial stint was T-ball and stressful strategy choices like these drove me out of the job after just 2 years.
The Book is about improving your odds, not guaranteeing outcomes. For some managers, it's their gospel of decision making and controls their every move. For those managers, and I include Trembley here, it's a no brainer. Bunt the guys over. It usually works out.
But in retrospect, it looks pretty stupid to have taken the bat out of the hands of both Reimold and Weiters. I would have let them both hit. So would Earl Weaver. To those managers, there's a few chapters in The Book that they don't entirely agree with.
Baseball is way too dynamic and fluid to allow yourself to be chained to a template of decision making. Sometimes, you need to forget The Book and rely instead on a little instinct and guts.
Unless it's the Brandon Faheys or Juan Castros of the baseball world at the plate, maybe you just let 'em swing and see what happens. For the most part, I truly hate small ball.
They used that logic in the movie Little Big League when they were testing the kid on his baseball savvy. He would have let them swing away to avoid the walk and possible double-play and not take the bat out of his two best hitters. I agreed with it then, and I agree with it now.
Roch -
Not sure if you heard this or covered it in another posting but there are some rumors down here in Richmond, VA that Bowie may be moving here since the Braves AAA team left.
I am usually on the side of bunt but iin this case it is the one situation where it is justified to go the other way. Too often though, the result can be Reimold hits into double play and Wieters flys out, inning over and opportunity gone. If Reimold lays off the low slider or sinker, then the hit away looks a lot better.
In respect of the Orioles...isn't this great ? I just returned from therapy and have been diagnosed as masochistic.
You don't give up outs.
6:50 AM???
I'll take the Skins, as Campbell will have all day to throw to Moss and Cooley, and Betts/Portis will keep the Giants off guard.
In regards to your back, might I suggest relaxing while using the laptop? I dunno if you're blogging from home or an office, but if you're at home, you can stretch on a couch and still blog. It would probably ease some of those pains. Just be sure not to rest the laptop on yourself, as that heat can get pretty uncomfortable.
And Reimold has had a pretty good season so far, so why is he being treated like a red-headed stepchild? He's going to turn 25 this October, pretty old for prospect status, and should be part of the roster expansion. It's time to see what this kid can do, because if he isn't called up he could start to rot in the minors.
Reimold is not Frank Robinson, or Boog Powell.......... you have to bunt. Yes they walk Weiters however Nettles has been swinging the bat well lately also. The golden rule.......... you play to tie at home and play to win on the road.
Super Bowl Champs - 31; Redskins - 13
Didn't expect a Little Big League reference but good work Anthony. Managing is not a job for the timid. If the guy after Weiters hits a double and they score 3-4 runs it's okay too. Just with the current O's pitchers, if they execute managing errors are put on the back burner. Unless a manager loses the clubhouse I think they only contribute to a swing of 5-8 games a season max. Granted, that can make a big difference for a contender but we are not in shouting distance of that.
Sounds like that Casadiego kid is learning the "new Oriole way". Lose your composure in a big time situation and then blame someone else for failing to get the job done... the other strategy would be to have someone tell the press that you were probably hurt for a long time and that is the reason for your struggles... yeah, that's the ticket.
On another note, I though Trembley was supposed to be a no-nonsense guy? Why is F-Cab still pitching? Why did Ramon get away with not playing defense for an entire season? If 5 year-olds can learn how adults will respond when they break the rules, I think the O's players are learning that despite the tough talk, consequences are not being enforced (unless of course you are a rookie pitcher then you get sent down in the blink of an eye).
I am still reeling from DT's decision to stubbornly stick to his plan to take Cormier out even though he was flawless and showed no sign of needing o be relieved. The same goes for Sarfate. Add to this his insistence on using walker, I say he convinced me he is not the manager that the Orioles need.
Daytona Boy,
Your instincts are right, unless Castro is the hitter, you do not bunt. Earnshaw Cooke ran the numbers decades ago, you have a better chance of scoring the runner from 2nd with no outs, than of scoring the runner from 3rd with 1 out. While i can't remember the exact numbers, I do remember that it was roughly twice as likely to score from 2nd with no outs. Why baseball managers have never realized this is beyond me. Baseball games are timed by outs, you get 27, that's it. You have to be very careful about giving any of them away.
On a related note, I remember an incident where in a similar situation Reggie Jackson stole second base, and Earl chewed him out in the dugout, because the other team, naturally, walked Lee May intentionally. Once again, taking the bat out of the hands of the very hitter you wanted up there in the first place.
You have to know that with first base open, Wieters is going to get walked. Even if Reimold gets out, you have to roll the dice with your best hitters.
There is another factor involved in the decision: As a MINOR LEAGUE manager, is Komminsk's primary concern to win the game, or to make his players as fundamentally sound as possible before sending them to the next level?
Sounds like Komminsk was following that ridiculous notion of "play to win on the road, play to tie at home." What the heck does that mean, and who came up with such a stupid thing??? Whether you're the home team or the away team, you should always play to win. Komminsk played for the tie last night in that inning, and that's exactly what he got. He also got 3 more innings of play where he didn't end up with one single opportunity setup nearly as perfect as that 9th inning was to win the game.
Speaking of strategy questions, I think Dave Trembley displayed extremely poor strategy yesterday by removing Cormier after three innings and Sarfate after three more.
Cormier threw 32 pitches including 27 for strikes. He could have easily pitched a fourth inning. Sarfate threw 47 pitches in his three innings. He also started as late as mid-August, so he was stretched out. He could have easily gone 5 innings.
Bottom line, the way Cormier and Sarfate were pitching yesterday, you pitch Cormier 4 innings and Sarfate 5. They shut down the Red Sox, and the plane ride home is much happier.
I have enjoyed the job Trembley has done this year, but in this case, for the first time all season, I blame him for the loss.
Roch,you go with your best hitters "no brainer". Last week you asked for a fifth starter and I gave the bullpen by committee. It worked for 6 innings but the manager out smarted himself. Sarfated should be on the hill in the 7th. If he gets in trouble then go for another guy. By bringing in Walker, he changed the speed of the pitcher plus the direction (lefty). It was an entirely different look. The world knows that Walker can't get a lefty out.
The lost goes to Trembly. I remained faithful to the birds all season but for me the season ended yesterday. Enough is enough. The radio is turned off for baseball.
Giants giving the points looks good. Skins stunk it up the last 2 exhibitions and no reason to think they'll change, even with a weaker Giant defense. Which, of course, means that the Skins will kick their butt but I doubt it. Long year for the Skins (yippee). tough division and a so-so QB.
As for the strategy, it is a no brianer with you 2 best bats coming up. Go for it vs. playng small ball. Besides, how often had Reimold bunted before. Couldn't have been asked to do it much so there's no reason to give an out away by asking him to do something that he is unaccustomed to doing.
It's easy to second guess it now. I think usually you wouldn't bunt Reimold because most number 3 hitters aren't good bunters. If he can bunt, then I don't think bunting is a wrong decision. Bases loaded with one out gives you a decent chance to win the game and a very strong chance to tie it--which happened.
Personally, I wouldn't have bunted in that situation. A double play kills you there; a strikeout or pop-up costs you the chance to move the guy to third with less than two outs; but, you do have Wieters coming up. There are so many possible favorable outcomes if he hits away that I think I would have to take a shot. Reimold could ground out weakly to the right side and move the runners over. Reimold could hit a sac fly and move the lead runner to third, in which case Akron is more likely to pitch to Wieters in order to avoid moving the winning run to second. Reimold could get a hit in which case the game may be tied with two guys on and no one out for Wieters. If Bowie hadn't lost in 12, no one would be second-guessing the move. I would not have bunted, but it's certainly defensible to have done so.
The strategy was one of those true toss-ups that come along in baseball. Although I hate the bunt more than anyone, getting the game tied is probably the managers frist priority at home there. So many other factors are involved though, like if I had known the Akron team was going to roll out a guy throwing strikes in the mid-nineties for the next three innings it would have influenced my decision, I don't know either teams personell that well though.
On another note this was the first time I had seen Wieters behind the plate, all the other games he was dh-ing. He is so quiet back there in terms of how he receives the ball. He frames everything in the best possible light for the umpire. That is how catchers like Varitek steal strike calls over the course of a game. For instance, if a pitch is slightly low, he catches it with a firm hand rather than having his glove dragged lower by the force of the pitch as I see Ramon and others so guilty of. In other words, he catches the ball without a lot of moving parts, just hope he can hold up at his size.
Who was it who said "If you play for one run, that's all you'll get".
You don't play to tie, you play to win.