Legends of the fall league
The organizational meetings are wrapping up today. Manager Dave Trembley is heading home, while some front office personnel gather one last time.
You can be sure that people were bemoaning the challenge of competing in the AL East, which is fielding both representatives in the championship series that begins tomorrow night. And neither team had the highest payroll in the division.
The Orioles don't want to spend wildly in the free-agent market this winter, and certainly not on one player, but there's a lot of ground to make up. How much is too much?
I hear that some draft picks from the 2008 class are making a solid impression in the fall instructional league. Third-rounder LJ Hoes, for example, homered in back-to-back games. Xavier Avery (second round) and Greg Miclat (fifth) also have been impressive.
Also, Adam Loewen continues to look comfortable at the plate. He's drawing high marks for his swing and work ethic. If this plan fails, he's going down fighting.
Apparently, Loewen has good bat speed and is making steady contact. I'm keeping my expectations low - always sound advice on a blind date, too - but so far, the results have been encouraging.
Roch, there was some mention of Loewen being sent to the AFL if he impressed (Orioles Hangout Thread). Have you heard anything about this?
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I haven't heard anything lately. I'll ask around. - Roch
Roch,
What is the status of chyore spoone? Will he be ready by spring training?
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Unfortunately, no. He's expected to miss at least half of the 2009 season. - Roch
I don't think the entire problem is being in the AL East. There have been many years of bad decisions. Right now, if the O's stay on the current path of drafting and signing good players that probably means 2 to 3 ML caliber players coming up every year. If they don't sign any type A FA's that doesn't mean they'll never get better, it just means it will take longer. The question is will the fans wait another 2 to 3 years?
Roch, I’d say the O’s can’t make up that ground this offseason. It sucks to be in the AL East, for sure, but they can't change geography and league and they just have to work within it. Even if the O’s have a good team, they still could find themselves in fourth place. Don’t overspend thinking it will happen, but rather work steadily up to it.
JPA: The funny thing about the payroll is that it might go down first once some of the burdensome contracts of the past disappear, and with some wise decisions, the club could be better just maintaining a similar level of payroll (though they could definitely go higher). If they could get Nick Markakis for $6 or $7 million a season for the next 8 years, how wise would that be? Much better than paying guys like Jay Gibbons that kind of cash.
For the O’s, a new model to consider beyond the A’s and Twins has emerged in the Tampa Bay Rays. A very rough look at that organization says they wasted their first five years with aging veterans, castoffs, bad player development, and bad management (sound familiar?), and have only been rebuilding the last four or five years. Barring a rash of debilitating injuries and dumb moves on their part, the Rays should be set for a few years. In the tough AL East, they might not make the playoffs ever year (they did make a 30 game jump this year, which is beyond any reasonable expectation), but they’ll be at least near the running.
The O’s even at their worst probably weren’t as bad as the Rays at their worst. Looking at the O’s now, they look like the Rays did in roughly 2005/2006. Only one major league worthy starter, some promising prospects on the horizon, and a few young position players who have shown they can play. The O’s need to build on that the next couple of seasons like the Rays did. Of course, the X factor in this is the injuries—they need to stop. It’s impossible to assess what they have if they keep suffering debilitating injuries.
Ha. Always knew you were a Jim Harrison fan.
Speaking of Legends, did you hear one of Hugh Hefner's girlfriends broke up with him? Somehow I just can't feel sorry for him.
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99 more and he ties my record. - Roch
CRB
I absolutely agree with you that building within is the best way to build a winner; however, that talent needs the opportunity to properly develop in the minor leagues.
This team has a core of young, quality talent but we have some huge holes at certain positions and no “sure things” in the system to fill those holes. That leaves two choices:
1. Acquire players via FA or trades to fill those position until we can develop that talent
2. Trade off the marketable talent (Roberts, Markakis, Guthrie, Jones) in order to completely restock the farm system
I don’t think the fan base is willing to be patient for option #2.
Free agent contracts are not a bad thing, BAD free agent contracts are a bad thing. Signing two or three decent starters for a year or two (maybe a year longer BUT NO “NO TRADE” CONTRACTS) would allow our pitching prospects to develop at their own pace instead of rushing them.
We have a hole at SS (Rafael Furcal for two years would be a good fit), and 1B (Texeria is a special case and would be a good contract if he is willing to sign the same type of contract that the team would offer as an extension to a franchise player). Other than that we should be patient and make sensible trades. Andy MacPhail clearly understands that pitching is at the core of any good team and I trust his judgment.
Roch - Do you really think Loewen will ever make it back to the bigs as a hitter? Like you my expectations are real low ... practically non-existent.
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It's the longest of long shots, but at least he's prepared to start over and work hard. I wish him the very best of luck. - Roch
Roch,
Where do you see Miclat and Hoes playing next season? Do they make the move to Fredrick? Have we heard anything about Matusz playing int he AFL? Is there any way we'll see Synder playing in Double-A in early '09?
I'm full of questions...and something that doesn't smell great.
Thanks for the great work!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'd think Miclat and Hoes would go to Delmarva. Matusz is in Arizona but hasn't started yet. Snyder should be in Bowie.
Now go grab a shower!
And you're welcome.
I personally believe that shelling out for one top-of-the-rotation starter could yield great rewards. It would bump Guthrie to #2, which is really where he matches up best with the league, and would leave 3 more spots for the likes of Patton, Liz, Penn, Albers, Cabrera, Olson, Bergesen, Hernandez, Tillman, Waters, etc. Surely 3 of those 10 could distinguish themselves enough to make the rotation. (Or am I already drinking the orange kool-aid?)
I know that it's going to be a long, tough road for Adam, but why do we need to keep the expectations so low that he can actually make it back to the majors? I can understand holding off annointing him as the next Alex Rodriguez or even Josh Hamilton... but there are too many teams out there that still have guys like Brandon Fahey, Paul Bako and Ritchie Sexson that float on and off the roster to think that someone as big, strong and overall athletic as Loewen (who was known for his hitting in the past) doesn't have at least a fighting chance to make it back as a bench/platoon type player and potentially work his way up from there.
By the way, nice blog title there, Roch!
Roch,
One more quick question (thanks for answering the last one) how fast can Miclat move through the system if everything goes right (he seems close to a finished product)? Thanks again for all the coverage!
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He's coming out of college, so he could move quickly. But he has to get stronger and continue to develop offensively. And you're welcome! - Roch
roch
I have a question that has nothing to do with this it has to do with the last something in Yankee stadium what was the last bench clearing thing in yankkee stadium.?
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I'm really not sure about that one. I can only confirm the Tino Martinez-Armando Benitez brawl, but I don't know beyond that night. Maybe someone else can bail us out here. - Roch
I don't think the Rays staff will hold up next year, especially as these young guys continue to pile up innings in the playoffs. Young pitchers who dramatically increase their workload get injured the next year, what happened to Fausto Carmona of this year will happen to Matt Garza next year. You can't double your workload from one year to the next without harm. Plus, their bullpen drastically overachieved this year, and there's little reason to think that Percival, Wheeler and the rest will hold up either.
The Jays are in trouble if Burnett leaves, as they've already lost Marcum for all of next year. Their pitching kept them afloat last year, but it probably won't next. Two teams ahead of us that we can leapfrog. And...
The Yankees have as many flaws as we do, and many of their weak defenders--Damon, Jeter, Posada, Cano--are back next year--it's going to take a lot more than Sabathia to fix that team, and if we keep them from getting Texiera they'll be worse next year than they are this year.
We're going to get somebody to play shortstop, but we need to sign Texiera, to prevent the Yankees from sending he and Rodriguez out there as their 3-4 hitters, and we need two solid starting pitchers. Huge expenses, but we've got more money than the Rays, and we've got more money than the Jays. We've got some young guys chugging along, plus next year's #5 pick, which is protected even if we do land a couple free agents.
Spend a little money and this could be the second best team in the division next year.
Anyway, I think there are plenty of reasons for this team to be optimistic, definitely it is not time to extend, not ship off Roberts (and he would be game if we improve our pitching), and certainly not Huff--there's a great example of a free agent signing that looked like crap that paid off this year (a bit late, some might say).
Money will bring in Tex, and once we have him, what pitcher wouldn't like their chances with the lineup we'd be fielding next year, and the defense that would be backing him up would be excellent with Tex instead of Huff daddy at first base. Our starters couldn't be worse than last year, we have reason to be optimistic about Ray rejoining the bullpen and Johnson starting off established at the back end.
Roch,
Are the Orioles going to have to expose Loewen to waivers, and if so, what are the chances someone takes a claim on him?
Keep up the great work.
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Thanks, Dan. The Orioles are counting on teams passing on Loewen for the obvious reasons. - Roch