Doing something with the rotation
The free agency period has started and the Orioles need blah blah blah.
Haven't we covered this already?
At least two starting pitchers, a shortstop who can do more with a bat than apply pine tar to it, a backup catcher if they can do better than Guillermo Quiroz, a right-handed hitting outfielder if Lou Montanez's defense remains a concern (which it does).
At least the market provides some options. Last winter, we completely ignored it in our daily Orioles discussions and focused only on potential trade partners.
During yesterday's Playmakers show on MASN, Tom Davis challenged me to come up with three starting pitchers who realistically could be added to the rotation. The guidelines eliminated CC Sabathia. The Milwaukee Brewers reportedly made a five-year, $100 million proposal and are waiting for a counteroffer.
(I wish somebody would propose to me like that. I wouldn't say, "Gee, I don't know...this is so sudden.")
Davis suggested signing A.J. Burnett for four years (and worrying every day that he'd break down), Jon Garland for three and Mike Mussina for two. That would drop Jeremy Guthrie to No. 4 in the rotation.
Davis believes it's smart to stagger the contract years, as well as the timetables for bringing up the young pitching prospects, so everyone isn't eligible to leave at the same time. Makes sense. We both conceded, however, that Mussina is more likely to retire or stay with the Yankees for one more year.
I countered with Burnett as the No. 1 (and wishing he would settle for three years, but knowing better), Garland (two years with an option) and Paul Byrd (one year with an option). Those are my terms. Doesn't mean they have to like them.
Garland can do better. But people keep saying that about my dates, too. Whatever.
In my world, Guthrie is the No. 2. I'm not dropping him any lower. Not that he particularly cares.
Anyway, I've proven to be a bad GM in the past, but no team has suffered for it yet. I'll throw out the challenge to you. What starters would you add if you're Andy MacPhail, and for how many years? And remember, you can't hand out blank checks.
Roch,
I would say that if I were McPhail I would try to make this rotation happen..
1. Burnett
2. Guthrie
3. Garland(BIG FAN OF GETTING HIM)
4. Livan Hernandez (This guy always eats innings. He's never hurt and has always done well...)
5. Troy Patton/Waters/Albers
I know it will be tought to sign all of those guys but I would be happy with Hernandez and Garland...Burnett will be tough even with hometown draws...
If Mussina comes back to any team, it will be for 3 years. I share your doubt that he'd come here and if he did it would be for a stack of bills higher than his 2007 ERA.
1) Burnett for 4 years, $15 M/yr ($60 million can buy a lot of band aids)
2) Mark Prior, 1 year $1 M with incentives
3) Kerry Wood, 3 years, $10 M/yr for bullpen
4) Dr. James Andrews for 4 years
Maybe Garland and Byrd aren't such bad ideas after all.
A couple of posts back bandy75 made a point that I think many of us support (except the FO). If we get someone like Tex (which is doubtful), we would not need an offensive minded SS. In fact, it is an odd change of philosophy and the only "flip-flop" I have seen in the MacPhail/Trembley tenure. Is that the position from which we need an extra 30 RBI?
Putting the need for an offensive SS on the offseason priority list seems like a smokescreen to cover the areas in which we are likely to come up short (1B/pitching). We did get mentioned on ESPN with the Angels as the main players for Texiera so we might be in the picture. Plus, Anaheim is a dump. (i refuse to dwell on the fact that it is a half hour from some of the best beaches in the country)
rotation:
Burnett
Guthrie
J Johnson (not JASON!)
Liz
Olson/Patton/Albers
Saves money for a certain solid FA acquisition.
Good teams don't use the term "innings eaters" by the way.
MLB
Guthrie
Burnett (4/60?)
Byrd/Pavano (for either 1/15 or 2/25)
Olson
Liz
Penn
Sarfate
Walker
Bierd
Baez
Johnson
Ray
Sherrill
AAA
Tillman (might make it to AAA this year)
Bergesen
Waters
Albers
Patton
Burres
Berken
Bass
Cormier
Cherry
Mickolio
McCrory
Hernandez
Spare parts:
Cabrera (expecting a non-tender)
This makes sense to me, but I'm not sure about options on some of these guys.
Dear Santa,
I'd also like a bike, a pony, an xbox360, and a gold-glove switch-hitting power firstbasemen.
Here is my pithcing wish list:
1. Omar Daal
2. Rick Helling (remember he had one good year one time, maybe he could totally do it again)
3. Aaron Sele
I agree on Garland for 2 + option, and Burnett if we can get him though he might be prohibitively expensive.
I've never liked Byrd, but I do think the FO will go after him. I'd actually rather take a 1yr flyer on Randy Johnson or Pedro instead of Byrd. Getting Mussina for 2 would trump all of these, but I agree its probably either the Yanks or retirement for him. What about taking a risk with Brad Penny? My gambler's instinct for buying beaten down stocks makes me hope the O's go after him; then again, I've always been beaten down badly by my gambler's instinct.
I worry about what Burnett is going to expect given what the MFY's are rumored to be offering Sabathia today (6/150). I'm more concerned with length of contract than dollars, because Burnett will be 32 in January and relies on his fastball. It's been awhile since I've seen a 36 year old starting pitcher throwing 96-97 mph. It's not like he's going to age like Mussina and be painting the black with precision anytime soon (86 walks last year.) Power pitchers break down early, and Burnett's no spring chicken and he's already got a well documented injury history.
Tread lightly with him or you'll regret it in 3 years.
I highly doubt Garland leaves Anaheim, seeing as how he grew up there. That's good for us b/c he's not really that good and figures to get worse. WE can do better.
I can't stand the thought of Mike Mussina back in Camden Yards, but his time frame would seem to matchup with the emergence of one of Arrieta, Tillman or Matusz. I don't like having to give up a draft pick for him, but.... I'd consider it.
I'd kick his tires along with Derek Lowe, Randy Wolf, Ben Sheets and look to trade for another guy like Heilman to give him a shot.
Signing Furcal to me is a no brainer since he won't cost us a pick. Look for a college SS in the draft and hope Grant Green falls to us next June.
After you've addressed the pitching and shortstop, that's when you worry about Teixeira.
Garland is the most likely opportunity. Even Byrd is more in demand but a great choice. Burnet may go for a 2-3 yeatr with heavy incentives for 3rd and 4th years. Both would be the type to teach young talent. Mussina will never teach.
It is without question the starting pitching that is in desparte need of repair(?). More likely the starting staff needs to be found. Last year, the playoffs maybe with the offense we had. Even with the hole at ss we were far better team.
Bring up young talent as middle releif. Get their feet wet in the big league in small situations. This is an example of the O's of old success recipe. Look how Palmer was brought in -Releif. Some of them could come up next year and get good and wet. Yes this means an overload in releif. But may be trades bait will result for 1b or ss.
I would even be open to a cheap trade for Bedard if we can secure confidence in his arm injuries. Seattle is bored with last years results and rebuilding. DCAB maybe a decent bait
Tex is toooooo costly. He is also not going to make the Hugh difference for the money spent.
I think there are some people who can help the O's. However, I will tell you this as a lifetime O's fan...I will completely stop following this team and never set foot in Camden yards if they fail to resign Markakis and lose him to free agency. He represents everything you look for in a player on your favorite team - and he also produces without an ego. I will drop this team so fast, and never look back. This is a joke that they are looking in the market to improve their team while their best players is probably steaming inside. AM can take his principles and rules with him as he destroys the fan base by ignoring the fans interest and focusing too much on "business" - at the end of the day he is running a people business, and they key people are the fans - and he apparently does not recognize this. WAKEUP MCPHAIL!!!!
Hey, what about me? I'm as durable as these free agents everybody wants to throw money at, I only allow an extra half-run per nine innings vs. Byrd or Garland and I work for half the money!
Also, what about signing a couple of retreads to minor league contracts with incentives for making the majors and seeing how they do in Spring Training. We might get lucky. Carl Pavano, Freddy Garcia, Kenny Rogers, etc.
Burnett
Guthrie
Garland
Cabrera
Olson/Patton/Liz/Waters/Retread Vet
That saves money for the pursuit of free agent position players and gives us some depth. Besides, in a year or two, the Young Guns in the minors will push us vets out of the way no matter who you sign.
Doesn't Hayden Penn pretty much have to contribute to the big club this year or be on his way?
In regards to a fellow posters man love for Markakis and the facial hair policy..... Well I am all for it, but within reason. I really don't want to see Aubrey Huff with a full blown clown beard, but a little facial hair on these guys makes all the difference.
Markakis- Yes
Luke Scott - NO!
B-Rob - Hell Yes!
Fahey - NO!
Millar - YES!!!
Guthrie - NEVER!
Roch, Are we the only team with a facial hair policy? I never really noticed it with other teams.
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Hey Jennifer! There are a few others with a similar policy. The Reds had a strict one in place for years that I assume still exists, though I'm not positive. I remember it being an issue years ago when free agents considered signing there. They didn't want to shave. - Roch
"a backup catcher if they can do better than Guillermo Quiroz"
Did they trade Ramon already?
Roch,
Do you think if we could get Burnett, does it eliminate us from Lowe? Lowe should be a little cheaper...
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Burnett is higher on the wish list, for sure. Doesn't sound like Lowe is getting much attention at the moment. But he'd definitely be cheaper. - Roch
I'm going to go the other way on this one. I don't particularly care who they sign. Instead, I'm going to make a list of guys who should NEVER start a game for the Orioles next year:
1. Daniel Cabrera
2. Lion Furres (your boy)
3. Radhames Liz
4. Garrett Olson
5. Lance Cormier
6. Brian Bass
7. Danys Baez (any guy with a plural first name automatically makes the list)
8. Paul Byrd (guy is old which isn't consistent with our youth movement)
9. Mike Mussina (just doesn't make sense for us or for him)
10.Livan Hernandez (we have enough guys who throw mid 80's)
11.Kerry Wood
12.Mark Prior
If none of these guys start for the Orioles next year, we're in really good shape!
We would be idiotic to sign any of those 3 pitchers for that length. WE AREN'T WINNING THIS YEAR! Burnett is not worth the money he will command and isn't going to take a home town discount. Garland is overrated. I wouldn't be opposed to Mussina for a year (or Byrd for that matter), but he isn't gonna take a one year deal to play for us. The simple answer is that we take our lumps in the pitching category for another year while trying to find a few veterans to eat innings this year. Hernandez, Byrd, and Prior are the type of guys we should be going after. Cheap and easily jettisoned if they don't work out. One guy I wouldn't be opposed to going after with a longer deal is Oliver Perez, since he's still fairly young.
The simple answer is that this team is going to finish 5th next year, largely because the teams above us were 4 of the best 5 teams in the AL this year. Don't waste money and block prospects with long term deals to guys who aren't difference makers. People are going to point to the Rays and say anything can happen. Please don't...we aren't in the same ballpark in terms of young talent that can suddenly come together to win. I hold out some hope for 2010 though if we keep drafting well and trading the veterans for guys that might contribute then.
Roch
The contracts I would offer:
Garland 2yrs $22 mil plus club option
Brad Penny 2yrs $2 mil plus incentives
Mike Hampton 1yr $1 mil plus incentives,1yr club option
Garland is just what the O's need as long as all we expect is a starter that can be expected to be a innings eater that keeps us in the game. Penny has the ability to be a solid No.4 in the AL East if he can return to something resembling his former self. Mike Hampton is a cheap recovery project that could yield good results. Hamptons last 9 starts of 08 for the braves he went 2-3 3.72 ERA shows he might have something left in the tank.
I'm against the burnett signing because all his potential greatness aside, when it comes down to it burnett's record shows he is an exceptional .500 pitcher who has trouble logging a full season. the deal burnett is likely to command is wrong for the O's. We're years from serious contention and Burnett is unlikely to be a major contributor when that time comes. Theres nothing we require from burnett that 2 veteran innings eaters can't accomplish for a fraction of the price. Save the money we would spend on burnett and invest it in the draft and save the rest to spend when our pitching prospects have matured and we are within sight of contention.
Roch-
Why doesn't anyone ever mention Jim Johnson in the rotation? Now that Ray will be back as a set-up man, doesn't it make sense to convert Johnson back into a starter. He could be a #2 or #3, you think?
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For now, the club likes him in the role that he's thrived in at the major league level. - Roch
Thinking outside the box..
Randy Wolf (2 years for $12million)
Derek Lowe (3 years for $36 million) - I realize this is dangerous b/c of his age, but a 3.24 ERA and 1.13 WHIP last year at the age of 35 shows he isn't breaking down yet.
A.J. Burnett (4 years $60 million (with 5th option year him for $17 million/ $4 million buy out) - only way hes signing here is a 4 or 5 year contract.
No on Ben Sheets/Mark Mulder/Mark Prior - too many injuries
No on CC Sabathia - showed at the beginning of last year that AL hitters figured him out.
Maybe look for a guy who had some success in Colorado or Texas but who has flown under the radar, preferably from Texas. I hate to see a NL pitcher come to the AL, especially into Camden Yards. Someone who may not blow hitters away, but does not walk them. At this point a pitcher with an ERA under 5 and a whip under 1.4 looks very attractive compared to the 5,6, and 7 ERAs and the 1.7 whips.
What about Mark Prior? Isn't he available? He seems like a low-risk, high-reward type if given the right kind of contract (read: an incentive-laden contract).
What about Mark Mulder? I think he falls in the same boat as Mark Prior. He can have a huge upside and should come cheap since he, too, is injury-prone and has yet to prove himself since being hurt.
Also, what about Ryan Dempster? He came in 5th in the NL Cy Young voting. I haven't heard his name tossed around too much, but then again, I also haven't been paying really close attention to the rumors lately. He seems like a much stronger candidate than A.J. Burnett and I think they both fall into the same class.
Lastly, I'd go after Paul Byrd to fill in the 4 spot.
So, I would like to see this:
1. Ryan Dempster
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Prior/Mulder (either one)
4. Paul Byrd
5. Patton/other prospect in-house
Garland is going to be this years Carlos Silva. His VORP was similar to DCAB. Mussina is on borrowed time. Besides what is the point? Tampa is young and talented. Toronto is very good, and then you have the two giant pigs so adding all this payroll for a possible fourth place finish is nuts. We need to just lose our 105 games and hope to draft a player like AROD in June of 2010.
I've never been a big fan of Burnett and I also think trying to find decent pitching on the FA market is the hardest thing to do in sports (just answered two of Roch's recent questions with one answer). I do support getting a few stop gap type guys for cheap or moderately cheap and seeing what they can do. And this might not be a popular opinion right now, but we have to continue to let the young guys develop. It was hard last year watching Liz and Olson but our future will be with the young guys. So, keeping that in mind and looking at our farm system, I would throw all of the money we have this year at Tex. We have a ton of pitching in the minors and hardly any hitting (Snyder can always be moved to 3B or DH if he makes it to the show).
so here is the contract offers I would make with this rotation in mind:
1. Guthrie
2. Garland - 3 years
3. Byrd - 2 years
4&5. some combination of Olson, Liz, Albers, Patton, Burress, Penn, Waters, Bergessen, Hernandez, Berken.
This might not look to good, but rebuilding is tough. The two bright spots in all of this is that we should have a solid bullpen again and all of these guys will be throwing to Matt Wieters!
I still do not understand the love of Paul Byrd. He is going to be 38 and has an ERA under 4.50 since 2005. He is just going to pull a Trachsel.
1. AJ Burnett - 5 years $75 mil - Big strike out guy would fit well in the O's rotation. They did have very little in the way of strke outs last year
2. Ben Sheets - 4 years $54 mil - He would have to pass a physical but his arm is too good to just pass up. If the O's do not think AJ is a risk then Sheets should be a top choice too.
3. Brad Penny - 1 year $3 mil plus encentives for starts - Solid pitcher when healthy. Will want to re-establish his value with a one year deal.
So my Ideal starting 5 goes:
1. J.Guthrie
2. A.Burnett
3. B.Sheets
4. D.Cabrera
5. B.Penny
Guthrie has earned his #1 status the last 2 years. Cabrera pitches fine on the road. The fact the 3 guys I want have an injury history it makes sense to have a guy who pitches innings. I think Daniel would do well to go to a different home park. but for the price of pitching these days it seems Cabrera is a deal for 1 more year.
Actually if the O's go after Free Agents they should be looking to be more like the Cubs of '06.
The '06 Cubs finished 30 games under .500. They went into the offseason and bought a power hitter and 2 starting pitchers. They finished 8 games over .500 and won the division.
There are three free agents I would like to see the team sign this winter. Each for a different but important reason.
A J Burnett. He will cost too much and will probably be a bad contract beyond three years; however, signing a front line pitcher will send a message to the baseball community that this team is serious and that is worth considering by quality players. If Burnett is REALLY interested in playing near his home then a five year contract at 15M per year with the last two years being innings vested options would be fair for both sides. I would even make the two option years worth 20M each. IF he is still a front line pitcher at that point he deserves the money.
Mark Teixeria. This is franchise player. He provides superior defense at first and a strong SWITCH HITTING run producer bat in the middle of the lineup. Signing him after signing Burnett would put Baltimore back on the baseball map. If Teixeria is REALLY interested in playing near his home then an eight year contract at 18 to 20M per year with the last two years being plate appearance vested options would be fair for both sides. I would even make the two option years worth 25M each. IF he is still a front line player at that point he deserves the money.
Mike Mussina. If we sign Burnett and Tex then Mussina becomes an opportunity to truly restore this franchises dignity and reputation. If Mike Mussina decides to finish his career here it will be a message to the Baltimore fans that this team is truly on track to return to its glory days. If Mike is REALLY interested in coming home to finish what may be a HOF career, then a three year contract at 15M per year with the last year being an innings vested option would be fair for both sides. I would even make the option year worth 20M. IF he is still a front line pitcher at that point he deserves the money.
These contracts would be about 50M more than they would be worth if we were just considering their talent; however, I honestly believe that if Peter Angelos had the chance to write a check for 50M that would restore this franchise’s dignity, immediately increase the team’s revenues by at least 20M a year in increased attendance, and provide a smooth transition to our players of the future, he would do it.
If I were filling a rotation I would use:
Burnett
Guthrie
Mussina
An innings eater acquired by trade or FA
Patton, Liz, Olson, Waters, Bass, Cabrera
I would rather see all of our real pitching prospects spend the year in the minors that learning how to pitch in Baltimore. We should NEVER promote any player EVER again unless they are ready. You add some real pitching talent and depth to this team and they will win at least 87 games and will compete for a wild card spot in 2009.
I thought Luis Terrero was so hot in Norfolk last year. Is he not in the mix for Jay Payton spot caddying for Luke Scott. Is he just a 5th outfielder lifer?
If Montanez doen't defend well enough to play LF, where does he play? Is he on the 2009 Orioles 25?
I'm not such a big fan of some of the guys who've been suggested, especially Garland. I really don't understand why so many people are high on Garland; sure, he's an innings-eater, and we do need an innings eater, but do we need one that's going to cost $10+ million who is, frankly, not that great? Bill James has him projected as having a 4.74 FIP, 4.38 ERA, whereas DCab, who I dont really want to see in an Os uniform anymore, is projected as having a 4.90FIP, 4.85 ERA. Is all that extra money worth it? Its also worth noting that DCab, in this season when he forgot how to strike batters out, still had a higher K/9 than Garland did (4.75 to 4.12) - I know K/9 isn't necessary for success, but Garland...meh, I just dont like him.
As for Burnett, I realize he's a stud, and I would be alright with signing him, but Im just afraid of his injury history, and I feel like he might be a wee bit too expensive. However, I'm alright with Burnett.
Paul Byrd? eh, Im ok with this too, could be a good back-end starter on a good staff, on ours, maybe more, haha. He doesn't strike many batters out, but he has a good K/BB, and has been durable. I'm a bit concerned about the rate at which he gives up home runs, especially at Camden Yards, but once again, I'd be ok with it.
Ideally I think we should look at injury reclamation projects like Mulder, Prior, Colon, Patterson, etc, and guys coming off poor seasons, like Brad Penny. I think Penny would be a good, cheap, option, provided he can regain his pre-2008 form. Let's not forget that before 2008, he had posted FIPs in the mid to high 3s his entire career, and he's been good at limiting home runs, and usually serves up some ground balls. Therefore, I think he would be a good example of the kind of guy we should go after.
Also, what about Randy Johnson? I know he's old, and probably doesn't want to return to the AL, especially not the AL East, where he had a couple of bad seasons with the Yanks (though they weren't as they poor as they seem on the surface), but he was still very effective last season, and if we could sign him for $8 million (what he would have settled for w/ the Dbacks), then I dont see why not. Plus, his pursuit of win #300 would bring more fans to the stadium, which is always a plus.
I know this has been a long post, and if you read it all, congrats, and thank you, I don't usually post on here, so when I do, gotta make it worth it :P
This is a three part process in my opinion: (i) get Texiera; (ii) solidify the starting pitching; (iii) find a solution at shortstop.
(i) I think they should make a serious play at Tex. If the O's can get back to the 2.5 million range in attendance, they make-up the extra money used to pay Tex.
Competitive Team x More Fans = More Revenue
(ii) Go hard after Lowe, Garland and Byrd. Lowe is an innings eater and ground ball pitcher. Those two qualities make him a perfect fit for the Orioles. The starting pitching needs to be solidified. Then we can move extraneous pieces as needed to fill gaps in the majors AND minors. This will also give the organization 2 extra years to develop the young talent at a legitimate pace.
(iii) Get Furcal. Good defense, good bat.
If they extend Markakis and Roberts, this sets the Orioles as a competitive team for the next three years and, perhaps, they can start talking about playoffs again.
Sign Markakis, Roberts long term now!!!!! Come on!!!!
This is my team going into next year..Tell me what ya think!!
1b-Mark Teixeira
2b Brian Roberts
SS Kahlil Green
3b Melvin Mora
DH-1b-3b Aubrey Huff
C-Matt Wieters
C-DH-1b Ramon Hernandez
LF-DH Luke scott
LF-DH Lou Montanez
CF-Adam Jones
RF-Nick Markakis
Utility-Oscar Salazar
OF-Nolan Reimold
SP AJ Burnett
SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Paul Byrd
SP Chris Waters
SP Brain Burres
RP Lance Cormier
RP Jamie Walker
RP Danys Baez
RP Jim Johnson
RP Chris Ray
RP Brian Bass
RP George Sherrill
Pitchers Ready to call up for injury
Alberto Castillo
Garret olson
Rhadimes Liz
Brad Beregenson
Chris Tillman
Hayden Penn
David Hernandez
Chris Bergen
Sign Teixeira, Byrd and Burnette
Trade D Cab for K Greene Great fit both teams
This Roster should Compete well!!
Roch,
Please...please....no Mussina, no Pavano...i'd rather run a couple of local high school pitchers out there every 5 days than either of those washed-up chumps.
There is no way we are going to be able to sign Burnett AND Tex. Lucky if we get one.
Also, Scott Boras is not going to let his Tex sign a deal where the last two years are vested options based on Plate Appearences.
Let's be realistic people...
Roch -
Do you think George Sherrill would be enough to get J.J. Hardy from the Brewers? If so, there are a ton of closers on the FA market (K-Rod, Wood, Hoffman, Lyon, Fuentes) or we could move Jim Johnson into the closer role and sign another lefty, which the market is also saturated with. Not a rotation solution, but SS is another huge hole, and Hardy is better than any of the free agents...
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The Brewers probably have set his value higher than that, but you're right about there being plenty of other options at closer. Don't forget about Chris Ray, too. - Roch
Marty: ROTFL about Daal and Helling! (Would do the same about Sele although it brings back painful memories of how I wanted him at the time.)
Greg: I agree with your MLB and AAA pitching staffs except that I don't think Olson belongs in the Birds' rotation, but I think that Penn might. And I don't want Carl Pavano anywhere near this team. I'd take Byrd instead. And if Burnett is on the team, he's the #1 starter, not Guthrie.
Roch: We should not spend any money on a free agent outfielder. Between Montanez, Reimold, Scott, Redman and Terrero, we've got plenty of candidates for 1 position.
Guthrie is ideally suited to be a #2 starter. We need an ace and a #3 or 4. That's A.J. Burnett and someone like Braden Looper.
I wish I could forget about Chris Ray...
WOW! The responses are all over the place. I love Antony's blog about who SHOULDN'T pitch. Even w/ Mike Nealis's optimistic signings of Tex, AJ and Byrd, the team still will not win w/ Burres in the rotation, but it's certainly an improvement if the O's could pull it off. I've always loved AJ, but I always got the feeling he was a head case, or he'd be one of the best pitchers out there (and he is sometimes). I think for the money, health, and head, I'd take Lowe as my #1 option (my gut says he goes back to Boston). However, he won't sign w/ a team he feels has no chance. I think signing Tex and re-upping Roberts and Markakis will send a message to the rest of the players we mean business. I'd leave all the other free agent pitchers alone...they won't be worth the money printed for them. I'd don't want to block Arrias, Tillman and others.
OF COURSE, IT'S NOT MY MONEY!
Everyone online is saying Tex will be getting something in the range of $100-$150 million over the life on the contract.
The O's should come right out of the gates and offer him $150 million over seven years and be prepared to go as high as $200 million over 10 years.
In any deal where you're paying him that kind of money as he gets older, I'd pay him more now and less towards the end OR defer portions of the year salary for multiple years after.
The moves I would like to see--sign Jon Garland and trade Ramon Hernandez for Aaron Heilman. I love Garland's stuff and believe the change of scene and switch to starting will be good for Heilman and the Orioles.
It makes a lot of sense for Mussina to consider coming back to Baltimore; probably even more sense than it would be for Baltimore to take him back. Mussina will never be considered one of the Yankee greats, and he will be quickly forgotten there once he retires. If he comes back to Baltimore and does anything that seems helpful to the forward progress of the organizaiton, he might regain some of his stature and position within the community and have a long term baseball home to come back to after he retires. Potentially, Baltimore might embrace him for the rest of his life. New York will never really care about him one way or the other.