Not automatic in the clutch
If you're a Julio Lugo fan, you'll want to conveniently overlook the following stat:
Lugo hit .139 with runners in scoring position this season, the lowest for a qualifier since Ron Gant (.130) in 2000.
Oakland's Jack Hannahan followed Lugo in the non-clutch race with a .155 average. Cleveland's Franklin Gutierrez was third at .168, Arizona's Justin Upton fourth at .172 and Boston's Jason Varitek fifth at .175.
Without having his stats in front of me, I'll nominate Eddie Murray as the best clutch hitter I ever saw in an Orioles' uniform. With the game on the line, with a runner needing to be driven home in the late innings, I wanted Murray at the plate. I never felt more comfortable and confident.
Otherwise, I'd take Jeff Reboulet every time Randy Johnson pitched.
Does anyone disagree about Murray? I know there will be plenty of Frank Robinson supporters out there, but Murray played a more prominent role in my baseball childhood.
The Matt Holliday trade seemed odd to me, given his contract status and how Oakland seemed to be stripping down the team. But the Athletics were desperate for a productive bat. They scored three runs or fewer in a league-high 83 games (Seattle was second at 78), and were 20-63 when it happened.
Speaking of Matt Holliday, any bets that if Oakland is out of it at the trade deadline they get a better group of players than they had to give up to get Matt?
you'll want to conveniently overlook the follow stat:
Roch, don't mean to play editor on you, but shouldn't that be the following stat?
You are doing a great job. Love reading your blog.
Mike
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Thanks for catching my typo. I corrected it. - Roch
So if Wieters hits .175 with RISP next year he could be in the all star game?
Lets see how Holliday's hitting numbers compare, going from a hitters park to a pitchers park. Unless the A's felt the players they gave up had minimal value, it will turn out to be a bad trade for them.
Julio Lugo...fan? Do those even exist?
Billy Beane w/ another heist. He gave up nothing of value to him and got a good stick. I agree w/ Rusty totally that he'll get back more mid-season when some team is desperate. I don't value Houston Street much higher than Chris Ray. Where was Andy on this deal?
JPA,
I absolutely agree we spent money the wrong way in the past. I would rather pay the big bucks for the difference makers like Texeira and Sabathia, guys we expect to be good for the length of the contract and contribute when we are good. I don't think that Burnett is in that category since he's 3 years older and not as good. You mention that other teams are spending and drafting, but the teams that are winning have been smart about how they do it. The point is that for the O's right now, there are a lot of holes. You can't build a rotation through free agency, and we would need to sign 3 good pitchers to do that. Plus, we still have to sign Texeira and a SS. At that point, we might be competitive in the AL East. If you believe we can sign that many guys and that we have that much money ($400 million+) to commit, then let's go after the free agents and try to win this year. Otherwise, we need to look at ways to be better in 2010. What Angelos and his lackeys have done for the past decade is to look at a team in the offseason and try to find a couple free agents to make the team better the next season. The mistake we usually make is that we miss out on the single big free agent and sign the second or third choice instead. This strategy is what gets us Marty Cordova and Albert Belle, who are strictly speaking better than the minor league alternatives, but just don't make the team good enough to actually win. A couple years later, those guys are money pits that contribute nothing to the team and prevent us from signing the guys who might actually be worth the money.
Basically, if we can sign Texeira or Sabathia, go for it, since they'll be worth the money for the length of the contract, but I doubt they'd sign here even if we're the highest bidder. Otherwise, I would rather have roster flexibility so that we can sign guys once we are relevant. I know that other teams are getting better too, and playing in the AL East is almost impossible. The way to win though is not to try to keep up with these teams in spending, but to selectively spend money when you'll get the most value. That means adding whichever good pitcher is available next winter and a big hitter in a year or two. Those hypothetical guys could make the difference between 80 wins and 90 wins in 2010, but we don't know what positions we want them to play yet and we want to sign a pitcher that will contribute the most then, not the most right now.
Roch
Here is my top five clutch Oriole hitters
1. Eddie Murray
2. Frank Robinson
3. Brooks Robinson
4. Cal Ripken
5. Roberto Alamar
I look for the A's to trade Holliday for younger players.
Anyone else remember Murray's disappointment in the 1979 World Series? That was the first bet I ever lost (I was 8 at the time), Very disappointing...something about pride before the fall.
Why can't we sign Nomar? He may not be the player of a few years ago, but he's better than what we had last year even though I'm a fan of Juan Castro's arm.
Ryan UVA- I think we are about 98% in agreement. I think your point that picking up Burnett up without anyone else (or a couple of retreads) is a quite valid. Adding a ton of payroll for a .500 pitcher without filling other holes won't get it done. But I'm not sure this team needs to do a complete overhaul. If you can add pieces that will be part of the club in 5 years, you might as well start that process now. The problem with waiting until you get close enough to add those key pieces is that you might never get there in this division.
Roch-- any chance of a move being made before winter meetings?
Hold on a second, bub. Have you forgotten that Brooksie was NAMED "Mr. Clutch?"
It wasn't for how quickly he went from first to third gear, either.
Couldn't resist.
Everyone- Anyone want to take bets on, 5 years from now nothing has changed? They will not spend any money. We will be talking about some prospect that will never get to the bigs. Talking about journeyman like Waters, Simon, Castillo, Burress etc?
We will never win as long as Angelos owns this team. He is an Irsay type owner. Bad Luck.
In the AL East, Boston and New York can buy whatever they want. Tampa Bay has common sense. Longoria, locked up for 10 years a week into his pro career. We can't even get Markakis locked up. Couldn't get Roberts or Bedard locked up. It will be the same with Jones, Weiters, Arrieta, matusz. 6 years and done if they are not dealt before there service clocks are up. In that 6 year period, the O's will not spend what it takes to compliment those players.
Our highest paid player is around 10 mill a year. Next is 7. The yanks have 4 (soon to be 6) players making over 20!!!
It is impossible to win.
They do not have to forsight to see what a Texiera brings to the club not including his stats. The National notoriety. The jersey sales would pay his contract alone.
How many Huff Oriole jerseys have YOU seen??
Don't be shocked to see Baltimore end up with Julio Lugo...
And no, I will not reveal my sources for this breaking news story. Let's just say that MacPhail's critics will have to swallow their gum when the great Julio Lugo suits up in a slightly altered 2009 Oriole uniform.
Fortunately, it is not anticipated that Baltimore will have many runners in scoring position, so that statistic won't have any meaning.
Ryan UVA -
I don't think it's even a fair comparison to put Albert Belle in the same sentence as Marty Cordova. Up until his unforeseen hip injury, Belle was one of the big bats in the game. No doubt a jerk as a person, but few could question the guy's desire once he stepped onto the field. Me personally, I didn't like the Belle signing because of the guy's personality. However he was an elite bat at the time of the signing.
Roch, I've noticed a few folks (posters) getting antsy that the O's have not made a FA moves yet. If Andy is interested in offering a contract to Tex, why would he do so this early in the game. Boras has indicated that negotiations won't take on any significance for his client until at least December. I'm sure both Boras & Tex know that the O's are interested, and that MacPhail will enter into the discussions at the right time.
As for clutch hitters? How about Brother Lo! John Lowenstein. Big clutch homer in the playoffs against the Angels!!
How about Mark Belanger when the O's were facing Nolan Ryan?He was a 220 some hitter,but owned the big express
"Bill In Elkton said:
Why can't we sign Nomar? He may not be the player of a few years ago, but he's better than what we had last year even though I'm a fan of Juan Castro's arm."
I actually like this idea - sure, Nomar is injury-prone, but when he's healthy, he's still got a pretty good bat, and he's versatile; he could help fill in at SS (maybe not all that well anymore), 1B, 3B, and I think 2B, if Roberts is traded. Also, he would be fairly cheap. Not too bad of an idea, eh, cept for the whole him being injured all the time thing, haha.
Some stats on clutch hitting from baseball-reference.com:
Average, RISP, 2 out RISP, Late & Close:
B Robinson .268/.268/.250/.270
F Robinson .294/.291/.272/.289
Murray .287/.292/.262/.282
Ripken .276/.283/.247/.282
Alomar .300/.314/.279/.297
I am struck by how close these players' career averages are to their late & close averages. I think our intuition is off. Great players get a lot of clutch hits because they are great and play a long time. They do not appear to do better in clutch situations than they do in "regular" situations.
FYI, Markakis' numbers are .299/.292/.238/.340. Perhaps the .238 and .340 are because of small sample size (185 & 256 ABs, respectively). But if the .340 were to hold up, you would want Nick over all the HOFers above!
The O's PR staff invented the Game Winning RBI stat because of Murray because he was so clutch They tried to use it to promote Eddie as an MVP candidate I do believe.