Seams like a good time to talk baseball
While wondering if two teams that deal players within their own division can be accused of insider trading...
If you're a retired athlete and you don't have a gig on ESPN, you need a new agent.
Denver Nuggets coach George Karl says former guard Allen Iverson's decision-making and shoot-first mentality were "frustrating" at times. He also points out that being covered in Ring Dings and locked in a room full of pot-smoking frat boys can be "uncomfortable."
The American League will announce its MVP later today. The Angels' Francisco Rodriguez is the favorite, but should a closer win the award? Isn't that what the Cy Young is for?
Then again, if nobody was more valuable to his team than Rodriguez, the award fits.
I like his chances.
Josh Hamilton also will get strong consideration, but he only had 27 RBIs after July 26, and that might swing the vote against him.
For what it's worth, he promises change if he wins.
If I had a vote this year, I would have given it to Dustin Pedroia, with Justin Morneau a close second.
I still don't have any reason to believe that the Orioles will give Mark Teixeira $20 million per year, and I haven't heard anyone argue the point. That's just too steep for this organization.
Look for the Angels to re-sign him. And for disappointed Orioles fans to tell themselves that the money will be better spent on pitching.
A.J. Burnett is a realistic possibility, but I still peer into my crystal ball and see Paul Byrd and Jon Garland.
More important, I set it for 2010 - you can do that with the newer models - and I see Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz.
As for catching, the word on the street is that the Tigers and Reds are interested in Ramon Hernandez, and have expressed it to team president Andy MacPhail.
I just can't get a feel for what his value is after a hugely disappointing season that had scouts and other observers picking him apart like a Thanksgiving turkey.
(I know there's a Tryptophan joke in there somewhere)
Give Hernandez away. Ask for a bag of potting soil.
But not the crappy stuff, the nice, dark, soft, spongey stuff that you swear you could nap on.
I would trade Ramon for a B level prospect at this point. It's time to clear the way for Wieters.
Why not give Teix 20 million per year? No reason they can't afford it.
Jon Garland and Paul Byrd have no business in the AL East, I wouldn't sign either one. What about that Japanese guy that the O's were interested in? I'd much rather give him a shot than 2 pitchers we already know will fail.
Man Roch, you look pretty buff in your new picture up above. That is a sweet picture of Camden Yards. Why do you do you think the Orioles will not spend big bucks on Mark Teixeira? The Orioles desperately need to sign him in my opinion. Alot of Oriole fans feel that way I know. He will greatly improve the team and give the Orioles some much needed star power. I hope your wrong about him man. Thanks for all your hard work.
Andrew,
I guess my question is... if Teixeira is not realistic at $20 million per year, then how is an injury prone A.J. Burnett realistic at $16+ million per year? I heard that was the type of money that Burnett was likely to demand in the market. If Angelos doesn't want to open his wallet to Teixeira, the guy he has had a crush on for years, then I agree, the Byrd and Garland types are more likely... and perhaps some young stars in a trade or two.
"I still don't have any reason to believe that the Orioles will give Mark Teixeira $20 million per year, and I haven't heard anyone argue the point. That's just too steep for this organization."
I know it sounds horrible to say, but that is a big part of why I haven't exactly jumped to renew my "full season" ticket plan for next year yet. Not to say that if the O's don't sign Teixiera that I won't be coming back, because it isn't all about TEX... I just don't know that I can take much more of constantly settling for the 2nd and 3rd string players, because we're pretending that we can't afford better.
It starts with not being able to afford Tex, or not going after Burnett with any zest... and turns into not spending any money to extend Roberts and/or locking in Markakis for the long haul. If we've become Kansas City I will still watch and love my Orioles, but I'll do it from the much more affordable seat on my couch.
IMHO, it doesn't seem likely that the O's will be able to sign any of the bigger name FA's like the ones that the O's fans really want(Teixeira, Burnett, etc).
I just believe that the O's will be used as pawns to up the prices.
Hennessey goes along with Cintron, our other alcoholic drink sounding name. Somehow, Rocky Cherry fits in here as well. His name has multiple uses. Anyway, I know little about Hennessey other than what I see in his stats. 2008 was terrible, the other years okay, and all of that in the NL. Obviously, this is a minor move, the kind that we see plenty of each year (and not just the O’s do it—every team signs this type of player). I can expect people to get antsy because Hennessey is not AJ Burnett or Mark Teixeira.
Ryan in a previous post mentioned $135 million, using a 15% calculation of the team’s Forbes listed value (and the 15% being a figure apparently used by Billy Beane to calculate payroll). In some of the discussions here recently about team payroll and what they can spend, I was thinking (using gut instinct, not any sort of formula) that $130 million was a realistic top number this team could spend in payroll without breaking its bank. Good to see my gut coincides with someone’s actual calculations.
Now, I don’t think the O’s necessarily have to spend this much money to build a competitive team (and conversely, they could spend this much and still not be competitive), and I’m not even sure it’s wise to go on a shopping spree this offseason for free agents since they most likely won’t be competitive next year. But I think there is a lot of room available to add on salaries. So, in theory, extensions should be doable, and some free agent salaries could be added, and the team could still not touch $130 million if the money was spent wisely.
I think the extensions should be the top priority. Secure the foundation before adding on any parts. I think it’s an ill omen that extensions for Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts haven’t happened yet. Whether or not the team goes shopping for prime free agents, this should’ve been done before this offseason started. It would’ve set a tone for free agency, other player acquisition, and even for selling season ticket plans for 2009. It’s too early to tell, of course, but right now the no deals on extensions could be the major miscue of MacPhail’s tenure. The more time that passes, the more difficult unlikely (and expensive) these deals become.
While I'm not a full season plan holder like Tracy, I too am waiting to see what the club does in the offseason before deciding to renew my plan.
No improvement = no plan.
I've vowed never to purchase an authentic O's jersey until they can at least get over the .500 hump.
ug, if the orioles bring in another crop of low level free agents I don't know how much more I can take. I'm a die hard orioles fan, and have been for a long time, but I can't shake the feeling that I may have to give up on baseball. I wish they would just put a cap on baseball similar to the NFL.
Burnett is definitely coming here, let's just say a little bird told me.
It's disgusting that all the media in town is in the O's pocket. Especially here at MASN. Don't believe the O's nonsense when they tell you they don't have the money. As Drew from WNST points out "A person familiar with MASN's cable provider revenue stream says they are generating 150 million annuanly: 6 million Comcast homes at an avg of $2.00 per home per month, plus another 4-6 million in fees from independent cable providers and advertising sales. An industry source cited MASN's yearly expenses at roughly 30 million based on the broadcast of 300 O's and Nats games plus their local college basketball and Ravens programming. That figure does not include start up costs and any repayment of loans from the networks first year when they likely borrowed money to put the network on the air. The O's and Nats both recently recieved a rights check of 26 mil for the 2008 season. What does this all mean? Money should be NO OBJECT for the O's in their pursuit of Teixeira.They started the MASN network so they could overpay for someone if necessary"
http://wnst.net/wordpress/drewforrester/2008/11/15/if-tex-wants-to-be-herewhy-isnt-he/
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Thanks for the comment, Drew. OK, seriously, nobody here is saying that the Orioles need to take up a collection to pay for free agents. It's how they choose to spend the money that's the issue. They need more than Mark Teixeira to contend. I personally hope they back up the truck and drop tons of cash on him, but I don't run the club and I don't need to come up with 2-3 starting pitchers, a shortstop, another outfielder, etc. - Roch
In the spirit of the times I would like to see Angelos “bail out” the Orioles’ reputation, relationship with their fans, and future by overspending between 25 and 30M on players like Tex and A J that this team does not have readily available in their farm system and would be part of a winning future.
Now THAT’S change!
If the O's cannot afford Tex then I will be extremely disappointed. At 28 or 29 he would still be considered apart of a youth movement plus his ties to Baltimore just make sense, I don't care what the cost. Plus he may persuade Roberts to stay.
Another year of wathing stop gap pitchers and mid level overaged ballplayers no longer cuts it for this fan. 11 years is long enough to be a doormat!
Thank you KP and Tracy for bringing some perspective to the table. The Orioles' major problem over the years is they never want to spend the extra 3-4 million per year on a player that will actually make a difference. Our MO is to spend more than we need to on second teir players who command less dollars and years for a reason. We could spend 16 million to get just a little bit better and fill a rotation spot with a .500 pitcher or we could change the dynamics of the offense and have 1B set for years for an extra 4 million or so. True the years are more, but is Tex breaking down?
Roch, it seems like you think that Burnett is a foregone conclusion and a good buy at 16 mil/yr whereas Tex signing would be unmanagable at 20 mil/yr. Why have we been clearing all of these contracts? The money we saved on Bradford, Tejada, and lots of end of the season salary dumps over the years have created the flexibility to make this move. Does anyone really think Burnett alone substantially alters the direction of this team? He would be a very nice addition, but not in isolation.
Garland & Byrd would get lit up like a Xmas tree pitching in the Yawn plus they would have to face the AL East a lot more. Just bec/ a guy can come cheaper isn't a good reason to $ign him potter....
IF Burnett does want $16M/yr... A) potter will dance naked in the Inner Harbor this Dec before he gives him that much for 2-4 yrs.... B) he isn't worth it for more than 2 yrs & C) we r screwed for 2009.
R Hernandez has some value. To another team needing a C he looks better than he played here. Also, going to a contender in his walk year, he'll probably play better & be in better shape. The teams looking at him know this too. They should get something worthwhile for him, not some AA nobody.
If the Orioles don't put up the bucks for Teixeira, attendance will fall below 1.5 million next year. It's time for this organization to put it's money where it's mouth is.
I am only sending this b/c of Dan's comment. We personally asked Burnett to sign something after the last game of the year and he was reluctant. More importantly, however, when we asked him if he would be coming to Baltimore next year he said "That is the plan."
KG, I have to respectfully disagree with you here.
If you don't think that Garland and Byrd are fit for the AL East, you can at least acknowledge that they are fit to be in a major league rotation. Maybe not front end guys, but solid starters that wouldn't be laughed out of a starting rotation.
We haven't had many guys who fit that description. It got to the point last year where our pitching staff came down to people who shouldn't have been in the majors at all.
If we're going to be in the business of trying to land a couple of moderate-to-big name FAs while we wait for our young pitching to develop, it would probably help to have serviceable pitchers - even if their ceiling has diminished to a #3-5 in the rotation.
I, unfortunately, tend to agree with you about Texiera not coming to the Orioles.
I also agree that we should expect such names as Jon Garland or Paul Byrd to end up in our rotation next year However, this isn't neccesarily a bad thing; assuming we can lock them into shorter term deals for less money than the injury machine Burnett. Then in 2010 as you predict, we wont be tied to a bad contract or have pitchers blocking the promising crop of very talented minor league arms. If we still need a veteran arm, we will be in a better position to go out acquire one. You never know when one of these pitchers will pan out (re: Kyle Loshe). Then again they can also blow up in your face (re: Carlos Silva), but the key is short term (and they cannot possibly be worse than running out some of the guys we have for 4 innings of torture).
Ramon leaving is addition by subtraction. Take whatever you can get for this guy (which probably means paying some of his contract). Nothing was more frustrating last year than watching this guy simply not try behind the plate and not produce at the plate.
Promoting Weiters will give O's fans (well maybe just serious ones) something to follow all season long. Not too mention he will improve our lineup tremendously.
Paying for Teixeira is a must for the franchise. First of all, it will put people in the seats. Spending $20M on Tex is like spending $12-14M on any other player, because he will make up the difference in actual revenue generation. It also legitimizes the rebuilding process by putting an achor on the team to compliment the rising stars. And it will also help to sign/extend guys like Roberts and Markakis, who are looking to win in their careers. It will also help bring in better free agent pitchers, knowing that the dependable Tex is in the line up for run support. It is a no-brainer.
I'd consider a trade of Hernandez for a bat a plus. I mean an actual bat, not a player. A real live person would be a steal. As far as the high profile free agents, I really don't see that the Orioles have shown enough yet to convince them to come here. Even if the Orioles do make offers to A level F/A's, I'll be surprised if they're accepted.
Once again, the Orioles are usually playing that same game EVERY SINGLE year. Are you honestly tired of this? I know I am, and Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta will never win against pitchers like Sabathia, and whoever else the Yankees and Red Sox get. Lets face it, the Yankees have a 5 year 80 Million Dollar deal down for AJ. AJ Burnett does not want to play here, and we are still the biggest laughing stock ever in baseball. McPhail likes to take his sweet little time. You watch, this man is the reason why the Cubs and Twins sucked for so long.
Hey Roch I have some questions for you...
How about Ramon Hernandez for Dontrell Willis? We can throw in Guillermo Quiroz Steve Toreallba and You guys can give them Rick Dempsy for play by play!!!.....just kidding Rick!! Hey Roch have you asked Andy macphail about available funds....I know he wont tip his hands too much....but maybe you could ask probing questions...like Andy Would you consider us budget wise a large market or small market team......Since he I assume knows what he can spend..... ..Them depending on the answer......we could ask him if type A Boris free agents are in said marketplace budgets........ Does Andy Macphail have a good relationship with Boris? when he calls does he talk to Boris or a gatekeeper............and visa versa........does Andy have the freedom to sign based on projected revenue impact instead of actuals? Could we sign Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens for free lifetime legal counccil?......Just kidding.....Is MASN hitting its Goals......You should know that one...........How can you answer..........lol what percentage of projected oriole player payroll comes from MASN?Do teams get other large companies to help with a players salary for team endorsements...Like Coca Cola chipping in 1 million a year to have Mark Teixeira drinking their product on all the In Stadium ads........Do we wait to start the signings until season ticket packages reach a certain sales mark.......How is the 401k......again just kidding What is the equation they use to determine team salary......If a player is not on the 40 man does his salary count against that...meening who technically is paying Matt Wieters and is that the same entity that pays a Blake Davis or Travis Brown....... What other ways does a team bring in money........Merchandise , advertising...but what else?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Wow, we might have to meet for lunch so I can tackle all these questions. And I promise not to just go for the ball like the Ravens did on Sunday. I will say that Peter Angelos is willing to spend, but the franchise has its limits because the money needs to be spread around (starting pitching, another bat, perhaps a shortstop if a trade isn't made). And I don't think a 10-year, $200 million proposal for Mark Teixeira is in the cards. Burnett also could price himself out of Baltimore. He'll be a risk because of past health issues. And the Orioles aren't real keen on give pitchers five-year deals at huge sums. As for Dontrelle...something isn't right with that guy. I think he needs more than a change of scenery. - Roch
Thanks Roch!! we do know each other..I was one of your top revenue producers at your last employer and my last employer as well.......LOL..You and I have talked a couple times in the old cafeteria......
Who's Boris?
Part of me is thinking that we'll get more for Ramon if we hold off on trading him. This being a contract year for him, I wouldn't be surprised to see another career year for him. And with MacPhail wanting players to "earn" there promotions, I expect him to want more AAA time than people expect.
By the way Roch... I haven't seen any oblique jokes lately. What gives?!
Roch,
Problem is, starters like Byrd and Garland... well, they're just not good. I mean, Garland is an improvement over everyone but Guthrie, but that's not saying much.
As others have pointed out on OH, we have no infield after 2009. And it's not like we can rely on Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, etc., to be the studs we hope they'll be. At the very least I can't, considering I still have the names Loewen, Penn, and DCab fresh in mind. I mean, I'm optimistic... however, I'm also cautious.
Teixeira might not fix every problem with the team, but he'll be a step in the right direction for the future of this franchise.
Jake-
I see what you are saying, but at the same time, whats the difference between throwing Patton/Albers/Liz/Olson/Bergessen/Berken etc. as the #4-5 starters and Garland and Byrd. They will all be below average AL East starters, but Garland will probably cost something like 3/30 (minimum) and will not actually help us compete. He will only help us in the sense that we will not have a question mark as to which #4 starter will be losing games. Then in 2 years when some of the young pitchers are actually ready, we will have a 10 million dollar pitcher with a 5+ ERA who we can't get rid of, so that for the 2 previous years we didn't suck as much.
There was a tryptophan joke in there but Ramon already ate it. Forget a bag of balls. I would even trade this guy for Steve Reed.
If they could come up with a standardized tail end of their career pitcher package...see who bites...send it to...Moyer, Pedro, Moose, glavine, Smoltz, Maddux, Randy Johnson, Schilling...whoever...something like 2 yrs 14 million...plus incentives for IP and whip Plus I just did some research on Dontrelle...he lost it after him and Kranitz seperated........If kranitz was to think he could turn him around...we would have to make that deal!!! i just did a quick check on that..Roch can you try to validate the D Train Kranitz connection.....I also still Think we should try to pry Greene from the Padres for D Cab What are the chances of former first rounder Hennessy turning into a Guthrie? Who was the pitcher who beet up the Astros GM last year where is he at? What about offering Pavano a spring training invite...gulp....Also Do we ever have any of these mid level pitching prospects fool with a knuckle ball......if one of them was to come up with a good one It could move them up the ladder.....I love throwing a good knuckle baller out there every 5th day........It ties up the hitters on opposing teams in many ways!!
I'm w/ Rick C. I don't understand the rush to get rid of Ramon when his value is ZERO. However, he wasn't terrible at the plate in the 2nd half, but his throwing certainly vanished last season. That I don't get. Why can't he stay on the team w/ Wieters as a back-up? No catcher's going 162 games anyway. He could help ween Wieters into the majors by playing 2, maybe games a week. When a catcher goes down mid-season he'd actually have more value than he has now.
Please...no Paul Byrd (he can only go 5 innings, and we have plenty of those guys on the cheap)...maybe Garland though.
first i don't think they should try to sign any free agent pitchers who aren't number 1 or number 2 starters. why pay a lot of money for an average pitcher just because he's available. between guthrie, cabrera, albers, 3 starters from bowie (not tillman), penn, olson and sarfante you'll get your starters. and you'll have arrieta, patton, tillman and matusz competing the following year. they need to make an honest effort to sign tex maybe something like 6 yrs for $110 million just to show the fans they are trying to be competitive in the market. he'll probably sign with the angels who will pay him 7 yrs for $140 million. trade ramon h for a pair of spikes and some pine tar--just move him out. if reimold has a really good spring put him in left and platoon with scott, use hernandez as a reserve of/1b/dh use huff at first, 3rd and dh. use salazar as dh/ph/1b/3b. find a guy like chris gomez for the bench and use castro at ss unless you can find someone who is equal or better in the field and has more pop in his bat..mora at 3rd, roberts at 2nd. trade sherrill while he has value and use ray or j johnson as closer and the other as 8th inn guy use sarfante if he doesn't start in the 7th with hoey, and that 6 8 guy they had last yr in the bullpen along with a couple of guys who don't make it as starters but try to have as many power pitchers as possible. take the "free agent" money and extend markasis, roberts, guthrie and jones and if weiters has a good first half sign him to a longer contract like tampa bay did with longoria.
Unfortunately, I think the Orioles are going to have to overpay to get premium talent through free agency. Why would anyone go to a last-place team in the middle of a 12 year losing slide (and questionably effective rebuild) who has to play the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays 50+ times?
In order to land a major FA signing, we're going to have to show that we'll pony up the cash, and the only opportunity we'll have to do that is with guys like Garland or Byrd.
Jon Garland would not get lit up are you crazy he beats the Yankees and the Red Sox and the Orioles all the time . He is an Ace and he is going to do well were ever he goes . You are stupid to say he would not do good in the AL East, last year he beat the Yankees every time he played them and he also beat the Red Sox, The Orioles would be lucky to get him but I do not think he would sign with them it is not his kind of team . I think he will sign some where in the Central like maybe with the Indians .
fkterpf:
You seem to be an idiot. Proof of this is saying SARFATE (not sarfante) should be in the starting rotation and that Ramon Hernandez can platoon in the outfield. I'm surprised I didn't see something in your comment about pulling for Danys Baez to be a starter too. Also, no Orioles fan would believe for a second that we made a serious push for Teixiera if we offered him anything less than $20 million a year because the entire industry knows that just won't get it done. I'm not one for personal attacks, but your post was just lunacy.
Roch -
Like many posters I'd love to see the O's make a big splash in free agency. But most people posting here are not very realistic. Let's face it, the biggest issue we face isn't whether Andy moves too slowly, or the O's keep playing us. No the real issue is, why would a high profile FA sign with the O's?
Baltimore has not been relevant in the baseball world since the late 90's when we made our last playoff run. The team has been run poorly and with no plan in place. We ignored our farm system and player development for many years, and playing out the string in September is not attractive to any big time players. Be honest, if any of us were big name free agents, why would we really consider the O's. These guys are not interested in franchises in the midst of a major rebuild. To land Tex is going to take a big time sell.
Now all this being said, it's not entirely hopeless. The Rays have put themselves in a position to attract free agents that a couple of years ago would have never considered Tampa. The ball park is a deterrent to a point, and the team is not a desirable destination for big time FA's, but they will be able to attract some pieces that they need. The O's need to continue building the foundation, which is the farm system and player development, as well as international scouting. We also need to lock up our key players that fit into the plan for the next 5 years. Once the team begins to deliver on the promise of young talent from the minors, and stabilizes management while energizing the fan base, the FA's will look at Baltimore again. Right now is a tough sell.