Free to go
The Orioles have until midnight to decide whether to offer arbitration to their four free agents, and it's safe to assume they won't be doing so.
Kevin Millar, Jay Payton, Juan Castro and Alex Cintron will be allowed to seek employment elsewhere. And because they weren't designated as Type A or B free agents, the Orioles wouldn't gain a compensatory draft pick by offering them arbitration. So why bother?
Of the four, Millar stands the best chance of returning to Baltimore at a much later date, but only if the Orioles fail to acquire another first baseman and decide to keep Aubrey Huff as their primary designated hitter. Millar has stated his desire to remain an Oriole, though in a starting capacity. I don't think he's of the mindset to become a pinch-hitter and late-inning replacement.
Meanwhile, if we're debating the merits of acquiring Felix Pie from the Cubs in a three-way deal involving the Padres and Garrett Olson, we should note that Cubs manager Lou Piniella told the Chicago Sun-Times last week that his club wouldn't be pursuing Jake Peavy after giving Ryan Dempster $52 million.
"No," Piniella told the paper. "Starting [pitching] we don't need. We're set. We've got six good starters and they're all experienced. Getting Dempster back was the key. We're in good shape with our starting pitching."
I wouldn't hold him to that if Peavy is obtainable. He's in a class by himself, or at least one that meets each day in a tiny room. But it's still worth including in any discussions.
Also, if the Cubs are so deep in starting pitching - and they most certainly are - why do the Padres need Olson to complete a deal? I know they like him - some might say "covet" - but is he more major league ready than anyone the Cubs could offer?
Olson has posted a 6.87 ERA in 33 starts. If it's too soon to label him a "bust," it's also too soon to consider him major league ready.
Here's the trade
O's get:
Pie
J Marquis
K Greene
Cubs get:
J Walker(Cubs really need that one/two out lefty)
Peavy
Pads get:
DCab
Olson
One other O's prospect
two Cubs prospects
O's fill three holes, Cubs get better and still shed some payroll, Pads shed payroll and load up on 4A talent for the rebuild.
I just don't see how a team could "covet" Garrett Olson after this past year, I'm baffled.
No one wants Daniel Cabrera. No one. If someone did, the O's would have moved him by now.
Seriously, why are the Pads so high on Olson? I mean, yea, he has shown dominance in the minors, but so how many other Oriole's can-miss prospects. You can only have 1 or 2 soft tossers in your rotation, and the O's were trying to roll out 3 or 4 at a time last year. A mix of power and finesse is what makes for a strong rotation. As inconsistent as Cabrera is, they need someone who can throw heat every 5 days, assuming he doesn't come out this year topping out at 89 like he was at the end of the year...
Lets not give anything up for Pie, seriously. What good does it do? He may blossom into a major league OFer, but he hasn't yet. I would rather take a chance on Olson getting better than taking a chance on Pie getting better. We need pitching. Period.
Guess pulling Guthrie off the scrap pile is a once in a lifetime happening, so I wont be expecting a move like that anytime soon.
Paul -
Is that speculation on your part or on someone else's part, and if so - in the case of the latter - what's the source?
No matter the case, I think it makes sense for the reasons you stated at the bottom of your post. It also makes Reimold or Pie and/or Scott available for trade for more pitching.
Thanks for the work over what was a break for the rest of us, Roch. Much appreciated.
I don't like the idea of giving up on Olson yet, and I don't see how we really need Pie at all. Some people are saying Pie isn't as good as everyone thought he would be, his offensive numbers certainly stink to high heaven. This one still has me scratching my head a bit.
BRING BACK MILLAR! PLEASE OR MY OPENING DAY SEATS WILL BE EMPTY!
MILLAR MILLAR MILLAR!
DO NOT BRING BACK JAY PAYTON! PLEASE OR MY OPENING DAY SEATS WILL BE EMPTY!
I really don't see how the Orioles could go wrong dealing to get Pie. He is still extremely young, and hasn't been given the opportunity to blossom as a big leaguer yet. Olson is going to be a 5th starter in a good rotation- AT BEST.
I'm also of the opinion that we should focus on getting younger, and extending our young players to long-term contracts, much like the Rays did with Evan Longoria. Yes, that means we might have to trade some fan favorites like Brian Roberts, in order to get younger, and be willing to give Markakis the money he is worth. Don't bother with Texiera or Burnett. The money can be better spent when the Orioles are more competitive.
Although we are almost certain to take our lumps in the AL East next year, I am very intrigued by the young nucleus that is forming for the Orioles. Matt Weiters, Nick Markakis, and Adam Jones in the middle of the order for years to come, along with Tillman, Matsutz, and Arrieta on the hill. With some wise decisions people may be surprised when they see this young club assend to the top just like the Rays did last year.
Roch,
Just checked mlbtraderumors.com and they have a link that says Adam Loewen will be available in the rule 5 draft since Toronto did not put him on the 40 man roster. Interesting.
The same link also had a quote from SD GM that stated Lou may say no but Hendry says yes.
Any whispers that the O's may take someone in the rule 5 draft and how far has Beird dropped in the O's eyes?
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Haven't heard that they'll take anyone in Rule 5 (and they're at the 40-man limit). Bierd has dropped far enough that he's off the 40. - Roch
Who is John Cass? I got curious about the player to be named later, and checked Bradfords' Wikipedia. I may have missed a bio, but apparently he was the player to be named for Bradford. I took MacPhails' advice and had low expectations, but I can't find a darn thing about John Cass. Pitcher, or position player, I have no idea. MILB.com doesn't have anyone named Cass at all. Anyone have any idea?
Olson for Pie? Yes. Bradford for Cass? Straight salary dump, I guess.
I think Marquis might be a decent low investment and maybe high return acquisition. He's had near 200 IP every year for the last few seasons. He is not a spectacular SP and might be worse in the AL EAST, but, he may be for us what Paul Byrd has been for the Indians, that is, a decent innings-eating veteran that can save the bullpen from wearing out and indirectly give our younger SPs a better chance to succeed. We really need two guys like him but to get one with relatively low cost in talent is attractive. We have to remember that his salary is relatively high, so, he may be cheaper in prospects than one might think. Also, if the Cubs trade for Peavy, they'll have 7 starting pitchers so this deal makes sense to give them some room. If we are somehow asked to give up anything better than a Mike Fontenot-type player then we should pass though.
We could reclaim Loewen in the Rule V draft but that means that we can't send him to the minors to develop the hitting. It sounds like a calculated move that will probably work out for the Jays. Loewen looks like he needs 1-3 years in the minors just to even begin the conversation of coming back to the majors. Anyone who claims in him in Rule V would have a gaping hole in their bench. It's not like he can at least field and/or run.
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Agreed. No team figures to claim Loewen and keep him on the major league roster. Talk about stashing a player! That would be the extreme - even more than Jose Morban. - Roch
A thought on the Pad's coveting Olsen: He would pitch in the NL West (the exact opposite of the AL East in more than just title) and in a pitcher's park - unlike OPCY. He is also a Southern California native, so there's that as well.
If this trade happens and we are able to pick up Burnett, we have a much better rotation and a deeper outfield. No, we aren't aiming to take first in the AL East, but it is a much needed improvement that can have lasting benefits. This is why I like the idea of going after Burnett and Tex. Getting guys like that not only puts fan(nies) in the seats, but set us up for contention in 2-3 years. That is with the no-brainer of extending Nick as well. Who, if rumor has it, just got married and is looking to make home in b-more for time to come. If that's the case, congrats to him and we'd love to have him here.
What the Cubs have to offer is Sean Marshall who is really a backend starter or long man. Garrett projects to be a #3 type starter. A lot of it depends on how well the changeup develops. Garrett's main flaw right now seems to be throwing strikes. He does it in the minors. In the majors he loses his nerve. He has the stuff to be successful. He has the command to be successful. I think his success will depend on how well he learns to read MLB batters, and, how much courage he gets with more experience. I've seen him throw way too many fastballs for balls against hitters obviously sitting on soft stuff (based on stride foot timing and fouling fastballs to the away foul line). He gets batters set up for inside fastballs but doesn't have the nerve or experience yet to be able to confidently throw it in there and trust that the batters' timing is off.
Personally I think Garrett might be able to ease into being a mid-rotation starter after being beat up a little bit and realizing that it's not the end of the world. And, even good pitchers get lit up like a Christmas tree every now and then.
Christian - Question for you though...after you trade away fan favorite, Roberts and decide not to bother with Teixiera or Burnett what in the world makes you think that Nick Markakis is going to want to sign away the most lucrative years of his career to a team that he has only seen in constant "recycle" mode?! Nick is three years away from being able to write his own ticket just about ANYWHERE he wants within the MLB so the Orioles need to make Baltimore a place worth staying in or, like so many free agents before, it will be all to easy for him to pass on signing here no matter the money being offered! I understand the notion of rebuilding a winning club solely with youth, I just don't think it's very realistic.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/chi-01-cubs-chicagodec01,0,842790.story
According to this article Brian Roberts has an offer from McPail and is on a clock for the Winter Meetings.
I think this is fair. Brian has to decide. If the offer is serious money and time than I hope Brian takes it and adds to the organization until he retires.
Yes Character Counts!
Hopefully at the same time they have Markekis signed. What an announcement before you go to the Winter meetings after some of thes free agents. Commitment-a new word in the Oriole franchise dictionary.
Jennifer-
If we bring back Millar I'm burning every piece of orioles memorabilia I own. No more Fatboy Millar plzkthnkz
I like the way you think Basemonkey!
Roch,
Is there an unspoken assumption in baseball right now that the hat for a lot of these trade rumors won't drop until the primary Free Agent options are exhausted? Afterall a guy like Peavy becomes an even more expensive commodity in prospects for a team or teams who lose out on the Sabbathia/Burnett else sweepstakes. Personally I think once the top guys all the way to Garland sign is when we see the big trades start to gain momentum.
I realize how important Roberts is to the Orioles, esp. since he was the only true glimmer of light during a dark dark period of homegrown Os products. That being said, if we're not going to contend we have to trade him. This is what the Orioles of old would have done because it made baseball sense. And, on back then the fans understood that. We said goodbye to a lot of All-Stars and future Hall of Famers during the glory years because sometimes a team needs to make those tough decisions. It might feelgood to keep him, but how many times has the Orioles opted for the feelgood move and not have it pay off in the longrun? It will feel a lot better if Roberts returns 4-5 players/prospects to fill varying spots in the minors and major league roster. If done wisely we have a shot at getting an SP, position player, and prospect of note for Roberts. I sort of feel like the Roberts issue has been under-covered lately. Is there any kind of underlying sense of what's really going on? Is the contract negotiations with Roberts an earnest attempt or a respectful formality to a beloved Oriole?
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I don't have exact details of the offer, so it's hard to say. I'm sure the Orioles would like him to sign an extension and be part of the rebuilding plan, but they were still trying to gauge whether he wanted to be here and was perhaps willing to endure another losing campaign in '09. They're also checking the market for him, which could have changed slightly since he's a year closer to free agency. In the past, they've come in relatively low - or extremely low - with their initial offers to players. Not sure if that's the case this time. - Roch
Tracy-
I understand where you are coming from by saying that Baltimore needs to become an attractive place to play. However, I don't think that anyone on the team is untouchable, including Markakis. If you look at what the Florida Marlins have done over the past decade, it's incredible. They ALWAYS win with youth, with a few veterans signed at the right time to give the team some balance. If Markakis feels that the existing and rising group isn't one he wants to stick around and be a part of, well, we could trade him too. Some of the most successful teams in baseball are the small market clubs like Oakland and Florida who are willing to part with just about anyone.