Revisiting Roberts/Floyd
Good morning to all.
I don't mean to interrupt your preparations for the big Buffalo-Connecticut bowl game today - bonus points if you knew it was the International Bowl - but I wanted to revisit last night's entry about Brian Roberts and Gavin Floyd, now that I've sifted through all the comments.
Again, I'm only saying that the two sides have talked about the two players. The Orioles apparently brought up Floyd's name, and it's been under discussion. That's it.
Fans in Chicago who are railing about the absurdity of the White Sox giving up a young 17-game winner need to be reminded that the kid was 8-10 in parts of four seasons before hitting it big last season. He's not in Jake Peavy's class yet. He might never get there. The jury's still out.
And yes, the White Sox would be punching another hole in their rotation, which is why they might pursue a free agent or require a pitcher in return for Floyd, whether it's from the Orioles in an expanded deal or a third team. It's only Jan. 3. Opening Day rosters don't have to be set for a few more months.
Also, it figures that the White Sox would want Roberts to sign an extension, which would eliminate the argument over him being a one-year rental. Unfortunately, I left out that important point while rushing to file my entry before the Hot Stove Show on MASN (I heard Jim Hunter say "10 seconds" as I was reaching for the send button).
As a friend and former co-worker pointed out last night during a text exchange, Olson-for-Pie didn't happen, but that doesn't mean the trade talks weren't real. Roberts-for-Floyd might fade away, too, but they've been linked in the same discussions this winter.
As always, stay tuned.
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Categories (click for archive)Roch Kubatko | Roch Kubatko Orioles |
I don't see Roberts signing an extension. How often does that happen anymore? Rarely if ever. Players want to find out what they can get on the open market and I don't think Roberts would be any different.
KG - A pitcher with a better upside? Gavin Floyd is only twenty-five years old. We should be so lucky that Garrett Olson, Hayden Penn, and Radhames Liz have such an upside at 25.
Until I see McFail actually do something meaningfully, the rumor/trade talks is nothing more then propaganding for McFAIL to say he has irons in the fire.
He does have irons in the fire and his head in his .........butt!
Come March, all of you Kool aid drinkers will be saying....Ole Jack was right on this offseason! McFail has no intention of trying to field a winning team. He might sign a Hendrickson here and there, but in the long run, anybody with an annual salary of 5+ will not be signed no matter what his age is!
When you are in a burning house and you smell smoke, it is time to get out! Dont wait until your ask gets burned! How much of the propraganding the FO did over Tex was to get season tickets sold?
WAY TO GO OLE PETE & McFAIL!
"This offseason we are going to do what we have to in order to field a competitive team until the young kids are ready"
BOY YOU REALLY WENT OUT OF YOUR WAY McFAIL!
Rah Rah Rah
Jack - Gavin Floyd is a one-year wonder? He was the 4th overall pick in the draft. He won 17 games(6th in the AL) and was 10th in innings pitched. He took no-hitters into the 8th and 9th innings. He had a very solid minor league career. You and some others here see a one-year wonder(your glass is always half-empty), while people in baseball see a young guy who has figured it out. He's only 25. He's also cheap, he only made $400,000 last year. Cheap, as you have reminded us often, is part of the plan.
You state that Getz is the real deal. He had one good year at AAA, at age 25, and he's the real deal whereas Floyd wins 17 games in the majors at age 25 and he's a one year wonder. Getz was rated the 6th best prospect at the end of this season in a week system. Though he hits for a high average and is patient at the plate, he may project more as a utilityman than a major league regular.
As for the "awesome" AA third baseman you want included in the deal, he doesn't exist. Maybe that's why you can't think of his name. Of course he can always play for your beloved Baysox, if acquired.
BTW - Gavin Floyd has four career starts at AA in which he allowed zero runs and only allowed one batter past 2nd base. If you're correct and he is a one-year wonder than you can watch him pitch at a level that he will sure to be successful.
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Should I assume that this is directed at a reader? Because I never referred to Floyd as a one-year wonder, just that he had one good year in the majors so far. - Roch
Speaking of Chicago fans, I love the one who wrote that Floyd would cost the O's BRob and Wieters MINIMUM. lol
Roch, Would you be so kind as to clarify on a piont? You write: "I'm only saying that the two sides have talked about the two players," which seems to be backing off a bit in tone from yesterday.
Are the discussions going on now or is this just something that MacPhail and Williams talked about at the Winter Meetings, and that you're bringing up because it's an interesting talking point?
I realize that even if they are in contact now, it doesn't mean a trade is imminent. Even if this one goes down, I imagine it's going to be somewhat a process.
I'm wondering how serious to take "the buzz." The level fan interest is through the roof (over 130 comments posted since you broke with this at 6:56 last evening), so I hope you've got a real scoop here.
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Hey Ken. I'm not backing off last night's entry, just making sure everyone understands that I never said a trade was about to go down. It's my understanding that the talks are very recent. But so are a lot of other talks. These are more interesting to me, and others, because they involve Floyd. But it's all talk until a deal is announced. - Roch
The International Bowl does not start for another 90 minutes...so no interference here. Would make a great three days of Bowl games if Buffalo can pull a win in this game. After having Nebraska beat Clemson and Utah defeating Alabama (an undefeated Utah again being screwed in the National Championship picture by big money conferences -- why call it the Bowl Championship Division if not all teams in the division can be part of the championship?!?).
As for a Roberts trade...Robert (and Maybe Olsen) for Floyd/Getz (and maybe some prospects) might be a good trade. I have been against moving Roberts, but if we can get good looking starting picture and 2b propect plus some additional depth in the farm, i think you make the trade.
This would also mean in my mind that a Markakis extension is a must if you trade Roberts.
hey roch, how much you wanna bet that if this deal goes down, half the fans who jumped ship when Tex left jump back on board?
I really like the sounds of the white sox second basemen Chris Getz, but if we only can get Floyd for Roberts I haven't heard many teams going after Orlando Hudson. This guy is an all-star player and I would love to have him in an orioles uniform. Also, since the market is down, the Orioles might be able to get him a little cheaper. Hudson would be a perfect replacement for Roberts.
The White Sox fans do have a legit beef with the idea of trading Gavin, because it would essentially give their rotation only one solid "We Know What We're Getting" starter ahead of what the Orioles currently have going into 2009. Still, as you pointed out, Floyd is far from a "sure thing" just yet, he had a great season in the win column, and he's young & under team control for several more seasons which is what makes him so attractive.
As far as Brian, I don't believe that he would have a problem signing an extension with a team in contention, like the White Sox. The ONLY thing holding him back from doing so with the Orioles is the uncertainty of whether or not they WILL make it back to contention before he's old enough to be discarded. Worst case for the Sox, Roberts gives them a serious shot in the arm for a playoff run this season (assuming they do pick up a free agent to replace Floyd) he refuses arbitration next offseason and they lose him to another team and get the draft pick compensation for him.
Personally, I would rather see Brian sign an extension with US... I'm just not so sure that's what Brian wants. I just pray that either way it is settled quickly as I don't think I could take another 6-8 weeks of this type of speculation. Not with Brian. Not again.
Roch---interesting development. if it goes down, would Lou Montanez be an option to consider at 2B, or are his days as an infielder over?
What kills me is if this trade doesn't happen, the critics will be all over the front office for not pulling the trigger... as if the deal was actually on the table and MacPhail wouldn't or couldn't make it happen. In fact, our friend Jack has already posted something to this effect. I guess it demonstrates he is smarter than the rest of us, something he desperately tries to prove day after day.
With Gavin Floyd, we're getting a young pitcher on the upswing, someone who hasn't reached his full potential yet. I think we can pretty much ignore all his stats prior to 2008. He had a rough time adjusting to the big leagues but there is little doubt he's made it. Somebody a while back did point something out that is a potential source of concern. He gave up 30 bombs last year and that does make me a bit nervous.
Ken Francis... you provided a link to a scouting report on Getz via a Canadian-based website. I'm very familiar with the reports this organization has generated for both baseball and hockey players and the accuracy of their analysis is frequently questionable at best.
What I've read on Getz indicates he has terrific make-up, he is a solid contact hitter with decent plate discipline, he does not have leadoff speed, and his range projects as average at best. I'd say he is a decent prospect but not a blue chipper.
If this deal happens, I think the Orioles will have to send at least one pitching prospect along with Roberts. Then again, maybe it's just a red herring. You know how player agents love to release morsels of info in order to generate interest from other clubs and hopefully create a bidding war for their free-agent clients? Well I'm sure the GMs play the same game. Maybe all this White Sox talk is a way to inspire another team to pony up with a better (and more realistic) offer for Roberts.
Ray, I don't know where you get your information because players sign extensions all the time. Does everyone become a free agent?
This is the first rumor that I like. Roberts and a AAA pitcher for Floyd and Getz makes sense, at least for the O's.
I can't recall a sports writer essentially "circling the wagons" so quickly.
Not even 24 hours later, you are taking the "Roberts-Floyd might fade away" stance... pretty weak.
The Orioles seriously need to sign Brian to an extension and stop all these rumors that leave us Oriole fans going nuts. I don't see Brian being a White Sox. I don't see him leaving Baltimore anytime soon.
That would be a great deal for us if Floyd pans out, so it would be similar to the Johan deal last year where before it was completed the Mets got to sign him to an extension? I could see Roberts signing one there because they seem to be a pretty competitive club. I would like to get 2B in return for that trade though especially because we don't know what Floyd will be like next year.
i would push to extend roberts and markakis .but if the price for roberts is to much the o's need to do what they have to.but what would they do for a leadoff hitter?and a great defensive 2nd baseman. the other thing i would like for them to do would be get a power hitter which i think they need spend the money on one.and of course go after pitching by also spending the money there's enough out there .
Oops I'm a geek and knew it was the International Bowl. Turner Gill, Buffalo's couch, is one of the best up and coming college coaches in the country. Thanks for the O's info Roch.
I'd take Floyd for Roberts. Roberts clearly won't be staying here.
But I'm starting the Bring Barry Bonds to Baltimore campaign. Who's coming with me, man?
But I wouldn't bat Barry in the leadoff.
How about -
Getz and Floyd for Roberts and Garret Olson?
Roberts' does not fall to zero if he fails to sign an extension with the Orioles (or anyone who may deal for him). He will most certainly be a Type-A free agent next winter and therefor be worth two high draft picks if he leaves his current team (assuming they offer him arbitration). So I'd say the bare minimum the O's would seek in return would be two top-level prospects. Alternatively they could seek one ML player and a less certain or advanced prospect. If they can't get it they can just take the draft picks. Billy Beane has been stockpiling draft picks like that for years and also using that knowledge to maximize what he gets in return when he does make a trade.
The real interesting nugget was the possiblity of trading for Michael Young($6mil 32yrs). If Texas is looking to dump salary(Millwood $10mil or Padilla $11mil) we could get a starter and prospect 2b or 3b for roberts and then deal some of our 4A pitching for Young and one of the high priced guy's. Pick up a big chunk and that deal is something.
(pick two Penn, Olson, Burres, Liz, J Miller, Hoey, Baez, Denz, McCrory, Waters, Simon, Bass or Bierd)
What would that hurt?
Millwood or padilla
floyd
guthrie *Much Better starting rotation
with Young at 2b or 3b in the future would be sweet. You still haven't done much to hurt the future and you would be more competitive now. Texas pitcher's are both one year deals with options.
The more I think about this, the more I don't like it. Because Roberts has only one year left on his contract we won't get fair value for him.
I'd rather enjoy watching this great ballplayer play one more year at least for the O's, then watching a guy who has put up one decent season among some average ones. Roberts is the real deal. Floyd could be another Rich Hill.
I think if Getz and Floyd for Roberts was mentioned it would have to be thought hard about but Floyd for Roberts alone is easily a no deal in my book. We don't want to be creating a hole just to fill another one.
I've found most Chicago fans are like us O's fan, a bit unrealistic about their players worth. That's OK. That's why I hope the O's resign Roberts. The guy is in tremendous shape and shows no signs of diminishing. If we lose him (along with the poor FO effort and ridiculous non-signing of Tex), we also will lsoe Markakis. What good is Floyd then? I'd rather take my chances with what we got this year and just sign a FA pitcher like Sheets.
Roch,
From what I read from other blogs/MB on possible Roberts trade, the returns range from Garko/Leffey (average) from Cleveland to Floyd (excellent) from Chicago.
Factoring the poor economy and the premium on prospects/cheap young players. Do you feel the return will be greater than the 2 draft picks compensation? Do you feel McPhail can pull off an "excellent" trade?
Thanks
I just can't see how this trade would make sense one for one. We'd be giving up an everyday player for one that plays every 5 days.Plus we simply need more bodies if we're going to move Brob.McPhail is going to have to take the sting out of losing BRob as far as fans are concerned so he'd have to get a Bedard type haul even if it meant we had to add players.Still,I'm wary of McPhail's judgement on young players. He seems to like raw talent,meaning power butignores how much they strike out or don't throw strikes.
Hey Roch!
I'm from Buffalo!I'm watching the international bowl.Buffalo at least has one team that has a winning footbal team!!!!!!!!!!!!
I just wish Babe Ruth oops I mean Brian Roberts would just go away.There isn't a team in Chicago that needs him that bad. Blame your owner (who must be gay) who loves Roberts and wouldn't deal him last year.This is just another fabricated story by a writer with nothing else to write about.
Ray - I didn't say I'd rather have Liz, Penn, or Olson over Floyd. All that I said was "I am not enamored with Floyd" and I would hope to get "a pitcher with better upside" for Roberts. Floyd does not strike out a lot of people, his walk rate is average, and he gives up his share of HR's. I don't expect him to be more than a #3/4 starter, and while he would be better than a lot of the current options, it would be nice to get a starter with ace potential - although that may not be possible (which I also recognized in my prior post).
hey Roch,
How bad are relations with Markakis? Was Angelos the one blocking a long term deal by low balling a true homegrown talent?
Please give us an update.
I do not see McPhail taking on Young and his 5 year $75 mil contract extension. Andy is trying to get rid of anyone over 30 making big money. Not trying to take on other teams huge contracts.
Doug - Maybe I wasn't totally clear. Rarely do players who are traded, with one year or less remaining on their contract, sign an extension with the team they are traded to. Johan Santana is an example of someone who did that, but he was overwhelmed by the Met'$$$$ offer and he was in New York. Sabathia, Texiera, Manny, and others they all want to go to the highest bidder.
It would be interesting to know Brian's answer to this question. If he could play anywhere in baseball, where would it be? He's from North Carolina so he's not going home. My quess would be the West Coast.
Roch - You assumed correctly
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Yeah, I went back and read your post again and saw that you directed it at one person. Sorry. - Roch
don't know about this trade. Floyd had one good season, but can he repeat it? I would like to explore some other options
Roch, have you heard of any interest in Eric Hinske or Orlando Husdsen?
Hey Jack, I don't think propaganding is a word. I think it would be propagating. And why are you still here, I thought you were giving up on the Orioles? I think if you can't see the inprovment in this organization from top to bottom, your blind, or just not looking!
I think AM has done a pretty good job. He has said it will take some time. Give him a chance! Look at the farm system, just a few years ago it was a wreck, now we have one of the better systems in baseball. Have some patient. Trust me, I don't like this any more than you do, but look at the big picture. When the O's were winning back in the 60's, & 70's they weren't out spending money like drunken sailors. They did it through the farm system, trades, and picking up a player here and there that could help.
I don't think we are going to be very good this year, and AM has said all along that we should look to 2010. So give him one more year, after 11 losing years, is one more going to kill you! Just think about The Angels fans, they waited forty years for them to win a World Series. Cubs fans are still waiting! You need to remember its a game, don't take it so seriously. The world is still rotating on its axes, the sun will still rise in the east! Have some fun with it. Better times will come, just not this year. Baby steps!
GO O's
Jack,
In many ways I agree w/ you, but your everlasting blasting of the FO suggests you should find another team to root for (and another blog please, though Roch may like the train wreck). Really! For YOUR good (I'm trying another approach), not ours.
I'm hoping that K. Williams has the assessment that Floyd is a 1-year wonder. If he did't think that, why would he trade him?
I think Floyd is scratching the surface of his potential, and NOW is the time to get him, or it will be too late. And of course I'd want more than him for Roberts. Take advantage of Williams' desires/ego to win it all again while he still has a job.
I personally think the stars just seem to align perfectly for the Sox to win for the 1st time in 80 some years. Abberation.
Roch do u like a good train wreck?
I am a life long White Sox fan and I had to think long and hard about this. I believe Floyd for Roberts makes sense (w/ a Roberts extension) for both teams. The last time we had a legitimate lead off man (Podsednik), we won a world series. You have to have the table setter. Kenny Williams recently picked up a lot of young arms, plus we have Poreda and Clayton Richards waiting in the wings. Overall, I trust Kenny's judgement. Oriole fans would be very happy w/ Floyd. He gave up some homers but not in big situations. Both parks are launching pads. At times he was simply unhittable.
Bill G,
After reading your coy little shots towards the White Sox, it appears you have some sort of personal problem/vendetta against them. Maybe you should follow your own advice and find somewhere else to post?
brian will never leave and if he does the orioles attendance will be nothing.
jack, if you hate the ORIOLES so much why dont you find yourself another team? maby the phillies. i mean it,people up here are hard core GIANTS/ATHLETICS fans and we are over 300 miles north of the bay area. me i will continue to watch/ listen (mlb.com)to as many ORIOLES games as my schedual allows. i see good things ahead!O-R-I-O-L-E-S