Is it time to Trade?
If you're waiting for an answer to the headline of this blog: YES, YES, YES.
For me its a slam dunk. I think that we have set the table, or at least are very close to defining the next ten years of Oriole baseball.
It's been a long time since we've seen this much starting pitching coming out of the minor league system, and I dont think we have seen the best of it yet.
I am so anxious to see Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman up here along with Brian Matusz. Two power guys and one in Matusz that has command of all his pitches.
There are other sleepers there also who are beginning to emerge and who are making things exciting for us all. We look at our outfield, and it has pretty much sured itself up with Jones, Markakis and Reimold, the last being the nicest surprise, for a long while.
Wieters has a choke hold on the catching position and looks like he can do nothing but get better. Now the rest is up for grabs.
How do we figure out which guys can bring us what we need to take control of the Eastern Division once again?
I'll start with my personal picks of guys that are very interesting for pennant contenders this year.
1.) George Sherrill: With the turnaround he has made, he has become very valuable, only because Jim Johnson in my mind has established himself as a possible closer of the future.
2.) Jeremy Guthrie: He's a possible candidate to offer because there are a lot of clubs who see his value in a different envoirnment.
3.) Brian Roberts: He is a quality position player who could draw a lot of attention from a contender and be worth a few good young prospects. Now the only reason I suggest B-Rob is because he has probably missed his window of opportunity to win with the O's and now that the nucleus is becoming much younger, having to wait two more years to contend may take Brian out of his prime and out of his value. I would hate to see him go, but it might be the best overall for the Orioles for the future.
4.) Aubrey Huff: He has already been mentioned, and along with Brian, he has a lot of value for a contender with DL issues. With Aubrey in the mix, he could help to get much needed positional prospects to build up our minor league system again.
5.) Melvin Mora: He has a big contract and might only attract minimal interest because of his age and is more of a fixture here who could play it out in any role with the O's .
What you would get in return remains to be seen. Any combination of these guys could land a deal that would match up with the ages of the players that we have accumulated up to now.
I'm not saying at all that if we stay with any of these guys that it will hurt the club. I am just suggesting that we could get stronger faster if the right deals are made.
I'm looking for the dynasty that we are definitely capable of putting together, and I want to see us be a power again, playing at the most beautiful stadium ever built for the best fans a city could have. See you at the Yard.
-Rick
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Categories (click for archive)MASNblogs | Rick Dempsey |
I think there's deals already in place with all the moves being made to Norfolk recently. Just too early to pull the trigger.I don't want to dump people for minor league filler,I want real deals to improve the team.We need a game changing middle of the order bat, a stud lefty reliever and a long term SS.
Hey Dipper how's it going? I might not have a problem trading someone like Huff, Wiggington, or Sherill, but I'd rather hold onto Brian Roberts. What's the use of signing him to an extention only to turn around and trade him? I'd like to hope that when all's said and done with, Brian Roberts might end up similar to Don Mattingly in that he'll get a taste of the post-season towards the end of his career. Admittedly I'm partial to Roberts because he's my favorite player on the team, but I still think that he has more value to us on the field than on the trading block. He's proven that he wants to be here and shown loyalty to the club by re-signing, so I'd rather keep him as our starting second baseman.
Incidentally, what a lift that Greg Zaun gave to the team last night with that HR in the 9th! If he would only start looking out of the dugout with a rally towel and asking the fans (Wild Bill) to start the cheers, he'd remind me a lot more of you!
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Domenic: Brian is one of my favorite players in all of baseball. His contract signing is what makes him so valuable because its a steal for the Orioles and anyone else right now. He has offensive abilities I only wish I could have had. He has a great swing, a good eye, he's confident and clutch. My one reservation for him is that he never bunts and draws the infield in on him. He is one of the quickest runners in the game and has proven to be one of the best base stealers. Bunting would, in the long run, produce more base hits and a higher OBP, also contributing to his overall average. He has the tools and the ability to be a solid .320 hitter. Dont misunderstand my baseball acumen--I DONT WANT TO SEE BRIAN GO, but if was a block buster deal that put us in contention now, I would do it. It's always about winning . --Rick
Hey Rick...
Let B-Rob go just ONE year without having to hear about being traded. I think he deserves that much, especially after signing that 4 year deal. With that contract, coupled with his being one of the faces of the franchise, I think he's pretty safe for the next few years.
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Carlos, It's part of the game, and it doesn't bother him anyway to know that other teams want him. It's rather complimentary. It's also a fact of baseball life and something a lot have to deal with. Don't forget it's not about B-Rob, its about the Orioles giving you a championship again. -Rick
B-Rob just signed for 4 years, obviosly MacPhail wants him here for a while. Roberts being traded = NO!
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Andrew, Brian deserved the 4-year deal. Let me ask you this though: If you could make a deal for B-Rob right now that could put us on top, would you do it? BTW I think the Orioles got the better of that 4-year deal for Brian. -Rick
HEY Rick,
Maybe we trade Luke Scott ? Great guy. The most hot /cold hitter I have ever seen . Could help a contender, hard to fit him in with th Os in the future.
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Dennis, Good thinking, but he is such a good supporting actor. -Rick
I would keep Huff and Sherrill. Sherrill could be that leftie in the bullpen if he doesnt close!!
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Shernorioles, Good physics if you have to make Johnson the closer. Sherrill is so valuable right now ,you could get a lot. Taking a back seat for him right now would mean he wasn't pitching well and therefore his value would be gone. A rule to remember is that it's always better to trade a player one year too soon rather than one year to0 late. -Rick
Huff and Mora should be traded; but how much will they get? Not much, so keep them around. Mora usually gets hot in the 2nd half and Huff will drive in 80-100 runs and scoring a few runs may help the young pitchers win a few games and see the value of their signing with the O's.
The farm has a few arms on the way, so let's keep a few guys around so the fans don't need a scorecard to tell who's playing.
The O's probably could have picked up so-so prospect for you and we're all glad they didn't.
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Greg, Thanks for the compliment. I had value, but most of it was the intangibles. They don't trade much for defense at any time in this game, but pitching and defense are what win games. You're a pleasure to talk to, thanks for the hit. -Rick
Your post made me feel like you know nothing about contract situations.
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Adam, Don't get mad here, but explain what you know about those contracts. And please explain what that all meant and why you are upset. Interested in your response. -Rick
I don't get the trade Jeremy Guthrie stance thats been said. All you would get in return now are low value prospects. I would think that if you wanted to trade him at all, you would have to do it when his value is high, not now. Besides, he is cheap, as is Sherill and as is Scott. The problem with the whole trade and trade and trade mentality is that not all trades are good. We have been lucky lately, but I'm not in any hurry to be the next partner in the next Glen Davis debaucle. I also don't think we should move Roberts. We have a couple decent prospects in the low system, and yes, Justin Turner has impressed people, but don't forget he's one of the premier leadoff men in baseball. Not to mention, besides Mora, he is one of the only people on the team who actively supports the community. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. (Unless we are talking Hayden Penn and Daniel Cabrera for AJ Burnett back in '05)
Shawn,
I totally agree, although I think that Guthrie might be coming out of his "funk." Even though he gave up four runs, he was a "hard luck looser" against the Mets last week, and he pitched a great game yesterday, surrendering one bad pitch. I'm glad that things worked out so that they were able to keep him in long enough to get the win. I'm not saying that his problems are necessarily over, but he's had two decent starts in a row.
B-Rob on the trading block? Was that supposed to be a joke? He just signed a 4-year contract, but you should probably know that...
all u guys that dont want the o's to trade sum old high priced veterans for sum good young cheap propects. dont want to see the o's get better.guys like jones,scott,andino,sherrill,have made this team better.u gotta give up sum old to get better. and reduce payroll. i trust andy to make the right moves, his done real well so far.in order to get better, the o's must be wiling to trade sum of those vets that are getting older and more costly by the day.
Nick,
It matters who you're talking about. If it's someone like Huff, I don't see a problem with that. I like Huff, and I'd like to see him stay here, but I think it would be much easier to justify trading him than it would be to justify trading someone like Brian Roberts. While they aren't that far apart in age, Roberts has been the face of the franchise for many years. You certainly want to do what's best to help improve the ballclub, but you also don't want to risk becoming like the Oakland A's have sometimes wound up...being a minor league team for other franchises. There's no point in the Orioles grooming a guy like Brian Roberts and making him into an all-star second baseman only to trade him away and let him be a major benefactor for someone else.
I would trade Brian Roberts. But only on one condition, that we get Evan Longoria in return.
Just not going to happen, almost every team that takes on any payroll is not going to give up prospects. Most teams aren't going to give up their prospects as it is now. Even the big spenders aren't willing to part with their best trade chips. Strictly economics.
If anyone goes I would think it would be Baez. Not that I want to see him go but if we can get prospects for him, then you have to. It's not going to be another Bradford situation though.
Roberts is going nowhere after signing that extension. First off he does have at least a limited no-trade clause that escalates I believe. Secondly, that would make no sense seeing how we have great pitching coming up in the next year. We signed him to be the 2B to back these kids up.
Hey Rick,
No go on trading Roberts. To much value to this team. However, a trade involving maybe Huff, (even though I like Aubrey), and maybe Sherril, could bring in a promising 3b. Mora won't go because he has no real value to anyone but the O's. He is a real asset to the Baltimore community. Wigginton could attract some interest, as he did hit 20 plus hr's last year. I don't think SS is a huge need, as both Adino and Isturus are really good defensively and both are hitting descent. #b is our greatest need, so unless they can get someone to fill that position, I say hold on to what we have. Do not make a trade just to be making a trade.
Domenic,
That "face of the franchise for many years" (B Rob) has been a face of a losing team. His lack of hustle and surliness must be traded for 4 or 5 major league or close prospects. His "value" will never be higher. Rick is right about building a power house. Most these present vets won't be a part of it. Keep getting younger! Go O's
I wouldn't trade Huff unless I was confident we have another power bat to replace his; I don't think we do. Look at the games Huff's won for us. Scott is too inconsistent to be considered a serious replacement.
Nebraska,
Yes the franchises of which he's been the face have been loosing ones. But I've seen BRob as a beacon of light in the darkness so to speak. With all due respect, I'm not sure where your comment about lack of hustle and surliness came from. The fact that people were so interested in Roberts the past couple of seasons should tell us that the guy's a good ball player. And he's proven that he's good in the community, which is part of what the Orioles have always been about.
Rick,
I have nothing but the greatest of respect for you and what you've done for 24 years with the O's and beyond. But I have to respectfully disagree in some areas with your post. Of course I'm not in sports, and you probably know way more about this than I do, but I've always thought, as with any sport, that sometimes when you get excited about making trades, and even when they happen, does that sometimes put us behind, almost as in taking steps backwards maybe before coming forward?
I know for the most part this is a guessing game when it comes to trades. You know better than me that if it works, you're a genius, and if it doesn't, then you'll be second-guessed for the rest of your career. I do agree about trading them now while their value is as good as it probably will get.
I think about the Adam Jones-Bedard, Sherrill trade (not sure if anyone else was involved in that trade), and of course, Seattle is surely feeling that one. There's no way to know whether that would work until it happens. But in your opinion, do you think that maybe if we get a little too excited about trading while our players' values are up, that could be us that gets rid of someone and they prosper with another team?
And of course I know that these are just individual scenarios and you're not meaning to trade everyone. Thanks for your time, and all you do at MASN.
why trade roberts he sets the table, he is the reason we do good alot of games
he gets on base and steals and gets in scoring position.
I agree with all of this except Roberts. If you are correct and Roberts is out of his prime in 2 years, then trade him. But I believe he has 4 to 5 years before that point, so I would keep him for all of his skills and to be the vet. Always gotta have them.
Demper,
I listened with great interest to your grand apologia last night on the Orioles postgame show regarding this particular blog. Apparently, you've been feeling some heat over, which is probably well deserved.
Anyway, if I may be so bold as to summarize in the most basic terms possible what you were saying last night: The Orioles should be willing to trade anyone if the offer is good enough.
I will accept this statement as a baseball truism. However, it is so self evident that it hardly warrants anyone writing a blog about it. The problem is, when you tie it to a favorite player, all you're doing is provoking the masses and getting our dander up.
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Abington, There was no apology, just a clarification of what was actually said. It's right there in writing for you to peruse. You're right about one thing, its not such a big deal to talk about who would be good trade bait. Start with your most valuable players and you'll find out who gets offered first. Baseball routine. Rarely does it ever happen. BTW Let me ask you, if the right deal was offered would you trade B-Rob? -Rick
I heard you clarify on the Scott and Anita show and then again on the postgame. There is a reason people got a little shaken up with your blog.
It is certainly not because I am unwilling to trade players. If Tampa wanted to give us Longoria and Price for Markakis, you do that deal (I am well aware this would never happen).
The problem is not that most Oriole fans are unwilling to trade Brian or anyone else for that matter. The problem is that your blog felt like you just needed something to talk about so you slapped something up there. It was not very well researched.
"I will accept this statement as a baseball truism. However, it is so self evident that it hardly warrants anyone writing a blog about it. The problem is, when you tie it to a favorite player, all you're doing is provoking the masses and getting our dander up."
I agree with this Abingdon
By the way, it is Jason Berken not BERKENS.
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Adam, What was needed to research? It's strictly based on routine baseball knowledge. Divide the team up between TOUCHABLES and UNTOUCHABLES and it's self explanatory. Also, what would you like to talk about instead?--just a topic at the time of the trading deadline. BTW thanks for the BERKEN correction, I'll try harder. Lets talk some more. -Rick
It is clear that baltimore orioles have some options but every talks about trading huff, george, but what about our manager trembly his contract is up at the end of the year also
Remember, it's always better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late (example: the O's traded Bedard at the correct time). This could be true with Roberts. His trade value is probably considerably higher now than it will be in a year or two.
"Domenic: Brian is one of my favorite players in all of baseball. His contract signing is what makes him so valuable because its a steal for the Orioles and anyone else right now. He has offensive abilities I only wish I could have had. He has a great swing, a good eye, he's confident and clutch. My one reservation for him is that he never bunts and draws the infield in on him. He is one of the quickest runners in the game and has proven to be one of the best base stealers. Bunting would, in the long run, produce more base hits and a higher OBP, also contributing to his overall average. He has the tools and the ability to be a solid .320 hitter. Dont misunderstand my baseball acumen--I DONT WANT TO SEE BRIAN GO, but if was a block buster deal that put us in contention now, I would do it. It's always about winning . --Rick"
Hey Rick, sorry I didn't see your response before now. I do agree about bunting. However, how often do lead off guys have to lay one down? Certainly later in the game it's a good tool to have, and as I said I agree that it wouldn't hurt him to learn how to do it. ME, misunderstand YOUR baseball acumen?...c'mon man, you got to do things that I could have only dreamed about doing in little league! Incidentally, don't sell yourself short...you're without a doubt the best catcher EVER in Oriole history in my mind. And anybody that won a World Series MVP isn't absent of offensive abilities! As I referenced in my comments about Greg Zaun, the sight of you standing on the steps of the 3rd base dugout at Memorial Stadium waving the towel towards Wild Bill in section 34 will always be fresh in my mind. I'm sorry if my response came across as terse...I suppose that's the problem with a lot of this online stuff in that you can't see people's faces or hear their tones of voices when responding to these blogs. Thanks for all of your work on the field and off!
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Dominic, No offense taken. We're talking baseball, thats a great thing. I enjoy talking to you. Thanks for the hit. -Rick
"worth a few good young prospects. Now the only reason I suggest B-Rob is because he has probably missed his window of opportunity to win"
At what point do you stop accumulating prospects and go with a sure thing? Like the old adage, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Brian is better now than most other 2nd basemen in the league (and will be for several more years), so what prospects would you want that might have the potential to be better? Also he is still young, so I doubt that he has missed his window of opportunity to win, unless you don't think the O's will be competitive for another 5 years. I think they will begin to be competitive next year, maybe two.
So, of your list, Brian is the one to keep.
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Chuck, You could very well be right. Thanks for the hit. -Rick
Demper, I don't necessarily undersand the people who said your post wasn't well researched? Seems to me like you were just tossing a few names out there, and you didn't even say that those were the five guys you'd go out and trade tomorrow. All you said was that they were guys who would be "interesting for pennant contenders". Whether the Orioles (or their fans) would want to trade B-Rob or not, it's simply a true statement that other teams would want Brian. I'm as big a Brian Roberts fan as anyone, but I'm surprised that comment provoked such a response from other fans? Thanks for being willing to put your thoughts out there despite people's responses at times.
Demper,
Please let me clarify. I didn't write "apology". The word I used was "apologia" which is a statement of explanation or a defense that someone makes for what they have said, written, or done. I purposely chose this word, since it has a neutral connotation. "Apology" has a negative connotation. Please believe me, I had no delusion that you were in any way apologizing.
Regarding your question, of course the operative word is "right". In my mind, "right" means that the trade benefits both the club and the player. I think Brian Roberts has earned that degree of consideration, but that's just my opinion and not the conventional way of viewing a baseball trade. In the real world, players are little more than chattel and are moved around like pawns on a chess board. If the trade put Brian with a team that had a good chance of going to the World Series and that's what Brian wanted, then so be it. I certainly wouldn't want to hold him back.
Hey Rick,
Did all the rain soak your brain? Yes, the direction the Orioles are going is with young players, but getting rid of Roberts makes absolutely no sense. You can't have all youngsters. Youngsters must have players on the team that they look up to and learn from. They can not have just coaches to do this. I am sure that Brian is a mentor both on and off the field to many players.
By the way I did see Zuan's name in you list of players to go. Of couse you wouldn't be able to get much more that a some old socks for him.
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Steve: Try and remember what happened when we traded Bedard to Seattle--who did we get for him? Who did we get for Tejada ? Tejada hit over 300 with 150 rbi's , Bedard had ligitimate 15--to 20 game winner potential (LHP). We'd be in real trouble if we hadn't made those trades. Now if Brian could draw those kind of returns I say make the deal (3 or 4 for one). And by the way--(not b/c he's my nephew), but your wrong about Zaun too--he has alot of value still even as a back-up . There's still not 3 catchers starting in the AL who can catch as well as he does..
Hello Demper,
I agree with what you have to say if deals are right, especially since we have young depth coming along, and for the first time in years, with real promise. Going with your one year too late theory, Sherrill is probably peaking right now. He reminds me too much of Stanhouse anyway to be a long term closer possibility. Stanhouse drained me of 10 years of my life from stress, don't have another 10 to give. Besides Johnson, I think Koji might be a lights out closer. First time through the line-up, until they can time him, he's especially effective.
What about Itzuris? Andino has been very impressive. No, I don't think he's the "long term" guy if you're looking for power and bat, but then again neither is Caesar, both, however, can pick and poke and are fast. Given playing time, and I'm a Caesar fan, I think both are very good SS's, but Caesar might draw more interest. Also, if we keep Sherrill because we don't get enough for him, what about Baez?
Finally, in defense of you, and I'm a big B-Rob fan, his contract makes him MORE attractive that Huff, because you're not renting a quality, quality player. He's yours for a good few year run at contention.