Sizing up the Birds at the Break
Here's my take on the Orioles' play so far this season.
The offense
When I look at the players in the O's lineup, I feel the offense should be scoring more runs than it is.
In the first half, the O's were shut out six times and scored three runs or less 33 times. It's hard to win when you can't score more than that. The club doesn't rank very high in the AL in any offensive category.
The Birds are 6th in batting average, 10th in runs, 7th in doubles, 10th in homers and last in stolen bases.
The O's do not fare well in situational hitting and aren't great at advancing runners, in fact they are next to last in the AL in sac bunts.
Actually, there is one category where the Orioles lead the league - they have struck out less than any team. I'm not sure what to make of that, but we'll take it as a positive.
The O's offense was amazing at times in April when the top three in the order were taking pitches, getting on base in droves and letting the middle of the order knock them in. They averaged 5.3 runs per game in the first month, their best month of the year so far.
As the season went on, the O's power fell off. Melvin Mora went 50 games without a homer, while Adam Jones has just one in his last 40 games and Nick Markakis has homered just twice in the last 57 games. The O's hit 59 homers in the first two months, but have just 28 since.
Offense by month:
April: .273 ave, .352 OBP, 5.3 runs per game
May: .267 ave, .322 OBP, 4.6 runs per game
June: .281 ave, .337 OBP, 4.2 runs per game
July: .216 ave, .284 OBP, 4.4 runs per game
The Pitching
Unlike the offense, the team's pitching had its worst month in April, and, for the most part, has gotten better the rest of the year.
The rotation on Opening Day was Guthrie, Koji, Simon, Hendrickson and Eaton. Now it's Guthrie, Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez and Hill.
The infusion of the three rookies has pumped some life into the rotation and all three are O's draft picks who have shown some polish and poise. The changing of the guard has begun here and we haven't even seen the club's top pitching prospects yet. We might see Chris Tillman in the second half though.
The bullpen has real potential. Matt Albers and Danys Baez hold down the middle innings and the club has a (potentially) top-notch late-game duo in Jim Johnson and George Sherrill. After Sherrill's closer status was threatened early in the year, he went on a major roll. Brian Bass has been solid in long relief and Mark Hendrickson looks much better in a relief role.
The pen's biggest issue has been its innings load. The O's starters have worked among the fewest innings in the league, so the pen has handled among the most innings in the league.
When this unit can get rest and pitch it its proper roles, it can be the strength of the club.
ERA by month:
April: 5.89
May: 4.83
June: 4.55
July: 5.13
The defense
The O's don't score that high here either. They are 9th in the AL in fielding percentage and only four clubs in the league made more errors in the first half.
The O's had many mental lapses on defense in the first half, such as dropping pop ups that should have been caught and outfielders throwing to the wrong base or taking poor routes to a ball in the gap.
On defense, the O's play does not seem to add up to the sum of its pieces.
They should be very solid up the middle in the infield and in Markakis and Jones, they should have two top-notch outfield defenders.
But Markakis has not had his usual outstanding year on defense - not a bad one by any stretch, but not Gold Glove caliber this time.
Jones sometimes plays too shallow in center and Nolan Reimold is a work in progress in left.
The Orioles should have played Reimold in left all last year at Bowie, but he never really played in left until last fall's Arizona Fall League.
Overall, you get the feeling the O's can and will be better defensively in the second half.
The manager
The next 74 games will tell us whether Dave Trembley will return as skipper next year. It's not about the wins and losses. It's about how hard he can get the team to play and if he can get the team, especially veterans who should know better, to stop making foolish mistakes.
The O's base running was horrible in the first half. They didn't steal many bases and got cut down on the bases far too many times.
Can the team sharpen its play from here on in? That's where Trembley comes in and can make a difference, and it just might get him another contract to continue managing the Baltimore Orioles.
 |
Categories (click for archive)Orioles News | Steve Melewski |
Steve,
I would have to agree on Trembley, I'm not looking for the O's to make the playoffs but what I am looking for is more passion and to see them make the plays they SHOULD make. The Coach should be able to get this out of them. If their base running, fielding, and offense altogether is as poor in the second half as it was in the first half, then I think it's time we look to go in a different direction.
Steve,
I love the blog. Could you guys at MASN do us a favor? I access the blog from the MASN home page. When I click on the title of the day's blog, it takes me directly to the Archives rather than the actual blog itself. For those of us with slow computers, it takes a while to load the Archives page. The way that Roch's blog is set up works great. We click on the title and it goes straight to the blog article and gives us the last 5 blogs. We also have the option to go the Archives if we so choose. I would read your blog more if it didn't take so long to load, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. Your blog is great though, which is why I am willing to wait a couple of minutes for your page to load. Keep up the good work.
Thanks,
Sam
_____________________________________________________
I think our management is working on that to help you and others out. Steve
Steve- The big thing is, Huff is the righties are just not cutting it. And for some reason, the power numbers are just gone. I keep waiting for Markakis to explode and it just doesn't happen, despite the 57 RBIS, which is very good.
I think you might be a little hard on him about his defense. He makes every play, he can't help it if the dives and slides are not as plentiful. I still see the Assist as one of the biggest plays in baseball. It is an out instead of a run half the time, it ends innings on a hit, when who knows what would have happened next, and, it holds runners in the future just because the ball was hit to that player. How many times do we see guys not even tag on a medium fly to right? They are runs left on the field. I still think he deserves one just for getting mooped out of it last year.
Steve
I had a conversation yesterday about the O's and we agreed that they aren't a very bad team but they aren't a very good team either. Nice to see new young talent being added and they could become a pretty good team. Looking forward to Tillman being called up soon
Excellent analysis Steve. It seems like this team is always finding a new way to sabotage itself. When the offense hits, the pitchers struggle and vice versa. Thanks for bringing up the situational hitting stats. I've felt like this has been a team weakness during the Terry Crowley era and changes need to be made. Theres also not really any good reason why we should be dead last in the league in stolen bases. Those two areas are ones in which the club desperately needs to improve upon if they want to see their offensive numbers go up. We cannot keep relying on 3 hits to score a single run. Finally, I believe Trembley needs to go due to the multitude of mistakes made by the team. This is just my guess, but I'd say poor fundamentals have cost us at least 4 games so far this year. If that can be turned around suddenly things aren't so grimm.
The lack of home runs can be attributed to the "Crowley" school of hitting. He teaches a short quick stroke that will provide more hitting opportunities but with a lot less power. That this team does not hit for power is the way they are being trained to swing, Playing in a park that should be known for it's home runs with a number of guys who can hit with power there is no explanation other than the way they are being taught. Reimold is a perfect example. He arrives here hitting the long ball and for the first month hits nine home runs. But when Crowly gets to him suddenly he looks completely lost as he tries to change the way he swings the bat.
the bright spots are the young kids..bergesen, hernandez, berken who hasn't pitched great but seems to have some talent, jones,reimold, wieters and andino. huff has played well. wiggy does a decent job. the bad..no power overall, poor defense, poor base running and a manager who lacks really good baseball instincts and over-manages. no power from nick and mora. lately mora has been playing third like a hockey goalie blocking balls. guthrie has been less than good and i think should be traded if they could get some value for him. bullpen has been inconsistent. roberts defense and base running leave something to be desired. what's needed by next yr is a third baseman, probably a first baseman because i expect huff to be traded. probably 2 more starters with berken going to the bullpen. i wouldn't expect much from koji if he comes back this yr and next yr i would hope they put him in the bullpen. you would hope between arrieta, matusz and tillman 2 of them will work out though they really need all 3 to work out.
Steve,
Do you have any plans to go see Matt Hobgood pitch this summer?
Thanks.
I posted this on Roch's blog earlier, but it's probably more apropos of your entry Steve--
So, are the O's better, worse or about the same as you thought they would be by the All-Star break?
For me, the record is about where I thought it might be, if not a little better. And, overall, I would definitely say the team is better than I thought it would be at this point. Although Nick, BRob, Huff and definitely Guthrie and Mora are underperforming, the emergence of Bergensen and promise of Hernandez definitely have made the rotation picture much brighter than we started out. Even Hill and Berken are an improvement over the Eaton, Hendrickson, Simon triumvrate and the stop-gaps of years past. Scott's huge first half, Jones's emergence as an All-Star and Reimold's solid start, all have exceeded expectations. Wieters is getting his bearings and performing pretty solidly while doing so. The bench play too has been much better than in the past. Wiggy, Andino and even Pie have contributed off the bench, as has Salazar of late. I'm no Zaun fan, but he has hit more lately too. Solid back ups have eluded this team since the Jim Dwyer days. Finally, the bullpen has really turned into a terrific unit, with Bass, Hendrickson and Albers in the middle, Baez in the 7th, JJ in the 8th and Sherrill in the 9th. Sure they have blown some games, but every pen does that. More often they have kept us in it when the starters have not lasted past 5+ innings. To have six guys who all are doing their jobs well out there is a big bonus--particularly given our starting pitching.
I'm still not sold on Trembley as the manager long-term, but, if Tillman and maybe Arrieta can bolster the rotation in the second half, with Matusz on the horizon for perhaps the middle of next year (Patton too perhaps), we are a couple of corner infielders away from having the pieces in place to finally start playing games that matter in the second half of the year. Give me Beltre and Brandon Snyder (platooning w/ Luke??) and let's get started with 2010 (right after the Ravens win the Super Bowl).
I cannot find fault with your analysis. Straight forward and to the point. Good job.
One problem with the Orioles' offense is, and for years has been, Terry Crowley's aggressive approach. When your hitting coach tells hitters to expand the strike zone on 2-0 (as Buck Martinez mentioned during a broadcast last season), which is the exact opposite of what a hitter should do on that count, your team will give away many at-bats, which is what the Orioles do (for one example, look at some of the 2-0 pitches Adam Jones swings at.) Crowley doesn't stress the value of walks and OBP, thus the O's have consistently ranked in the bottom third of the league in runs and OBP during his tenure.
Meanwhile, the Yankees and Red Sox are stressing the importance of making pitchers work, and forcing them to throw strikes. Same philosophy Earl Weaver had - if you don't get thrown strikes, take the walk and let the next guy drive you in. No matter how good our pitching gets, if our offense doesn't also get near the top of the league, we won't make the playoffs (look at the O's World Series teams - all ranked at or near the league best in runs as well as ERA.)
Trembley's aggressiveness on the bases is another problem that leads to giving away too many outs. Better to be conservative than to run yourself out of so many innings. As Earl said, you only get 27 outs.
As for strikeouts, the O's low number indicates they have too few long at-bats that could result in strikeouts and walks. In almost all situations, a strikeout is just an out, and a strikeout is better than a double play. Crowley would never want a hitter like Adam Dunn, despite his 40 homers and .400 OBP, because he strikes out too much for Crowley's taste (remember, Crowley told Calvin Pickering, who came from AAA with 30+ homer power, an upper .200s average, and .400 OBP, plus a lot of strikeouts, that he'd have to change his approach to stay with the Orioles. Pickering got more aggressive at the plate, and was never the same again.)
OriAl,
Couldn't agree with you more. I think the over-aggressiveness tends to hurt the pitching as well. A lot of times you'll see someone like Berken or Hill have a rough inning in the 4th, throwing 20+ pitches, but get out of the inning unscathed. Then the offense comes up and the other team gets out of the inning with 6 or 8 pitches or so. The pitcher doesn't really get his bearings back and in the next inning, he goes out and gives up 3 or four runs. It seems like it happens a lot with this team.
On Friday, I thought things were looking different in the first two innings when they had Cecil throw about 50 pitches. Then, somehow, he ends up getting through 6 without allowing a run. That is ridiculous. Sure he threw a lot more first pitch strikes in the subsequent innings, but his control wasn't exceptional and we were giving away outs. In the first game of a series especially, you should be looking to build up that pitch count and get to the pen as early as possible. Get the pen to throw a lot of pitches and when you face them again throughout the next few days, they'll be softer.
It really frustrates me when you see guys swinging on 2-0 sliders breaking down out of the zone. You would think in a count like that, you could sit on a fastball in the middle or a hanging breaking ball and just let everything else go. So what if he throws a ball down for a strike? Now the count is 2-1 and still in your favor. I'm not saying every batter should be looking to walk out there, but when opposing starting pitchers are consistently going 7 innings against us.
I have to stop for now. I'm getting too frustrated.
_______________________________________________
I think some of the players worked the count better in April and the offense was really clicking. Need to do more of that. Steve
Hello steve, I liked the post. I would like to say I agree on your acessment. but I would like to see more run down to first base and more effort in there play. and morefire or heart about winning. this team sometimes act as though they don't have the desire to win like other teams do. this is not he minors. this is the MAJORS LEAGUE and this team needs to shape up and get with it. this is where Dave Trembley comes in and needs to hold these guys or men accountable. for what they do on the field good or bad. its not all about winning but how you play the game and I just would like to see the Orioles play the Orioles way again!!! this team is better than they have shown in the first half of the season. I like to see us get to .500 ball or better thats my desire and I pray the team want to get to a winning season also. thanks for the post and keep up the good work.
The accepted abbreviation for average is avg, not ave.
Someone please help me with this. Why do so many people say we need both corner infielders replaced? I can see why people are down on Mora. (I attribute his lapses as a lack of respect for the manager; him and others, esp veterans.) On the other side you have Huff a proven commodity and Salazar who has been terrific in 2 seasons here. Also at first you have to consider Wiggington which is what they will get (a very similar player - production wise) if they bring in someone new, especially in the middle of the season. Snider is doing great and I would love to see him, but he is an unknown. Again, what else is out there. No offense to the blogger who said Beltre, but he is no better than anythng that we have here right now and would cost plenty more; I just don't get that argument. I think the problem is lack of respect for the manager, other than the rotation, which is basically the determining factor in how a team will do, the O's are good enough to be competing in this and any division if they play the right way. No douby about it!!!!
Steve,
Excellent summary.
The following sentence had great significance for me because it underscores what I have suspected about the organization's opinion of Nolan Reimold prior to this season:
"The Orioles should have played Reimold in left all last year at Bowie, but he never really played in left until last fall's Arizona Fall League."
Steve, did you have the impression that the O's were not sold on Nolan's upside? I certainly don't know for a certainty; however, if they were not, my guess is that the front office devalued him because of his injury and the age at which he made it to AA.
_______________________________________________________
I don't think they undervalued him. They were playing Lou there and Nolan where he played his whole career in right. But I felt he should have played some in left, even if he didn't play there every day. They felt that alignment worked for that Bowie team, but maybe is wasn't in the best interests of Nolan's future, since he's still somewhat green in left. - Steve
Steve,
I like your take, especially on the baserunning and on Trembley's situation. There is one other positive as far as batting goes... the O's actually lead the AL in Average with runners in scoring position:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1¶ms=bases|RISP|AL|2009|bat|AB|
I heard them mention this on TV a few times over the past month or 2, but I'm surprised they're still holding first place there. Hopefully it continues as the weather and offense heats up, and they can start scoring more runs in the second half.
Jeff
_________________________________________________________
It's a good point Jeff and probably should have been mentioned. It's kind of amazing that they do lead in that stat, yet sitll come up short in scoring runs so often. The second half will hopefully be better in that regard. Thanks for pointing that out. - Steve