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"Only nine of the 121 pitchers used this decade have a record above .500 with the Orioles (a minimum of five wins)."

This could be the most telling stat...EVER>.

Roch,

We have to find you an off season hobby buddy.

Any chance you'll pull out one of those weird stats like what a player's batting average is when the O's are playing at home wearing the alternative black jerseys with less than 20,000 fans in the stands and playing on an odd numbered calendar date?

=)

A telling stat, no doubt. But that Bergesen and Matusz are on that list, and during a year that we almost lost 100 games, two rookies gave admirable performances and promise for the future - Encouraging!

Thanks for all you do, Roch.

Roch,

The winning percentage for 1 or 2 run games was .403 (29/72). The overall winning percentage was .395 (64/162). Therefore, we should be SLIGHTLY (VERY SLIGHTLY) encouraged by the fact that we had better killer instinct in close games!

Roch,
You are working over time here stat man to come up with this stuff (and yes I'm laughing and crying as I read these). It is a little encouraging that we were close in most games and you just hope that by the young guys improving we can get over the hump, it also reinforces that we are being DESTROYED by our division. Any chance we can switch places with the Nationals? They are pretty much screwed either way..........

Roch - does that pitchers stat include just their record for this decade? So that Mussina with a losing record with the Orioles in 2000 would not count even though his overall record with the Orioles is well over .500?

Now I gotta go figure out who some of the others are. Didn't expect homework after the season.
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I'm confused. You're saying 2000 doesn't count in this decade? - Roch

Roch,

You've identified what went wrong.... the 2009 Orioles were horrendous in every aspect.

On a side note. What kind of numbers do you think Bedard will be looking for and what will he get this offseason? I think he is worth a shot. When healthy he is as dominate as any pitcher in the AL. A rotation of Bedard, Guthrie, Bergenson, Matusz & Tillman looks pretty nice on paper.
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I couldn't even begin to guess what Bedard wants. Haven't had one conversation with him since the trade. Doubt anyone really knows at this point. - Roch

Who are the other 5 Roch? I thought about guessing but realized I have no shot. Only name that pops out is Bedard, but not positive even on that. Rodrigo Lopez?
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I only know the current guys, courtesy of the O's PR staff. I'll bug them for the rest. - Roch

Good thing the minimum win total wasn't 10.

np: "Always Look on the Bright Side of Life," Monty Python

Love the brightside, Roch! Thanks for reminding folks that Rich Hill already dominated for a year, it wasn't like taking a flyer on ME.

Did anyone else see that GIFT of a strikeout call that Stan's Dad (Randy Marsh) gave Nathan v. Polanco? I was totally rooting Twins, but was actually glad that blown call (one of many, if you ask me, Marsh was terrible all regular season, too) didn't really factor into the outcome.

Brian -- Fair points re: Amber, and I mentioned I was sure that visuals matter in TV. But compare your points to the folks on here who couldn't deliver a report on their own lunch, but felt they should judge Amber's right to the job simply because her report disagreed with whoever their favorite reporter is -- and because she's an attractive female. Reporting includes interpretation; that hers was different doesn't mean she doesn't know what she's doing. At the VERY least, if you compare her to other reporters in which looks may be a factor (like that Nationals MASN lady? Remember Hannah Storm? Willow Bay?), I think she destroys them all. And I mean in reporting...

Reid -- Didn't learn to drive in MD, but I've heard that (allegedly due to the centrality of I-95 in the state, not that it should matter) that young MD drivers are NOT taught to stay right going slower, left going faster, but to just mosey along in whatever lane they feel like. I'm sure that even if I heard right, that's no comfort to you. I apologize for the citizenry.

Who are the other 5? Mike Mussina, Rodrigo Lopez, and Erik Bedard come to mind. A quick internet search reveals Buddy Groom was over .500 as an Oriole. Who am I missing?
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You got me. I only know the current guys. - Roch

I blame our failures the last twelve years on interleague play. 1997 can be explained as beginner's blessings.

You need a vacation.

Here it is, October 7th and I thought baseball for "me" was over.

The entries will probably drop to one or two a day but I'm not at all surprised and thrilled that you're still here droppin' entries daily.

Appreciate it dude!

That's a whole lotta stat-speak for a SofR post. I was told there would be no math. Tell me that you looked up every one of those stats, pored over every single box score from this season, and you'll get a pass.
In the interest of "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em" or a variation on that theme, how 'bout signing Andy Freaking Marte (the middle name he's more commonly referred to here in CLE is unprintable for this family show) for a year? Without Wedge, he's less of a certainty to be gone, but he's out of options and he either has to become Mark Teixera or stop eating McDonald's to ensure his spot in 2010s opener. He'd stop homering against us, at the very least. Meh. I'm just looking for 1yr guys. And I'm not talking about the shelf life of guys I date.

PS Roscoe.... shoot an email over to our friend the OCJ.
PPS JDB.... are you up to your old tricks (usually found in chapters 4, 5, and 6)? Suspicious mail package at work today...

No matter how you spin the stats and numbers, this team REGRESSED in the win/loss column by FIVE games and LOST 98 games, the worst performance since '88.

We can sit around and say " if only" in all these one run games. Thats what ANDREW and this front office want you to do. Keep thinking that success is right over the next mountain. "If only" we performed better in all those close games. "If only" we held a lead a bit longer. They want you to think that with one last great shove or leap, we'll get over the success mountain and suddenly be .500 or better.

Keep on trucking guys.

Jack, me and few other realists on here will simply say "If only" Ole Pete spent some of that extra $27m in revenue Dandy Andy brought in over the past two years. "If only" Andrew signed some winners rather than retreads.

"Anyway, did you know that 72 of the Orioles' 162 games (44 percent) this season were decided by two runs or fewer? They went 29-43."

To me, that means that the Orioles haven't figured out how to manufacture wins -- in other words, how to scratch out runs by moving runners along by hitting to the right side when necessary, etc. It seemed like once a game, the Orioles got a leadoff double and that runner never moved off of second base all inning.

I'm guessing this isn't uncommon with young teams, just like a poor road record isn't uncommon.

JackDunn: Thank you for putting the clown Tom C in his place.

If I were you, for his punishment I would have added " Being forced to read nothing but baseball posts and perspectives from Jack and Brummie_Oriole [ we really get under his skin] for an eternity."

I hate to spoil the roses and lollipop party. The Orioles were simply a terrible team who played up to their potential. You cant expect them to be contenders when Andrew goes out and gets re-treads or oft injured players. Koji, Hill, Simon, Eaton, Freel...boy this could go on forever.

Quanity doesnt mean a thing unless there is quality in there. And the media was going gaa gaa over how Andrew brought in 30 pitchers at spring training. Oh my, he has so much depth. Turns out he brough in 25 "L" losers! How about a couple decent pitchers this year to suppliment the legit prospects? Losing gets old after a while Andrew....12 years worth!

Thanks Roch, my only conern with you posting these stats is if they fall in the hands of Hunter. He will use these to paint an even rosier picture. Please someone hit the mute when he is spreading his propagandering BS! I love your hot stove show. But when I see him on there, click, the channel is instantly turned.

If you look closely at the stats you mentioned, Luke said it best. These stats really expose the orioles weakness to manufacture runs.

Several years ago a politician coined the phrase.. "it's the economy, stupid". I forget who it was...(joking)

Anyway....it doesn't take much of a glance at the American League team stats for 2009 to see that with the Orioles...it was the PITCHING!

Forget about Mora, Crowley, Pie....etc. It was the PITCHING! The Orioles were right there for almost every negative statistical category.

Maybe I should be more specific....it was the PITCHERS. The Orioles have had 3 very highly regarded pitching coaches over the last several years. The problem for all of them was that they had too many minor league caliber arms.

Take a look at the team batting averages in the AL for '09. The Rays, Tigers, Blue Jays, Rangers, White Sox and Mariners were all below the Orioles.

Until the Orioles shed themselves of castoff pitchers and career minor leaguers, it's not going to matter if there's a power hitting third baseman, first baseman or whatever.

AR dee Said

roch

would tyhis be acceptable for 2010.

hr. rbi. avg.
cakes 20-30 115=125 310-320
reimold 20-30 100-115 290-310
wieters 15-25 110-120 310-320
brob 10-15 80-90 280-290
jones 20-25 90-100 280-290
luke 20-30 80-90 260-270
izuritis 5-10 55-65 270-275
m, aubrey 10-15 50-60 280-290
??? 15-25 75-85 240-250

wins
guthrie 17
bergy 16
matusz 20
tillman 15
??? 12-15

slogan for 2010

remember 89 lets do it again in 2010

DAMN YOU GLOBAL WARMING!! DAMN YOU!!

I think the more telling stat is 7-29 against New York and Boston.

A well respected baseball analyst was once asked how do you judge a manager. He said one third of the games a team plays are won by a big enough margin that the moves the manager makes rarely effects the outcome. Likewise one third of the games a team plays are lost by a big enough margin that the moves a manager makes rarely effects the outcome. So it is the one third of the games that are close that the manager can make a difference. So look at the team's won and lost record in 1 and 2 run games and that will tell whether you have a good or bad manager. FWIW

Jim Carter said:

Until the Orioles shed themselves of castoff pitchers and career minor leaguers, it's not going to matter if there's a power hitting third baseman, first baseman or whatever.

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So... Matusz, Tillman, Guthrie, and Bergesen (and to a lesser extent Hernandez and Berken) are castoffs and career minor leaguers. Niiiiiiice. Tough to argue with that logic, since it's non-existent.

You make the Werth for Bale trade sound bad, but you have to remember that Werth was blocked at catcher since the Orioles had just traded for Brook Fordyce! That just makes it worse, right? Can you believe that one too? I don't see how anyone complains about MacPhail, when looking back at the wreckage that Wren, Thrift, Flanny and Duquette left.

Schoolman,
Someone slipped a change of pace past you. My research revealed the following (Bold copy indicates .500 pitchers with five or more victories.)

ORIOLES PITCHERS OVER .500 THIS DECADE
2000: JOSE MERCEDES 14-7 / BUDDY GROOM 6-3
2001: 0
2002: R.LOPEZ 15-9 / TRAVIS DRISKIL 8-8 / WILLIS ROBERTS 5-4
2003: JASON JOHNSON 10-10 / S.PONSON 14-6
2004: R.LOPEZ 14-9 / D.CABRERA 12-8 / J.PARRISH 6-3
2005: R.LOPEZ 15-12 / B.CHEN 13-10 / TODD WILLIAMS 5-5
2006: E.BEDARD 15-11 / A. LOEWEN 6-6 / KURT BIRKINS 5-2
2007: E.BEDARD 13-5 / J.GUTHRIE 7-5
2008: 0
2009: B.BERGESEN 7-5 / M.HENDRICKSON 6-5 / B.BASS 5-3 / B.MATUSZ 5-2

TOTALS: 15 pitchers over .500 with a minimum of five wins.

BRUMMIE,
You just won’t stop providing examples of carelessness that must drive your proof reader to distraction. You know better than to write: “Jack, me and few other realists … .”

You should have written: “Jack, I, and a few other realists … .”

I realize that this is fairly insignificant, and it doesn’t mean that you are deficient as a person; however, the Archives are chock-a-block with evidence of your uncontrolled* split personality – one is meek and convivial, the other dyspeptic and insufferable.

Ann Marie queries:
PPS JDB.... are you up to your old tricks (usually found in chapters 4, 5, and 6)? Suspicious mail package at work today...

A.M.,
What the devil are Chapters 4-6? The package is quite innocent; you are suspicious!

Jack, continuing his battle with idiomatic English, said:
“I hate to spoil the roses and lollipop party.”

Jack- Your ability to turn a phrase reminds me of the biting satire of the Sage of Baltimore H.L. Mencken – racist, misogynistic, and anti-Semitic; and, as the saying goes, “those were his good points.”
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It's pitchers above .500. - Roch

So we signed some kid from Guatemala ( I didn't know they played baseball there) and his best trait is that he can " run fast to first base."

Always a plus I guess. LOL

Another cheap signing who will get lit up when he has to play against REAL talent.

But we have a presence in Guatemala now, so progress with "The Plan" is being made.

Roch,

After doing some research, here are some more facts. In the each of the past three years there has been a team that won between 60 and 70 games in a season and improved by at least 15 games the following season. In fact, in the last 40 years, there have been 37 such teams (roughly one per year which give hope that .500 in '10 is possible).

The common denominator of all three recent teams, the '07 Cubs, the '08 Rays, and the '09 Mariners, all reduced there runs scored by over 100 runs (Cubs -144, Rays -273!, Mariners -119). These same three teams combined to score FEWER runs in their better season (Cubs +36, Rays -8, Mariners -31). This is consistent through all 37 teams; they improved the Runs Allowed at a greater rate than Runs Scored.

Jim Carter is right..it's the pitching stupid. The last four year, we've been second to last in runs allowed until this year when we finally got over the hump and finished dead last. Our pitching was so bad that a 100 run improvement lowers the team ERA to 4.50. Just replacing Eaton, Hill, Berken, etc... (and the mop up relievers that follow them) with Matusz and Tillman should get us close.

So how does a lousy team get better quickly, simple - allow 100 fewer runs.

I see I proved that you are at the games....my fb picture of you, if you forgot.

But, I just got done watching Brian's blog, will miss it over the winter, but he said how they are going to be possibly looking for a first basemen as well this offseason. What is your take on keeping Michael Aubrey? I mean he did come up here when he traded Aubrey Huff, and he stepped up to the challenge well.

Ugh, my study break is over...
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Thanks for the photo, Becky. I don't think Aubrey should just be handed the job, but he made a nice impression and deserves a look. I'd say he's thrust himself ahead of the rest of the "inventory." - Roch

Do you remember when I cited the stats in spring training of how many games were being lost by one run? Yes, only spring training. And yes, only showing the young guys how easy it is to take losing--by one run--for granted.

Simply put, for a team that has been losing for a while, it's not a bad idea to get in the groove of winning spring training games. Believe it or not, Oriole fans like to see wins--even in spring training.

Roch-

I saw in an Chicago article today that in all likelyhood, the Cubs will not offer arbitration to Rich Harden.
There you go. A top tier starter. 28 years old, and wouldn't cost a pick.

Macphail should jump on that as soon as he can.
What say you?
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He'll probably draw some consideration, but he's had health issues. It's risky. - Roch

Roch:
Yes, 2000 does not count in this decade. Decades END in the zero year. Since the original method of counting years was ordinal, the first decade began in the year 1 and ended with the year 10. That why all that hoopla in 1999 about beginning the new millennium after 12/31/99 was bogus. The new millennium began 1/1/01. There was an issue on how computer systems would react when we went from 1999 to 2000, but we weren't changing from the end of one millennium to the beginning of the next (you could refer to any period of 1000 years as a 'millennium', but starting with the year 1, decades, centuries and millennia end with zeros).

Alan in VA said:
Who are the other 5? Mike Mussina, Rodrigo Lopez, and Erik Bedard come to mind. A quick internet search reveals Buddy Groom was over .500 as an Oriole. Who am I missing?
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You got me. I only know the current guys. - Roch

~~~

Roch, I think I found the last one: Alan Mills. I didn't realize he was still around in the 2000s.

The list:
Mike Mussina (147-81)
Rodrigo Lopez (60-58)
Erik Bedard (40-34)
Alan Mills (32-21)
Buddy Groom (15-13)
Brad Bergesen (7-5)
Brian Bass (6-3)
Mark Hendrickson (6-5)
Brian Matusz (5-2)

Roch-
I never thought I would ever say this but....
do you think it might be a good move to pick up Manny as a full time DH?

It would make since to sign him for 1 year. PLug him into the clean up spot, and wait for the kids to get better in the minors and see if someone else can step up later on.
Plus, with the FA class so bad, it would buy us a year until the 2011 FA's.

You can't argue that Manny can't carry a whole team for months at a time.
Plus, it would put the national spotlight on Charm City for a season, and help attract other FA in the future.
It'll cost 20 million, but would be worth it in the long run I think. He is a monster.
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Manny wouldn't want to play here, and I don't think the Orioles would want the drama. - Roch

Roch – can your PR guys figure out how many Orioles where quoted saying “Oops, I did it again” while running the base paths? No matter how you look at it, that has to reflect on the manager and coaching.

Schoolman,
Take a second look at my post about the over .500 pitchers. I included the others just for informational value and indicated that those pitchers were not part of the answer. There were 15 pitchers over .500 with a minimum of five wins. Their records are highlighted the first time a pitcher reached this standard.

Schoolman,
Someone slipped a change of pace past you. My research revealed the following:
ORIOLES PITCHERS OVER .500 THIS DECADE
2000: JOSE MERCEDES 14-7 / BUDDY GROOM 6-3
2001: 0
2002: R.LOPEZ 15-9/ TRAVIS DRISKIL 8-8 / WILLIS ROBERTS 5-4
2003: JASON JOHNSON 10-10 / S.PONSON 14-6
2004: R.LOPEZ 14-9 / D.CABRERA 12-8 / J.PARRISH 6-3
2005: R.LOPEZ 15-12 / B.CHEN 13-10 / TODD WILLIAMS 5-5
2006: E.BEDARD 15-11 / A. LOEWEN 6-6 / KURT BIRKINS 5-2
2007: E.BEDARD 13-5 / J.GUTHRIE 7-5
2008: 0
2009: B.BERGESEN 7-5 / M.HENDRICKSON 6-5 / B.BASS 5-3 / B.MATUSZ 5-2

TOTALS: 15 pitchers over .500 with a minimum of five wins.

I hate it when I am unclear in my questions. I was asking whether it was only the record for the decade that counted, or their entire Oriole career, as long as they pitched from 2000-2009. Mussina had a losing record with the Orioles in 2000, did not pitch for them afterwards, but had a winning record overall while pitching for the Orioles and pitched for them in the time window in question. Alan Mills had a 32-21 record with the O's as Alan in VA said, but was only 3-1 since the beginning of 2000. But since you did not do the research it's not fair to ask you what the actual parameters are for the interesting statistic.

Willis Roberts had a 17-15 record with the Orioles from 2001-2003. That makes ten, counting the list Alan put together. So either we are missing one more if it is only including the record beginning 2000 and need to exclude Mussina and Mills, or the Orioles PR staff missed one. And since Alan dug up the rest of the list, I'm not going to do any more looking. I found Groom, Roberts, and Lopez before I ran out of time last night, was curious about the rest of the list. Thanks for your research, Alan (and the others who came up with some of the names).

Does anyone else look at jackdunn'sbaby post and chuckle when they see that D. Cab and Bruce Chen actually had winning records with the Orioles once...

Or cringe to see that Buddy Groom, Jose Mercedes, Willis Roberts, D.Cab, Bruce Chen, Parrish, Sir Sidney, and Kurt Birkins make up over 1/2 the number of pitchers with winning records...Yikes!

At least Lopez and Bedard have some extended success.

That is just ugly...

Brummie_Oriole said:

No matter how you spin the stats and numbers, this team REGRESSED in the win/loss column by FIVE games and LOST 98 games, the worst performance since '88.

We can sit around and say " if only" in all these one run games. Thats what ANDREW and this front office want you to do. Keep thinking that success is right over the next mountain. "If only" we performed better in all those close games. "If only" we held a lead a bit longer. They want you to think that with one last great shove or leap, we'll get over the success mountain and suddenly be .500 or better.

Keep on trucking guys.

Jack, me and few other realists on here will simply say "If only" Ole Pete spent some of that extra $27m in revenue Dandy Andy brought in over the past two years. "If only" Andrew signed some winners rather than retreads.
October 7, 2009 6:19 PM

_______________________________

What do you mean "Jack, me and a few others..."
We all know you're one and the same person *L* Surely there can't be more than one who is as whiny, negative, solipsistic hateful and boorish as you. So you have to make up your imaginary little posters to make it look like there are many but in reality there is one.
You were also one who screamed the most about "playing the kids" Apparently after less than one year of playing the kids, you still whine. Man I pity your mother for having to put up with such a little cry baby.
Amazing how Andy MacPhail was able to build a winner in Minnesota. Yet since he hasn't built one in such a lengthy time as two years, he's a failure. *LMAO* Another interesting fact: All the money the Yankees spent on players since 2000 has won them how many world championships?