Baseball Prospectus chimes in
Baseball Prospectus has released its list of the top 11 Orioles prospects - a nice, round figure - and Brian Matusz is No. 1. He's also the only five-star selection.
Josh Bell, Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton are four-star choices. Matt Hobgood, Brandon Erbe, Brandon Snyder and Mychal Givens are three-star selections, and Brandon Waring and Cameron Coffey receive two stars.
Click here to view the entire list, which is compiled by Kevin Goldstein and includes four other prospects deemed worthy of mention. If you're a subscriber, you can read capsule reviews of each player, including their "perfect world projections."
It's hard to disagree with the choice of Matusz as No. 1, unless you're inclined to eliminate anyone who reached the majors. Orioles Hangout also chose him as the organization's top prospect. And he's still a rookie. I'm fine with it.
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Categories (click for archive)Roch Kubatko | Roch Kubatko Orioles |
What is the distinction between Tillman and Matusz. Tillman only had a couple of more starts, so why would Matusz make the list and Matusz not?
Hello from Austin as I wait for my connection to LA and then the 14 hour flight down under.
Hobby has pitched in the minors like 2 months and he is a top prospect? Not trying to rip the guy,just questioning the system.
Our beloved FO would be smart to try to add more depth to the minors, maybe by trading luke.
Regarding earlier post, why would the Phillies sign Mora? Why? Why? Figgins to the Phils makes the most sense. Not too much defensove dropoff from Feliz to Figgins and an incredible offensive upside. Plus it moves Rollins to 7 hole where he belongs. Figgins could score 150 runs in front of Utley and Howard.
These go to 11.
Hooray, I've been looking for this today! (And sleep, looking for that too. Maybe you'll post about that in your next entry to make it easier for me to find. That'd be great.)
I like Kevin Goldstein, probably one of my favorites and now it may just be because he uses the word "Ephemera".
Also much anticipating the Prospect Handbook. Curious how the two lists will match up.
(un)Interestingly, MY Prospect Handbook looks radically different.
Interesting that Kam is #14 as many who comment, myself included, see him as a possible closer candidate.
Also, BP does not see Matusz as an Ace/#1 type guy...since he is the only 5 star guy (by their rating), what does that say about the rest of our pitchers? #3/#4 types?
Also, if you're a subscriber, you can get a troubling opinion about Bergesen at the end of the article. Actually, I'll just post it, regarding why the O's #10 under-25 talent was Brandon Erbe, and Bergy didn't make the list:
"Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez both earned consideration, but would you trade either for Erbe? Bergesen's 3.43 ERA last year was pure smoke and mirrors, unsustainable with a strikeout rate under five per nine innings."
Roch,
You mean to tell me that we got our #2 and #12 prospects for an aging veteran LHRP who happened to be having career year? Really? I'll take it.
Also, I have a suggestion for a future blog. There have been quotes from MacPhail and Trembley over the past few weeks concerning our potential moves in free agency and the trade market. Unfortunately, on these boards, these quotes seem to have been twisted and confused with our own desires as sometimes irrational fans. Perhaps a post could outline what was actually said, what wasn't said, and who said it. Something that makes the off season promises and expectations clear.
I think this might avoid some of the whining that's been foreshadowed by a certain group because MacPhail promised us an ace and 40 HR clean up hitter.
All the more reason to be excited for Bell, Arrieta, and Britton. Same with Erbe, Snyder, and Givens. Did Brad Bergesen have a star rating?
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Bergesen probably has too many innings to qualify for that list. - Roch
That also makes a nice list of people I won't trade this offseason unless someone "overwhelms" us.
It's also the reason we shouldn't panic at the lackluster free agent list. We have some really good organizational options coming up over the next 2 years. Stay the course.
Tillman's service time eliminates him from prospect status for those wondering where his name is.
I prefer when you copy & paste
Roch,
I'm surprised Givens already got rated yet they didn't rate our 2nd and 3rd round picks from last year. Didn't Avery and Hoes have strong first year campaigns? Not sure, but thought they were solid Maybe i'm wrong.
Matusz and Tillman are both on the big league team but Matusz is included on the list of top prospects?? With that criteria why isn't Tillman?
Doesn't seem like a whole lot of credibility with this list.
3 stars for Hobgood?? grumble grumble... ANDREW... grumble... grr... grr...
Ahhh... remember those days?
Any thoughts on the JJ Hardy move? Did the Orioles have a chance for him at third? Did they try? Should they have? Just curious when I see any move made what other people think.
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Does he play third base? Looks like he's only been a shortstop in the majors. - Roch
Roch - Thanks as always for all your updates. It is sincerely appreciated and a favorite part of my day. Two ideas to throw by you.
1)The Braves may trade Javier Vasquez for a hitter. Do you think he is the type of ace the Orioles are looking for? Do you think we have anyone the Braves would accept in a trade for him? Luke Scott does not seem like enough.
2)Would you trade for Mike Lowell as a 3rd/DH option if the Red Sox get Adrian Gonzalez. He is a righty with power who still plays a good third base. He is a high character guy that would be a great mentor for Josh Bell when he comes up.
Can't wait for the hot stove to heat up. Go O's!!!!
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I think both guys would help the Orioles. But don't know what it would take to get them. - Roch
ADAM JONES GOLD GLOVE!!!!!
FIRST OUTFIELD GOLD GLOVE FOR US SINCE PAUL BLAIR IN 1975
Elias free agent rankings have been released: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/2009-elias-rankings-released.html
Melvin Mora is a Type A and Vlad Guerrero is a Type B. I think the system is broken :)
Also, Aubrey Huff is a "no compensation" free agent. So, kudos to Andy (I'm going to start calling him McPASS or McWIN or McSUCCEED) for dealing him and getting anything at all.
Steve D.
Thank you for that copy and paste, its is amazing what they say about Bergesen. It wasn't smoke and mirrors, he is a good pitcher, he isn't a thrower. These baseball people love the glammor of the strikeout, but a Mike Boddicker type comes along, and they knock him. They will eat their words when he post 15 wins next year.
Eventually, Tillman I believe will be the number 1 and Matusz will be the number 2 behind him. Bergesen may end up being better than them all though, but will be the number 3 behind them. With Guthrie still here, and Arrieta/Erbe/Britton being the replacements if someone goes down, as well as the trade bait for better hitters.
"Future's looking bright, I gotta wear shades"
Glad to see Britton get some recognition. Hope he came keep the ground balls coming when he gets to Baltimore. Kind of sad that Hoes & Avery were left off this list, those guys were 19 playing in the SAL (a pitchers league) one year out of high school but Givens, Hobgood & Joseph made the list as 3 star prospects.... makes you question the whole thing.
~~ Brummie_Oriole said:
Hello from Austin as I wait for my connection to LA and then the 14 hour flight down under.
Hobby has pitched in the minors like 2 months and he is a top prospect? Not trying to rip the guy,just questioning the system.
Our beloved FO would be smart to try to add more depth to the minors, maybe by trading luke.~~
Jack declared him a bust before he even signed and you called him a wasted pick equally early so where do you get off telling anyone else their opinion is premature? Your hubris is exceeded only by your ignorance. Down Under? At last you are complying with everyone here telling you to go to H*ll?
"Matusz and Tillman are both on the big league team but Matusz is included on the list of top prospects?? With that criteria why isn't Tillman?
Doesn't seem like a whole lot of credibility with this list."
Matusz has fewer than 50 IP. Tillman has more than 50 IP. Therefore, Matusz is a rookie in 2010, while Tillman is not. That's why Matusz will appear on top prospect lists while Tillman won't.
To the people complaining about Hobgood appearing on the list - go look at the list Baseball America compiled at the beginning of last season. Among the top 20 prospects:
#12 Pedro Alvarez - hadn't played a single inning of minor league baseball
#14 Buster Posey - career 37 AB in 10 games of minor league baseball
#20 Gordon Beckham - career 58 AB in 14 games of minor league baseball
That's just from glancing over the top 20 prospect list.
RichD, I'm inclined to side with the BP guys. Not writing Bergey off, but we tend to get a little myopic around here regarding the quality of O's players and prospects. "Maybe guys with low K rates don't normally fare well, but surely OUR guy knows how to pitch and is the exception."
If we expand our view a little bit and listen to what outside scouts have to say -- that's where BP gets their rankings -- we get a more realistic view.
Bottom line, if Bergesen is a serviceable 4th starter, he'll still be a bargain. But he's going to have to prove over more than half a season that he's better than that.
Bob F. -- Matusz still has rookie eligibility, Tillman does not. That's the criteria for being eligible for the list.
Brummie_Oriole said:
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Hobby has pitched in the minors like 2 months and he is a top prospect? Not trying to rip the guy,just questioning the system.
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November 9, 2009 2:14 PM
By that statement, you then must have disagreed with them labeling Matusz a top prospect last year as well, right?
Not trying to rip into ya, just questioning your "logic". :)
Good for those guys, now hurry up and trade a couple of threes and fours either Scott Aubry or Wiggington for Derrek Lee.
Three stars for Hobgood is very disappointing given that he was the number 5 pick in the first round of the draft. When we took Hobgood that high, people were left scratching their heads. It seems that the O's are the only team that rates Hobgood as a top prospect. I hope that we are right and the rest of the world is wrong. I hope that he is not the mound version of Billy Rowell or even Brandon Snyder, who seems solid but not a top prospect.
C'mon, AM, you just *gotta* rip Brummie when he says things that are so obviously contradictory. We all know his story, he's got one agenda and isn't going to let facts or educated opinions get in his way. The end justifies the means and all that rot. So, whenever he says something this blatant, you just *need* to rip him.
Oh, and Baseball Prospectus, as well as most other stat geek heavy sites, believes that strikeout rate (K/9IP) is more important than things like, oh, TALENT in evaluating potential success of pitchers.
I think BP is way off about Bergy. He has superb command of the strike zone (better than any other starter with the possible exception of Matusz) and that makes up for a lot of what he lacks in a power arm. Plenty of quality major league hurlers have had similar profile, yet pitched at a very high level for years and years (think of Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer). BP is out in the dark on this one.
Sure BP said Matusz didn't have ace stuff, but rating him ***** means he's close enough to one that he could develop that way. After all he does have what it calls a major league swing-and-miss pitch in his change-up. He's projected very high, but can he go a little higher. Obviously, no one (including BP) knows for sure--everything is just a projection for now.
I also raised my eye brows at Kam getting rated so low. Ridiculous. Unless, of course, BP is giving him an "incomplete" because of his tired arm. He's definitely deserves more than no stars as far as I'm concerned. I hope he's able to come back strong in 2010 because the Orioles could definitely use his power arm.