Joe Jordan sizes up some O's draft picks
Today in this space we begin a two-part series sizing up the Orioles' top ten draft picks from last June's First-Year Player Draft.
Who better to analyze the players than the man who drafted them, O's scouting director Joe Jordan. All the quotes in the article are from Jordan who took plenty of time for MASNsports.com to provide some interesting insight.
The O's selected nine players in the top ten rounds. Not all have even played for the Orioles yet, and of those who have, most played briefly with either the Gulf Coast O's, Bluefield and/or Aberdeen.
Today we start with an update on the players the Orioles drafted between rounds six and ten. Later this week, we'll get Jordan's comments on picks from rounds one through five.
Round 6 - Catcher Justin Dalles from the Univ. of South Carolina.
A right-handed hitter from Lake Worth, Florida taken with the 176th pick, he hit .324-15-47 in college in 2009.
He played for Aberdeen this summer and, in 48 games, hit .225-0-21 in 187 at bats. He'll turn 21 December 30th.
"I really like this guy. He's a big strong guy. I saw him hit the ball to the moon in the spring off Mike Minor of Vanderbilt. He's a very good pick in the sixth round.
"He's got some things to improve on, mostly get the heck out of his own way. He's very hard on himself, he wants to do well. He has to understand there are 140 games a year in the minors, you can't wear this stuff every night, you have to just go play.
"Talent-wise and ability-wise, we got value in the sixth round. He's going to play for a while with some bat. Like many of these guys, the bat will define him. If he hits enough, he has a chance to be an everyday guy.
How does he rank with his defensive skills? "He's got a chance to be at least an average catcher with an average or slightly above average arm. He's athletic enough. (Minor league catching instructor) Don Werner will have fun with this guy. He's not the best defensive catcher we took, as of right now, but he's got a lot of up side there. This is a guy Don can really help."
By the way, Jordan said the best defensive catcher he signed was Brian Ward, a catcher signed before the draft out of Lewis & Clark who played at Aberdeen this year. Ward signed with a big league club last year but that contract got voided and he didn't have to go back in the draft and could sign with any club.
Round 7 - LHP Aaron Wirsch from El Toro HS in Lake Forest, California.
The 206th pick overall pitched this summer for the Gulf Coast League O's, joining the club in mid July. He went 1-0, 2.16 in seven games. In 16 2/3 innings, he gave up 12 hits with 10 walks and 18 strikeouts. Lefty batters went 1 for 12 vs. Wirsch. This past Sunday was his 19th birthday.
"I love this guy. A 6'5" lefty out of high school. He doesn't have a big fastball right now, he pitches 86 to 88 and touched 89 in the Gulf Coast League. There's more fastball coming. But he's got a now breaking ball and a now changeup.
"I really like his pitch-ability. There is upside here. He's one to watch. He's mature, a Southern California kid that I'm shocked that we got where we did.
"Right now he can show you every bit of a solid Major League curveball, even a plus one at times. The same thing with the changeup. His fastball plays above the velocity because of the other two pitches. Similar to Brian Matusz. He was signed to go to the University of San Diego. But after talking with his mom and dad, this is what they all wanted. We knew that.
"We were hoping we could get him from six to ten and maybe have to overpay a bit. That's what we did. I'd take this every year in the seventh round.
"Dave Schmidt, our pitching coordinater, really liked this kid right away. He could see the value here. That's great. This guy's a little different, he's got some savvy about him. I wish we could sign five every year just like him."
Jordan says Wirsch's changeup is better than the one Brian Matusz had coming out of high school.
Round 8 - OF Devin Harris from East Carolina Univ.
This was the only top ten round pick the Orioles did not sign. He was drafted as a sophomore eligible player.
"He gave us a number up front that I honestly though we could get done for a little less than that. He never moved. I felt like we were over fair for the round. When push came to shove, I wouldn't budge and he wouldn't and he went back to school. We just didn't get it done, my decision."
Round 9 - RHP Ryan Berry of Rice University.
Berry, the 266th pick, was among the best pitchers in college baseball until he missed five weeks of the season with a strained muscle near his pitching shoulder. The O's gave him a signing bonus of over $400,000 that was equal to what their third-round pick got.
The 21-year-old Berry did not pitch at all for the O's this summer. At Rice in the 2009 season, he went 7-2, 2.42 in 81 2/3 innings and gave up 56 hits with 19 walks, 68 strikeouts and a .195 average against.
"I saw him pitch in early March. It was the best pitched game I saw all spring. A CG, about a two-hit shutout and for nine innings he threw the ball right where he was trying to. At that point, I had him in the late first round.
"He had three or four straight complete-game wins in a row and it was too much, too early and he got a bit tender.
"He was throwing 90 to 92 that day I saw him with life to the fastball, with command to both sides of the plate. He had a plus breaking ball and changeup. It was a complete over match.
"I saw him later, his stuff was a tick down. It wasn't quite as sharp, but still good. I had concerns, as others did in the industry, with the history of Rice pitchers and staying healthy.
"I had a very good area scout in south Texas, Rich Morales. He really got to know Berry and he told me on draft day we could get him for third-round money. I thought he was full of it.
"I wanted to take him in the 6th round, but we kept running into guys we liked. So we took him in the 9th and the kid was true to his word.
"Our doctors checked out the medical notes and their feeling was he needed rest more than anything. He logged a lot of innings and never really had a lot of rest. He had a complete physical and checked out good.
"He did throw some in instructional league before going back to school in September. Our guys were like 'you got to be kidding me,' I mean it was good.
"In my opinion, he's the first guy to the big leagues out of this draft. If he is healthy, which we believe he is 100 percent, he could start next year at Frederick and be at Double-A before next summer is over. That's just what I think of him.
"He's a little different, a little eccentric. He's over the top smart. But he's a pitcher that knows what he is doing. There's a little (Mark the bird) Fydrich in this guy. He's got his own beat, but when you see him out there he's surgeon-like when he's right."
Round 10 - RHP Jake Cowan from San Jacinto Junior College.
The 296th pick overall makes Houston, Texas home. The 21-year-old Cowan pitched for Aberdeen this summer, joining the Birds in mid July.
He went 1-2, 2.25 in eight games, four starts. In 24 innings, he allowed 15 hits with 11 walks, 27 strikeouts and a .179 average against. He pitched 16 1/3 scoreless innings over his last four Aberdeen games.
"Jake did great this summer, our guys really like him. He attacks the zone with good sink and a good slider. He had some minor tendonitis at one point during his college year.
"I sent John Gillette, one of our scouts to the Junior College World Series to watch this guy. We liked him but we didn't have enough looks at him.
"John said 'Joe this a third-round guy for me.' That's the value he put on him. He was an over-slot sign. He was signed to go to the University of Texas but it was just a good job by our area scout, who really got to know the kid.
"We signed him pretty quickly, we didn't want the University of Texas to get their hooks into this guy.
"He throws about 92, 93 with sink. The slider is a legitimate pitch and he's got a changeup, his third pitch right now. He knows what he's doing out there. Scott McGregor really liked him.
"He's not a real physical guy, so he's going to have to work hard and build some durability because he has the stuff to be a starter. He's just needs more physical maturity."
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Categories (click for archive)Orioles News | Steve Melewski |
Awesome stuff as usual, Steve.
I was very excited about the Berry pick, surprised he lasted as long as he did. (I'm sure JJ was, as well.)
Awesome post Steve, I look forward to the next one.
From what Joe says, it sounds like we have alot to look forward too from this draft, especially Ryan Berry, I like eccentric type people, and the O's could use a little more personality......oh yeh......sounds like he can pitch a little too.
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How about that, a comparison to Mark the Bird Fydrich. Going back a ways.
Steve
I remember hearing a little about Ryan Berry when we drafted him. That he was really good, but fell because he got hurt. Now, reading Joe Jordan's comments about him, I'm really excited to see him pitch next year. I hope Jordan's prediction about him is correct and he flies through the system. I like his comment that he is a little eccentric. It will be good to have someone different in the system, someone who is not another cookie cutter pitcher.
ryan berry sounds like he is going to be a good one...awesome insight steve
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Thanks, Chuckie. - Steve
Steve,
Very insightful article.I enjoyed hearing about these guys and will look forward to Part 2. Thanks for a job well done.
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Thanks, Jim. And to Joe for some awesome comments and insight on these guys.
Steve
Interesting article Steve, but I always take a teams' scouts sizing up their own picks with a grain of salt. If fans and sportswriters got a dollar for every scout or GM who says "I really like this kid"; "we got great value at this round" or "we didn't think he would last this long", we'd all have enough money to retire. Of course they are going to praise their picks. Have you ever heard a scout or a GM say "you know, Steve, we really think this guy is no more than Double A talent, but we figured so what?" I take far more credence in hearing a scout's take on other team's picks than their own picks.
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Sure, you don't expect Joe to criticize his own picks, but at the same time you write an article like this for the fans who want some extra info and insight on these players that are all new to the O's system.
How else would we know that Justin Dalles is too hard on himself, that Aaron Wirsch has a better changeup as a high school kid than Matusz did or Ryan Berry compared to Mark the Bird Fydrich.
Joe, more than anyone, knows the long odds for these guys to get to the Majors. But here he just gave us more knowledge and some amazing insights on new players to the farm system. Some that will never make it and some that we will be hearing about for years probably. That's all this was about.
Steve
Stirring the pot on the Hot Stove!!! I am getting excited again. Missing baseball alot now.
Good stuff Steve!
Do you know what Givens (2nd round pick) will translate to on the MLB level? Does he still want to play short? Did he get any PT in the minors this year?
Thanks!
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He's a SS. More about him in the next article. Steve
Great stuff Steve, thanks. Still, tough to tell the substance from the fluff sometimes. I wouldn't expect Jordan to say, "Yeah, this kid was a mistake, really wish I could get that check back."
I really liked the pick of Ryan Berry as soon as I saw it in June. The kid had one electric arm in 2007, but seemed to have "dead arm" issues in late 2008 and 2009. I would like to see him get the chance to be a starter with three plus pitches, but he has a "bulldog" mentality on the mound. This approach could serve useful for late inning work. He did impressive work out of the pen with Rice at times.
If you get the chance with Jordan, could you ask about Robert Bundy. I thought he was the best pick outside of Brian in 2008. I heard he came in soft and overweight, but at one time most scouts thought he was a top ten pick before the knee injury. Do they still have high hopes for him?
Steve,
Great stuff, keep it up!
Sounds like we may have a couple of steals in Berry & Wirsch.
Baldy
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Thanks for sayin. Steve
Good stuff Steve... thanks for all the informative work you do. As you know, I covered the Ironbirds last year and got to see a couple of these kids, and though Dalles was unimpressive, he seemed to be pressing. One can hope that he gets it together in 2010. Cowan was very good and Wirsch and Berry may be steals. Time will tell, as always.
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Thanks, Greg. You're right. Just like no one can slam Hobgood or Dalles for shaky stats, we can't or shouldn't over hype Wirsch or Cowan for good stats in limited time. These guys are just starting out. Still, it's nice to hear Joe so high on this draft class. - Steve
O's fan since 1954. Great to hear some of the comments on prospects. Can't wait for spring training.
Great info Steve! thanks for pulling it together for us!
Two questions:
- it seems like some of these guys have injury questions. Is that part of the reason the O's were able to get them in later rounds?
- any concern giving later round guys early draft money? what's to stop next year's 9th rounder from saying he wants 3rd round moolah?
thanks!
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Thanks, JZ.
First question.....I'm sure that Berry dropped due to the injury and the history of injury to Rice pitchers. That happens sometimes with pitchers. So yes teams get players in later rounds due to injury concerns. Some players drop in the draft also because clubs don't think they can sign a player.
Second question.....Many clubs sign players to "over slot contracts" - that is a contract worth more than the draft round calls for. Many teams do this but only for certain players. The O's gave big bonuses also to 11th round catcher Michael Ohlman and 22nd round pitcher Cameron Coffey. Coffey dropped in the draft because he had Tommy John surgery and also seemed set to go to Duke. the O's ponied up nearly a million for him and he signed.
A player can ask for any amount he wants. The club will put the value on him and sign him or not. For instance, the O's would not meet the price for their 8th rnd pick this year. Hope that helps some. - Steve
Steve: I really enjoy reading about our draft choices and our minor league players. Keep up the good work. Many top Major League players were drafted in Rounds 6-10.
Steve, I appreciate the draft update. Good to hear how Jordan evaluates the talent. Three pitchers here with potential upside, along with Hobgood, bodes well for the future. A call to arms!
Great article Steve! Do you know what the odds are of a player reaching the majors by the round they were drafted? Do you know the odds of players drafted out of high school reaching the majors?
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No, Dave, I don't know the odds of players going from each round.
Tony DeMacio, former O's scouting director, told me, that if 2-3 players make the Majors and become key players from a draft, that draft would be considered a good one.
I'm also told studies show the odds of a high school and college drafted player making it are very similar. It would just take the high school player longer, of course.
Steve
Great post,Steve. These reports restir my interest in the O's. Like others,I'm particularly intrigued by the Berry pick. Kid must be a character,and a genuine value pick. Look forward to the next post.
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Thanks.....Steve
Great post, keep the fabulous info coming
Great information Steve. I have been an O'S fan since 1960 and I bleed orange. I live and die with the O'S, win or loose. I am new on MASN.COM and new at reading your blogs. You have great information and enjoyable reading. It really helps keep the excitement of O'S baseball in me during the off season. Love hearing about our young talent and following them in the wintwe leagues. I see nothing but great baseball ahead. I love what AM is doing to our organization and am excited about all our young HOME GROWN talent. To me that's what baseball is all about. I am not a fan os free agency. Like I always say, "YOU GOTTA BELIEVE!" GO O'S
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Thanks, Ray, glad you found our site. - Steve
Steve-
I wish I could remember where it was that I read it, but it was linkede to the MLB draft tracker, anyway, there was this article from some scouts, and the coaches of Wirsch's HS team. Anyway, it talked about how this kid is destined to be a viable, maybe even front end starter in the MLB.
I think I pointed this out to you back when he made his first start, but, that curveball apparently is one of the best in the minor leagues.
Who was that kid they drafted in the 21 or 22 that they gave 1 milllion too? What is his story? Could you ask Jordan what they love about him so much that they set the record, and then why did he fall that far in the draft is he is so well liked.
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That was HS pitcher Cameron Coffey, who had Tommy John surgery this past season. The O's gave him nearly a million dollar bonus.
Here is the story I wrote the night Coffey signed in August.
http://masnsports.com/2009/08/joe-jordan-comments-on-the-sig.html
Steve
In response to Dave's question about the odds of a player making the majors per draft round, Baseball America had an article on this maybe about 5 years ago. The odds, roughly were:
1st round- 75%
2nd round- 50%
3rd round- 33%.
They had stats on other rounds but I can't remember them.