No runs, no hits...one Erik?
ESPN's Keith Law posted his top 50 free agents, which you can read by clicking here (you need to be an insider).
The top three shouldn't surprise you: Matt Holiday, Jason Bay and John Lackey.
Law ranks third baseman Adrian Beltre at No. 27, with the following comment: The last time Beltre entered his walk year, he had a career season, with 48 home runs and a .388 OBP in 2004, levels he had never seen before and wouldn't see during the course of his five-year contract with Seattle. This time around, Beltre was hurt and mostly terrible at the plate, sort of a fitting capo to a contract that overvalued Beltre and that he couldn't justify even with his plus defense. He remains superb in the field, worth at least a win over an average third baseman, with great range and an above-average arm. His swing has become long and over the last two years he's been vulnerable to average fastballs in addition to his old habit of chasing breaking balls moving down or away from him. The surgery he had in June -- the second to remove bone spurs from his right shoulder -- was apparently a success, and that injury probably cost him a lot of bat speed. Getting healthy and getting out of Safeco Field, which kills right-handed power, should restore Beltre to a respectable level of offense. And that, coupled with his glove, will give his new team three or four more wins. Beltre will also be more reasonably compensated this time around.
Law slots pitcher Erik Bedard at No. 28, with the following:
Bedard had a great season for Seattle, striking out 162 batters in 164 innings with a 3.24 ERA; of course, it took him two calendar years to do it. His two seasons with the Mariners ended in surgery, and an operation to fix the torn labrum he suffered this year will probably keep him out past Opening Day 2010, although he should be able to pitch later in the year. Before the injury, Bedard was mostly between 89-93 mph with an above-average curveball, but he almost always went fastball with two strikes, so he likely lacked confidence in the curve or wasn't comfortable throwing it. If Bedard's recovery from surgery appears to be going well, he'll probably have a number of offers from teams looking for a buy-low opportunity to get a former front-line starter who might want to make 20 starts in a bid to land a big free-agent contract for 2011.
Law's projection for Bedard's return matches the e-mail I received last night from a Mariners beat writer, who said it would be "a long shot" if the former Oriole is ready to pitch on Opening Day. It seems to be a foregone conclusion that he won't be available for the start of spring training.
I'm still inclined to predict that Bedard signs with the Orioles and eventually heads the rotation. As Law writes, it's a buy-low opportunity. And Bedard enjoyed his stay in Baltimore, though the losing wore him down like so many others.
John Lackey isn't coming here. The Orioles will sniff around and back off. I know it, you know it. He'll get the big bucks from a contender.
The Orioles' best chance to upgrade the rotation comes from the collection of pitchers whose medical records will get as much attention as their won-loss records. And Bedard appears to be the frontrunner at the moment.
Meanwhile, I landed a ticket to the Springsteen concert tonight. Maybe I'll see you there.
If he breaks out "Sherry Darling," I'll be singing louder than anyone, including The Boss, which will be extremely uncomfortable for the people sitting close to me. I'll apologize in advance.
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Categories (click for archive)Roch Kubatko | Roch Kubatko Orioles |
Keith Law's Cy Young voting was horrible. He left out Carpender. Just Dumb.
Roch-
I just saw the boss last Sunday in Milwaukee and it was increadible. He played the entire Born to Run album and the show last a bit over three hours. Have a great time.
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Thanks. Maybe I should grab a nap first (wow, I sound old). - Roch
Hey Roch! Glad to see you scored a ticket for the Boss. I'm counting down the hours. He's playing the entire "Born to Run" album tonight. Seeing as you are a "River" fan, he played that entire album a few weeks ago in NYC.
Anyhow, I was wondering about Bedard. What is his deal? He seemed to have a very bad attitude and never seemed to really enjoy being here. Was he happy to be traded from the O's? It seems like he's being forced to play the game. Strange bird. Would he be open to coming back to a team in progress?
Thanks and have a great time tonight! Hope he opens with Hungry Heart!
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You know his shows are long when he can do every song from a double album and still do his other stuff. Amazing. Bedard really liked it here, and he soon learned that the grass isn't always greener. He'd definitely come back. And he might find the team a little more appealing with all the young talent that's filtering in. - Roch
Thanks for the video, Roch.
"The greatest human being that ever lived!" The days of the height of the Bruce/Clarence interplay were the best.
I dont like the idea of bringing Bedard back. It has been well documented that he is a jerk and a spoiled brat. Furthermore he is injury prone & we already know he cant start the season. This has disaster written all over it. Stay away.
Just hope Bruce remembers what state his in tonite! "Hello Ohio!"
Depending on how much stock you take in certain stats, FanGraphs' player-value numbers have Beltre as being worth $67.4 million over his five years in Seattle. In other words, he was worth more than his contract, mostly through his defense but still with some offensive value.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B#value
If he will come for a one-year deal (and in the hopes of a big year to try for another big contract next year it might be a possibility) he should be someone we go after hard. He probably won't go for that, but I would try as hard as I could.
roch i find it hard to think bedard was a jerk ! what was your feel about him ? the heart issue always go back to the nats game he had went 7 inn ?
thanks as always
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His teammates seemed to like him, though not all of them approved of his treatment of the media. He's fine in small, informal groups. Once the lights come on, and the recorders are rolling, he becomes difficult. He picked up a real distrust of the media. That's no reason to avoid re-signing him. But he really turned off some team employees in Seattle. Made a very bad first (and second and third) impression. Like I said, I may not dig his act, but if he can provide wins and pile up those strikeouts and stay healthy, he's worth signing. He isn't a clubhouse cancer. And these young guys seem to be smart enough that they won't follow his lead entirely. - Roch
I'd like to see Erik back here. He's a great pitcher, but he is not an innings eater if that is in fact what we are looking for. Even when he was doing great here he wasn't much of an innings eater. Either way I'd welcome back that curve if healthy and potent.
Roch is there any chance a certain somebody named jack snuck back into the school under the name: kijsabakc?
Seems awfully close to jack is back and same rhetoric and language. I guess i don't really care one way or another, just wondering.
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If so, it'll be the last time you see him post here. I'll keep an eye on it. - Roch
Just hope Bruce remembers what state his in tonite! "Hello Ohio!"
Roch
that was nice of nestor to get you a ticket....
skindooley said:
Roch is there any chance a certain somebody named jack snuck back into the school under the name: kijsabakc?
Seems awfully close to jack is back and same rhetoric and language. I guess i don't really care one way or another, just wondering.
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If so, it'll be the last time you see him post here. I'll keep an eye on it. - Roch
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Did I miss something??? Mt laptop broke a few weeks ago and someone has been outed?? Is this true? What happened??? Anyone?
Why sign a SP that is returning from labrum surgery (Patton) & will probably be in ST mood until late June or even the all star break? How does that help the rotation? I suggest the buy low O's look elsewhere & let Bedard use someone else has his one yr rehab stop.
I want to be clear.... where have I heard that one.... Beltre here ONLY at a short deal & for a very reasonable price is my position. His post roid stats don't impress me, but the non roided Beltre is still an upgrade over Feliz....
I hope someone in the audience knows CPR if Bruce goes 3+ hours again tonight.
Roch,
You have made my day. Just the sheer fact that you think it is semi-probable Bedard would be back makes me breath a HUGE sight of relief. I saw him pitch at Camden two years ago against the Red Sox (same year they won it all) and he shut them down completely. Of course, the bullpen came in and allowed them to send it into extra innings which was then won thanks to a deep right knock from Makakis. Nevertheless, when he is on the mound in Camden you should buy a ticket and get to that seat, no matter who they are playing. His ability to make batters miss is down right amusing.
I agree with you that our young guys seem to have great character and will help curb some of Bedard's rougher edges if anything. When you are as good as Bedard is and play of two bottom of the barrel teams it has to be tough. Look at Randy Moss's character change from Oakland to New England. With the young guns and Bedard I think Bedard will be smiling and winning a lot.
Sitting in the nosebleeds tonight, section 301, last row, don't know if I can see the stage, don't care. I'm in. Bruuuuuuuuce.
Yes to Bedard. By 2011, when he's likely to be 100%, he'll be just another cog in the wheel of a formidable rotation. A good fit.
kijsabakc said:
Very well put! I dont buy the scenario where Ole Pete is not tampering with the running of this club. How come each year we have the same needs which come with the annual excuses why we cant go out and purchase a few high level free agents to suppliment our rookies. Why is the F O always crying the small market blues?
Either Dandy Andy is getting the directions not to spend or else the game has clearly passed him by
November 20, 2009 11:24 AM
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hahaha, pretty funny and good call skindooley! silly jackie. Enjoy the show Roch.
Roch,
I think Bedard returning would be a win/win. He needs to perform to extend his career and we need a quality low risk arm. If he is not ready by may the so be it.
Who do you like in the Bad Team bowl this sunday, Lions or Browns. Who will not lose?
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Scoreless tie through OT. - Roch
"Keith Law's Cy Young voting was horrible. He left out Carpender. Just Dumb."
Did you read his rationale for it? It actually makes pretty good sense. Essentially he dropped Carpenter a few spots because of his relatively low number of innings pitched. At the same time, he picked Vazquez 2nd because of his extremely high K/BB ratio (2nd in the NL behind Dan Haren), which led to an FIP that was also 2nd in the NL (this time behind Lincecum). In fact, I'm more surprised that nobody else found a spot on their ballot for him. If he had given up just a couple fewer home runs, his ERA could easily have been in the 2.50 range, and all of a sudden he's one of the top candidates. As it stands he had an excellent season.
I am very much pro-Bedard. If he isn't ready by spring training, he is very much the player we were hoping to get out of Rich Hill. We start with Tillman Matusz Guthrie Bergesen, plus one in the rotation and the one that cannot hang gets demoted when Erik is healthy. "Competition is a wonderful thing."
I said it once and I will say it again. I will take attitude if it equals wins. There are a lot of nice guy losers out there. I've been watching a lot of them for the last 15 years.
Well David B, Bedard is better than Rich Hill so we will be hoping to get a lot more out of Erik Bedard than we were from Rich Hill. Also, think of it like this. Hypothetically, Berken is the 5th starter until Bedard is healthy and he will put up some good numbers (I hope) and when/if Bedard gets injured (I hope he won't and keeps on putting up good numbers), he'll be replaced by Arrieta or some other prospect. It's a good situation to be in, I would say. Especially if Guthrie returns to his 07-08 form, and if Matusz, Tillman, and Bergesen stay solid, we could have some .500 baseball.
I have no ill will towards Seattle, but I just want this to happen because it means we stole AJ (already an All-Star gold glover and a future 30/30 guy), Tillman, Kam, and now Bell & Johnson for virtually nothing. We weren't finishing above 5th with or without Bedard and now we might have him back.
After 12 straight losing seasons it will be the biggest victory I can remember.
Is it true the loser of the Lions/Browns game has to leave the NFL & join the Canadian Football League?
Let's Bedard back - he will become healthy and then we trade him in late July to a club in need of an arm - which is most clubs! We could end up getting a total of 7 players for one guy (5 from 2008, 1 or 2 from 2010!)
Do you think we could pull off another Bedard trade or will teams hear BEDARD and ORIOLES and run the other away!
>>not a big Boss fan, but Born in the USA - great song! Although I like party in the USA too!
I don't know about Bedard, I like him when he is healthy, but that is way to infrequent. Roch, what is the prognosis on his shoulder, does everyone think he will get back to 100%, and if so when? Look how long its taken Patton, and he's a lot younger. I wouldn't think Bedard is back to 100% till at least 2011. Does anyone think of him maybe in the bullpen next year? Would he go for that? He might make a pretty good closer, just a thought. Sorry for all the questions.
It would be more than a little ironic if we did get Bedard back though. We go into Seattle with Jones in center, Bell at 3rd, Tillman and Bedard in the rotation, and Mikalio in the pen. There would be more than a few ticked off fans in the stands. Maybe the Marniers draft Steve Johnson in the rule 5 draft just for a little payback.
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All I know is what I wrote, that he's not expected to be ready for Opening Day. But eventually he's supposed to be 100 percent. The question is, when? And for how long? (OK, that's two questions). - Roch
Eric Bedard is a punk! Another hurt retread headed for the end of his career.
Bruce Springsteen is a punk!
I'm old enough to know a punk when I see one. Bruce, like the lady said "just shut up and sing." How's that "hope and change" working out for you?
Bedard would be a great addition, but he's not enough. The O's need Bedard, Harden, and Sheets to go with Tillman and Matusz in the rotation if they want to compete with the good teams. Guthrie and Bergesen can fight it out for Bedard's spot in the rotation until he is healthy. When Bedard arrives, the bullpen would be solid with Guthrie, Bergesen, Uehara, Johnson, Meredith, Mickolio, and a closer (hopefully, Wagner).
Roch, I'm an enormous Bruce fan, and have been fortunate enough to see him live over 30 times. His 3 hour shows are legendary. Please provide your feedback tomorrow. Depending on my mood, my all-time favorite songs are Thunder Road and Badlands. Shout it out during Sherry Darling and enjoy the other 2 hours and 55 minutes!
Roch,
Are you shilling for ESPN now? The article you've linked to can only be read by an ESPN "insider" whatever that is.
Baldy
As I recall, Bedard's "heart" was questioned many times by Jim Palmer before and after that game he left early after running around the bases. I recall hearing a comment about him going to the pitching coach or manager and telling them he wanted out of games before they wanted to take him out.
Do you remember any of this Roch?
As for "sticking it" to Seattle for signing the guy they traded us so many players for, the Orioles thought they made a coup the last time they did something like this with Sidney Ponson. Quick trivia, can anyone name (without researching it) the three pitchers we got in the trade for Ponson from the Giants? Most everybody can name at least one, possibly two.
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There were instances where Perlozzo would ask if he was tired and he'd say yes. Some people felt like Perlozzo shouldn't ask. He should just send him back out there. - Roch
skindooley said:
....
Roch is there any chance a certain somebody named jack snuck back into the school under the name: kijsabakc?
Seems awfully close to jack is back and same rhetoric and language. I guess i don't really care one way or another, just wondering.
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and since, because we've all grown accustomed to how Jack/Brummie (mis)spell things, "kijsabakc" reads easily as "jackisback". tell me THAT wasn't your first clue. how did y'all miss THAT?
I'll take Bedard AND Tejada back. Love the idea of trading away two stars for 10 players and then getting them back two years later at a lower price. Is Tejada looking for a multi-year deal, or will he listen to a one year offer?
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I'm sure he's looking for a multi-year deal. The market may force him to listen to the one-year offers. - Roch
I am absolutely never in favor of signing guys with the intent of flipping them at the trade deadline. If we sign Bedard, it should be because we want Bedard in our rotation for the length of his contract. I was dead set against signing him, but if Roch thinks they should look into it, then I'm ok with it. I was under the impression that he was just another hater, but if his teammates liked him and Professor Roch thinks he won't unduly influence the youngsters to be surly minimalists, then great. Sign him to a three year deal with a moderate base but big IP incentive clauses, as well as a fourth year option that automatically vests if he makes 30+ starts in the third year. Give him the chance to earn big-time money if he's healthy and successful (and willing to pitch into the 7th and 8th innings).
Roch, do you think that if we signed him a second time he might be different with the media, given that we have other "stars" who are more talkative and who are willing to take the media spotlight away from him? Perhaps the media will know what they are getting when they go to talk with him, and perhaps he'll be a bit more mature about things this time around?
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We can only hope, but I don't expect major changes. - Roch
Bring Back Bedard!!!!! The media may have not liked his interviews, but i certainly found them entertaining..... The only bad thing about the Seattle trade was that we didn't have him pitching for us anymore...if we get him back we can have our cake and eat it too... with a side order of Bell at third!
I'm all for bringing Bedard back... I remember getting excited whenever he pitched because you KNEW he was gonna get 11 or 12 strikeouts, and that was about the most exciting part of O's baseball that year! As for the attitutde, doesn't bother me a bit, I don't have to live with the guys, they are here to perform on the field, as long as they aren't distracting from the team with their behavior (i.e BAD behavior) I say bring him back!
Not to accuse anyone of anything, but I have to be suspicious of anyone who had a career year leading up to free agency and never came close to that year before or after. This is one of the downsides to not publishing "the list" . . .
Every player and agent in baseball knows the Orioles hope that Bell and Snyder are ready by the AS break. None of the top free agents will sign for a year as a placeholder. If you're lucky you get a guy like 38 year old Greg Zaun who accepts the role. DeRosa, Figgins, LaRoche, Beltre, etc.,are corner infielders with some pop- they will demand and command multi year deals where they can start.
You might get Fliz on a one year deal, but he is a clone of Mora, not an upgrade.
I'd consider Matsui as DH. I'd prefer a righthanded bat, but he hits lefty's pretty good. This means you could trade Scott- but he was the only guy we had with over 20 homers, so swapping him for Matsui in the lineup doesn't hurt you, but doesn't really close the power gap between us and NY and Boston.
skindooley said:
I'd like to see Erik back here. He's a great pitcher, but he is not an innings eater if that is in fact what we are looking for. Even when he was doing great here he wasn't much of an innings eater. Either way I'd welcome back that curve if healthy and potent.
Roch is there any chance a certain somebody named jack snuck back into the school under the name: kijsabakc?
Seems awfully close to jack is back and same rhetoric and language. I guess i don't really care one way or another, just wondering.
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kijsabakc = jack is back (although mis-spelled)
I think it would be great to get Eric back. I'm not sure that staying healthy is unlikely given his past. Didn't Burnett have the same stigma and he stayed healthy last year. He certainly kept us entertained when he pitched. Maybe he could teach Hill a thing or two when he is able to throw again. And the other young hurlers too. I would make a reasonable offer, hope Andy thinks the same.
Bring him back! We can't afford Lackey, but putting a true ace atop the rotation will make everyone so much better in their respective slots.
Guthrie is a good pitcher, but he'll never be able to consistently match up with Halladay, Sabathia or Beckett. Bedard, when he's healthy, can.
i think beddard at any level , starter , mid releiver or closer will , when 100% be in in our top 3 on team. i never wanted to see him go , dont just make a bid for beddard GET HIM!!! .