Not yet done with Dunn
My old friend Joe Strauss, who writes baseball for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, would like to see Nats' first baseman Adam Dunn in Cardinals' red in 2010.
He writes today: "It is feasible that the Washington Nationals make Adam Dunn available this winter before he enters the walk year of his deal. Dunn is owed $10 million next season, a relative bargain in comparison to a 6-8 year deal for Holliday or a 4-year splurge on Bay..."
Obviously, at this point it's no more than mere speculation, but I admit I've been somewhat surprised over the past 6 months by the number of baseball writers who believe the Nats have some kind of obligation to move Dunn.
The 2008 Nationals scored 641 runs. The 2009 Nats crossed the plate 710 times. Anyone you spoke with inside the game told you the impact Adam made on the lineup was obvious and palpable. Yet, at least one of the daily scribes who cover the team told me at year's end the Nats "had" to move Dunn. Why? Because his value would never be higher.
I'm all for making moves that improve the ballclub, but sending Dunn away for prospects at this juncture seems a little short-sighted. He turns 30 next week - still very much in his prime - and will likely put up similar numbers for another few years. He's clearly a great teammate, and seems to like it in Washington very much.
Looking at it from the Cardinals' perspective, though, what would they possibly be willing to surrender for Dunn? You can rule out the obvious names: Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright. They'd be very unliklely to part with Schumaker, Rasmus, Molina or Ryan. Ryan Ludwick? He might be available. Mitch Boggs? Todd Wellemeyer? Blake Hawksworth? Would any of these guys really make the Nats much better than their own pitching prospects?
The other side of Dunn is, of course, his defense. In St. Louis he'd have to play left field, since he wouldn't supplant Albert at first. I dunno, I can't see Tony LaRussa writing Adam's name on the lineup card with a "7" next to it with a smile on his face.
Dunn, once he played the position daily, became an adequate first baseman. The outfield, even as hard as he worked on improving his skills out there, was still an adventure at times. Moving Dunn now, with no big league ready first baseman readily apparent (barring signing a free agent or trading for one), would create a pretty big hole in the lineup.
I like Dunn. I like him as a player, as a person, and as a real positive in the clubhouse. I have no doubt he'd love to play for a winner. At the moment, however, he's far more of a plus in Washington than I think he'd be in Missouri.
 |
Categories (click for archive)Phil Wood |
Moving Dunn mid-season would make a lot of sense if Chris Marrero is ready. A lot also depends on the status of draft pick compensation for FAs in the new CBA and what Dunn would require for a extension. I'm sure Rizzo and staff will have some very interesting arguments about the best course of action, but in the end I think Dunn & Marrero's performance on the field will make the untimate decision much easier than it appears now.
I really don't think that anyone is going to give anything near the return Rizzo would want on a trade for one year at the most of Adam Dunn. (At this point, Willingham might fetch as much or more, simply because the team acquiring him now would be assured of having him for several years.) The Nats could get substantially more for Dunn if he were extended first, but Dunn does like it here and would likely want a partial if not total no-trade clause in any extension.
To me...this is a simple case of just wanting to ride the "What If" dream. I do not see the Nat's taking steps backward at this time. You really have to follow Phil's direction of what would it take to replace Dunn on the National's (In every aspect). At this time it isn't there...
Go Nationals!!! RR-Upstate South Carolina
I've been perplexed at the "Trade Dunn" talk. We just got the guy. Can't we just keep a valuable player for once? Why can't he be part of our future? He has actually delivered this year and his defense at 1B is WAY better than one would expect.
If Dunn were still playing LF, I might understand trade talks a little better. He wasn't just bad, he was infuriating. But I think he's great and would love to see him inked to a longer contract. === There's no shortage of fans who feel the same way, and I know the club is aware of that.
Phil,
This leads me to a question.
What role does sentiment and fan loyalty actually play in this type of decision for a major league team?
We've got a player here who seems to like the DC area. He's a great teammate and hits Hondo-like homers--lots of them. If he stays here, he'll be the first player to hit homers number 400, 500, and maybe 600 in DC. And we've got a brand-new fan base starved for players we can cheer for, who stay here for more than 15 minutes.
Is any of this considered when a team is deciding to trade or not trade a player like Adam Dunn?
KM ===== Those things figure into the equation, but particularly so if it's determined that the player's presence sells tickets. It's not just here, either. Dunn's friendship with Ryan Zimmerman may also be a factor in the long run.
I would like to see the extension done this winter, and avoid the is he going discussions around the trade deadline. I also would like to see Dunn make a commitment, like Ryan Howard did, to become a better first baseman. Howard went to Florida in January to begin his work on improving defensively. Does Dunn have the same level of commitment? ==== I believe so. I'd like to see the ballclub have him work with an ex-player who played first base with a high degree of proficiency. I'm not sure just hitting him 100's of ground balls will have much impact.
It would be a mistake to trade Dunn. Sign him to a 3 or 4 year contract to play first base. He's part of the backbone of a batting order that can lead to an improved record. Plus as you say Phil, he seems like a good guy to have on the club for all his positives.
I like what Dunn's brought to the team both on and off the field. I've also had the impression that he's serious about improving his defense. IMO he wasn't as bad at first as many expected, and it seems as though his height is a plus in reaching some of the, er, higher throws coming from third.
I just got my USA-Today for this week. While the Dunn question was still fresh on my mind, I read over the list of first basemen on this years FA list. All of these names would most likely be obtained for less then what we have invested in Adam. But...
Mike Kotsey
Aubrey Huff
Russell Branyan
Hank Blalock
Adam LaRoche
Jason Giambi
Doug Mientkiewicz
OK trade fans...see anyone you like???? Lets just move on to another Hot-Stove League rumor.
Go Nats!!! RR-Upstate South Carolina
Dunn turns 30 on Monday - Why would the team want to move a player who has a good eye at the plate, absolutely Kills mistake pitches, and actually likes it in DC? Offer him an extension & let the offense grow around him for another year or two; If/when players like Marrero & Norris prove they can play at the ML level, then the team can "afford" to move him for prospects.