Strasburg, new coaching hires, & Guerrero
Stephen Strasburg's recent knee injury certainly gave the Nationals pause, but if Dr. Lewis Yocum says it's not a big deal, that's good enough for me.
Still, I imagine a lot of Nats' fans held their collective breath for an instant when they heard about it.
Strasburg turned a lot of heads with his performance in the Arizona Fall League, and has planty of time before pitchers and catchers report to Viera in February to do some R & R. I understand he's scheduled to be married between now and then, which will likely cut down on some of that.
On a couple of other fronts, Jim Riggleman has completed his coaching staff for 2010 with the addition of Jim Lett as bullpen coach and Dan Radison as first base coach. Both men have histories with Riggleman, and Jim must feel a bit more secure knowing he had that kind of autonomy to bring in his own guys. Not every manager gets that, as you likely already know.
Also, national baseball writer Phil Rogers of the Tribune syndicate predicts in his Sunday column that the Nationals will sign free agent outfielder Vladimir Guerrero: "Washington has enough money to bring back the eight-time All-Star to his original franchise, making it more acceptable to trade Adam Dunn for some badly needed pitching."
Hmmm. Interesting theory. Guerrero is a likely future Hall of Famer, coming off a season where he appeared in only 100 games, due to a number of nagging injuries, including a strained pectoral muscle. Out of those games, he played only two in the field, DH'ing in the rest. Most scouts who've seen Guerrero the past couple of years don't believe he can be an effective defensive player anymore, despite his past reputation.
I have to ask why the Nats would want to sign an aging (35 in February) slugger who's far more suited to playing bat in the American League? He made $15 million last year, and would likely want that much or more to sign with anyone. He's not a first baseman, and trading Dunn would open a hole on the right side of the infield. Guerrero has never walked much, and even though his career OPS is somewhat higher than Dunn's, how much does he really have left?
As for trading Dunn, who's going to trade a top-of-the-rotation starter for him? I think you might get a handful of prospects, but the Nationals already have several high ceiling pitching prospects in their farm system. You can never have too many of those guys, I know, but if Dunn's to be traded, I think you've got to get something of immediate value, not simply potential.
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Categories (click for archive)Phil Wood |
Aside from Strasburg who are the high ceiling pitching prospects? Detwiler? Mock? Martis? Balester? Martin? Stammen? Their ceilings aren't that high. I hope and pray that they turn out to be amazing. Are you counting Zimmermann has a prospect? Most of the guys I named have ceilings of 5th starters, right? Or do a couple project as higher? ========== To most professional scouts, "high ceiling" means simply "major league." Nothing more tnan that. So, with that definition, yes, most, not all, of the names you mention are considered high ceiling. Most organizations will consider their higher draft picks high ceiling guys until they completely wash out of the system.
I think Adam Dunn is highly underrated. I agree, the Nats would need to get someone of immediate value to the rotation. And like you said... they'll probably never get immediate value in return for him. They'd have to settle for potential.
If this makes any sense... I don't think that any team in need of a power-bat would be in an equal position to give up one of their great pitchers.
It's difficult to even speculate examples of what kind of trade is possible. For example, locally speaking: Guthrie for Dunn? Seems like the Nats would never agree, right? So then what? Matusz for Dunn? The O's would never agree, right?
It's tough to find the middle ground, and I cautiously assume you can apply this situation to any team out there who would seek Dunn.
Anyway, still fun to think about it! Good discussion.
They should be talking about extending Dunn not trading him. You don't fix the pitching by ruining the offense. And I agree with you. -- there's no way they sign Guerrero.
I hope they don't trade Dunny and I hope they don't get Vladimir Guerrero, he'd be better off in the American league somewhere where he could DH. If anything I would hope the Lerners would extend Dunny's contract for 3-4 years.
If Bowden was still here this is something he would do.Sign someone like Guerrero.This would STINK if they traded Dunn.Guerrero,i think is all washed up.We need to keep Dunn around 3-4 more years.
Vlads original franchise was Montreal. This is Washington. Bringing him back to his original franchise would entail him moving to a city without a team. There is no sentiment from the fans here to bring back Vlad. I would miss ADunn more than I need Vlad back.
Rich, I think you need to look a little further into the Nats system. YOu have Aaron Thompson (22), Jeff Mandel (24), Brad Meyers (24), Tom Milone (22), Marcos Frias (21), A.J. Morris (23), Mitchell Clegg (23) and Jack McGeary (20). Put that together with Strasburg and Zimmermann who both project to be at least number 3 or higher starts, and Lannan who is still only 25 and Martis, Detwiller and Stammen who project as #4 or 5 guys and I would consider that a solid amount of young starting pitching with upside.
We got Dunn to fill a middle-of-the-order hole that we had. We're trying to BUILD a team here, not keep tearing it down. Trading Dunn for a hot pitcher (okay, warm) will only halfway fill one of several holes we have in pitching, and still leave the hole at 1B or cleanup. Dunn is WAY better at 1B than he was in LF. He just p***ed me off out there, but I hardly noticed him at 1B, which is what you want.
Wasn't Vladdy one of the guys practically given away when we were the Expos? If so, it might get some nostalgia points, but yea, 35? No thanks. ====== Actually, Guerrero left Montreal as a free agent.
Vlad back to the Nationals - What was Rogers on when he wrote that? He's 35, he can't stay healthy enough to play in the field anymore... That's just wrong on so many levels, I can't even begin to comprehend where that came from. ====== My thoughts exactly.
Peyton,
You are right, I did not mention all of the Nats prospects, and instead I mentioned the ones that we have seen this season. However, my concern is that none of the pitchers you mentioned rated higher than a C+ according to Sickels' rating system.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/11/18/1164112/washington-nationals-top-20
I'm not saying that Sickels knows all or that I have much of a clue, I'm just concerned about how much depth we really have. I'm not convinced we have that much. But maybe I'm too glass half empty. I would love to be proven wrong.