The 40-man march
I'm heading to M&T Bank Stadium today to watch the Ravens justify being a 3 ½-point favorite over the undefeated Broncos. I say they win on a late field goal, allowing fans to let go of Matt Stover for at least one week, but they don't cover the spread.
It better be a good game if I'm sitting in the rain. I'll take the cold, but I have my limits.
Take Arizona -10 over Carolina. I smell a blowout.
If I smell burgers or brats on a grill, I'm crashing your tailgate.
Following the Orioles' roster activity last week - it felt like a flurry for this time of the year - the 40-man needs to be updated.
By my count, and I'm the first to admit that math isn't my strong suit, they currently stand at 32. They'll need to remove Brad Bergesen, Koji Uehara and Adam Jones from the 60-day disabled list before the Rule 5 draft, which takes us up to 35, but Danys Baez and Mark Hendrickson are pending free agents, which takes us back down to 33.
Does that sound right?
Hendrickson could return, since he evolved into a pretty effective lefty reliever and he wants to stay, but Baez will have to find a new home.
Anyway, here's the 40-man without the 60-day DL crew:
Pitchers:
Matt Albers
Danys Baez
Brian Bass
Jason Berken
Alberto Castillo
Jeremy Guthrie
Mark Hendrickson
David Hernandez
Jim Johnson
Radhames Liz
Brian Matusz
Cla Meredith
Kam Mickolio
Troy Patton
Wilfrido Perez
Chris Ray
Dennis Sarfate
Chorye Spoone
Chris Tillman
Chris Waters
Catcher:
Matt Wieters
Infielders:
Robert Andino
Michael Aubrey
Cesar Izturis
Brian Roberts
Justin Turner
Ty Wigginton
Outfielders:
Nick Markakis
Lou Montanez
Felix Pie
Nolan Reimold
Luke Scott
The Orioles must add minor league pitchers Brandon Erbe and Steve Johnson, third baseman Josh Bell and first basemen Brandon Snyder and Rhyne Hughes before the Rule 5 draft. Others who would need to be protected include pitchers Josh Perrault and Chad Thall, second baseman Ryan Adams and shortstops Blake Davis and Pedro Florimon.
Perhaps a few more guys are outrighted or lost on waivers this week. I still see some vulnerable pitchers in the group.
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Categories (click for archive)Roch Kubatko | Roch Kubatko Orioles |
Adam Jones???
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He's on the 60-day DL, so he's not on the roster at the moment. As I wrote, he'll have to be added later, along with Bergesen and Uehara. - Roch
Roch,
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 60-day dl crew will all have to be activated. That's Bergesen, Uehara & Jones, bringing the 32 listed to 35. There's room for the first five guys you mention to be added. Now the Os have to decide which of the "others" group need protecting and open the space to do so. My guess would be that Bass, Castillo & Waters are likely candidates to be moved. It also seems to be a good idea to either resign or not Baez & Hendrickson, if they aren't resigned, their spot on the roster can be opened. Even then, for every FA {or maybe even a Rule 5 pick} they sign, they would have to open a space on the 40-man roster. However, if they make a trade {probably for a bat}, the roster problems go away. A trade may even open 1 or 2 more holes that could be used to sign FAs.
Baldy
PS Am I wrong, isn't Bass eligible to a free agent this winter?
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I wrote that the 60-day DL guys will have to be added later. - Roch
Ravens by at least 10.
Schoolman,
The day the following was initially posted must have been a school holiday - maybe a blizzard, I don't remember. Here is another chance to comment:
For what it's worth, I suggest that, we consider separating our losing streak into two separate runs:
March 31, 1998 to June 19, 2007, The Era of Confused and Diffused Leadership and June 20, 2007,* The Day the Meddling Died, to the present.
By doing so, it is much easier to accept, at face value -- that "baseball decisions" are now in the hands of the professionals -- than it is to continuously allow our bowels to get in an uproar.
And, in fairness to fans and their hopes, the Competitive Clock should begin to run on Andy MacPhail.
Here's another unsolicited add-on suggestion to lower the temperature on this blog: Let's adopt a timeline with two Dates of Truth (DOTs). Our timeline should begin on the day after the final game of the World Series – about November 6th.
PROPOSED TIMELINE TO JUDGE O’s ARRIVAL AT COMPETIVENESS: 11.6.2009 ------------------------------ 7.16.2010 ------------------------------ OD 2011
The first “Date of Truth” (DOT) should be the date by which the Warehouse can be fairly judged on how well the 2010 Orioles have been constructed to play solid, "interesting" baseball with a .500 record within reach until September 15th (arbitrary cut off). I propose the first game after the All-Star Game break -- July 16th -- which will allow time for call ups to fortify the roster.
My choice for the second, and final, DOT on our timeline is the date -- Opening Day 2011 -- when the most skeptical fans will be forced to admit that the Orioles Are Back!; or, fans like me – suffering with dehydration, our precious bodily fluids running dangerously low because we refuse to drink from the tank of Kool-Aid, which is laced with mind-control drugs -- go over to the dark side.
*Date when Andrew MacPhail joined the Orioles, receiving -- and only because he received -- a "Non-Interference Pledge" by Peter Angelos.
That tailgaitin thing sounds awesome. I'm a new fan of Man vs Food after you mentioned it and I enjoy the vids on youtube. I was at Steak and Main in North East years ago. A little pricey for me at the time, but when you want to treat yourself to a good meal in Cecil County, that's not a bad place to go.
As for my favorite food in Cecil County, I recommend Durham's Best Barbecue at the intersection of Elkton/Newark Rd and Fletchwood Rd. I've seen the line of 20+ out the door just waiting for lunch. They serve the food quick though and the beef brisket sandwich's are so huge and tasty, that you can take some home for dinner later. It's take out, but they have tables outside.
I can see Andino being outrighted in favor of Davis, and I can see several pitchers who could be outrighted (Waters, Bass, Liz, Spoone depending on his injury status). The Orioles will need a few spots for potential Rule 5 bullpen acquisitions and potential free agent signings. I wonder if there is any way the O's can work out a deal with Hendrickson that doesn't become official until after the Rule 5 draft.
Id' have the same "wink-wink" deal with Hendrickson, if they really want to keep him, that they have with Moeller to free up a spot. Both get signed after the draft. And if both go elsewhere, it is not an earth-shattering loss.
Why is Hughes mentioned as someone to protect? He's viewed that highly by the O's? If so, why?
Others that could go besides Baez and Hendrickson are Waters, Bass and Andino since Truner can replace him. Sarfate, Albers and Castillo should be on the bubble. If there is a prospect that needs protecting that is better than any of them, then they go, in any order. Hard to answer since prospects are a crap shoot beyond the "locks" like Wieters and Matusz. Tough call.
They also could free up Liz, figuring that he would definitely be taken, and is expendable, and then they get to protect others. What is the rule? Once you lose one, can you protect 2 or just 1?
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I believe once you lose a player, you can protect one. That sounds right. I have to be reminded each winter. - Roch
Rock,
Thanks for the 40 man update.
Do you think that Adams and Florimon are likely to get drafted in the Rule 5? I know they have some talent, but with most teams carrying 11 - 13 pitchers, it would be tough to have an infielder whose never played in AAA take up a roster space all year. Only a NL team with a great staff and deep bench (not too many of those) could even consider it.
Speaking of infielders (nice transition don't you think?) I noticed that the Izturis brothers had exactly the same numberof games played (114) and at bats (387). What are the odds on that . . .
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Not if they went in the major league phase and had to stay on the roster all season. Not sure if they'd have to be assigned to Norfolk first so they're not eligible for the minor league phase. It's something like that. Don't have the rule handy or the research time at the moment, but I'm sure someone can jump in here and help us out. - Roch
Roch,
Lets talk management into packaging some of these guys into trades for Lee,and Floyd. Jump on the band wagon, ain't the Kool-Aid cold.
Hey! one of your "Taste of the Future" segments could involve tailgating.
Thanks Leon
Good morning Roch.
My guesses would be Bass, Waters, Liz, Albers, Andino, and Montanez. There are a few more fringe pitchers on the list that could go also.
Currently 35 (when you add in the 3 from the DL), subtract Free Agents (Hendrickson and Baez) gets them to 33 like you stated. Add the 5 minor league players you mentioned to protect them from rule V gets them to 38.
They'll need at least 4-5 spots for FA (and if they want to participate in the rule V) for a C, LHRP (Hendrickson), and a couple of corner infielders. So at least 2 possibly 3 players need to be DFA'd.
Of the 38 players accounted for; 22 are pitchers - 16 are fielders, meaning of the 2 or 3 players needed to be DFA'd they should be pitchers.
Liz is #1 IMO, Spoone is #2, Waters is #3. They could do worse than Andino for a young league minimum backup SS, so he can stay for the meantime. There are a handfull of other AAAA pitchers (Bass, Albers, Sarfate, Castillo) that could be DFA'd, but unlikely at this date.
What are the odds of us not proceeding to waste our time adoring a team that is on pace to have a salary in the bottom three of the league? Explain to me how you go from $95M to $30M in a division that in which one team spends $200M and another spends $140M and expect to compete. I love the O's, I have since I was four years old, this is just a waste of time. Trading Bedard for the package we got was great. Weiters is amazing and will be a GREAT player. In the end, who cares, we cannot compete in this division. The Jays are getting better (Lind) and the Rays are set to have the best rotation in baseball (Shields, Price, Wade Davis, etc.) to compliment Upton, Crawford, Longoria, Pena. Honestly, what are we doing, signing players like Bay will present the exact same problem signing Tex did; therefore, the "growing the arms, signing the bats" theory McPhail is preaching is irrational.
Will I stop wearing my gear, surfing MLB trade rumors for hope, or following the O's? No. Am I done pretending this is a team that is going to matter? Yes.
So the Orioles have several more people to cut. Looking at the names, I can a whole slew of pitcher being cut:
Matt Albers
Danys Baez
Brian Bass
Jason Berken
Alberto Castillo
Mark Hendrickson
Radhames Liz
Dennis Sarfate
Chorye Spoone
Chris Waters
And what about Andino and Montanez. Any chance the O's take a chance with these guys to see if the clear waivers?
And how does it work for someone under contract (e.g., Wigginton)...if he was removed, does he become a free agent immediately with a contract that we must pay?
Our 40 man infield has got to be the worst in baseball. We need a corner bat....bad. Bell is a year away. I think he should give up switch hitting. Would an offer of Arietta and Erbe be the starting point for Adrian Gonzalez or the Prince?