An early season prediction
A talk-show caller had a question on a Baltimore radio show last night. How many games does Andy MacPhail feel the 2010 Orioles can win?
You won't get a straight answer from MacPhail on that one.
Almost any answer he could give would upset someone. If he took a real conservative route and said the team could improve to 75 wins, some fans would say "is that all" and bemoan another long season.
If he said let's shoot for .500 and 81 wins, some would say "there go the O's, shooting to be mediocre."
If he said this team could win 90 or more he'd be accused of over-hyping the club or putting a spin on the season.
While the Orioles look decidedly improved to me, how many more wins will that get them in the rugged AL East?
There are so many questions to be answered. Will the young pitchers like Matusz and Bergesen be as good as they looked in 2009? Will Wieters and Reimold hit even better than they did? How will Tejada be on defense at third? Can Mike Gonzalez be a top closer? Will ketchup, mustard or relish lead the way in the nightly condiment race? (Sorry, couldn't help myself).
I'll probably come through with a more educated prediction late in spring training, but for now I'll say a .500 season would be a solid goal for this club.
That would mean an 81-81 record, which would be a 17-win improvement and even that might be hard to do.
In addition to the overall record, the team needs to show vast improvement in the games vs. Boston and New York, needs improvement in its road record and its record in one and two-run games.
I put a lot of stock in the projected starting rotation for 2010 of Millwood, Guthrie, Bergesen, Matusz and Tillman which seems light years better than the five of Guthrie, Koji, Simon, Hendrickson and Eaton that opened last year.
Having Reimold and Wieters on the team from day one and not starting at Norfolk should be big. Nick Markakis could have a monster year in a revamped O's lineup.
Of course, like with every team, some Orioles will perform better than expected and some will perform worse.
It appears the pieces are in place for a better season. It's about time and soon, under the Florida sun, the club will take the field to start a season that could be the first in a stretch of seasons that return winning baseball for the Orioles and their fans.
By the way, I thought Miguel Tejada could not have handled himself much better at his Tuesday press conference.
He showed respect to the current O's, sounded like the last thing he wanted to do was take Adam Jones' number 10 and said this is his second chance to be a winner in Baltimore.
He said he kept a home here because he wanted to return someday as a player or later in life and called Jones "the future."
He also admitted to watching some Orioles games while getting ready to take the field for games with the Houston Astros.
He also said "this time it's not about me" and praised the O's young talent. He certainly hit every note he needed to hit and seemed totally excited about the coming season.
It was a great first step in his return to Baltimore. Now the fans and media will be watching as he takes bigger steps over the next few months.
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Categories (click for archive)Orioles News | Steve Melewski |
Well said. I'm predicting better than 500 and wild card contention. Dare I say it Second in the AL East behind NY
The other reason he shouldn't give a number is that context matters. If the Orioles win 75 games next year, but are improving week by week and playing well down the stretch, that's a good season. If they win 75 games and are fading down the stretch like they always do, that's a bad season.
Hey Steve, you are absolutely correct about the rotation being better this season vs last and the line-up should be much improved too.
The improved depth of this team should also help as the year goes along. Our farm system sent Wieters, Reimold, Bergessen, Matusz, Tillman, Hernandez & Mickolio to the majors last year and we will have Snyder, Bell, Arrieta, Patton, Erbe & Florimon at Norfolk with guys like Hernandez, Aubrey, Hughes, Lebron & Perrault who may not make the team.
I would like to get Bedard on board too. We have enough depth to cover a couple of stints on the DL and he can be so dominating. plus, I was always a big fan.
Steve:
The season is such a long one, and who knows if our youngsters will make their incremental improvements, who will remain healthy, and who will surprise. Each year the starting and year end rosters look different, sometimes vastly. This year should be more consistent with more players entrenched at their positions. I would say this, I predict we will be playing more meaningful games in September. How one defines meaningful is up for debate.
Another good job Steve. Miggy did a great job in his press conference and I hope he is as excited as he was in his first year or two in Baltimore. He was always talking and looked like he was having fun in the field. The later years wore on him.
As far as a prediction for the Orioles...I think .500 is an admirable goal. I'd just like to see them compete on a nightly basis and bring fans back to the park. It's sad to watch half empty O's games from my home in Orlando or O's games that look like home games for the Stankees and the Dead Sox.
Without a big bat in the lineup I really hope the O's drill the fundamentals and are able to manufacture more runs. It was so disheartening to see them run themselves out of games last year. If Trembley cant get these guys moving in the right direction early...how long does Macphail give him?
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I would think he would get all year with this team, unless things really head south. Who is to know what that would mean, but I have a hard time seeing a scenario where they make an in season change. That said, he by no means has strong job security going into 2010.......Steve
Steve,
In previous posts you have discussed how the Orioles are improving their scouting department; however, you have not touched on the advanced scouts for the majors. I was wondering if the Orioles have improved that area of scouting and how their advanced scouts compare to the Yankees and Red Sox?
Thanks for your insights into the Orioles.
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A good question and there is really no way for the media to know the true impact of advance scouting, since we don't see any of those reports and/or know how those teams use them.....Steve
As I have said before, the Orioles will put together significant improvement over last year and surprise the naysayers. I would expect that we end up between 85-88 wins. There will be many more better than expected results than less than expected. The starting rotation results will be the talk of baseball. We may not make the playoffs but we will be exciting.
I'm optimistic that our young players will really benefit from all the time in the minors they've spent together winning. I also think that they will all improve on their performances last year. The team as a whole is better just by having these guys up for a full season. Miggy is a nice addition to the lineup and I'm definitely hoping Atkins can regain his swing. Things are looking up imo, the bullpen is filling out and our rotation is light years ahead of where it was this time last year.
I'm excited for the Tides this season as well. They should have one of the best rotations in AAA and they won't be picked clean by the parent club as they were last year. (Not that that's a bad thing!)
Excellent point Bonzi. That was what was so discouraging about last season. We had some individual progression and I truly was not expecting a collapse despite the challenges. Trembley cannot retain his job if that occurs for a third straight season and AM would have to be very discouraged. THe sights were set very low last year but not tanking to end the year was a stated goal which was not achieved. Even with the growth the lies ahead, I expect tangible results spearheaded by the young guns this season. Markakis needs to make a jump into the star range as well.
Steve- I agree with everything you posted except I am looking for a little better than a .500 season. I do agree that Miggy handled himself, very well. I would also like to see a return of a "healthy Bedard." Let's play ball!!
It is hard to believe our rotation opening day last year was Guthrie, Koji, Simon, Hendrickson and Eaton. This year, Millwood, Guthrie, Bergesen, Matusz and Tillman. Lets assume one gets hurt they always do and one is a bust (most likely Bergesen) we still have Patton, Areita, Hernandez and Berkin ready to step up. I am impressed.
Steve, It's going to be a much more interesting season to watch than last year. Now the Orioles have many of the pieces in place, but how ready are the youngsters going to be? That's going to be one of the big questions, I think.
Also, what's Dave Trembley going to do in terms of making a lineup that works? He may need to do some early tweaking to see which order is most effective.
The there's Garrett Atkins and Miguel Tejada, who are being called upon to give the O's more run production from the corner infield positions. Miggy should have no trouble improving upon Melvin Mora's absymal 2009 season, but Garrett could find Aubrey Huff a tougher act to follow. While it was a down year for Huff after his huge 2008 campaign, it's important to keep in mind that in 110 games for the O's last year he was still to drive in 72 runs, which would have projected to around 100 RBIs (but not if he played like he did in Detroit after the trade).
If Atkins can get his stroke back, he's a much better hitter against lefties than Huff and much of the Orioles' offensive struggles in recent seasons have come against southpaws. So, this could be a big development.
Against righties Atkins had some good seasons, but much of his recent decline has come because he suddenly stopped hitting them (.199 in 2009). If that trend continues, maybe a platoon will be needed. Can the O's find a spot for Michael Aubrey on the roster for this purpose, since Luke Scott isn't being considered at first.
Speaking of Scott, if he can find some way to avoid the prolonged slumps, his bat would go from being fair but inconsistent to a real force in the lineup. Some think that's never going to happen, but if not it won't be because Luke didn't put the work into getting better, that much we know. I'm hoping he figures it out and am not counting him out by any stretch.
The biggest question mark seems to be in the pitching or maybe I should say question marks, because there is so much uncertainty. Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie are certainly going to give the team plenty of innings, so that's going to take some pressure off of the bullpen, but how many quality starts can they be counted on to make. Millwood's in the later part of his career and it remains to see how much he has left in the tank. Guthrie, on the other hand, is at a crossroad in his career and this season could determine if it takes a upward turn towards better things (which he's certainly capable of) or continues the tailspring from last year.
The there are the handful of promising, but largely inexperienced youngsters, three of which will be depended on to fill out the rotation, barring a late signing. Can Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman or someone else give the O's anything resembling consistent performances from start to start.
The bullpen has its share of uncertainty, too. There are any number of relievers coming back from arm problems and other injuries and the O's need a fair portion of them to be able to bounce back after a disappointing season. As for Mike Gonzalez, he looks like he's the answer as a closer. While he hasn't closed too much in the majors, he has some impressive statistics including a fine 2.57 career ERA and an impressive 330 SO in only 280.2 IP. So he's got the kind of power arm that can lock down wins. Looks like a keeper to me.
I have gone into the other starting position players (Cesar Izturis, Adam Jones, Nick Markais, Nolan Reimold, Brian Roberts and Matt Wieters) because I think they're all dependable in their given roles. With the youngsters it should be more how well they're going to do, rather than whether they'll do well (to me, Reimold and Wieters are a bit ahead of their pitching counterparts in development, with the possible exception of Brad Bergesen). Markakis and Jones should just get better as the maturation process continues. And we know we'll get quality work from Roberts and Izturis; that's a given. (Felix Pie is the wild card in all of this. Very raw, but he sure opened some eyes in the game where he hit for the cycle displaying both power and blazing speed.)
I think the goal the Orioles should shot for should at the very least be 82 wins, because that puts them above .500. The team's been a loser for so long that while 81-81 certainly would be progress, just one more win would mean a lot more symbolically, because it would mean that they didn't just tread water with a .500, but with all their fans could actually say, "We had a winning season....a winning season! Now let's build on it."
This is a 3rd place in the AL East team, and we should finish above .500.
I THINK THE O'S WILL WIN 85 GAMES THIS YR AFTER THE CALL UPS FROM BOWIE AND NORFOLK IN JUNE......MIGGY WILL STRUGGLE AT 3RD BASE AND A PLATOONING OF MIGGY, WIGGY AND ATKINS WILL ENSUE....
THE BRANDON BOYS SYNDER AND WARRING WILL BE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR, ALONG WITH JAKE, ERBE AND PERHAPS ZACK......
REINY, MATT AND JONES WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS WILL OUR PITCHING STAFF, IF ALL STAYS HEALTHY....
STORMY IN SOUTH POINT BERLIN
Is this wrong?
I would accept a losing season if we went .500 or better in the division.
Also in my dream world...
... Reimold and Wieters each hit 30 or 30+ home runs.
... Atkins has 25+ home runs.
... we have more than 1 All Star rep.
... we have one All Star starter.
... Matusz wins Rookie of the Year
... Tillman has 10+ wins
... Pie has 20+ steals
... Roberts has 40+ steals
... we have two or more gold glovers
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If they have a winning record in the division, I would have hard time seeing the Orioles have an overall losing season. it's the best division in baseball.....Steve
I think while we would all love to see the O's battle for the Wild Card we have to stay focused on reality. I would love nothing more than watching them compete for the playoffs even if they came up short. BUT, the reality of it (IMO of course) is they are probably at best going to be a .500 club.
Having said that, there's absolutely nothing wrong with it either. I think it's doable, even in the AL East. Playoffs? (You kiddin' me? Playoffs?), bring em on, I'd love it. My personal thoughts are they're just too young right now and I think they win 77-83 games; which is improvement so I can live with that.
David B said:
Is this wrong?
I would accept a losing season if we went .500 or better in the division....
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If they have a winning record in the division, I would have hard time seeing the Orioles have an overall losing season. it's the best division in baseball.....Steve
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Exactly.
billy from VA, said a winning seasons is with in our grasp. that's 81 or more wins. this team is poised to take the next step. all it takes is a attitude to win every game they play. be loose when they play and have alot of fun together. this is what makes winning teams is to take one game at a time and play your best everyone do there part. Dave Trembley should be very excited about the team he has been given now go out there and teach them how to win like he did in the minor's.. LET GO ORIOLES
It's a miracle we even won 64 games with Radhames Liz, Rich Hill, Adam Eaton, Alfredo Simon starting for us in 2009.
Then the young inexperienced Berken, Hernandez, Tillman type guys. Luckily Matusz/Berg shined.
I still like Koji as emergency backup starter.
• He pitched 7 strong innings vs. the Red Sox w/ 5 k's 2 runs (2.57 ERA).
• In 2 starts vs. NYY he went 1-0, had a 1.64 ERA, 5 k's, 2 runs in 11 IP.
• His 1 game vs. Tampa Bay he had 8 K's, 7 hits in 6.2 IP.
I wouldn't give up on Hernandez/Berken after 1 year viewing.
• Hernandez held the Yanks to 7 hits in 11 innings & 11 K's (the most vs. any team).
• Berken was 5-6 the 2nd part of the season after starting 1-6. Was 3-1 vs. Toronto. Held the Yanks to 6 runs vs. 56 Batters Faced in 11.1 innings.
Your a DOOFUSS if you can't figure out the O's are a better team than the past years.
» Aubrey Huff's attitude vs. Miguel Tejada
» Millwood, Guthrie, Bergy, Matusz, Tillman, Berken, Hernandez vs. Guthrie, Koji, Simon, Hendrickson, Liz, Rich Hill, Eaton
» 1 year seasoning for the youngstars in the MLB with improving performance/statistics as the year went on.
(Reimold, Wieters, Bergy, Matusz, Aubrey etc.)
Steve,
I am the eternal optimist, but I really try to temper my expectations when it comes to the Orioles, as they have not lived up to the hype the past decade or so. That being said, I like how this club is coming together, especially if we can sign some lefthanded pitching (Bedard, Ohman, Hendrickson, cough, cough). I really liked Tejada's comments at his press conference, and I think he's going to be a difference maker for us this year. I also think that Garrett Atkins is going to figure out why his swing was off. I don't know that he'll hit 25 homers, drive in 110, and hit .300, but I'll settle for .280 with 18-20 homers and 85 RBIs. The real progress, though, is going to come from Wieters, Reimold, Jones, and Pie. Pie, to me, is the wildcard. If he continues to progress, he pushes other people (most notably Scott) out of the lineup, and gives us another dimension with his speed.
I am also a HUGE fan of Brian Matusz. Everyone is talking about Wieters being the next god in Baltimore, but I think Matusz is going to be the ace of this staff by midseason, and maybe sooner. He's got the stuff and the mental toughness to succeed - all he needs is more experience. I saw him getting better and better last season before my eyes. I can't wait to see what he'll do this year. I'm also encouraged about Bergesen and Tillman. If Bergesen can build upon what he did last year, and Tillman can begin to pitch like Matusz did last year, we are going to be in really good shape.
There is no doubt in my mind that we are WAY ahead of where we were in July of 2007 when Andy took over. The farm system is stocked, there are a ton of young players on the team, and free agents are starting to come to Baltimore again. I call this our "Bounce" year. We hit bottom last year, losing 98 games. I am going to predict an 84-78 year, with Baltimore finishing third in the AL East. We are going to figure out a way to go 17-19 against NY and Boston, and beat up on Toronto a bit more now that they don't have Halladay. We're also going to win more of these close games this year.
Despite all of the negativity (which is understandable if you only look at the W-L records from the last 12 years), we are on our way back up, and are in a much better position in January 2010 than we were in July 2007.
My prediction: Orioles shock the baseball world by finishing just 4 games behind the Yankees to win the AL Wild Card with a record of 91-71. Guthrie, Bergesen and Matusz all win 15+ games. Atkins hits 32 dongs. Reimold, Scott and Markakis collects 100+ rbi. Jones, Tejada and Wieters are not far behind with 85+ RBI. Boston fires Francona in August after the Red Sox fall to 4th place and 8 games under .500. Surprise World Series MVP: Ty Wigginton. You heard it here first. If you're going to dream, dream big. Now pass that Orange Whiskey.
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Wow, Montana fan, you are going way out on a limb and let me take a swig of that drink as well. With that rotation, now with Lackey, I would almost think the O's have a better chance of reaching your 91 wins that Boston has of falling to 4th place, eight games under .500. If it happens, you are the man......Steve
What exactly are you drinking out there in Montana, O's Fan? Can I have some?
Here is my prediction:
Wieters: 23 HR, 84 RBI, .294
Atkins: 21 HR, 81 RBI, .281
Roberts: 12 HR, 78 RBI, .298, 42 steals
Tejada: 18 HR, 96 RBI, .306
Izturis: 1 HR, 52 RBI, .265, 20 steals
Reimold: 24 HR, 79 RBI, .284, 10 steals
Jones: 26 HR, 88 RBI, .286, 21 steals
Markakis: 24 HR, 108 RBI, .308, 15 steals
Scott: 22 HR, 72 RBI, .272
Pie: 12 HR, 58 RBI, .278, 18 steals
Millwood: 14-11, 4.22 ERA
Guthrie: 13-10, 3.92 ERA
Matusz: 15-9, 3.88 ERA (rookie of the year)
Bergesen: 13-10, 4.12 ERA
Tillman: 9-10, 4.43 ERA
Gonzalez: 3-4, 32 saves, 2.92 ERA
Orioles finish 84-78, in 3rd place.
Steve-
Well, he is in a no win situation. But, whatever, we have to shoot for the playoffs. Every year. Regardless. Either way, its taking way too long to rebuild this club.
They Rays are a small market expansion team that got there in 9 seasons.
They will contend for the AL East for the 3rd year in a row.
The O's are a large market team with history that few have, and we just can't get it right.
Very small gains here and there. And those gains are totally arguable.
Some would say aside from the youth, we are actually regressing, by not being able to sign Texiera, or another top caliber player over the last 2 seasons.
Who knows.
But I still think you have to say, we are going to make the playoffs regardless of who is on the 25 man roster.
Eventually, the front office is going to have to answer questions about why they can't sign or trade for a top player.
Next offseason has a few more players, if they keep going without spending some money beyond just fielding a team, and by that I mean they have to carry a payroll near $100 million, we will be fixed with the stigma of just a lower franchise, like the Lions, or Pirates.
Agree with everything you said. A .500 season would be a big coup for this team, although many won't see it that way.
Steve,
I believe they will be around if not better than 500. One thing I will point out, the Yankees are worse, their outfield is probably the worse in the AL east. Their catcher is getting older and can't throw anyone out. Petite will be 38, Rivera will be 40, AJ will be injured by midseason, Nick Johnson will be also, Jeter is also getting old too, their bullpen will not be all that good. Boston is much better than the Yankees.
I will wait to give a "real prediction" till after Spring Training, but they will obviously better.
I'm going the Andy McPhail route. I think it's nearly impossible to guess the wins and losses. (injuries, 1 run games, terribe managing etc.) Last year my preseason stat predictions for the players were very close to the final numbers, except that I was off by about 14wins. In retrospect, I didn't take into account enough, just how terrible the starting rotation was to start the season.
All that being said, I'm expecting drastic improvements this year, attributed to much better pitching and younger players that are now entrenched in their positions and have more seasoning. If Tejada can help teach the young guys how to win and be competitive while at the same time playing loose and trusting each other, well I think anything is possible.
P.S: Tom Mcallister, statistical predictions that I sent to a friend two days ago are "scary" similar to yours across the board. Did you hack into my e-mail account? JK!
I find it funny that no one mentions Trembley being a reason the Os might win or lose however many games. To me he is the biggest problem.