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Roch,
Are you prepared for the snow this time? Or are you gonna rely on your neighbors again? Florida's right around the corner! Have a safe weekend and thanks for all the latest news.
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I have a shovel and broom, but no gloves. Two out of three ain't bad. Be safe, everyone. - Roch

Roch,

Hot tip that the O's are reaching a deal with Chris Schmidt, 20 something pitcher from Florida to probably fill a roll in lower levels of the minors. He's a childhood friend of a friend. Supposedly his agent pursued a spot for him early in the off-season but the O's declined... Until two days ago when they called him up with an offer. I would guess it has something to do with the suspension.

Not remotely Earth shattering, but I always like to pass on some news.

Kyle
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And I'll gladly take it. Thanks! - Roch

Would that be $88?

I heard that Albert wanted 88 gold teeth but only if he got to collect them with his shoulder.

Andrew - The reson that Miggy hits into a lot of dps is not simply because he hits the ball hard. He often hits weak or medium hit groundballs, near the bag, that turn into easy doubleplays, partially because he doesn't always hustle out of the box like he should.

That's an exciting GM Seattle has. Granted he had Felix coming in, but that's a scary rotation now. Especially if Bedard regains form. Mariners had a great offseason. Texas and Seattle will be battling all year for that division.

Not a team built for a marathon, but their 2010 sprint should be exciting.

Just wanted to say that MASN's Wall-to-Wall Baseball was much better when you were on it yesterday. MASN should make you a regular or is that something you'd rather not do?
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I was invited back today but couldn't make it. I enjoy doing the show. - Roch

On balance, we're better off without Bedard. I know he's talented and has an upside, but the downside just doesn't seem worth it. Go with the young guns, Millwood, etc.

Just noticed the ad at the top of the page for "Natsfest." Is that related to that time Joba was attacked on the mound? Or that old picture of the spray cans on the mound back in the 1960s or something?

Sometimes, as bad as it gets, it's ok to be an O's fan. It could be worse.

Roch, it hurts to see Seattle beat us to Bedard. Cudos to Seattle's new GM and his aggressive stance this winter. Bedard in his prime would make him the #3 starter in Seattle as opposed to being the ace for the O's. Bedard was choosing between the O's and the Mariners and was not impressed with Andy MacSnail's nickel and dime tactics, combined with 12 straight losing seasons.

Roch,

Sorry if I missed it, but will there be a Hot Stove Show tonight?
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Yes, but Jeremy Conn is hosting from the studio because he's already in the building to do Playmakers. Jim Hunter and I will call into the show. - Roch

I agree with Paul on DT.

But (trying) to stay positive, in fairness DT has always operated like an interim/lame duck manager. What else can you expect? He turns to the guys who have been there or in the majors longer than him to help guide the ship. But it never works out and the cart ends up pulling the horse. The fruit growing the vine.

Trembley acts like he could be gone at any second so he is just maintaining the status quo. Playing it safe. Doing enough NOT to get fired. Operating in a DEFENSIVE manner.

Until Andy commits one way or another to DT, we will continue to see a team in peril every summer. Trembley needs a mandate to run the team, not another "one year contract with an option".

Roch,

Nice reference to 'Mr Freeze' (a.k.a. Albert Belle) on the impendng weather situation! I recommend armor shrouds for the museum's themostats prior to the Albert Belle tribute presuming his pending probabtion officer's approval.

Well, off topic but I'm flying down to Miami on Sunday AM, not to go to the game but to go on a 7 day cruise to the western Caribbean. Will have limited access to (actually time for) the interwebz but will check in from time to time. I'll drink a Mai tai for everyone, even bizarro Brummie.

The O's should offer more money for Bedard. Does half a million really matter? Or an option that we can opt of at the end of the year. Guess the Orioles don't want him that badly, which I think is a mistake.

John in NYC: I'm not a student, but I am a clinical psychologist. I'm ethically forbidden from diagnosing people in absentia, but I can say that sociopathic attention-seeking isn't as fascinating to me as it seems to be to others around here.

Bill G: Sorry to be so long-winded. I was vaccinated with a phonograph needle.

Roch (and jdb): Great photo and letter from Caleb. Wonderful stuff. So has anyone anywhere ever uttered a discouraging word about Brian Matusz? Between him and Wieters we may have the first divine battery.

Hi Roch, I've got 2 tickets to the Babe Ruth Birthday Bash next Friday. Do you know what food is served there to ticket holders? thanks Man.
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Sorry, I don't. Give them a call. Sounds like it's going to be a good time. - Roch

I was going to Babe Ruth's birthday bash myself until I found out he wasn't alive anymore.
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Should be more cake for you. - Roch

Brummie_Oriole said:

Until Andy commits one way or another to DT, we will continue to see a team in peril every summer. Trembley needs a mandate to run the team, not another "one year contract with an option".

I see your point, and appreciate the positive tone of your post. I only offer this in contrast, not saying it is right or wrong, but Walter Alston managed to win manager of the year 6 times in his tenure while going 23 consective years as the Dodger manager on 23 one-year contracts. (Did I really put all of that in one sentence?) I do admit this is a different time, but multi-year contracts for managers were the norm for most of Mr. Alston's tenure.

I think DT will be just fine. I think he was forced to make a lot of bull pen decisions that he knew woould probably not work, but if starters consistently go 5 or less innings, the whole team suffers. I do agree he tends to rely too much on some folks.

Joey said: "I was going to Babe Ruth's birthday bash myself until I found out he wasn't alive anymore."

Roch Replied: "Should be more cake for you."

I say: "Very funny gentlemen. Thanks for the laugh."
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I think Joey and I should take this act on the road. - Roch

Hey Roch, after further investigation (aka, now that I'm able to access a computer), it seems like Schmitt was already with the organization.

They signed him to the gulf coast affiliate in July (http://tinyurl.com/yckxcq2).

but I think his recent signing may have been a new deal, resigning or an upgrade. Regardless, still not earth shattering.

As for Bedard, while I would have loved to see both he and Tejada come back just to bring each deal full circle, he's not the best option for The O's. Then you're talking about Millwood, Guthrie and a Bedard with spots and only room for Tillman and Matusz in the rotation. Where would Bergy fit in?

I'd rather them save the money and take a shot at Jose Reyes next off-season.

Kyle

Ray,

do you have statistical analysis to back up your claim that he hits mediumto weak grounders up the middle at players.

He did not run out a few groundballs on a historically losing team near the end of seasons.

Bottom line if you actually know anything about baseball and not fantasy baseball, hitting into Dp's has more to do with/

1.) Is there runners on when you come up to bat...

2.) Not striking out..(Hint, thats a good thing)

3. Having slower baserunners in front of you.(Hint- not roberts)

2nd is the only logical place to bat Miggy END OF STORY

Ray,

Check out this link..

I guess Cal hit into to many double plays(also Brooks)

Hitting into DP's does not factor into whether you are a good hitter or not. It is a matter of circumstance more than anything else.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/higidp2al.shtml

OCJ...Ok for being long winded. I read and understood every word, unlike some of the other entries...didn't quite get those stats of '.1'...
I'm sure it's some sort of Sabermetrics to describe a pitcher's effectiveness. I just used my eyeballs to figure out if they are worthy of the $$ bestowed to them.

I have say I liked DT when he came in, but was totally uninspired last season with how he used the bench (more precisely how he did not use it).
Also underwhelmed with the bullpen rotation and his general cow towing to some players (eg. Mora, Huff, Baez...) who were undeserving of such reverence. I think AM agreed w/ my eyeballs.

Blizzard tip:
Tito's and pink lemonade...feels like August even w/ the snow coming down.

I second Reid's applause - you and Joey had me laughinh out loud. My dog was quite confused. But not as confused as she would have been if Brummie HADN'T told us he agrees with Paul. At least I know the snow is not the result of Hell freezing over...

Should we make anything of the Joel(?) Guzman (again, sp?) minor league deal?
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Nah. Just Triple-A inventory. - Roch

Speculated reasons among industry types include a bigger ballpark, competing in the AL West and pitching for a team with a better chance to contend in 2010. Advantage: Seattle.
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Makes sense to me since Bedard doesn't have the heart or the stomach to face tough competition. No doubt he'll pitch lights out against the Royals but get "gassed" after five innings against the Yanks and Red Sox.

Having seen Nick M. at fanfest and given that he has been described as the "face of the franchise," what does his look say about the orioles organization this year?

Was listening to the local sport talk radio show in San Francisco, and they had Keith Law (from ESPN) on for a few segments. The host asked Law to name one prospect that we probably hadn't heard of that we will know all about by the end of the season. Law named O's pitcher Zach Britton!

Here we go again...Why most you are still talking Bedard,Bedard,Bedard.For starters it was reportsed that he was probably going to re-sign with the Mariners.And those of you that have DO NOT have a clue!! Why would you wanna sign someone who would not be ready for spring training,opening day or who knows when! It is rediculous to even ask.....

Oh well on the Bedard front. It would have been nice to see him back with the Birds, but I'm not exactly going to cry over the loss. If we are in need of another pitcher in May or June I'd rather see Jake Arrieta anyway (and that's for his talent ... his yumminess factor is just an added bonus)

Thank you, amarie, for the mental image of Nolan pushing Matt around the bases! Now I can't stop picturing the scene in "Stand By Me" where the skinny kid is pushing the fat kid to go faster across the bridge so they don't get hit by the train. Kind of gave me the giggles.

Kyle - nice suggestion about Reyes. I'll bet the Mets excercise their option and keep him through 2011 though. Maybe the O's sign Izturis for another year and have a shot at Reyes in 2012.

Re: Bedard - IMO while he's a nice arm when he's pitching, he's not on the mound enough to justify the cost (even if it is incentive laden). Roch did a nice job of outlining the reasons he chose (apparently) to stay in Seattle.

To those who said "we should have just given him more money", just how much more money do you think it would have taken to sway his decision?

To those who ask "where would Bergesen (or Matusz or Tillman) fit if we sign Bedard (or some other veteran SP)?", remember that no one was figuring that Bedard would make 32 starts. Rarely, if ever, does every member of a team's starting rotation make their every start. The O's used 12 starters last year - only 1 over 25 starts. There'll likely be plenty of opportunities for the young guys to get their feet wet (or continue their swimming lessons).

I'm not so sure on DT...my concern is we fall on our faces late in the year. Someone has to be able to motivate these guys. Before we blamed Raffy's positive test deflating the team, then it was Mazzilli's fault, then it was Miggy's bad attitude (who's back ? ). Millar couldn't get them to cowboy up. It rests on the manager. Obviously, our clubhouse vets ( B-Rob, Nick, etc) may be nice guys, but aren't being leaders. Just my opinion, but no matter who we add, if we tank late in the year it's a concern. These guys get paid alot to be professionals...being a professional isn't just cashing a check

Roch:

I know you called the Guzman acquisition "inventory", but I'm excited to have him. Baseball America named him the Dodgers #1 prospect in 2005 and #3 prospect in 2006, and their best power prospect both years. He's only 25 years old, 6'6" and 250 lbs., according to Baseball-Reference, but came up as a SS. Last year with the Nationals AA team in Harrisburg (go Amarie!) he played mostly 3B. I wonder how he fits at Norfolk, since it is expected that Bell plays 3B and Snyder or Hughes plays 1B. I can't imagine that he goes back to SS. Does he go to Bowie? He could have a monster year there.
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Too soon to say, but I could see Bowie being a possibility. I was wondering where he fit on Norfolk's roster. Pretty crowded there. - Roch

For those concerned with Miggy's DP's - a big reason is that he only had
38 K's last year which means he puts the ball in play. Thus more DP's -- but also more hits, advanced runners, Sac Flys, opportunities for an error etc. Guys that K 130+ times a year will obviously hit in less DP's but is 130 K's a good thing???

As far as Tajada hitting into a lot of DP's. I would think the #3,4, and 5 hitters on almost every team, are also the leaders in GIDP. Just because they come to the plate with runners on base more often. I haven't done any research to back that up(and dont plan too), but I'm sure someone out there has the stats to prove or disprove that.

Ray said:
Andrew - The reson that Miggy hits into a lot of dps is not simply because he hits the ball hard. He often hits weak or medium hit groundballs, near the bag, that turn into easy doubleplays, partially because he doesn't always hustle out of the box like he should.
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Ray, Don't post stupid stuff; that's what Roch hires the trolls to do.

orange crayon jesus said:

Bill G: Sorry to be so long-winded. I was vaccinated with a phonograph needle

OJC - Cool Aerosmith reference ......."No Surprise"

Mark Hendrickson's official signing should be announced by April 5th as we wait for a second Monday to pass.

I assume that he was always going to sign again with the O's anyway, because his return was never an urgent matter and still isn't apparently.

Roch, I'm curious about where you're getting this that the Orioles made an offer to Bedard. If they did, it must have been very recently, because as of yesterday morning he told Larry LaRue, the Seattle News-Tribune reporter convering the Mariners, that he had not up to that time received concrete offers from team.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2010/02/04/bedard-on-mariners-id-love-to-be-back/

If you read that article, though, it was pretty obvious that Erik wanted to go back to Seattle and can anyone really blame him. He said "Getting Cliff Lee? Man, with Felix (Hernandez) and Lee at the top of the rotation, how are you ever going to lose?" (If you were a starter, which rotation would you want to join, the Orioles' or one with two aces? Easy choice, when looked at from that angle.)

Then, of course, the Mariners also got Chone Figgens to hit behind (?) Ichiaro. They look like a team that will compete in the AL West.

Now that Bedard isn't an option, Roch, what starters do you think the O's might consider?

Super Bowl aside: Mike Preston of the Sun is picking the Colts to win big, by at least two scores. While that may sound like he's going out on a limb, but he actually has some good company in that regard.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bal-sp.preston05feb05,0,1029251.column

"I don't think it's going to be close," former Colt head coach Tony Dungy has opined. He bases this not only on number 18 (he got a dig on "the best coach in the world," saying he'd punt the ball to Brady, but Belichick didn't want Manning to get his hands on the ball again so he tried to hand on to keep possession), but on his conviction that the Colts aren't likely to turn the ball over and shoot themselves in the foot the way the Vikings did (who still nearly beat the Saints).

http://www.indystar.com/article/20100205/SPORTS03/2050443/1100/Dungy-I-don-t-think-it-s-going-to-be-close

Oh, and ESPN's Bill Simmons trumps them when he asks the ultimate money question: "Has Manning reached that hallowed MJ/Montana/Bird/Federer 'Don't Bet Against Me, It's Just a Bad Idea' level?"

http://www.indystar.com/article/20100205/SPORTS03/100125015/1100/

I find myself largely in agreement with them. Unless New Orleans can find a way to get enough cheap hits on Peyton, their defense is highly suspect and teams have run up the score on them on a number of occasions this season, including Favre and company. Combine that with the way Manning shredded the Jets' top-ranked defense, and Indy could really run up the score.

Conversely, as good as Brees and the Saints offense is, they still have a more formidable challenge in Indy's defense than they found in either Arizona or Minnesota. Freeney's condition levels things a little, but ultimately not enough. (NEWS ITEM: Wayne was injuried in practice today, but Caldwell says it's minor in nature.)

SUPER BOWL XLIV FINAL SCORE:
Indianapolis Colts 38
New Orleans Saints 24
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I think Bedard was just trying to keep everything quiet, and I don't know what his agent passed along to him. I was told offer made, and a revision. I spoke with MacPhail briefly yesterday. No idea what other starters would interest them. None that want a major league deal. - Roch

Andrew said:

Bottom line if you actually know anything about baseball and not fantasy baseball, hitting into DP's has more to do with/

1.) Is there runners on when you come up to bat...

2.) Not striking out..(Hint, thats a good thing)

3. Having slower baserunners in front of you.(Hint- not roberts

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

First, I don't need statistical analysis to know that Miggy hit many medium to weak groundballs near 2nd base in 2007. Why? Because I actually watch the games, almost all of the games. That's where I learn what I know about the game(Note: I've beeen watching since 1965). Secondly, I have never played fantasy baseball in my life and I don't intend to any time soon.

In your first post you commented that Miggy hits into so many dp's for one reason . . . because he hits the ball hard. Then later you say this, "Hitting into DP's does not factor into whether you are a good hitter or not". If not contradictory those two statements are at least confusing.

You try to throw Cal and Brooks into the argument by suggesting that they also hit into too many doubleplays. This is an argument that you don't want to make. Let's compare Cal, Brooks, and Miggy and your reasoning above.

1) Are there runners on when you come to bat . . . . Hey Andrew, it's baseball. Everyone comes up to bat with runners on. Cal, Brooks, and Miggy were all middle of the lineup hitters. Brooks and Cal played on far better teams than Miggy, so it should make sense that they came up more often with runners on base and would therefore hit into more dp's. Right? The statistics as you will see later don't support that.

2) Not striking out . . . . Can't argue with you here, but Miggy also hits into more DP's because he hardly ever walks(19 in 2009).

3) Having slower runners in front of you . . . hint: not Roberts. Not sure why you would bring up Roberts here. Miggy hit third or fourth most of his Orioles career. I'm sure Brian Roberts was on base many times when he came to bat. Cal, often came to bat with Brady(comparable to Roberts) on base. Brooks spent most of his career hitting behind Boog Powell a major disadvantage according to your argument.

Knowing so much about baseball, I am surprised that you were unable to come up with the main reason why some players hit into so many doubleplays. That would be that players speed, or lack thereof. It's why Maury Wills, Lou Brock, Brady Anderson, and Rickey Henderson rarely hit into DP's. It's why Jim Rice topped the list on the website you mentioned. He was slow? Real slow? Cal was real slow. Brooks makes Wieters look like Rickey Henderson. But Miggy, over his career, has not been all that slow.

Here are some stats from baseballreference.com:

Seasons - Miggy(13), Brooks(23), Cal(21)

Career at bats - Miggy(7,320), Brooks(10,654),
Cal(11,551)

Career GIDP's - Miggy(245), Brooks(297),
Cal(350)

# of Seasons in career with 20+ GIDP's -
Miggy(7), Brooks(3), Cal(4)

Percentage of seasons played in which player grounded into 20+ DP's - Miggy(53%)
Brooks(13%), Cal(19%)

# of GIDP's from age 30-35(Miggy's last six seasons) - Miggy(161), Brooks(99), Cal(109)

As for speed, Miggy has stolen more bases in his career(78) than Cal and Brooks did combined(74). Hence he should hit into fewer DP's.

Looking at the above stats it is a flawed arguement to suggest that we should ignore Miggy's propensity to hit into DP's because Cal and Brooks did also. They don't even compare to Miggy.

Miggy averaged 25 GIDP's in his four seasons with the Orioles and hit into 61 the past two seasons as an Astro. Those numbers are frightening. Yet, you say that 2nd is the only logical place for him to bat. Batting second he takes the bat out of the hands of our best hitters. To me the only logical place for him to bat is 7th or eighth. Let him take the bat out Itzturis' hands.

What happened to Anita Marks?
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Pursuing other opportunities. - Roch

Roch, whats your prediction for the SuperBowl?(who dat)
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Colts. I just want a close game. And my power to still be on. - Roch

I think 15-20 starts for Bedard in 2010 is best case. Given he would ask out when healthy after 5 or 6 innings, Seattle is not likely to have to pay on a lot of the incentives. 100 innings would be a good guess-timate of what he can offer this year. The absence of an option for 2011 means he could rebuild arm strength and value in 2010 and be on the market next winter, hopefully after proving he is healthy. Millwood likely leaves after this year and Bedard may be a viable replacement.

Hey Roch, the AP is now saying as soon as Bedard passes a physical he will resign with the Mariners. As you and others have suggested, it looks like a done deal. It is a bargain if he returns to form; not much to lose if he does not. I, for one, think it is very early to pass judgment. An earlier report had his throwing limited to 70 feet near his Canadian home. Now, he goes to Arizona and hopes that an agent with a reputation for helping pitchers extend their careers can do the same for him. I wish him well, but there are a lot of unanswered questions here, not the least of which is that he may not be ready to pitch until July.

Hey Roch, According to a Canadian newspaper, La Droit, Bedard has agreed to a one year contract with the Mariners, was in Seattle on Friday to take a physical with the deal to be announced on Saturday. Once reporters got wind of the deal, it became public very quickly. From other print stories, Bedard is talking about being back in May, but he says he may be a few weeks later. Doesn't want people to get the idea that......

bre karpathie, is it true ? we cant give bedard a decent offer,? come on menetes you can do better then this!!

bre karpathie, is it true ? we cant give bedard a decent offer,? come on menetes you can do better then this!!

Andrew
I am not the Ray you were talking to, but thanks for the link to the top players who hit into double plays. Looking at the list I noticed that those who hit into a lot of double plays are also very good hitters. Could it be that because these good hitters are always making contact with the ball they have more opportunities to ground into double plays? I didn't check all the names out, but I know Brooks and Cal were NOT your every day run of the mill ball players. GIDP is not a good way to judge a players worth. Everyone have a good day. It's sunny and 53 degrees in Nazareth today and I don't need a shovel. I thought I would throw that in.
Ray

Wow. The blizzard made the news over here. Snowpacolypse is what they are ze Germans are calling it. Cheers from Berlin!

Roch-

Let me tell you, I am actually quite enthused about this Guzman guy. He was a VERY highly touted prospect, as I am sure you knew.
Anyway, he has regressed the last few years, but, sometimes that just happens when they don't get steady playing time.
It takes at LEAST 150 at bats of EVERYDAY playing time at the MLB level before you can really tell if they will survive.

This guy is 25, so there is still time, and you never know when they might run into a coach that tweaks something that straigtens them out.
Like Johan Santana being good but not great, then a rule 5, then .....

I don't know where he will be assigned, I assume Norfolk but, its pretty full there for CI's.

What's with all the DP discussions? Must we be reminded who owns the record for hitting into DPs? He did OK in Baltimore.

Now back to the snow blower. Only 10" in Central Jersey.

Huh. So the Nats signed Shawn Estes. Ten bucks if you actually knew Shawn Estes was still playing baseball...

Mstrchef and Ryan... don't mean to curb your enthusiasm about Joel Guzman but I wouldn't get my hopes up. Yes, he was highly touted at one point indicating he did have the tools and the instincts when he was younger. However, he slipped back down to Double-A last year after two seasons in Triple-A and he did not exactly set the league on fire. His walks-to-strikeouts ratio is dismal. Not only that, but my guess is he is growing out of his baseball body given his size. It's not unusual for some prospects to peak as early as their late teens or early 20s in terms of their athleticism before beginning a long decline.

I root for all prospects, especially the long shots but I'd be surprised if Guzman even gets another Major League sniff at this point in his career. Holes need to be filled in the minors, and I suspect that is his calling at this point. I'd like to be proven wrong, but I'm not expecting it in this case.

Roch:

You are the general manager for one day, what move or moves would you make?

Frank
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Try to add another veteran starter in case one or more of the "cavalry" struggles in spring training. - Roch

According to MLBTR.com this is the list of remaining starters:

Starting pitchers
Brandon Backe (32)
Cha Seung Baek (30)
Kris Benson (34)
Paul Byrd (39)
Bartolo Colon (37)
Adam Eaton (32)
Tom Glavine (44)
Mike Hampton (37)
Livan Hernandez (35)
Jason Jennings (31)
Jason Johnson (36)
Braden Looper (35) - Type B, not offered arb
Noah Lowry (29)
Pedro Martinez (38)
Eric Milton (34)
Dustin Moseley (28)
Mark Mulder (32)
Odalis Perez (33)
Sidney Ponson (33)
Mark Prior (28)
Jason Schmidt (37)
John Smoltz (43)
Brett Tomko (37)
Chien-Ming Wang (30)
Jarrod Washburn (35)
Todd Wellemeyer (31)
Kip Wells (33)

So whom on that list do you go after? Do you go after one of the injury-risk types in Wang, Washburn, or Wells? Do you go after one of those older guys like Colon?

Wow, TMO. I looked up a bunch of guys on that list, and there are two that I have mild interest in: Wang (who might be ready to pitch this year, maybe) and Washburn (who wants more money and years than we have any interest in offering). Everyone else on that list is a combination of injured beyond repair, terrible, and clubhouse headache. Some have retired (Schmidt and Glavine, I believe), while others should (Eaton). Looper turned down a higher offer from us last year to pitch in Milwaukee, then proceeded to lead the NL in Earned Runs (113) and HRs (39) allowed.

I say we go with what we have rather than sign one of these bottom feeders, unless we can get Washburn on a one-year deal for a reasonable price.