Find MASN on your cable or satellite provider.

Wow. Trembley seems to have turned over a new leaf. He COMMUNICATED more in this post about the team's plan than the Front Office has in the last year.

I am very excited about the race for the 5th spot in the rotation. Tillman has to be the favourite because of his upside and prospect status, but I think Berken might have something to prove before it is all said and done.

Would it be a total blow if after reading about all this snow you guys are getting I told you I bought a Honda S2000 convertible last night and it's 70 degrees here?

Hang in there, Roch. Not much else we can do. Over 30" here at my place in Garrett County and it's still coming down.

Good luck with you shoveling Roch....I'm with ya on pitchers and catchers....I'm sick of the snow myself...lucky for you, you will be in sunny warm Florida soon while the rest of us stay here to suffer...

I don't understand why the orioles didn't offer Bedard slightly more than the Mariners offered. I mean the Mariners only offered 1.5 M, why didn't the orioles offer 2M? He could potentially be the Ace of the team.

Roch,

Greetings from Allegany County where we have about 34 inches of snow (and counting). I agree in giving all the pitchers a shot at that 5th rotation spot, however I feel that Hernandez would be an excellent bullpen guy, possibly our future closer. I'd like to see Berken fit in somewhere long enough whereas he could be part of a trade package down the road.

Have fun digging out down that way, up here it's just another winter day.

Brummie, Im proud of you, ever since I called you out for being negative all the time, you are actually starting to sound like a true orioles fan....

Roch:

You could have been dreaming about the polar bear. Remember, you were just on the show with Tom Davis, He's big enough to fill that role with his white hair. Love it when you're on there. Unfortunately, they got snowed out this morning. Don't know what to do with my Saturday baseball fix.

Talked to my sister-in-law this morning at 8 a.m. and she said it was 69 degrees and sunny. It won't be long before you'll be down there with that other polar bear, Schmuck. Keep digging, that way you can skip the gym today.

JO

Hey Roch, This is my final comment on the bedard situation. An article in the Seattle Times this morning claims that Bedard signed a one year deal with a "mutual option for 2011." Part of a quote from Bedard, "My first choice was to return to Seattle....." Some media are claiming "just a one year deal. Larry Stone is the writer. Here is the link:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin/PrintStory.pl?document_id=2011000487&zsection...

Live over by the airport and was up at 5:00 am digging out a place in the back yard for the dog to do this business. Thinking of building an igloo.

Poor Berken and Hernandez... mentioned again in tandem... It's a shame they always get lumped together because they're not remotely similar. Hernandez could be major league ready this season and has a power arm. Berken has neither.

Bedard seems to be a person who has a hard time getting comfortable in a situation, and he is comfortable in Seattle. I think that to get him here it would have taken a significantly higher guaranteed salary than the O's were willing to risk on another labrum injury.

I've been shoveling every couple of hours since the snow started getting heavy last night - being a dog owner has its drawbacks!

Back to baseball - I understand what Dave is trying to say, but unless Chris Tillman suffers a total spring meltdown, breaking camp without him in the starting rotation doesn't make any sense to me. We pretty much got a full year to see what both Berken & Hernandez can do and neither one has the upside of Tillman. That isn't to say they don't deserve a shot in MLB, but quite frankly I have finally gotten to the point where my patience is wearing thin - at least when it comes to "giving a look" at average pitchers - when we know we have potential front of the rotation prospects knocking at the door.

If Tillman doesn't make the starting rotation & is forced back to AAA (which we already know he can handle) it better be because someone like Arrieta or Patton flat out beat him for the spot.

Roch, Yesterday you wrote regarding possible plans by the Orioles to acquite a starting pitcher now that Bedard has been taken: "No idea what other starters would interest them. None that want a major league deal."

Just for clarification, do you have any idea whether they'll even consider going another one? Logically, it would follow that if they had that much interest in Bedard, then they want veteran presence among their starters in addition to Millwood. Not to mention that there are still several arms still available that are comparable to Bedard's which can be had at a comparable cost.

I think your old Sun colleague Peter Schumck may want to do a shirt inventory, because it looks like a Colts' beat reporter for the Indy Star may have been rummaging through his collection! Check it out....LOL

http://www.indystar.com/section/videonetwork#/Super+Bowl+XLIV+Preview%3A+Colts+vs.+Saints/64254077001
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I was told not unless something drastic happens. It's not expected to happen. - Roch

They need to consider converting Patton to a reliever and look at Britton as the next LH starer.O's are desperate for a future lefty reliever. Sounds like tillman is headed to AAA like I been saying all along. I don't even think Matuz is a lock. But for crying out loud let starters start games this ST and relievers be relievers. It was all bass ackwards last year.

Roch,

I feel your pain about not being able to open that door this morning. I couldn't get my paper today, there was too much beach sand blocking the way.

I want the complement you on the nice job you've done on the blog. You have done well in dealing with some of the interesting personalities who visit this site. Knowing that you are assoicated with the Orioles from a business perspective, I think you have remained relatively objective. Moreover, your sense of humor has kept the slow news days interesting. Nice job, I enjoy your work.

Brummie made a very keen observation in his second sentence above. A few days ago someone was talking about bringing the starting pitching prospects up and have them begin their work in the majors in long relief and transition into the starting rotation. That is what the Orioles did years ago. The media has assigned Tillman as being in the rotation and Hernandez as being a long reliever. Both are capable and a healthy competition could prove, as Brummie states, exciting.

Thanks again.
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Thanks Mike. Appreciate it. - Roch

We traded our son to eskimos for whale blubber

Just reading this article & some of the posts makes me smile...we have some pitching ! It will not come together this year, but we are on the right track ! Optimism

Back to shoveling...

Roch, I imagine this is wreaking havoc on your birthday shopping?

In Elkridge, my neighborhood isn't due to be plowed out until Tuesday according to the Howard County website.

I'm glad Tillman isn't a lock for the 5th spot. I thought he regressed as the season ended last year, although that could have been just fatigue. Plus, he may be something special so don't use up that service time before you have to!

I go outside to uncover my car (I'm short, so it ended up getting a "snowhawk") and one of our apartment maintenance guys comes by with a snowblower. And he completely covered my dog. (Okay, *I* laughed, for which I'll see her revenge later as a puddle in the living room, I'm sure.) Dude said he just didn't see her; she's already white, as were the hat and scarf she was wearing.

Maybe I should have kept that last part to myself.

Hi Roch, Your day sounds no fun at all...burr and crazy..I was just reading about it...sounds terrible...it is sunny and 70 degrees in Ft Myers Beach,FL today very windy like you guys....YOU JEALOUS???????? I bet so...Sarasota sounds better by the moment doesn't it???? Kinda why I moved to FL is that weather back home today....good read on the pitchers..and good assessment on the #5 starter...never know who might wow out there in ST..Berken, Hernandez, Tillman....I doubt the younger guys make it like Patton, Arrieta and I would be very surprised if Berken does..but Hernandez may surprise...but in the end I think it will be Tillman. Stay warm....hope you guys have electric for heat and cable for the Super Bowl by Sunday...you gotta watch my Colts kill the Saints. Be safe.....
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Thanks Craig. - Roch

Hang in roch I'm just outside of richmond and it's still coming down pretty good so you got a ways to go yet.

Could Lord Rock....left the door open while shoveling your car out...like to see that heating bill.

What's your thought on Alfredo Simon pitching opportunities?

I am addicted to your blog site...keep up the good work.
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Left it cracked. No way I was taking any chances getting stuck outside at 5 a.m. Remember, I still don't have any gloves. Simon is recovering from Tommy John. I don't expect him to do much. He only made rotation last April because the Orioles needed someone to step up late in camp and he put together a couple good starts in a row. - Roch

Roch,

Resistance to Mother Nature is futile... That being said, you do have spring training to look forward to. Do O's spring training games get broadcasted anymore? (aside from what may be shown on ESPN/MLB Network) I remember catching them all the time on HTS as a kid.

Thanks!

-Colin
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Yes. They just haven't announced the schedule yet. - Roch

Roch,
What a shame it is to have Guthrie still in the rotation. The absolute worst starting pitcher in the A.L. Oh I know the 'homers' will not like this fact, but I don't care, I simply want winners, not "nice guys" on the mound this season. Guthrie and his agent are out of thier minds asking for asking for $3.9 million. For what, more back-to-back-to-back homeruns given up. Maybe they think that giving up the most amount of runs in the entire league last year makes Guthrie worth $3.9 mil. I don't think so.

Somethings NO is the right answer. Trade him, cut him, or bench him, I don't care, just don't give him a starting spot in the rotation just because he is a 'nice guy'......

Go O's

ROCH 73 DEGREES HERE IN BOCA. JUST HOPE YOU CAN DIG OUT BEFORE SPRING TRAINING IS OVER.

Tracy said:
I've been shoveling every couple of hours since the snow started getting heavy last night - being a dog owner has its drawbacks!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I have shoveled a path from my back door to the pine tree in the backyard, because the snow is too high for the dogs to get through it. That was way more important than something like shoveling the driveway because the dogs are gonna go out much more than I am.

I was one of the guys that didnt mind Bedard coming back, but on the other hand I wont lose sleep over it either. He would just take up a spot that would hold one of the young guys back anyway. We stil have a heck of alot of guys with promise, and we cant go by any of these guys for just one year of seasoning or less.. Matusz I think is a lock for the rotation. As long as Tillman doesnt stink it up in spring training,I think he will mae it too. Bergy the same thing because they year he had last year, whether we expected it or not, you have to stick him in there as well. JUst hope Bergy doesnt turn into another one year wonder like Rodrigo Lopez was, but I like the kid. Arietta, we have yet to seen yet but I am sure we will at some point this year. Hernandez showed falshes last year, and I know everyone likes to pick on Berken but I am not judging anyone on just one year. He isnt one of the top tier guys anyway, so in my opinion he will be in the bull pen at best. I hear alot of good things about Zach Britton, I am excited to see him move through the organization, I think hes the real deal. Patton, Erbe and lets lets forget about Chorye Spoone either. He just got married the other day, so hes settled in, now lets just hope hes healhty. Hobgood, too soon to tell, not sure if I am forgetting anyone since I am doing this off the top of my head, but we have alot of young arms with promise for sure...

I think Brummie has settled down for the moment and now praising Dave Trembley. I think minus Roch veto of my last blog (Roch RESERVES THE RIGHT TO VETO anything he wants, its' his blog) about "The mail is almost here,' regarding Brummies past, has given the man a new heart.

You are right Brummie (ex KG__) regardng the fifth spot in the rotation. It's exciting to see if Chris Tillman can fight off Berken and Hernandez in the rotation.

Roch, I do not think Troy Patton or Jake Arrieta will emerge this spring and start the season on the 25-man roster. I know you did not say it was certain, but there is always a chance due to injuries.
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What did I veto? I've been away from my laptop for a few hours. Getting to the comments now. - Roch

Two snow storms and two championships for the city of Baltimore this coming season.

I agree with Stephen, above, that the Orioles should have been more liberal with their money in dealings with Bedard. But another site suggests that he might not be ready to pitch before July/August. If that's the case, then, perhaps the right decision has been made.

Best of luck to Bedard. I wish he was healthy and playing here. Since he isn't gotta deal with what we've got. At least he isn't in Boston or New York. I think talentwise all the pitchers will be better with a little better with more rest.

Had to work until 5 yesterday. Had trouble making it home. Dented up my car. Woke up this morning with no power. Went out shoveled this morning cause there was nothing else to do. The snow on my deck was above my knees but not quite up to my waist.

Neighbor came by and said a tree fell on our sideroad (on the way to the main road) so there won't be any plows coming through anytime soon. Power is back so I can get me SOR fix. Snow sucks but I would take this over a hurricane.

Anyone know someone that raises huskies? I need a sled team.

We are just getting a little dusting down here in Hampton Roads, nothing to shovel. All packed and dying to get down to Florida and then the cruise, this winter thing is for the birds!

Roch, buy some gloves man.

Would be a great day to pop in the Big Lebowski don't you think Roch? Ahem...
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Sounds like a plan. - Roch

Does anybody see turning Tillman or Hernandez into the closer possibly? I like Mike Gonzalez but I think you could use him and johnson in the setup role. They have a pretty decent lineup but like always it will depend on the pitching and injuries.

Hey Roch, Now that my dog's trips to the bathroom have been stabilized, I have time to look around a bit and found a little news from Japanese Baseball. The lead on the story is that Hisanori Takahashi has left Japan, headed for the United States, claiming to have minor league offeers from the Red Sox, Giants, Padres and Dodgers. He told reporters in Japan that he had declined offers from the Mets and Orioles.

My dog barks to go out and loves sticking his nose in the snow, looks at me mumbling with the shovel with pity. Dogs really do have a sarcastic side.
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Can you please point me to the article? I couldn't find it. Thanks. - Roch

Roch, Thanks for your info re Orioles and free agent starters. I have a follow-up question about that.

Okay, I understand from what you write that the O's don't appear to have an interest in anyone now that Bedard is gone, but what I'd like to know--if you have any insight on this--is why that is. Why fixate on Bedard as if he's the only starter of any value out there.

I mean we're talking here about what was apparently a serious interest in Erik, as though getting him would be a real plus for the team, but now all of a sudden no interest in any other starter as being able to potentially help the O's.

Clearly, there are a number of pitchers still available who have similar skillsets to Bedard's, but we're to believe that the O's have zero interest in any of them? That just doesn't make any sense to me. Your help in this matter would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
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I really wish I had an answer, but I don't. He figured to be one guy with interest in signing here, and someone they thought would be ready to pitch at a reasonable time. And he wasn't looking for Ben Sheets money. - Roch

orange crayon jesus (concerning a post of yours on the "Where Markakis Hits" thread) - Bravo for a nicely thought-out response on the Chad Bradford salary dump (well, it was a tad prolix; not that there's any thing wrong with prolix, if I do say so myself - LOL). I really enjoyed it (The "titanic" bullpen quip was priceless.)

And you've actually won me over to your position...at least to a degree.

First, though, you went off on a long digression about Flanny's bullpen boondoggle I'd like to address. As I've mentioned before, I don't think overall Flanny was all that bad in the front office. He was inexperienced, yes, and in over his head a bit, but he still made some pretty good move along with the clunkers. Not great by any means, but there may have been potential there.

His multi-year, mega-buck reliever signings definitely fall into the clunker column. You opine that he somehow though those signings were going to make the Orioles a contender. I can't belive he was that naïve, but you never know. Certainly he had to have known that those signings weren't enough by themselves to get the Birds back in business.

I think his biggest mistake in the signings (aside from the ridiculous terms) is that he was throwing all that money at relievers, when the O's desperately needed starting pitching.

Someone had to have side-tracked his mind on this, because, otherwise, how on earth can an accomplished big league starter like Mike not know that you can't have bullpen stability without rotation stability--dependable starters who can be counted on to go deep into games, thus keeping the relievers fresh. (For the record, the Oriole rotation for Baez, Bradford and Walker's first year in Baltimore in 2007 was Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Jeremy Guthrie, Steve Trachsel and Brian Burres.)

Surely, Flanny knows this like he knows the back of his hand, yet somehow he did something so imprudent that it stood that bit of Baseball Management 101 on its head. How, is anybody's guess. No doubt, in part, he was hoping that Bedard and D-Cab would blossom (he was half right on that score), but beyond that he couldn't have expected too much from that rotation. Strange that all that money was lavished on the "big three," the only significant rotation signing was Trachsel, who made $3M that year (Guthrie got an insignificant $380K).

In any case, the real question at hand isn't Flanny's fiasco, but how MacPhail cleaned up the mess. Actually, the O's tried to get something out of Walker and Baez with mixed results: While Jamie was clearly done as a pitcher, providing fuel for the "rocket ships" launched against him, bringing about his early season release, Baez had something of a bounce-back year in '09, though the O's couldn't find a taker.

As for Bradford, you maintain that Andy did all he could reasonably do under the circumstances, which was commit to a salary dump and recoup some money for a decent player in the draft. Okay, at least on one level that makes sense as it follows the MacPhail philosophy about the need to develop a quality farm system. No complaint from me on that point.

However, I do have a problem in the sense that even given the above, what's the all-pressing need to dump Chad's salary? Even if I grant that he was overpaid by Flanny, you concede that he was a good pitcher. So we both agree that in Chad Bradford the O's have one part of the bullpen puzzle solved, though at an inflated cost.

Where our difference of opinion has come is whether he's worth retaining or not. Your position (aligned with MacPhail's) is that the O's need to look to the future and start rebuilding. Now, I don't necessarily disagree with on that point, but I do question whether jettisoning Chad's contract was really all that necessary to move ahead.

It's not like the O's had some bloated, Cashmanesque payroll that they had to cut at all costs. It's not like they couldn't afford to keep him on the books. Remember, here's a team that made a pretty sizeable chunk of change as a "lowball" offer to Mark Teixeira a year ago. Retaining Bradford wasn't going to break the bank by any stretch of the imagination nor would it have precluded them from paying out for a decent draft pick. So let's put that myth to bed, because as long as we hang on to it, the longer we buy into the justification of the salary dump.

Now, might Andy MacPhail have in a position where he might not have had a choice? It's possible that Peter Angelos demanded that he make some cuts? Sure, but I kind of doubt it, though, because from Day One of the MacPhail Era it was understood that Andy has had next to cart blanche as to how he shape the team. Granted, the amount of money Peter A. will throw into the payroll is finite, but the spending limits are fairly broad (e.g., Teixeira) when he wants them to be.

Most of what we both write here is speculative, of course, because we aren't privy to the O's behind-the-scenes machinations. It could very well be that MacPhail's motive was simply a sensible one for a newly hired CEO and that's to do something that runs counter to what the previous regime was doing, in this case actually undoing something.

Short version: Mr. A., Here's a savings of $5M I've immediately secured for you to negate some of the last, not-so-lamented regime's profligate spending. To which Angelos relies: "Well done, lad." So, a very good way to start a professional relationship.

As to whether MacPhail made the right move, ojc, it all really depends on whether the Orioles really need to recoup that money or not. The O's bullpen was abysmal last season without Bradford and it would have been absymal with him, just less so, but again that goes back to the rotation issues as well as the staff injuries. (I understand his own injury renders this moot, but I'm just thinking along the lines of how his bullpen slot would have been viewed prior to the salary dump.)

It's either the O's retain Chad's services at the inflated price, willing to absorb the added expense, while knowing they'll have a dependable reliever for the next season-and-a-half or cut him loose and go after a cheaper, but perhaps unproven and/or less reliable replacement. The O's chose to go the latter route; I'm still not sure was the better right decision, but it really hasn't hurt them much, either.

In the final analysis it's perhaps something of a wash, for had they not traded him they would have had yet another sore-armed pitcher on the DL taking up a roster spot.

The other aspect of this is the question as to the return--or lack thereof (for the 251th time, who/what did we get in return?)--in the deal to Tampa Bay. You seem to argue that it's unreasonable to think that the O's should have gotten anything in return. You wrote:

"So, Ken, why do you think Andy should have been able to get a player in return for Chad in addition to dumping his contract? Do you think other teams were offering to take on $5 million in salary for a year and a half of middle relief and also offer a prospect? If they were, why would Andy have turned them down? And, furthermore, why don’t you think $5 million is worth saving?..."

Well, if Andy was content to just dump the salary, then looking for other teams willing to throw in a prospect wouldn't have been important. Dump means dump; clear the roster spot and move on.

Now, for all we know maybe he did attempt to get a return, but was rebuffed. We just don't have that information. Again, we're just spinning out possible scenarios here, but I'm inclined to think he just didn't make much effort to get anything, and here's why.

Let's not forget something about Andy MacPhail, ojc. The man is a shrewd barginner, who's adept at getting maximum return (see Bedard and Tejada deals). On top of that, he was in a seller's market at the time he dealt with the Rays, as there were any number of playoff contenders looking to deal for that one player who could give them the edge propelling them into the playoffs. So, right from the top he has the upper hand.

Now the $5M sticker price for Chad was pretty steep, no doubt, but still, the Rays were getting a solid player, someone who could help push the team into the postseason. Had Bradford's salary been in the normal range I think the Orioles could have gotten an above average mid-minors player for him. With the inflated price, I'd think they still could have gotten an average low-level propect, had MacPhail wanted to press the issue.

But, again, I'm speaking without some key knowledge that could totally change the way I'd view this. I don't think there's a lot more to be said about the Bradford deal. I hope he's able to make a comeback with some one.

Meanwhile, we're getting close to the day when pitchers and catchers get to Sarasota. That's always my first day of spring, even sitting up here in the snow. And this year it looks like maybe there's going to reason for guarded optimism concerning the Orioles. This is the most pumped I've been about their chances in years. I'm not going overboard in my expectations, but I do think the 2010 edition should be the best we've seen in quite some time.

Oh, and thanks for the Cot's Baseball Contract link, which has fascinating and unusual info (I mean where else would one go to find out that Eric Gagne's 2007 contract had a perk promising him hotel suites on road?). Good stuff.

Roch-

I get what he is saying, but I still thionk the smart thing is to let Hernandez develop his stuff in the bullpen. He has nasty stuff. I wonder if he couldn't develop into our version of Mo Rivera.

Hey Roch I had a question regarding Tony Butler. He was apart of the bedard trade and I was curious of his status? Is he still apart of the system and has a future with the o's? Stay warm and have a good weekend!
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Yes. He's just got to stay healthy. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. - Roch

Ken - "...there are a number of pitchers still available who have similar skill sets to Bedard's..." Really? I just checked the Hot Stove Tracker on MLB.com for unsigned free agent starting pitchers. It listed 21 guys. I won't name them all here, but the lefties were Shawn Estes, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, Randy Johnson (retired), Noah Lowry, Eric Milton and Jarrod Washburn.

That last one's the only guy I would consider (maybe Lowry) but I wouldn't say either have the same skillset as Bedard. Nor do I think either are better than what we've already got.

The righties on that list weren't any better, with the possible exception of Pedro Martinez. But I don't think he really fits in the O's plans.

I can certainly see why the O's have no further interest in persuing any other free agent starter. Good move Andy!

i can't understand why we wouldn't want to pickup another veteran pitcher.it really souunds like they want tillman in the minors.there are a few out there i think we can pickup cheaply since it is getting closer to st.

Hey Roch,

My dog scared the polar bear away for you! Haha

http://phramed.wordpress.com/2010/02/06/who-let-the-dogs-out-middle-river-262010/

Just got finished reading Ken's book. Wow. I thought I wrote long posts.

Didn't we get first baseman Rhyne Hughes from Tampa in that Bradford deal?

.279, 25 HR in 512 ABs between Montgomery (Tampa's AA affiliate), Durham and Norfolk. 26 years old if I did my math right.

While Brandon Snyder seems to be the top prospect at 1B, Hughes' number don't seem so to be so bad. Roch, what's the FO/DT think of Hughes?
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Hughes came in the Zaun deal. They like his power potential. He's been told that he might be taking fly balls in left in spring training. - Roch

You never realize whats gonna be important to retain until your faced with that situation. This is the most snow Ive ever seen. I was in the Marines for a handful of years and now own my own bread business. For some unknown reason I decided that I would give the roads a try this morning and try to hit some stops up. It was 3 am and it was coming down but I could see and drive, until I hit a few roads that hadnt even been salted yet. Yeah, salted yet on major roads. I saw a salt truck actuall flipped over, and thats when I decided my day was over, only it wasnt.

I got stuck 3 times in my box truck, with the 3rd time being the charms and the indicator, that I will never EVER go out in this crap again to deliver. I was stuck for 3 and half hours today. 2 tow trucks got stuck trying to dig me out AND I was pinned in the truck - couldnt open the door to get out and help them, help me.

But in my truck was water, a military blanket and I was clothed with lighter material that helps keep you warmer. This is the kind of things that you learn in the Marines. Cold weather training. IF only I had remembered something else I learned out there - Trust your instincts. My instinct told me it wasnt worth it to go out there and I was right but learned the hard way but at least I didnt suffer from hypothermia or anything else like that.

Thought my story might brigthen some peoples day, who are miserable with all this snow that came down.

Roch,

I'll keep you up to date on your call-in to my radio show. If campus is closed on Monday, then talk shows are off, as well.

Luke

Of course he was at your door, Roch. The suspense was probably killing him and he couldn't "bear" to wait any longer...
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You didn't.... Yes, you did. - Roch

Ken: I think everyone's sick of our discussion about Chad Bradford, so I'll call it quits. But it's been fun, thanks!

Hal from BelAir: Actually that "vaccinated with a phonograph needle" line goes back to Groucho Marx. I did have Night in the Ruts, though, which was a record about as clever as its title (not to mention its cover: rock stars as coal miners). After Wings it was a long way down.

I promised I’d stop slamming the Tejada deal, but Miggy's GIDP's continue to get lots of press here, which I feel partly responsible for. In defending myself, let me say I only mentioned his GIDP totals in the context of several other traits I consider much worse. Maybe now I can help put this subject out of its misery with a little Q&A:

Q: Does Miguel actually hit into a lot of double plays?

A: YES. He has led the majors four of the last six years. Miggy has clearly established his excellence at grounding into double plays.

Q: But doesn’t he simply have more OPPORTUNITIES to hit into double plays?

A: NO. He plays every game and has the best hitters batting ahead of him, so he does indeed have lots of opportunities, but his RATE of hitting into double plays is also very high. It’s the ol’ double (play) whammy: He gets lots of chances and makes the most of them.

Q: Why is Miggy’s rate so high?

A: He makes good contact, which means he doesn’t strike out much, which means he puts the ball in play a lot. And, questions about his hustle aside, he’s slowing down with age: His GIDP rate the last six years is double what it was his first six years.

Q: Isn’t making contact a good thing?

A: YES. But another reason he puts the ball in play a lot is that he never walks. For those keeping score at home, being slow and having lousy plate discipline are NOT good things.

Q: Okay, but leading the league in GIDP is at least a sign that he’s a decent hitter, right?

A: USUALLY, but if you had to design a player who would hit into a lot of double plays without being particularly good, he’d look a lot like Miguel: high batting average, never walks, doesn’t strike out much, doesn’t hit many homers, plays every day, hits in the middle of a weak order, and isn’t very fast.

Q: So why is everyone picking on Miggy for his GIDPs?

A: We’re not picking on him for it; it’s not a moral failing or anything, or a sign that he’s a bad hitter. It’s simply a factor that affects his value.

Q: How much does it affect his value?

A: Not all that much, compared to other things, but not insignificant. According to CHONE, Miggy’s GIDP rate cost his team .4 WAR this year, which is less than half a win. In contrast, his poor defense at shortstop last year cost him 2.2 WAR, more than two wins.

Q: So if it’s not that big a deal, why have we devoted so much air time to this issue?

A: Because those of us who thought signing Miggy was a dumb move anticipate having to curse his name 30 times this year for killing a rally with a double play, at least half of them because he swung at ball four. And because it’s February and there’s two feet of snow outside.

SoBoHoBoS - Well, after reflecting about it a bit more, Bedard's skillset is really kind of nebulous at the moment, isn't it? After all, he's coming back from major shoulder surgery, which always puts some real doubt in the equation.

Will he ever be 100% again? The odds are against it, though even if he can get back to, say, 80% of what he was, that wouldn't be bad. So much uncertainty when labrum surgery is involved and the best expectations are always guarded. There's a famous 2004 quote from Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll (cited in the linked article below about Bedard) that: "If pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they'd be destroyed."

Sure, that's overstating things a bit as Roger Clemens successfully came back, but he's really an exception. Most hurlers end up shadows of their former selves. Which is why Bedard's gotten such a relatively small contract with Seattle (it bumps way up if a list of incentives are met, but "only" $1.5M is guaranteed); the Mariners know that signing him is a big risk, but one with potentially huge reward if it pans out.

In any case, if we want to talk about best-case scenario for Erik bouncing back, then, yes, you're absolutely right, there are very few unsigned free agent pitchers with the same skillset that he has. I wasn't just thinking lefties. Here are the ones remaining I'd put at or close to his level (a short list even including righties):

Pedro Martinez - He proved MacPhail wrong, who didn't think he was good enough to pitch for the Orioles; instead, he was good enough to pitch for the NL Champions. No, not the Pedro of old, but plenty good enough to make the O's rotation and contribute.

Mark Mulder - A once-great southpaw for Oakland and St. Louis who finished second in the 2001 AL Cy Young voting. He only turns 31 in August, so he could have quite a good years left in him. The Brewers are close to signing him to a minor league contract, so he's probably gone. Why didn't the O's have any interest?

John Smoltz - Future Hall of Famer seemed to be putting it together with a few decent starts as a Cardinal when the season ended. Not as dominant as in his prime, but knows how to pitch, set up hitters. Age, injuries potential issues.

Chien-Ming Wang - Two-time 19 game winner for the Yankees. Coming back from an injury, but he's only 30. Could be a big addition for the O's.

Jarrod Washburn - Doesn't have Bedard's stuff and the least distinguished on this list, but a reasonably good left who will take the ball every fifth day and eat up some innings. Very good, if not Koji-like control.
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(Larry Stone, "Erik Bedard and his torn labrum: Can he come back?" http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/thehotstoneleague/2010981863_eric_bedard_and_his_torn_labru.html )

Thought it was interesting that Trembley referenced 12 pitchers instead of 13 several times. Not that it probably means much. Would be nice to carry an extra on the bench.

So how come we don't get: Japanese Female Knuckleballer Eri Yoshida Named Opening Night Starter

http://www.oursportscentral.com/services/releases/?id=3957165

I agree with Brummie - 5th starter should be the storyline of ST (although I don't agree that DT had to turn over a new leaf, but the point was otherwise fundamentally sound). $15MM is too much for part of a year of Bedard, at least where this team is likely to be. I believe that this team is better, but a lot of things have to go right for this to be more than a developmental season for Matsuz, Tillman, Wieters, et al. Keep up the stellar work, Roch.

Got a 'bowl prediction for us, sir? I'll go with Colts in a nailbiter (their defense will get them a few more quality possessions than the Saints), 31-27.

Hey Roch, Sorry I couldn't get back to you promptly on your request. I crashed for awhile and was away from my computer. Here is the link on Japanese ball players.

http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/

It just seemed curious that he claimed to have a bunch of offers and had already declined the Mets and Orioles.

What will be greater?

The snowfall in centimetres? (Around 75)

Or the number of Oriole wins in 2010?

With this front office, I'll ALWAYS take the FORMER!

A warm thought on a snowy day: aren't you glad this organization has non-flash-in-the-pan prospects/early career potential break-outs like Matusz, Wieters, Jones, Reimold, Tillman, Bergeson, with Arrietta, Britton, Erbe, Hernandez, Pie, Bell, and Snyder as legitimate candidates to be good major leaguers within 3 years? Although MacPhail's volume approach did not work with last year's pitching staff or previously the SS position, it seems to be a nice strategy for prospect development. Maybe that's the lesson: fill minor leagues in volume, but don't count on major league spots being filled by "inventory," or expect career-best production. I remember many conversations with my dad about the unbelievable number of glaring holes on the Orioles roster. Not a single position had ANY competition worth writing about. Now guys like Reimold- nearly ROY- perhaps being challenged for a starting spot. We need DT to care less about people's feelings and serve as a field general for this to work, but save a few key components I do believe the Orioles can sneak up on some folks. I'll stick with the 74 win prediction this year because of the non-aggressive FO approach to CI/clean-up or adding another vet starter, but I look for 80+ the next season. However, as we learned with the Ravens' only Superbowl, sometimes great teams come earlier than expected, and the FO needs to be prepared to accept success if the young guys come roaring out of the gate. What do I mean by that? Have some positive contingency plans to add that starter or bat if the situation arises.

Roch-
i LOVE looking at career stats, on certain players.
I see that Brian Giles was just signed, I think it is SO funny that he was putting up MONSTER numbers until about 2003 or 2004. Obviously, age plays a part, but I can't help but think he had a little help there for a while.......

trembley deserves to be fired if berken ever plays for the orioles again. he is not a big league pitcher