Risk vs. Reward
There seems to be a growing number of players throughout the NFL who have experienced off-the-field issues, be it legal problems or questions about their character and ability to mesh in the locker room.
In addition to age, injury history, contract demands, and a myriad of other factors, those off-the-field issues create yet another aspect that teams have to consider when determining if a player is a good fit for their organization.
Earlier today, I asked whether you all thought that wide receiver Donte Stallworth would be worth pursuing despite the fact that he pleaded guilty to DUI manslaughter last year and spent nearly a month in jail.
Other players, such as Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall and Bills receiver Terrell Owens, have also had off-field problems, giving teams that extra factor to consider when it comes to roster decisions.
How do the Ravens view players with character issues when they're behind closed doors? Well, head coach John Harbaugh says that organization has yet to rule someone out strictly because of something that's happened outside of the white lines.
"In our conversations, I don't know if we've ever discussed a guy that we just said, 'We want no part of this guy,'" Harbaugh said in last week's "State of the Ravens" press conference. "I can't remember a guy we've talked about in the last two years that we said that about. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody, but I don't think so.
"So, it just becomes how much do you risk, how much do you take away from other opportunities to build your team for this guy? If the reward matches the risk, you kind of balance it out, and you take a shot...And most of these guys that get to the NFL, in the end, they have their issues, but they're still pretty good people. You don't get to this level without fundamentally being pretty solid, overall."
Obviously, some mistakes are more damaging than others, and teams view off-field issues on a case-by-case basis.
But Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti says that for him, the severity of the initial mistake isn't the most important factor to consider. To Bisciotti, guys with multiple strikes on their record are the ones he tends to want to stay away from.
"Certainly, the repeat problems you better avoid," Bisciotti said. "I don't think that mistakes are necessarily a sign of poor character. I think repeating mistakes is the closest sign to bad character that you can look at."
Like Harbaugh, Bisciotti says he's willing to take a chance on a guy who has made a mistake in the past. In fact, when members of the Ravens front office are discussing a player, Bisciotti often finds that he's the biggest risk-taker in the room.
"I like the fact that [members of the front office] care about our image, and they pull me back from the rail, because I'm ready to take chances on people," Bisciotti says. "I really am. I think that's kind of what life is about, and I think there are opportunities like that.
"I hope we're in a position someday where someone wants to dump a Randy Moss for a fourth-round draft pick, because I'll be in there saying, 'We've got to take a chance.' It's about what you have to lose if that person fails you. So, I think it's risk and return."
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Categories (click for archive)Dan Kolko | Ravens News |
Dan-
This is always easy. If the player is a top tier talent, its worth the risk, as long as there are not outstanding "problems" like open cases, etc.
Marshall is VERY much worth it. He is a top 3 or 4 WR, when playing, look what he did for Orton, imagine Flacco's arm with him out there.
Now, Owens, NO. He is old and not the player he once was. It isn't worth it.
Plus, when you take a risk, you have to have a plan B, so that if that player does something stupid, and gets suspended or something, then your team is only back to where you were before your team signed the problem player.
As I watch the SNOW fall yet again we can only dream of spring!
Get your shovels ready again!
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Brad,
No kidding. Enough with the snow already. Never thought I'd say this so quickly after a long 2009 season, but is it training camp yet?
-Dan
Dan-
Did you get that link? I tried to embed, but it didn't "light up" when I moved my cursor over it. It wasn't straight up Smith for Evans, it just said it was a possible destination, obviously both sides need those 2 positions.
Also, what do you think the odds of maybe the Ravens working out a deal for Peppers? That would solve some pass-rush questions. I know the money would need to be worked out, but like Bischotti eluded to, and what they ahve been talking about on the NFL Network is basically, if you have good math guys, and a well versed front office, they can work around or with pretty much any rule to get what they want or need for the most part.
If Pryce retires for instance, they would be in good shape to be able to trade for a "Peppers" type player if they so desired.
Also, to answer the question you posed a little better.
Lets say you want to take a risk on Marshall, or Bowe, or whoever.
IF Mason comes back, you can grab one of those types, as LONG as your committed to drafting a WR as well.
That way, say the player gets suspended for doing something, and that just isn't likely, but lets say he punches a ref, or gets arrested with coke or whatever, THEN, worst case, you have Mason, and a top rookie WR. You are in no worse shape than in '09. NOW, if the player shapes up, like Randy Moss seems to have the last few years, and he is a pro-bowl type? The reward if immeasurable.
Also, Moss started out great, then had a few years of humility. Humility, then a return to winning, sometimes shapes a player up because they realize the benefits.
Marshall, has had TEAM down years, NOT personal down years.
Everyone knows its Marshall that we are talking about anyway. Decosta an Hortiz have always loved him, Ozzie is nervous, but Bischotti seems to really want to take the risk now.
THey HAVE to win the SB this year. If they want to remain one of those top 3 or 4 Franchises. 2 in 10 years, makes you one of the best.
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Ryan,
I didn't see whatever link you tried sending. You might want to give it one more shot. Peppers obviously is a great player, and he apparently is now ready to leave Carolina, but I don't see him ending up here. It would take a MONSTER deal to bring Peppers to Baltimore, and we've talked about the limits of the Final Eight Plan and how they'll restrict the Ravens' movement. On top of that, the front office still wants to secure a long-term contract with Haloti Ngata, and a deal with Peppers would made Ngata's contract talks much more difficult.
-Dan
DK:
I say go out and get Stallworth. First of all, he should come relatively cheap, but has better numbers than most of the guys you discussed last week (especially YAC, which I'm obsessing on right now). If our starting WR's were Mason and Stallworth, we'd be in much better shape than we were last year right off the bat. Side note: he's an UFA, right? So that would be our only UFA that we could sign under the Final Eight? If that's the case, then that may change my opinion.
I doubt that Stallworth would cause problems with the Ravens, and if he does, cut him! We're not risking much. Let's remember that we actually need 3 receivers, not just one - so go out and get Stallworth and then either trade for one of the great receivers (Marshall or Boldwin), sign one of the RFAs, and or draft someone in the second round.
Change of topic - regarding the uncapped year. Are you aware of anything preventing teams from signing their own, non-FA, players to huge, one year revised contracts with follow-on years at lower salary levels. For example, couldn't the Ravens revise Ngata's contract to pay him $30 million next year and then a few million a year for 5 years after 2010? That would reward the player and still keep salary levels in check in case the cap comes back (which it likely will). Of course injury or off-field issues would be the big drawback to that plan...
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J-dub,
The Final Eight Plan only limits the number of scheduled UFAs that the Ravens can sign, meaning that any player that is released by their previous team (a "street free agent") is fair game. Stallworth was cut by the Browns, so he falls into that category. As for your other question, yes, it's my understanding that teams can use the uncapped year to their benefit in terms of restructuring contracts. They might not take it to the extreme of giving a guy $30 mil for a single season, but I would expect the Ravens to try to front-load contracts so the will be less affected by them when the cap returns.
-Dan