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If the alternative is watching Berken, Hill or Eaton pitch every fifth day then I'm not sure how bad Tillman would have to be to not be in the rotation.

I think he will be fine, just needs to have his fastball move some and maybe develop a 4th pitch but he obviously has big league stuff without question.

dear steve i think tillman needs to start in this rotation because we can not back up anybody at the miner level like you said the orioles did score him any runs now that we have miggie back and atkins if healthy because he was also hurt a lot last year. tillman could win 12 games for us i think that is a very good stat danny.

While there may be some concerns about Tillman, for a change we have other quality arms to replace him with if he has to be sent down to AAA (Arrieta/Hernandez & maybe Erbe later in the year).

Steve,

I always thought Tillman would need to be eased in through bullpen service. The spot starter, 2-3 inning route was much more appropriate for Tillman. The first time I saw him was I believe in the AAA all-star game. He was pounding the heart of the plate and getting hit, not tagged. I have nothing to base this on, but my gut tells me that Tillman could turn out to be the next Hayden Penn. Not trying to compare them personally, but I think Tillman has great stuff but tends to leave it out on the plate and is subject to getting hit hard. Ease the kid. Dont necessarily give him a spot in the O's rotation at the beginning of the season. Make Andy and Dave not be able to exclude him based on his performance.
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Max, I really think this guy is so much better than Penn was, despite all the hype about Penn. Now that he has been in the rotation, he will probably stay there, is my guess, whether its Balt or Norfolk........Steve

Steve,

No real worries here. Assuming a decent spring, put him in the 5 spot and let him figure it out. Yes he is young, but even so he was much more polished than just about all of the other guys mentioned. If he struggles, put him in the pen and give Hernandez a try.
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I tend to agree with you, PV, and expect that to happen. I do expect him to break camp in the O's rotatiion. But I leave out the possibility that some of his struggles last year where telling us he may need more seasoning. His talent level makes him look ready to me........Steve

Most old schools of thoughts think 500 innings are needed in the minors before getting a chance to crack a major league roster. This was before year around training, proper dieting, greater knowledge in preservation of the body, etc...

Chris Tillman was sawing every single bat at every minor league level. Any more seasoning will not help him grow as a player. In order to grow, a player needs some adversity and push through it. I only see this on the major league level.

Also, we have to take Tillman's numbers with a grain of salt. The last two months of the season Baltimore faced a playoff team 10 times and the 2008 World Series rep 8 times. September schedule was not kind to the Orioles.

Tillman is our future and he stays. He should have a rotation spot unless someone else really breaks thru and earns one. And that would mean he showed regression from last year which ain't gonna happen. The one on the hot seat should be Guthrie. He needs to step it up or we should ship him out.

Tillman remains in general a higher rated prospect than Matusz, because of his youth, velocity, and the projection that as his frame fills out some, he will have more long term durability. Matusz is clearly the more accomplished pitcher, and may well have a more successful career. That the O's have two young pitchers who require an "argument" over who will be better is truly a blessing for the organization.

I think the O's are fully prepared to open the season with Millwood/Guthrie/Bergesen/Matusz/Tillman as there rotation, but if any of the three young guys were to really struggle in the spring, they would very likely find themselves in Norfolk's rotation to start the year and get themselves back on track. I hope they all rightfully earn spots on the opening day roster, but I also don't think any of them will be developmentally delayed if they needed a few additional innings in AAA.

Clearly based on the way each of the three were pitching when their respective season's ended, Tillman seems the most likely candidate to spend time in AAA, but if pitching were that easy to predict, baseball would be a lot easier game to play.

Can't wait for spring training to start, so we can start to see these guys in action!

Let's face it, as much improved as we should be this year, our eyes really have to be on 2011. Will it benefit us better in 2011 if Tillman gets work in AAA for a few months, or will it benefit us better if he pitches a full season up here and gets his lumps in on occasion?

Now that's a tough question... but I think it would benefit us to keep him up here. In theory Millwood and Guthrie are going to average 6-7 IP a game, and Matusz and Bergesen certainly could too (probably will, if you ask me). That means our bullpen is going to be more rested and we can afford to have a #5 starter who is learning at this level. If he struggles and gives you a 4-5 inning start one out of every three times out there then so what? Our bullpen should be rested this year, in theory.

I think we can afford to have him learn more at this stage. He certainly has the stuff, and Kranitz is the guy that you want him to learn from. Let's let it happen.

Steve, I think Tillman will be fine. However, I do think he needs to develop a fourth pitch. There's word that he's working on developing a cutter, which I think would be an immense help.

At the major league level, if all you have is a straight fastball, a 12-6 curve, and a change, guys can just look fastball and ignore the other two, especially if it's lacking movement, which it was. Now I'm willing to bet his fastball has some more movement on it this time around since he was probably wearing down by the time he got called up, but I think something like a cutter or a two-seamer is really going to make him legit in the major leagues. Maybe he can hide the ball a little better, too, which only comes with experience. He's clearly got talent and he's only going to grow into his body more. That curve is also probably the second best curve on the starting rotation after Matusz.

...I've drunk too much of the O's KoolAid in the past regarding starting pitching prospects. I once believed that Rocky Coppinger was the next Nolan Ryan/Roger Clemens dominate righthander because he was from Texas and the list goes on and on and on... Odds are the O's will just get lucky eventually with the hype equalling performance.

A young pitcher with little Major League experience who dominated in the minors. Unless he struggles heavily in ST, I say you he's the fifth starter.

What have they got to lose? His confidence? Sure, it could happen. I don't think it will though. I think you break his confidence more if you start him in AAA. He dominated there and struggled at the big league level probably from pitching too many innings (IMO of course). Being sent back down might put more pressure on him when he gets called back up. And we know he'll get called up if he starts the year in the minors.

Give him a shot, we're not supposed to be contending this year, why delay the inevitable?

I think its WAY too early to be making these broad brush characterizations for either Matusz or Tillman. When you look at the top offensive teams both pitch ed against (NYY, LAA, TB, MIN) you can cut these stats:

ERA: Player A = 3.94, Player B = 4.70

WHIP: Player A = 1.48, Player B = 1.57

BA: Player A = 0.298, Player B = 0.309

... so in the end things are very comparable, and what really needs to happen is for Tillman to cut down the HR balls. and by the way Tillman = Player A.
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Interesting, good stuff.......Steve

The bottom line to me is that we clearly do not have five starting pitchers better than Tillman, even with his relative lack of experience. We may not even have four. Millwood and Guthrie are better based on experience (not stuff) and Matusz is a freak. Is Bergeson better than Tillman this year? I think we have to wait and see. Even if he is, that makes Tillman the 5th best starter in our system. He will take his lumps in some starts, but I say we let him learn at the major league level. He won't learn how to get the Yankees and Red Sox out in Norfolk.

What concerned me last September about Tillman was his velocity. He was barely cracking 90 on the gun in some of his starts. Was it fatigue from lack of proper conditioning (and career high in innings) or something more ominous? I know for one of the starts, he said he just couldn't get loose. If may have also caused his fastball to be flat. If his fastball is back into the mid 90's by the end of spring training (hopefully with more movement on it), there is no reason to believe he won't show great improvement over last year.
What's your take?
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That to me was most likely the innings load, plus it's they are tougher innings in the ML's than at AAA........Steve

you say tillman is no slouch. don't sell him short. he's quite a slouch. i'm kidding. he needs to go out every 5th day for the orioles and pitch and gain experience and with success he'll build confidence.
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"Don't sell yourself short judge, you're a tremendous slouch."

I think of that line (from Caddyshack) every time I see the word slouch......Steve

I think alot of people's concerns stem from the sucess of Brian Matusz. People saw him come in and be consistant and successful right away. I think fans have expected the same thing from Tillman. Every prospect is different and all will mature and peak at different times. I think we may all be guilty of trying to rush these prospects into stardom, before they have earned it. Tillman impressed me last year, and I think we can all expect a much more solid performance from the Orioles rotation this coming year.
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You just can't expect too many, if any, to duplicate Matusz, getting to the Majors in just over 100 IP. Of course, also remember, Tillman was taken out of HS and Matusz was drafted after three years at San Diego. He was said to be very polished when the O's got him and that sure proved correct........Steve

Tillmans should be, with no doubt in my mind, in this starting rotation. He really comes off as a guy who, imo, will get better with major league experience and not being demoted to the minors to 'work on things'.

He will become a solid #1 and an even better #2. Let the kid pitch.

The key point to remember is that Tillman was pitching in August and September for a depleted and woeful Orioles team in the midst of another free fall. Jones was gone for a lot of his starts and perhaps Reimhold also although I'm not sure if Chris was shut down in September before Nolan Achilles injury forced his year to be ended. Pie was also out and we were scrambling for outfielders as I remember. Scoring only two runs puts a lot of pressure on any young pitcher, especially in the AL East. Conversely, scoring more runs would have probably resulted in fewer losses and perhaps more wins....or at least more no decisions. Look at the ERAs of some Yankee and Red Sox pitchers. They don't exactly dazzle you, but they get great run support which overcomes some bad outings.

Frankly, I think way too much is made over hurting a guy's psyche. I believe Tillman's tough enough to deal with adversity. However, I also believe he needs more movement on his fastball and perhaps another pitch. As with all of the Orioles starting pitchers, he needs to throw strikes, get ahead of the hitters and keep his pitch count down so he can stay in games longer and not wear down late in the season.

People are only questioning Tillman because we have other options. If this were last year, Tillman would have been our solid 3 starter and maybe 2 starter. This year we have Hernandez, Arrieta & Patton who could push Tillman or even Guthrie out of the rotation if they start off slow.

Better talent : Tillman

Better pitcher : Matusz

Steve...nice downside posting. Sure, we should be concerned about the success of all the players. You could have written this same article about any player on the team and proposed reasons to be concerned. High quality major league prospects have had success at all levels of baseball. Tillman/Matusz/Bergy have experienced sufficient success at lower levels of baseball, both qualitatively and quantitively. Numbers innings you posted infer that there is a cause and effect relationship between the amount of innings pitched in the minors and the success at the major league level. There isn't. Am I concerned about Tillman, yes. I have concerns about the other starters too. Why focus your concerns on one guy and choose to write about him exclusively?
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For many reasons. He is the biggest "question" mark among the five heading to camp and there has been much discussion about him this year. I am not predicting Tillman's failure, far from it, just talking about a player and giving the fans a chance to add their two cents. That's what we do here Mike.

Plus, we've been writing for months since last season ended, many days without a news item on the front burner. Yesterday I wrote about Jones, last week about Brandon Snyder and Vito Frabizio of the minor leagues. We cover a lot of ground here........Steve

I heard that Kranitz has been helping Tillman develop a fourth pitch: a cutter. If he can develop that pitch as well as better command he could become a very very good pitcher someday. Only time will tell, but I truly believe that as of now the sky is the limit with Tillman. He has already dominated every level of the minors, so I think it's time to let him learn how to pitch at the major-league level unless he shows a major step backward in Spring Training.
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I must say, after reading many articles and some message board posts about Tillman at various times this winter, the posters on this particular thread seem to be very positive about him. I am too. I'm mildly suprised only because I've seen so many posting concerns about Tillman. That is one reason I pointed out if there is one thing we should not question about him, it's his talent level.......Steve

No, Chris will be fine. Nothing more to say.

He's better than... Rich Hill, Adam Eaton, Bruce Chen, Daniel Cabrera, Rodrigo Lopez, Chris Waters, Brian Buress, Steve Trachsel, Radhames Liz, Garrett Olson, Jaret Wright, Jim Brower, Hayden Penn, Russ Ortiz, Eric Dubose or Kris Benson.... to name a few that come to mind.

Steve we should be concerned about Tillman.

Dave Cameron from Fangraphs posted an article after his first two starts:

"One of the concerns I had about Tillman when he was coming up through the lower minors with Seattle was how often he pitched up in the strike zone with his fastball. It helped him rack up a good amount of strikeouts, but also spelled danger for his future home run rates when he started facing guys strong enough to put those pitches in the seats."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/tillmans-flyballs

If you look at the rest of that article you see how Tillman has concentrated on pitching up in the zone to get hitters out and apparently has done this throughout his minor league career. He found out quickly that ML hitters feast on fastballs up in the zone and gave up a ton of HRs because of it.

Now the question is with the cutter that he's developing, and with supposed increase in velocity due to better conditioning, will he be able to adjust to drop that HR rate and still be able to be an effective ML pitcher?

One could argue it might be better to trade him to a team that has a park that would fit his style better like Detroit or San Diego for example, for a piece that we could use and would better fit the surroundings of Oriole Park.

He might not be more than a #4 starter for the Orioles, and could be a TOR for somebody with a larger park.
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The home run numbers were not good for him in the Majors (15 in 65 IP) after giving up just five in 97 IP at AAA. We'll see on that. I think he can adjust and right now am not too alarmed by it, but it is something to watch and track, no doubt.......Steve

I also remember one game against the Blue Jays where he clearly was missing some heat on his fastball and yet he still found a way to get through 6 innings (I think he was hurt) and keep the game close. After watching that game I felt pretty confident that he will one day be successful on this level, I think the huge rise in ERA in September was mostly due to fatigue.

Tillman is 21 years old. He will be fine when he grows up. Relax and enjoy watching him grow up

Tillman needs to be learning, and growing in the Majors. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, and being sent back to AAA could affect his confidence level. Chris was regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball for a reason and his talent level is huge. I think that Tillman needs to put some movement on that straight arrow fastball/develop a forth pitch(cutter or 2-seamer would really help), continue improving that change-up, and perfect the curveball. Last season, Tillman showed me great poise and potential. This season, I expect to see some good results, and better performences. Tillman is still very young at 21 so he has a good amount of time to prove himself as a ML-caliber pitcher. In the future, Matusz, and Tillman could make a great 1-2 punch. One step at a time.

P.S. Steve, I called AJ "The Truth" because I heard posters on Roch's blog call Jones by that nickname. "Bazooka Jones" is a better nickname though.

Doesn't Tillman look a whole lot like Zack Greinke?

Compare Tillman's picture (on this post) to Greinke's:
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2008/0417/fantasy_g_zgreinke_200.jpg

http://i46.photobucket.com/albums/f117/thetolerableone/GreinkeSMI2.jpg

Wouldn't that be nice.

Dave B - that's an impressive list...or should I say, an impressive display of your memory...its actually a quite ugly list of so-called "next great pitchers". The only one I can add is Matt Riley.

Steve - maybe the reason posters here seem to be so much more positive about Tillman is that these are the real O's fans. Maybe the posters on the other blogs are just looking at the bald-face numbers. If you look at those, it appears that Matusz "outpitched" Tillman. Those who have acutally watched Tillman's starts know the type of talent this guy has and can easily see his "high ceiling", as "they" say.

John in NYC (and others) - nicely stated.

While its fun to project a 5-man rotation, I'm sure that injuries and ineffectiveness will force management's hand and we'll see a number of guys roll through the starting rotation. Personally, I'd like to see Arrieta and Patton get extended look-sees. Berken and Hernandez will probably get their share of starts. 26-year old Chris Lambert showed he's got some game with 134 IP in Norfolk allowing only 134 hits and 31 walks while striking out 113. Maybe he'll get a few starts. While Chris Waters doesn't excite me all that much, he's proven to be a reasonable fill-in.

Isn't it nice to know that another wave of arms is growing down on the farms? Erbe, Bascom, Britton, Spoone, Lebron, Gamboa, Hobgood...
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I think Chris Waters is a goner, signed minor lg deal with Milwaukee. The rest are all there, though. And we do have some real sharp posters, for which I am very thankful.......Steve

Oriolesfan122, here's the updated nickname list:

If I didn't know what it was I created one or suggested a good guess with a question mark:

Brian Roberts: "B-Rob"
Miguel Tejada: "Miggy", "La Gua Gua (because he drives everybody home)", "The Bus"
Ty Wigginton: "Wiggy"
Nick Markakis: "Kakes", "Osama?"
Adam Jones: "Jonesy", "AJ", "The Truth", "Bazooka"
Matt Wieters: "Wheat", "Wheaties?"
Nolan Reimold: "Reim-Time", "Reimy?", "The Reimold Express?"
Cesar Izturis: "Izzy"
Luke Scott: "Luuuuuuuuuke", "Some Dude", "Paul Bunyon"
Garrett Atkins: "Batkins," "Gatkins," "Atkins Diet", "Gare?"; pronounced Gair.
Felix Pie: "Pie", "The Cat?"
Brad Bergesen: "Berg", "The Natural"
Brian Matusz: "Tooz?"
Jeremy Guthrie: "Genghis Khan?", "Samurai?"
Kevin Millwood: "Badger?", "Sedate?", "Nonchalant?"
Koji Uehara: "Kojeeyou?"
Mike Gonzalez: "Gonzo"
Jim Johnson: "JJ", "Jimmy-J"
Cla Meredith: "The Claw", "Pre-Mere?" "Claim?"
Chris Tillman: "T-man?"
David Hernandez: "Dave?"
Matt Albers: "Fat Albert?" joking.. "Matters"
**Erik Bedard: "The Interview", "Chafe?"

If I missed some let me know.. The newbies need initiated.

Steve, Thanks for the informative article. I agree with you from what I have seen from afar this kid has a lot of upside. The O's probably did rush him faster than they wanted I'm assuming. I believe unless his fastball gets more movement he will eventually end up in the bullpen. If they signed Bedard then they would have a back-up plan (but who knows for real when he will be ready?). 126 innings the year prior? My bigger concern is the overall way baseball has changed with starting pitchers (majors and minors) with the amount of innings they pitch in a season. It used to be (as recently as the 70's and 80's) that pitchers would get many more innings (typically well over 200 innings) and their seemed to be less pitching type injuries. It makes common sense that the more you use something the stronger it becomes. Nolan Ryan is changing this modern day pitching philosophy in Texas where he is saying his starters better go into the 7th and 8th innings on a regular basis. Your thoughts?
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I don't think you will ever see it return to yesteryear when pitchers in a four-man rotation could throw 300 innings and 15-20 complete games. Teams get spooked because there are so many pitching injuries. That said, that's why clubs love innings eaters, even if they aren't real talented pitchers. It just helps to have someone, hopefully several pitchers, that can get the 7th or 8th with some regularity........Steve

Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, Erbe, Hernandez...There is going to be bullpen time for most of them. It's a nice lineup for MLB pitchers, most of those guys would be the top pitching prospects for most teams. We still have other prospects in the system, spoone, lebron, perez, berken, etc. 10 good pitching prospects, gotta love it.

Steve,
I have a feeling that we may see Patton as one of the starters. He dominated at Bowie. Patton did tire after being promoted to AAA, but that was may a result of his surgery in 2008. He has more experince than most of the young pitchers. He may be ready to step up if any of the others have problems.

Considering that Tillman is the youngest pitcher going into the rotation, of course there would be some questions about him regarding his lack of experience. I don't know about you, but being 21 years old and expected to earn a spot in the rotation..that sure spells a lot of pressure on a kid with less experience, don't you think? Assuming he has a great spring, I think he will end up being on the rotation but I wouldn't be shocked if he struggles early on in the season and then regain his confidence later on in the summer. It wouldn't be a bad idea for him to spend more time in the minors, but then again he has dominated every level of competion in the minors; so I don't know if that could be benificial to him or not. Unlike all the washed up pitchers we've had in the past, the pitchers we have now are a lot better and we look forward to seeing them pitch this season and further beyond. Go O's!
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Well there is the issue of his age and his experience, almost two different things in his case. He is the youngest in the rotation yes, but with 18 starts and 97 IP at Norfolk last year, he made more Triple-A starts and has pitched more Triple-A innings than Bergesen, Berken and Hernandez........Steve

Has the 'Jim Johnson as starter' ship left port for good?? He knows how to pitch and is experienced. The proposed bevy of relievers in Sarasota should produce the 8th inning guy - Perez? Any chance he is in the starters mix? Are they missing an opportunity by relegating him to 4 innings a week???
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I think he is probably going to stay an 8th-inning guy, but you never say never. Late last year we heard that some in the organization think Johnson could be a good starter now. He never really got much of a chance in that role in the Majors before.

On the other hand, the O's rotation seems pretty set right now, plus has guys like Arrieta, Patton and Erbe soon knocking on the door. There are fewer candidates for a key role like set up guy and some say don't change what is working in that Johnson has excelled in that role. I expect him to be the 8th inning guy this year and not start at all.............Steve

Steve-

I can't believe people are worried about Tillman. Wow.
I have not read ONE scouting report that says basically "Has an Ace #1 starter ceiling, and worst case a mid-rotation workhorse for years to come."

Remember, its mostly the 2-5 that scares people, but, the O's scored 2 or less runs in what, 9 of the 11 starts?

This kid has NASTY stuff, and he will develop better in the Majors at this point. He just has to learn control, and he will be dominant.

I am harder on the O's usually than anyone. I am not worried here.

NOW, the flip side of that is, do I think he has enough of a chance of busting that I would trade him for an Adrian Gonzales? Yes. If it cost Tillman and Snyder and another 2 kids or so, I would do that.

As far as the pitchers go, Matusz, Erbe, and Britton would be the only untouchable ones at this point.

I don't think we've anything to worry about, happens to a lot of young guns on their first go-arounds.

Steve,
In Tillman's case, the talent is definitely there. However, my friend observed right after his first start that he is a fly ball pitcher. I have to wonder how great that will work out being in the friendly confines of Camden Yards. Also, his fastball is as straight as an arrow. If he gets a little movement on that fastball (maybe he could talk to Bergesen) and keep the ball down, I think he will be the top of the rotation guy we are expecting.

Steve - thanks for the note about Waters. Missed that transaction. Maybe it happened when I was vacationing. =) That makes two misktakes (counting my mis-reference to Mrs. Bradley), but who's counting?

BMS - yes, I do love the depth of our pitching prospects. Now lets start to build our hitting prospects - realizing of course, The Plan is to grow the arms and buy the bats.
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You got it and I'm sure Adam's mom was not upset at all. She is quite a fan and it's always great to hear from her......Steve

161 and 2/3rds minus 135 and 2/3rds is 26. Not 36.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tillma001chr
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Good catch, my mistake, I corrected it......Steve