The Nats' middle infield outlook
With the signing of Adam Kennedy, the Nationals' middle infield looks a lot more stable for the 2010 season than it did earlier in the week. But what about how it looks for the future?
Barring an injury or a scenario in which Ian Desmond overtakes Cristian Guzman at shortstop, the Nationals look like they will open the season with Kennedy at second and Guzman at short. Expanding that organizationally, I'd assume Desmond starts the season as the shortstop at Triple-A Syracuse, with Willie Harris, Eric Bruntlett and possibly Alberto Gonzalez as backup options. There's a possibility Desmond makes the big league club and gets at bats off the bench, but I think the Nationals would prefer to have him playing every day.
If that happens, here's where it gets interesting: Guzman is a free agent after the season, and Kennedy has a $2 million team option for next year. That means both of those guys could be trade bait late this summer (Guzman's $8 million salary would probably mean a trade would involve the Nationals eating some of his salary), or they could both be gone after this season.
Desmond could be in the majors this year, possibly starting at shortstop late this summer if Guzman falters. More likely, though, he's competing for the starting job next year, with Danny Espinosa right on his heels. The Nats like both players, but the sense I get is that Espinosa's ceiling might be a little higher, especially at the plate. They could move Desmond to second base, but they also have 2009 second-rounder Jeff Kobernus moving through the system. For all three of those guys, this is going to be an important season.
With their middle infielders, the Nats appear to be implementing a strategy that's at least a hedge against their young players underperforming in 2010 and at most a delay of those players' entrance into the everyday lineup. It also truncates the timetable between Desmond's permanent arrival to the majors and Espinosa's, meaning those two players could be in a heated battle for playing time in the future.
Now, is it possible Desmond is playing every day by the late part of the summer? Yes, especially if the Nats aren't in contention for any type of playoff spot. But most of their moves this winter have been geared at putting a respectable major-league product together for 2010, and there's less of an emphasis on awarding major-league playing time to young players before they're ready.
Middle infield depth has been an organizational problem for most of the Nats' existence in Washington, and that's becoming less of an issue as Mike Rizzo plugs holes at the top. But it does make 2010 an important year for the future of the position at the major-league level, and specifically for Desmond's, Espinosa's and possibly Kobernus' development.
One link to pass along: Byron Kerr talked to Jim Riggleman about Adam Kennedy this morning. The two worked together in 2007, when Kennedy was with the Cardinals and Riggleman was working in the St. Louis organization.
 |
Categories (click for archive)Ben Goessling | Nationals News |
The big factor mitigating any chances of trading Guzman this season is not his contract, it's his status as a 10 and 5 guy. He can't be traded without his consent. This puts the ball in Guzman's court regarding any trade. Rizzo can't pick the spot, Guzman gets to pick his own spot. And as we've seen, he can be very picky.
---------------------------------------
Correct; he is a 10 and 5 guy now. And you're right, he can be very picky. But I'm guessing if a situation arose where he was losing at-bats to Desmond here and had a chance to join a contender, he would allow a trade. If you're not getting regular playing time here, and you have a chance to jump into a playoff race, why wouldn't you go? We'll have to see how that plays out.
Ben
Ben,
Can Guzman be traded w/o his permission? Isn't he a 10/5 guy? Do you think Guzman would consent to being traded?
------------------------------------
Rich: See my last response. Guzman is a 10 and 5 guy, and he can be very particular, but if he was losing at-bats to Desmond here and had a chance to join a contender, I can't see him blocking a trade. The Nats aren't going to re-sign him, so he's got little to gain by staying, unless he's in a situation where he's getting more playing time and can increase interest on the free agent market. If that's taken out of the equation, I don't know why he'd refuse a move.
Ben
After reading fans reactions on some of the other blogs, I'm glad to finally read something that makes more sense to me. This is what I perceived it to be, fill the spots now, let the younger players get more seasoning and bang, zoom, there go the fireworks in September or 2011. It makes sense to me. Guzman and Kennedy will suffice for 2010, if they can remain healthy.
After reading fans reactions on some of the other blogs, I'm glad to finally read something that makes more sense to me. This is what I perceived it to be, fill the spots now, let the younger players get more seasoning and bang, zoom, there go the fireworks in September or 2011. It makes sense to me. Guzman and Kennedy will suffice for 2010, if they can remain healthy.
Hopefully Desmond will give them no choice but to let him play him at short if he has an outstanding spring, and Guzman shows that age and weight has overcome his abilities. I for one say trade Guzman even if you have to eat some of his salary. Let's get on with the future of this team and not try to baby Mr. Guzman.
The Kennedy signing was a very good one for the Nats. He will upgrade the the position from last year. His batting average won't hurt the team. T
This move gives Desmond time to prove himself.
Frank Rizzo gets another star.
I haven't seen anyone provide explanation or background on Shawn Estes. He's been out of baseball for 2-3 years and it seems like a real risk to provide a 37 year pitcher a spot on 40 man roster. Is he just a spring training invitee who wouldn't require a roster spot? It's tough to know what's going on with the remake of the Nats when compared to the Plan 2.0?
-----------------------------------------------
Are we on the Plan 2.0 now? I can't keep track. How does that compare to Windows 7?
Anyway, I wouldn't worry about Estes. He's on a minor-league contract, so he'll be invited to spring training, but won't be on the 40-man roster unless the Nationals select his contract, probably to put him on the major-league team. I can't see that happening, though; this is a low-risk pickup to see if the guy has anything left, or possibly just to have another veteran in camp.
Ben
Ben:
What chance do you give the Nats of resigning Dunn? Also besides their overall number #1 pick from this past draft, who is the Nats best remaining starting pitching prospect?
Frank
----------------------------------
I think they'll get a deal done. There's interest on both sides, and the Nats are making more moves with an eye toward winning now than they have since 2005. I'd expect a three-year deal or something along those lines, and I'd watch for it this spring.
As for the best pitching prospect sans Strasburg, I'd say Jordan Zimmermann, but he's not healthy right now. He would be your guy in a perfect world, though. After that, it gets tough to differentiate, but I'd go with Ross Detwiler. He started to show signs last September he's getting close to figuring it out, and he's got a sharp fastball when his mechanics are good. He's probably a No. 3 on a good team, but again, in a perfect world, the Nats will have a Strasburg-Zimmermann 1-2 before too long.
Ben
Ben: I'm with you on Estes - He's inventory for SYR as a #5SP/LHR, with long odds to break camp with WSH. I'm more interested in hearing if there is any discussion regarding a trade for one of the Giants' current stating pitchers? Lincecum's upcoming arb-hearings will be expensive - Maybe they're willing to talk about Cain or Zito?
----------------------------------------------
Not that I've heard, and I can't imagine any scenario where the Nats wind up with either of those guys. They'd never want to take on Zito's contract, which now looks like one of the worst in baseball, and the Giants have big enough payrolls to support Cain. If the Nats could get Cain, I'd imagine they'd do so in a second. But I don't see the Giants parting with a young pitcher like that, especially when they could be in the playoff race again.
Ben
First,Estes will either make the team ,retire or be released he won't be going to Syracuse at this stage of his career. Hopefully, Desmond flat out wins the job. He was much better last year in August and September than Guzman has been in several years. The ball jumps of his bat and he is a 15-20 homer per year middle infielder if he makes it . Only playing time can answer that question and I would much prefer Kennedy at 2b over Guzman who seems to have aged dramatically in the last few years.