Too soon for genuine angst
On the one hand, I'm impressed by the fervor some fans display in reacting to any Nationals' transaction, regardless of how insignificant they seem.
On the other hand, I wonder why so many want to paint a negative picture of each transaction, as if they know better than professional baseball people.
Take the recent signing of pitcher Shawn Estes to a minor league contract, reportedly worth $600,000, but as much as a million if he makes the club. One person wrote that it appeared that GM Mike Rizzo was "waving a white flag." Someone else branded Estes a steroid cheat because he was a 19-game winner back in the late '90's. There were several posts I read questioning why the club would throw money away and saying that they were scraping the bottom of the barrel.
First of all, do you really think they signed this guy without seeing him throw first? Secondly, there's very little actual risk involved. If he doesn't make the big club, he can always refuse an assignment to the minors; many veterans do just that and go home, or look for another gig in baseball. And third, it used to be that the big club had a window of opportunity to release players like that - based on how many days they'd been there - and only pay about 20% of the contract's value. I can't find anything that indicates that window has disappeared.
Look, the Nats have signed Estes, along with big league veterans Miguel Batista, Eddie Guardado, Ryan Speier, Jamie Burke, Eric Bruntlett, Pete Orr, Chris Duncan, Kevin Mench and Jerry Owens to minor league deals. Some will make the Opening Day roster. Some will go to Syracuse, and some will be released. It's how this business does business. None of these guys were signed in the hopes they'd be big difference makers. If it works out that way - bonus. If not? Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
By the way, I hope you heard Jim Riggleman on the special edition of "Wall-to-Wall Baseball" we did on MASN this past Friday. (And Jim says he reads this blog, so, Hi Jim!) I was particularly interested in his response to a question about the 2010 rotation. He said if the season started next week, his third starter, after Lannan and Marquis, would be Garrett Mock.
Mock's name has been conspicuous by its absence this offseason, In his final start of the year, against Atlanta on October 1, he went six and allowed just a single run, that on a home run. Prior to that he'd had some good starts and some awful ones, but the club liked a lot of what they saw. He'll turn 27 in late April and should be entering his prime.
The club is still talking with the agents for John Smoltz and Chien-Ming Wang, so no doors have been closed.
You might want to wait a few more weeks before really overreacting to anything.
Heck of a snowstorm though, wasn't it?
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Categories (click for archive)Phil Wood |
Phil,
I think it is fair for fans to be angry with this team. Rizzo started the off season saying he needed two proven 200 inning type starters. He failed. He said he needed to improve the middle infield defense. Defensive stats for Kennedy and Guzman each a full year older look really bad to me. He failed on Defense too.
Phil we have seen this drill for going on four years now. Go into spring training knowing you have huge holes in the team and hoping somehow Jason Simontochi, Jason Williams, Mike Basik or Kip Wells, J Tavaris group will save us from another 100 lose season. Rizzo and Stan say the right things..."that is unacceptable" but they are not willing to spend just a $10 - $15 Million more to make sure it does not happen.
Had the Nats signed a Jon Garland, Randy Wolf or J Pinero type and signed a top defensive SS or 2B like they said the would then fans would not care about Estes....but they did not do what they had to do. Rizzo did not do what he himself said he had to do. We have seen this before Phil....This team just does not have the leadership from the top to put together even a passable MLB product. Stop making excuses for them. When they win 80 games then we will know they care about fans. ================= You think Wolf's head and shoulders better than Marquis? Garland made it clear from day one he wanted to stay on the west coast. Piniero has been hot and cold through his career - he's not a top-of-the-rotation type. Your logic is that the team needs to somehow force these free agents to take their money, or overpay to the point of thumbing their nose at the players already on the ballclub. Rizzo's been GM for less than a year, but you're already pronouncing him a failure. The front office staff he put together in the off-season has been praised throughout the game, but it's not good enough for you. You know all the answers. I feel sory for you and for anyone who ever has to work for you. You'll never be happy with anyone's performance.
Phil;
I have heard you comment on this type of fan reaction numerous times over the past few years. I understand your rational however I think its unfair to think that most posters, bloggers, sports-talk callers don't think that the baseball pros know what they are doing. I think I know what they are doing and its not what the winning organizations (Yankess, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals, Angels) do on a year to year basis. Thats what has driven the "fanatics" up the wall.
At the end of 2006 when the LernerStank era began everyone focused on "The Plan". Okay we got it, build a team thru the farm system, add the pieces that you need to get to the next level. The trouble was there was nothing even rometly passable to start with. The average/casual fan didn't understand that.
Instead of ownership coming clean and saying; look this is not going to be easy, this road is long, this road is tough, please be patient. Oh and by the way our Plan doesn't include quick fixes, I'm sure lots and lots of average fans would be much more sympathetic. Now the fanatics would have been disappointed but at least they wouldn't view everything in the nagative.
Serioulsy, in 07,08 and even as late as 09 dumpster diving has been the norm. Was that because they had no choice? Probably so, however most folks are tired of the reclamation projects and the no-harm-no foul mentality in signing a Shawn Estes, Jason Simontacchi, Tim Redding, John Halama, Jerome Williams, Mike Basick, Matt LaCroix, Nook Logans, etc,etc,etc.
It might be business to you but it's not to the fan base =============== Other than Estes, every one of those other guys was a Bowden signing. It's not the same thing, and have you heard anyone say that Estes is a lock to make the team?
Phil, I'm in absolute agreement with you. I don't know why some people get so worked up on these minor league deals. Most likely none of these guys will have an impact, & if one works out, then great. I aslo liked your article on Kennedy. I liked the pickup, but did not realize his career fielding percentages were so close to Hudson's. I also thought it was interesting that some scouts said he was the better second baseman, especially considering some of the comments I was reading on other blogs. Additionally, last season's the two guys were nearly identical in every major offensive category, (avg,obp,slg, HR, RBI, & D). Kennedy had more SB, while Hudson scored more runs. Essentially, I think they made a good move by saving the $, although, originally I was hoping they offered about $5m to Hudson.
I also thought the comment on Mock being the #3 starter was interesting. Does that mean Olsen isn't healthy? I kind of thought, if he's healthy, he would be the current #3. As for Mock, he had a very good month in August, but then struggled in September, until his final outing. I will say this in his defense, that even in his struggles, he just seem to be hurt by one bad inning and then pitched well the rest of the game. With that said, I think there is still hope for him. Still,I prefer Detwiler and Stammen or even maybe Martin at this point. In my opinion, Mock needs to have a strong spring to make the rotation.
Phil,
The TV show/Wall to Wall was great. I watched most of it. It would be great if a MASN email or Nats email went out to people on their email lists letting them know it was going to be on. Also, and I know I'm always full of ideas, my MASN TV guide (you know the scrolling thing) didn't show Wall to Wall Baseball, but some Name Garceau show or something like that.
There is no question that writing stuff anonymously on a blog draws far more emotion and drama and negativity from a person that you would ever experience speaking with him or her in person. To me, it's like the relationship between when people are dreaming and when they're awake. People who are rational and even thoughtful when awake, dream themselves as screamers and tear-gushers at night. I think it's the same phenomenon; I even see it in myself sometimes.
The Kennedy pick-up is a great example. Over on the fan board on the Nats site, people are writing that it's time for Stan's "I'm glad we were number 2" statement! But how many of them knew, as you did that Kennedy had triple the career steals of Hudson? And didn't Kennedy out-hit Hudson last season? And didn't Hudson lose his job to Ronnie Belliard last year?
Posters have got to take a look at the brain trust in the Nats' front office. If Bowden's group knew a thousand times more about baseball than me, this group knows a million. If they want to take a chance on Shawn Estes, I'll support them.
KM
Hi Phil:
one of the things that amazes me in reading comments is how negative or how much of a "know it all" attitude certain posters have - it almost gets to the point that I want to read what you and Ben say and ignore the comments, but thanks for stating what has been a nagging point for me - I like where we are this year compared to last. How can you not be happy when last year we had Odalis Perez and Daniel Cabrera in our starting 5, not to mention a sieve of a bullpen and both of those areas look to be strengthened. We are not going to challenge for the pennant but we should play decently enough to be right around 75 wins. Go Nats and thanks Phil ===================== Well, Odalis was the year before, but you're right. Some people apparently believe that you can force free agent players to take your money, and when the club doesn't sign the players they want to see, it's because the team is cheap. The game doesn't work like that and never will.
Enjoys your wall to wall the other day but I had to catch it on the replay since I didn't hear about it in advance.
What you say above and about O-day/Kennedy makes alot of sense but an off season that started great has seemed to fizzle out. I guess many of us were hoping the Nats would invest some of the profits thay have been making on some non-dumpster diving starting pitching. We have Marquis and Lannan and as you said, and then 3 question marks. Seems like every year its the same story and there was hope that this year would be different.
And please not Smoltz - I hate the Braves and he is, and always will be a brave in my eyes.
"....as if they know better than professional baseball people." - Phil Wood
Agree Phil.
How dare the fans, who pay the bills, question Stan "The Plan 2.0/3.0/4.0" Kasten and the thrifty Lerners about professional baseball.
It obviously takes years of experience and knowledge of the intricacies of baseball to lose 100+ games back to back- and turn a handsome profit. Very rarely, if ever, done.
The Nats have 2 .500 pitchers at the top of the order going into Spring Training. Could Stan be going for the hat trick in 2010? Stay tuned! ...but be quiet about it.
They needed two pitchers that could lead the staff and pitch 200 innings and they needed a Middle Infielder who would vastly upgrade their defense. They got on pitcher and a below WAR defender. Rizzo failed. I like Rizzo much more than Jimbo so don't misunderstand. Rizzo is likely doing all he can....but that is because of the complete failure of Stan and Lerner to lead this team for 3 years. You get your tickets free and get paid to push the team. I pay my own way and the team has done nothing to prove they care to put a winner on the field. 2005 Phil was the last time they even tried to win games. That is too long to wait while the ownership is clearing at the top of all owners.....How do you defend that....oh yea you are paid to say it.
I did catch the Riggleman segment and enjoyed it (I was watching the Caribbean World Series before and after that). Would be great to see more such Nats coverage on MASN in the future.
Will be interesting to see what develops on the pitching front. I'm not a Braves fan, but I have to admit that I've always kinda liked Smoltz despite the fact that the majority of his career has been with them.
Phil thanks for blog.
The Nationals should be thankful that the fans still care enough to be disgusted.
Rizzo has been busy this year and he is plugging some glaring holes in this team and for that I will congratulate him. Additionally I can only guess what constraints are put on him both internally (ownership) and externally (the market). However, there is plenty of “angst” to go around for how this team is run. I will not go into specifics but being a fan that has followed baseball for over 40 years and has been a season ticket holder for both the O’s and now the Nationals I can tell when an organization is being run well. The Nationals due themselves a disservice when the make the fans believe that a Teixeira would sign with them. No topflight free agent will sign with the National as long as they are as badly run as they are now. I am actually surprised that Marquis signed with us. As for Hudson maybe he is not the player he used to be but even by the Nationals measure they were going to give him twice what they gave Kennedy. Also the Nationals played up the fact that they wanted Hudson and the Nationals players said they wanted him also. So both the Twins and the Nationals had a glaring hole in the middle infield and the Twins not a big market team felt it was worth it for their fans to take the extra 3 million dollar risk. Sure I know the Twins might be able to contend, but that is the point, isn’t it?
As for the Estes signing I see what Rizzo is trying to do and yes the Nats could use another lefthander in the pen but if this is seen as the other starting pitcher they need yes as a fan it is disconcerting. You stated that “First of all, do you really think they signed this guy without seeing him throw first?” Please remember that this team signed Daniel Cabrera last year and everyone had seen him pitch before also.
In closing I am also part of a season ticket holder group for the Capitals. When the Caps were not doing well and there attendance started to drop off Ted Leonsis invited in all the season ticket holder to a series of small meeting and ask us what we thought. Sure there were a lot of differing opinions but it let the fan base know that not only did he care he was “listening”. There is a basic trust between the owners and the fans. Fans expect owners to put a competitive team on the field, until the Nationals truly understand this distrust and angst will continue.
Phil,
Do you believe the Nationals front office did enough to make this team competitive, and why do you think so (i.e. what is your back up data to prove your point, scouts, saber, etc.)? And what do you think the record (based on the talent assembled) will be? And do you think the record will be good enough for the team based on the expectations (belief of being competitive in 2010) of the fan base? (The last question is to assess your 'chill out' post).
Thanks
Phil,
You have to excuse the fans. They were without baseball for most of their lives, so they think it's a game of quick fixes and wallet supplied championships. You and I are from a time when the bold moves the Senators made in the off season were adding Ron Kline and Elmer Valo.
It makes perfect sense to sign Estes and others like him to cheap contracts. It's worth the gamble, and one of them just might remember how he got to the bigs in the first place and give you a solid year.
Keep fighting the good fight Phil.