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Hey Rock,
I think Luke Scott could fill the 4th spot on the linup, if not Miggy.

Great article from Camden Crazies in regards to the lineup:

January 26th, 2010 | by Daniel Moroz |
With the addition of Miguel Tejada recently, it seems that the players in the 2010 starting line-up are largely set. That then leaves the issue of how best to arrange them.

As of now, here are my offensive projections for the O’s hitters (let me know how you think they will do: 2010 O’s Projections):

Matt Wieters – .287/.352/.452, with a .350 wOBA
Garrett Atkins – .263/.332/.422, with a .329 wOBA
Brian Roberts – .282/.355/.431, with a .345 wOBA
Miguel Tejada – .296/.332/.435, with a .333 wOBA
Cesar Izturis – .259/.304/.339, with a .285 wOBA
Nolan Reimold – .278/.360/.459, with a .357 wOBA
Adam Jones – .283/.339/.466, with a .347 wOBA
Nick Markakis – .297/.366/.484, with a .369 wOBA
Luke Scott – .263/.343/.477, with a .353 wOBA

First up, let’s assemble the line-up using the guidelines put forth in The Book (if you haven’t read it, you should):

“Your three best hitter should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. You fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.”

Step 1 is to figure out who the three best hitters are. Nick Markakis looks like the clear #1, with Nolan Reimold, Luke Scott, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Brian Roberts all being pretty close together thereafter.

Roberts is the one whose wOBA is tilted more towards the OBP side, so he goes first (and because he’s fast and stuff). One could concievably make the case for Reimold though, since he walks and is actually a pretty good base-runner.

Markakis has the highest OBP on the team, and isn’t as much of a home run hitter, so he would bat second. Because the #2 hitter bats with runners on first so often, putting a guy like Tejada there – since he grounds into a lot of double plays – would actually be problematic. The singles and lack of strike-outs helps leverage Roberts’ base-stealing, but I don’t know if I like that trade-off.

For the clean-up spot the choice is really between Reimold and Scott, though Wieters might also have a claim. Strike-outs are worse in the four-spot since there are often runners in scoring position, but Scott’s edge in power gives him the nod.

The #3 hitter leverages home runs more and OBP less than the #5 hitter (who should be better overall), so I guess Wieters would bat third and Reimold fifth.

After that, it’s descending order by quality. That would make the line-up:

Roberts – S
Markakis – L
Wieters – S
Scott – L
Reimold – R
Jones – R
Tejada – R
Atkins – R
Izturis – S

So just how optimal is this line-ups? To find out, I headed over to the line-up analysis tool at Baseball Musings (it’s not the most precise thing in the world, but it’s handy for a quick look).

Plugging in the projected OBPs and SLGs, we get that the above line-up would score 5.191 runs per game (841 per season). That’s pretty darn good, considering the optimum line-up is at 5.213 runs per game (845 per season):

Reimold
Markakis
Atkins
Scott
Wieters
Jones
Tejada
Izturis
Roberts

That strong OBP is what pushes Nolan into the #1 slot, with Roberts batting last so that he can still get on-base for the top of the line-up. Atkins in the three-hole is interesting though, and likely a bit of a quirk in the system.

The first line-up we get with Roberts leading off is #27, at 5.205 runs per game (843 per season):

Roberts
Markakis
Wieters
Scott
Reimold
Jones
Tejada
Izturis
Atkins

If you switch Izzy* and Atkins, then that would be one of the more realistic looking ones while also doing a little better on the run scoring than the ones I constructed above. The difference between Izturis-Atkins and Atkins-Izturis comes out to about 0.014 runs per game (a bit over 2 runs for the season), so it’s not exactly a huge concern.

* Every single one of the top 30 line-ups – and that’s as far as it goes – has Cesar batting 8th instead of 9th. It’s worth it to give him a few more plate appearances to allow someone else who can get on-base more often to bat infront of the top of the line-up.

The take-away for me is that there are a lot of guys who can bat in various slots, and so the order makes even a little less difference than it usually would. In any case, the line-up would score in the neighborhood of 800 runs, or a bit over (the line-up tool tends to overestimate, given that there will be injuries and such). That would be a 60+ run improvement from 2009, and would have ranked in the top 4-6 in the league last year.

The worst line-up the team could put out would apparently be:

Tejada
Izturis
Jones
Roberts
Atkins
Reimold
Wieters
Markakis
Scott

That comes in at 4.968 runs per game (805 per season). For all the complaining about how to construct line-ups, the difference between the best possible one and the worst possible one is only 40 runs (4 wins). That’s certainly not insignificant, but given that the just about the worst realistic line-up I can construct is:

Roberts
Tejada
Jones
Markakis
Atkins
Scott
Reimold
Wieters
Izturis

And it’s still at 5.119 runs per game (829 for the season). That’s suboptimal by only about 15 runs (1.5 wins), but that is also an overestimation of the disparity. And given the general precision level, it’s certainly possible that this line-up might actually be better than the previous one (though I doubt it).

My main concern with the line-up is whether batting Nick second will encourage him to take more walks again… that’s pretty much it.
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Nice plug. They better give me some love on the flipside. - Roch

Ready for some snow Roch?? If it makes you feel worse it is to be 80 and cloudy in FL today and windy....lol...mayb erain....I agree on #1 and #9 hitters. I think the lineup will change lots acroding to who is pitching. After a while it may get settled but for a while DT wil experiment..I agree on the kids hitting higher or in the middle or anywhere really. I have Orioles fever bad but can't seem to get totaly ready for ST till my Colts kick some Saint butt Sunday....I am still a die hard Colts fan unlike most everyone else who hates them from back home.

I'd like to see Nolan bat 4th.

Having a .226 hitter or a streaky guy like Scott in the cleanup spot is simply unacceptable given the amount of talent on this team.

It's going to be really fun to see the continued development of Reimold, Jones, and Weiters at the plate, and DT will have some pleasant problems to solve, e.g., where best to put these guys in the order.

His statement that the #8 guy is going to be a really good hitter is true. . .and another sign that the O's are on their way to being a truly outstanding baseball team.

Anyone who's seen Tejada play knows he should hit 3rd. At least that way, after the B-Rob walk and the Markakis single, Tejada's GIDP will score a run.

The parts are fairly imterchangable until one of the kids steps up and proves himself as a true power hitter. The key for the line-up, and run production, seems to be who hits #2 and the rest should fall into place.

Roch, if Bedard does sign with the Mariners, do the O's go after another "project pitcher" like Wang or Mulder or just forget about it and trust the kids to come through?
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My guess is they forget about it, but my track record hasn't been very good this winter. I'll see what I can find out. - Roch

Well, if Wieters comes along as he's projected he'll end up being the cean-up hitter some day anyway. If he's ready to take it over sooner, rather than later, I don't see a problem with that.

Same goes for Reimold. If he keeps up as he did last year (before the heel finally wore him down) he'll be the most interesting to watch. His speed & ability to make contact would work well in the #2 or #3 spot, but he's also shown there is a good potential for power ... and if that continues to grow he could very easily be a clean-up hitter.

Either way, it's more fun thinking about a line-up that has the potential to grow 2 or 3 future clean-up hitters (Jones included) than it has been in years past when we were carrying 3 or 4 guys who should have only been batting ninth.

Somebody w/ high OBP should bat 9th in front of Roberts...Duh ?? Trembley really isnt a #'s guy

I like Wieters high in the order somewhere & Jones 4th. Kakes should bat 2nd in my opinion, he doesnt have the power to be a 3 guy

Brummie,
I definitely wouldn't mind seeing Nolan batting 4th or 5th. Has great power potential but also some speed and a good eye. Probably won't ground into a lot of double plays. I think it really is impressive that most of the core players are a great combination of some speed with power. Jones, Reimold, Nick and maybe even Pie could steal 10-15 bases a year and hit 20+HRs (I'm a little more sketchy on Pie but I think the potential for him is there).

Brummie the Kid: You recently posted that you just have issues with Andy. In the words of Ronald Reagan "There you go again", It's not just Andy, you have attacked Trambley, Crowley, Samuel, Joe Jordan, Angelos, Atkins, Cesar I., Tejada, Zahn, Pie, Florentino, Hendrickson, Millwood, Hobgood, Sarfate, Scott, Patton, Gonzalez, et al. So....why in the love of God, would you constantly post on a site where you are hated?, Why would you post on an O's fan's website, when you are not an O's fan? Where everyone knows you are a lonely kid, not a globe-trotting journalist? Where your facts are constantly wrong, and Roch (along with others) has to constantly correct you? WHY?? WHY?? WHY?? Why don't you just go away?

I don't think they should hesitate to bat Scott cleanup against right-handers if he is going well. As soon as he starts to slump, drop him down.

Weiters projects (I think) as a clean-up type of bat, but he may not get there this year. He's stronger hitting left handed, so they may need to wait for the pop to catch up on the right side before slotting him higher than 5th night in and night out.

Maybe Scott and Tejada split time at cleanup depending on the opposing pitching? Tejada isn't going to hit more than 15-18 bombs, but he'll have plenty of doubles, which are very effective in the 4-hole as well.

hey Roch,

I agree with a few of the other posts, and have thought all along, Weiters is not a bottom of the lineup hitter. Once he is in the groove he should prove to be the best all around hitter on the team, and if he is going to get ANYthing to hit, he can not be protected by Izturis or a 7th, 8th slot bat. I don't care if he's only a 20 homer guy, he'll be putting up .320 type average sooner than later and with Roberts and Markakis ahead of him, and perhaps Jones and Tejada behind him, that equals a ton of RBI.

Weiters hit.301 after the All Star break which shows to me he was warming up to the MLB challenge, and by September he was dialing in the Weiters numbers that he posted at every other level: September stats:
.425OB/ .511SLG/ .362 Avg.

He is going to be an absolute BEAST, and will begin terrorizing MLB pitchers this year, he is a rare talent who can straigh up put the wood on the ball... to all fields and from both sides of the plate. I don't think Longoria was batting 8th his second year in the majors, and he was on a competitor.

Just my thoughts for what they are worth. (PS Matusz will also be a beast, and take a look at Reimold and Pie's numbers after the All Star break, phenomenal.)

Should be a fun season, at least at the plate.

Good job yesterday Roch. I especially enjoyed the segment with Trembley, I can tell he likes you, just makes your job easier. You are a lucky man!!
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Thanks. I was hoping he didn't feel like I grilled him too much. - Roch

Very good debates and nice article by Moroz posted by CB. I agree that Wieters and Reimold need to be getting regular ABs unless they show they can't manage it. I love Tejada in the 6 or 7 spot. I like Markakis in the 2 and 3 as Trembley seems to favor. I would like to see Jones a little higher than 6 though and ultimately don't see DT ever going that low with him unless he slumps badly. Ultimately, it would take a lot (like a series of "Sunday lineups") for this team not to produce consistently. I think the Crow and DT should feel plenty of heat if this group underachieves. Pitching, well that's probably where we will continue to take some lumps (but not the Adam Eaton kind). Anyway, there are plenty of reasons to tune in to this year's team which is certainly a step forward.

Hey Roch,

I enjoy the blog. I was just curious as to whether or not Oscar Salazar (who went bridge twice last night in the 3rd inning against the DR) will be breaking camp with the Padres this year? Also, who did the O's end up getting when they dealt him this past summer?

Enjoy the snow!

-Colin
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Went bridge? That's a new one for me. I don't know what the Padres have planned for him. He'll have to win a spot in spring training. The Orioles received Cla Meredith in the trade. - Roch

Brummie_Oriole said:
I'd like to see Nolan bat 4th.

Having a .226 hitter or a streaky guy like Scott in the cleanup spot is simply unacceptable given the amount of talent on this team.
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Brummie, I agree that Scott should not be hitting 4th. I see him batting 6th or 7th. I can see Reimold in the 4th spot, but I'm hoping Wieters shows the power he had in the minors (and in September) and handles the cleanup spot well. Reimold has enough skills he could hit anywhere from #2 to #6 and you could justify it. In my projected lineup he's batting 6th, but mostly due to the presence of others.

Roberts (draws a walk, then steals second)
Tejada (lines a single to left, Roberts scores, O's up 1-0)
Markakis (lines a single to right, Tejada to third)
Wieters (rips a double off the scoreboard, Tejada scores and Markakis to third, O's up 2-0)
Jones (hits the first pitch to the wall in CF, caught at the 404 sign, sac fly, Markakis scores, O's up 3-0)
Reimold (works the count for a walk on a 3-2 pitch, runners on 1st and 2nd)
Scott (in a hot streak, hits a bomb onto the flag court for a three run HR and a 6-0 lead)
Atkins (joins the parade with a double down the LF line)
Izturis (grounds out to 2B, advancing the runner and "turning over the lineup")

I can see it, anyway. I hope everyone else can, too.

To put Weiters in the cleanup spot would be suicide. He would get caught up in the numbers game and struggle immensely.

Do Weiters a favor and bat him 5th or 6th!

I'd love to see Wieters or Reimold bat cleanup. I just don't want to see Jones bat cleanup. He was a much better hitter batting 2nd, as I think he presses too much to be a power hitter batting 3rd or 4th. Early in the year he was being selective with his pitches, and his numbers were great, but when he went into the power slots, he went back to swinging at bad pitches and his production went down. I also hope Trembley doesn't switch Jones and Markakis from game to game. Mentally it's a lot different batting 2nd or 3rd, so why make 2 of your best hitters deal with that? Leave them in one spot and let them get comfortable there, especially if it is Jones 2nd and Markakis 3rd.

Wow...I keep reading all of this brummie bashing but that last comment has made the most sense to me all week. I personally can't understand why we as fans like 20-25 hrs/yr so much that we over look 3 months of terrible swings. Which leads me to wonder why Jermaine Dye hasnt been offered a contract to DH for the Orioles??? Hes a brand new 36 yrs old which means we could get him for 1-2 yrs. His numbers are better and more consistent then scotts, yes he does cost more aswell hit right handed but he hits all of his hr's to left field which last time i checked Camden yards has a nice basket of seats in short left. Also his experience(also Played in the AL all but his debuet season) and knowledge of the game could be an asset to the young players. Dye, would then give the ability to trade scott for some sort of pitching prospect(WHICH HAPPENS TO BE NEEDED THE MOST IN BALTIMORE). Dyes contract would be up when we need to start spending money on the young guys, and even the potenial to deal dye to a contender mid-season. Scott gone then leaves Pie and Lou the oppurtunity to grow into better ball players with more playing time. Don't get me wrong Im sure Scott is a great guy, but i just cant be excited watching him take high school swings for half the season.

Roch

Where would you say Brian Roberts ranks compared to other leadoff guys you've covered throughout the years for the Orioles? I'm twenty-eight and can't really think of anyone that has outperformed him. The only thing I remember about Brady Anderson was the one huge year he had.
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Probably the best. Brady stole a lot of bases, too. Wasn't just the power he brought to the top of the order. But Roberts has some pop, steals bases (third is almost automatic) and is a doubles machine. It's an interesting debate. - Roch

The only problem with batting a lefty 2nd is that Roberts won't steal. There's a gaping hole because the 1st baseman is holding the runner on. If you steal, the hole disappears for the lefty.
Could Reimold handle that 2nd slot? Tejada does hit into a lot of DPs, but he'll do that anywhere in the lineup.

This is what the 2010 Orioles starting lineup should be barring any spring training injuries:
1.Roberts 2b
2.Jones cf
3.Markakis rf
4.Tejada 3b
5.Scott dh
6.Reimold lf
7.Weiters c
8.Adkins 1b
9.Itzturis ss
This will alternate right/left batters every other hitter and is a well balanced lineup.

I have seen all the many lineups and the more I think about it, having Reimold and Wieters up in 4th and 5th is more and more exciting to me. First, as Trembley said they are major league hitters. They have more pop than Nick and Tejada and they get on base more than Luke Scott. More importantly we need to see what we have with the kids and it may be time to throw them in the poolI like the variety of line-ups we can have and the balance we can have but I think we should let Trembley explore his many options and move people up and down depending on how hot they get. When Scott gets hot move him to clean-up quick and just as quick drop him. I agree that only BROB at 1 and Izturis at 9 are set but I still can't resist posting a line-up.
Roberts S
Tejada R
Markakis L
Reimold R
Wieters S
Jones R
Scott L
Atkins R
Izturis S

This is my preferred but I can't argue its much better than most of what I have seen and I prefer left right balance for late game situations.

Brummie! You said something positive about the O's!

Brummie_Oriole said:

"...given the amount of talent on this team."

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Brummie_Oriole said:
I'd like to see Nolan bat 4th.

Having a .226 hitter or a streaky guy like Scott in the cleanup spot is simply unacceptable given the amount of talent on this team.

Wow B_O, now this team has talent. You are a real piece of work. What happened to ripping the front office everyday for not getting the cream of the crop free agents or making that all important trade for a big hitting 1B that would ruin our future. Please just go away. Oh, and did you ever get Roch those articles--you are a child.

I think Nick will bat third mnost of the time and the clean up hitter will vary depending on day and opposing pitcher, but it will all work itself out. This team will score lots of runs.

Cereal Blogger - thanks for doing that lineup analysis. From what I remember about articles on this stuff, the difference between optimum lineup and randomized is about two wins a year.

I like Markakis #2. Up until last year, he was good for a .400 OBP, he's lefty (gets the hole when Roberts has to be held at first), and he's a smart baserunner. He is also a doubles machine not far behind B-Rob in that regard (a Markakis double can drive home B-Rob when he's on, and it puts Markakis in scoring position for the 3-4-5 hitters). That said, I'm not too upset when he's #3 since I don't think we have an obvious other choice for that slot just yet.

I'd go with CB's lineup, with the small change of dropping Scott to 6th and sliding Reimold and Jones up to 4 & 5 (or 5 & 4).

Ok Jerry, back off. Brummie made some good comments so lets just let it go. We ask him not to do his bashing rant, he doesn't, and you still go after him. Now that isn't very nice.
Brummie, I totally agree, Reimold is best player for number 4. The team does have talent, good of you to notice. I will also say, if you don't like Andy MacPhail, you have that right and we know how you feel, best to just go on from there. Good post though.
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I'm feeling good about this. Let's keep the momentum going and continue to treat each other with a little more respect. It's fine to disagree. Just keep the gloves above the belt. - Roch

I try to be a good poster and say something positve and look at some of the hostility I get in response (Barry Melrose!).

Sorry Roch. I tried to be positive on a Friday, I really did.
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And it's appreciated. It's fine to criticize, as I say over and over. Just no reason to hurl the same insults at the same person. It gets tired. And yes, you can praise the team when it's appropriate. Hell won't freeze over - though I keep checking the forecast. - Roch

Did I see that Brummie said we have talent on this team how can that be since Andy doesn't know what he is doing.

Doesnt it seem like a fit for Markakis to bat #2? I mean realistically, he doesnt have much power and is great for contact. my lineup:

Roberts
Markakis
Tejada
Jones

..And the rest is for Dave to decide

brocc said:
The only problem with batting a lefty 2nd is that Roberts won't steal. There's a gaping hole because the 1st baseman is holding the runner on. If you steal, the hole disappears for the lefty.

***********

Many managers actually look to put a lefty in the 2nd slot. The reason is, if the leadoff hitter gets on, a lefthanded batter obscures the catcher's view of the first base side of the infield, and can impede the catcher's righthanded throw to 2nd somewhat. So a LH can actually make it easier for the leadoff hitter to steal.

Good job Brummie, today alone you’ve single handily contradicted you’re entire existence on this blog. Nice work. You’ve done yourself a great service by demonstrating that you CAN be constructive in some of your observations. My first guess was that Roch was editing your comments to give us bizarre Brummie.

I think the lineup would be pretty nice looking like this:

Roberts
Jones
Markakis
Wieters
Reimold
Scott
Tejada
Atkins
Izturis

Brummie said "I try to be a good poster and say something positve and look at some of the hostility I get in response (Barry Melrose!)."
The problem is that you have no credibility left given your comment history. If you really want to make an earnest attempt to change and be taken more seriously, it will take time to undo the damage you've done to your reputation on SoR.
But on the other side of the coin, we need to encourage this behavior from Brummie, not discourage. If we discourage this new trend, he will find it easier to revert to his old ways and settle for negative attention. Keep that in mind when you attack him for finally taking our advice and trying to change his ways.

SOR...I'm ready for the blizzard.
Shovel...check.
Gloves...check.
Hat...check.
Goggles...check.
SOR up and running on the Google machine...check.
Tito's Vodka...check.

B_O...even when you try to be nice you can't help yourself:
"3. Following number 2, the depth the O's now have at the starting pitcher position. When Milltread goes down with an injury better known as Thirty-games-under-500-itus, we will be able to turn to a guy who has numerous major league starts under his belt."

If you actually believe what you write (and I have serious doubts...I think you are insecure and just groping for attention) how on earth are the O's going to finish 30 games under .500?

Markakis should hit 3rd most days. He's better cast as a #2 hitter, but I don't think the team has a true #3 hitter yet. UNtil we develop one, Markakis makes an adequate fill-in. He needs to get back to taking walks, though. Cutting his walks in half, like he did last year, really hurt his value as an offensive player. Nick should hit around .300, and if his plate patience comes back, have an OBP around .380.

This would be the lineup I would send out there on most days:

Roberts, 2b
Jones, cf
Markakis, rf
Tejada, 3b
Wieters, c
Scott, dh
Reimold, lf
Atkins, 1b
Izturis, ss

Jones needs to learn some patience at the plate, and that he doesn't need to take wild helicopter swings to hit the ball. He's young and getting stronger; the power will come. Hitting between Roberts and Markakis should teach him that. FOr the first 3 weeks or so last year, all of them were getting on base at good rates. If we can replicate that, Tejada and his near-200 hits should get plenty of RBI chances. Miggy isn't the power threat he used to be, but 190+ hits with men on base is going to lead to runs.

Statistically, Scott hits best out of the 6-hole, so I put him there. I like Reimold 7th because he's good at getting on base and he can run a bit, which allows Atkins and Izturis to have RBI chances while turning the lineup over. Wieters or Reimold should eventually move to the cleanup spot, but I'd be OK with Tejada playing there for a few months while the young guys continue to learn.

One of the benefits of having Pie on the team is that he can spell all three outfielders, meaning we don't need a dedicated DH. Reimold and Jones could both get a day off with the following lineup:

Roberts, 2b
Markakis. rf
Wieters, c
Tejada, 3b
Scott, lf
Wigginton, 1b
Pie, cf
Atkins, dh
Izturis, ss

Atkins also gets a semi-day off at DH in that lineup. It should be pretty easy to get Pie 3-4 starts a week in a rotation of OF and DH spots. Obviously, Scott should stay in the lineup when he's on a hot streak, but when he's cooled off, put the rotation back in place. Pie showed a lot in the second half last year, and even though he's the 4th OF, he deserves to get at least 350 AB to show what he can do. If he gets 3 starts a week, each of our normal starting OF can get either a day off or a day at DH to get a bit of a rest.

Roch-

FYI. Most of the Fantasy publications i have been reading, (and I don't mean Hustler), have Nick as the #4 outfielder in the MLB.
That may seem a bit high, especially in 4x4 leagues, BUT, the reasoning is this, the one says 60% his consistency, 20% he is getting older, and MOST IMPORTANTLY the 20% chance that THIS is the year he breaks out into an amazing offensive weapon that most scouts say will happen sooner rather than later. He is going into his 5th season, despite being only 26 years old. He is getting his "Man-Strength" as some call it, and the O's line-up has him protected a little better.

I fore-see a MONSTER season for Nick, for the above reasons as well as to bash the few people who had the nerve to say he had a down year last year at 293-18-101. lol.
Mark my words here today, Markakis line for 2010 will be...

DRUM ROLL
.318
30 HR
135 RBI
102 Runs
13 SB
3rd in the MVP voting
1st Gold Glove for a .998FD% with 19 Assists.

I just hope Roberts is running all year around with Miggy in that two-hole. The guy led the NL in double plays last year.

I still want Wieters in that 4-spot, but I'd be happy with Reimold also. I'm even okay with Luke hitting there as long as our manager DOES hit the panic button when the struggles begin. However, when Luke is hitting .400 over two weeks there's nobody better in that spot on this team.

I guess Andy M has done a great job according to Brummie.

Brummie_Oriole said:
I'd like to see Nolan bat 4th.

Having a .226 hitter or a streaky guy like Scott in the cleanup spot is simply unacceptable given the amount of talent on this team.

It is definitely going to snow three feet with pigs flying also.....

Roch, I want you to use all your powers to get Andy to sign Pedro Martinez. Trade Guthrie! I am tired of seeing all those balls leave Camden Yards. Pedro is the man and he is available! Add some character to the team and really get national recognition.

I dont think it matters much who hits clean up. The line up is pretty balanced. Situational hitting and making productive outs will be key. Trembley should just ask for a volunteer and go with it.

Roberts
Jones
Markakis
Reimold
Tejada
Scott
Wieters
Atkins
Izturis

EVERYONE STOP!!!!!!

The reason Miggy hits into alot of DP's is that he hits the ball!!!!!!!!! Hard!!!!!!!!!!!

That is a good thing if you have not noticed.

Bat Miggy 2nd and we finish above five hundred.

Simple done NO MORE DEBATE!!!!!!!!

199 hits last year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Let's go number 9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I like Nick hitting in the 3 hole. The number three guy in the lineup doesnt necessarily have to hit for a lot of power, just be able to drive in runs, a role which I believe is best suited for Nick. I like Scott batting cleanup. Right now he is our biggest power threat, and if the guy behind him is swinging a good bat, pitchers might be a little less willing to try and paint the outer third on him all of the time.

Roch, do you think that if the club struggles out of the gate, and is not playing well at the break, DT might get the axe? I have a sinking feeling that he just may be a lame duck manager.

Okay and without looking at anyone else's paper, here's my lineup and I'll somewhat defend it. (Which is way more fun than working right now.)

Roberts
Jones
Markakis
Wieters
Nolan
Tejada
Luke
Atkins
Izturis

I want Nolan hitting behind Matt because we don't exactly have speed in the middle of the lineup anyway, so why not let him get ON base and Miggy or Luke can move 'em over one. I will admit that while I can be persuaded to join the Garrett Atkins Fan Club (I have never watched him up close and live and in person, so I'll reserve my judgement until I see the O's bat around in the first on Opening Day), I don't need him any higher in the lineup.

I'm also okay with Atkins hitting 8th because that's where Aubrey needs to hit in a MLB lineup versus his MiLB cleanup spot. Though I still dig the high socks.

Then again. A lineup is really just a crapshoot in terms of who's hitting in what spot, right? With all the brouhaha over (was it?) Mora's spot last year, hitting 5th or wherever he was/suddenly wasn't... you're really only in that number spot once, right? I guess it's more who you're lined up behind/in front of.

I may end up posting way too much today, apologies in advance. I've spent way too much time on Twitter today, too. AND checking the delivery status of my 2010 Prospect Handbook. #needsalife

mlbtr now reporting that Eric Bedard says he is resigning with the Mariners for 1 year with a low base and heavy incentives. Bedard is also quoted as saying (on Thursday) that he hadn't receive any other offers...which would obviously include the Orioles. Does that mean that Andy MacPhail never got beyond the exploratory stages with his agent? I know the team reviewed the medical files.

Hey Roch, Off subject, but I guess we can strike Erik Bedard off the list. Looks like he re-signed with the Mariners. He said they were his first choice so it didn't look like he had as much desire to return here as maybe I had thought. Not sure who else, if anyone they might try to sign as an option. Do you have any thoughts of those remaining who they might be interested in pick up?
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Perhaps none. I haven't heard any other names. - Roch

Lineup is simple:

Roberts
Tejada
Markakis
Weiters
Jones
Scott
Reimold
Atkins
Izturis

= 900 Runs

=87 wins if healthy

= possible wildcard with meaningful games in September.

= Priceless for my 11 year old

Roch,

It was good to see the positive comment, but I think you're mistaken...Hell will freeze over - take a look outside...LOL

I really, really need the youth to step up this year - It's getting harder and harder to defend ourselves against these ignorant Yankee fans.

Team looks good on paper...Let's look good in the newspaper too this year.

Go O's!!!

Roberts
Markakis
Tejada
Weiters
Jones
Reimold
Scott
Atkins
Izturis

If Tejada is all, what Mr. Trembley says he is, then why not hit him cleanup? It's a bad idea to put extra pressure on a young and inexperienced player by hitting him at probably the most important position in the lineup. Maybe, O's would be better off by having a cleanup hitter by committee depending upon who the pitcher is and who is swinging the bat with gusto.

A second place hitter has to be able to utilize the hole between first and second. Markakis isn't good at it; he tends to hit the ball to the first baseman. Reimold, on the other hand, gives in to the pitchers pitch on the outside corner and shoots it to the right side. Reimold also is patient with a high OBP and that would allow Roberts to commit some larceny.

Wieters sure did hit .287 last year, but he had an inordinate amount of bleeders and bloopers to achieve that number. I'd like to see him settle in before entrusting him with additional responsibilities.

I would bat Nick second. Being a lefty you want him up at the plate with Roberts on first which opens up a hole for him to hit through. I think DT is a big fan of that as well.

Tejada can bat third. I would put him seventh or eighth but that is just personal angst/ disgust and not fair to the team. I suppose I would only bat him that low only on the days after he gives up on a defensive play. Although now that he is at third it'll be hard to judge lack of effort versus inexperience.

I agree with some others that Luke shouldn't bat fourth. Realistically he should be batting 8th in the line up unless he can have some level of consistency.

I like Reimold over Wieters in the 4 spot because I think Reimold has a great batting eye and can absolutely crush the ball. We'll have to see how Jones is coming back, although I don't see him at fourth, maybe sixth.

mstrchef13 said:

Roberts (draws a walk, then steals second)
Tejada (lines a single to left, Roberts scores, O's up 1-0)
Markakis (lines a single to right, Tejada to third)
Wieters (rips a double off the scoreboard, Tejada scores and Markakis to third, O's up 2-0)
Jones (hits the first pitch to the wall in CF, caught at the 404 sign, sac fly, Markakis scores, O's up 3-0)
Reimold (works the count for a walk on a 3-2 pitch, runners on 1st and 2nd)
Scott (in a hot streak, hits a bomb onto the flag court for a three run HR and a 6-0 lead)
Atkins (joins the parade with a double down the LF line)
Izturis (grounds out to 2B, advancing the runner and "turning over the lineup")
==================================
I like your scenario, however I don't see Tejada going first to third on a single to left. He still scores on the Wieters double though.

If "The Book" (whatever that means) really says this: "You (sic) fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots," then I don't ever have to waste my time reading it. That idea is foolish.

I think we should learn from last year since we were obviously playing to see how are young players could handle the big leagues. This is what I got out of last year.

1. It seemed to me that Jones hit better in the 2nd hole because he was more focused on going the opposite way. When he was 3rd or 4th he thought he had to hit a homerun.
2. Wieters was a better hitter when he was protected.
3. Pie played very well at the end when him a Crowley clicked and also when he played Center, he has A LOT of potential!
4. Reimold will probably lead our team in home runs with the power he showed when completely healthy.
5. Luke Scott when he is hot is GREAT, but that happens for only 2 weeks and he goes into a season long slump.
6. Markakis is a Stud and is our best hitter so he should be 3, he will hit more home runs but he wasn't really protected either. Who was scared of seeing Huff or Scott?

With that being said.

Roberts 2b
Jones LF - With him in LF no one will go home on our corner OF, plus he can play shallow here.
Markakis RF
Reimold 1b/DH -gives Markakis protection with his home run power
Weiters C - could flip flop with Remiold depending on pitcher
Tejada 3b - gives Weiters protection with a proven hitter
Pie CF - need to give this guys a shot, he could have the most potential
Atkins- 1b/DH- He is only a fill in until we sign a big bat next year
Izturis- Already set

I took Scott out because he is not in our long term plans and is way to streaky. We are not going to the playoffs next year, but we will field a team that has huge potential and could possibly get to .500. Like McPhail said, why pay big money on big bats if it only gets you to .500, lets spend it if it take us to 90+ wins.

Also cant wait to see Josh Bell, so Atkins could be moving to DH/Bench. Then Tejada can play first if need be.

Roch...I noticed Trembley said Tejada's a good two-strike hitter.

Maybe it's just me, but I remember Miggy being a terrible two-strike hitter during his Oriole tenure. I seemed all pitchers had to do was get two strikes on him and then throw him a breaking ball in the dirt and he'd go fishing.

Was that just me or is Trembley confused? Or perhaps Miggy has improved the last couple years?
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I don't have any numbers in front of me to confirm or dispute it. - Roch

On a slow news day, how about an outrageously long, overdue response to my friend, Ken Francis? (And amarie thinks *she* needs a life.)

“Attempt to Convince Ken Francis that Trading Chad Bradford was Probably the Right Thing to Do – Take Two.”

Ken, you’re absolutely right; my reply to your argument about Chad Bradford wasn’t particularly convincing or thoughtful. I wrote it quickly at work while trying to get home. You deserve better. Remember, you asked for it. . . .

First let’s set the scene. Two forces were at play at the time of Flanny’s Great Reliever Buyout:

1) That offseason there was a lot of press devoted to the many blown leads the Orioles had suffered the year before. Meanwhile, little attention was paid to the fact that all teams blow leads, or to the team’s minus-131 run differential. Guh!

2) Simultaneously, in the far off land of sabermetrics, an understanding had passed into common knowledge, and presumably all the way into the hidebound general management of most major league baseball teams, namely that bullpen arms are overvalued and that it’s foolish to overpay and overcommit to them, especially middle relievers. Hey, *I* knew these things and I’m just an idiot fan, so I figured surely Mike Flanagan knew them too. . . . um, right, Mike?

So the off-season had barely begun when Flanny ran the table on relievers, obviously figuring that all he had to do was stick a finger in the blown-lead dyke and, voila, a pennant! He wanted to win, and the time was now! No waiting for the market to play out -- that’s for wimps! ESTABLISH the market and let other teams breathe your fumes!

Well, we all know how that worked out. Obviously the whole premise underlying the signings of Danys, Jamie and Chad – that the Orioles were serious contenders – was dead wrong. In focusing on the bullpen, the warehouse conveniently overlooked the team’s other weaknesses. A few blown leads here and there had been unpleasant, sure, but they were also absolutely, completely, and stupendously beside the point.

If the premise was bad, the execution was awful. We’ll never know by exactly how much Flanny overpaid and overcommitted to sign those three players. But two years before, Mariano Rivera, the greatest reliever in history, had signed for two years plus a club option. For a bottom-feeder to pay top dollar and commit three years each to a situational lefty, a middle reliever, and a sometime-closer with a checkered past was at best a head-scratcher. Within the industry at the time these moves got the same reception the Matt Holiday signing got this year, namely: Why? Who were you bidding against?

If Flanny felt he had to overpay to get bullpen help, fine. But why three years? Why not test the contender hypothesis for a year, or two if you must, then resign them if they’re so fabulous? Overpaying was one thing, but overcommiting added insult to injury. Go to Cott’s Baseball Contracts at http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/search?q=chad+bradford and look at the current crop of free agent relievers (below the starters) and see how many of them have EVER gotten even TWO-year contracts. Not many. Every now and then you’ll see some insanity, like B.J. Ryan for five, but most of the multi-year contracts to relievers are elite closers like Mo.

It almost feels unfair to evaluate how these deals worked out, because they were ridiculous from the outset. How could any team expect three relievers to produce $14 million worth of value for three straight years? Only pitching 50 innings a year, a relief pitcher has to be almost perfect to be worth $4.6 million dollars, especially if he isn’t a closer. (He should also be pitching for a contending team, but that’s a different issue.) And expecting three relief pitchers to be good, much less perfect, for three straight years is pretty ridiculous.

Who could have predicted that Baez would be unspeakably awful and then get hurt? Or that Walker would pitch well for a year, get overused and maybe hurt and afterward be so bad he’d get released? Or that Bradford would pitch really well for two years and then get . . . wait for it . . . hurt? Answer: Any random fan. No smart GM commits three years to middle relievers, or even closers if he can avoid it.

Look at the O’s right now. Pick your favorite three guys in the bullpen, say Gonzalez, JJ, and Koji. Think you’ll get three years of great performance from all three of them? Heck, any one of them? Or do you think maybe one or two or all three might get hurt in three years of pitching (all three have been hurt recently) and/or have an off-year or two in there? The good news is that none of them has a three-year contract, even our shiny new $12 million closer, and still they cost less than Chad, Jamie and Danys did. And Koji only got two years because we were desperate for starters and to break into the Japan market. That's it for multi-year contracts in the O’s bullpen.

So let’s look at those gruesome WAR stats (from CHONE, Dr. Tom) for the three years total of these deals:

Baez: .1
Walker: .5
Bradford: 3.2

Danys Baez and Jamie Walker got $31 million dollars and provided roughly replacement level performance (think Albers or Sarfate) when they were even able to take the field. Subtract the 2 or 3 million you’d pay two replacement level players for 3 years and that’s a tidy $28 million flushed right down the toilet.

Finally we come to Chad. Obviously, lumping Chad in with Jamie and Danys isn’t fair. Chad was by far the best and cheapest, and was actually earning his salary when he got hurt with Tampa and lost all of 2009. Please don’t get the impression that I didn’t appreciate Bradford’s value, because I did -- a lot. As you probably know, Chad was one of the players highlighted in Moneyball as a very undervalued asset, in part because as a submariner he didn’t fit in a neat box.

Ken, like you and many others I was initially disappointed to see Chad go and to get nothing back*, especially given his durability to that point and the fact that we needed him. The Orioles’ second-half bullpens haven’t exactly been titanic lately, unless you mean they inevitably hit a very hard object and sink like a stone.

*I’d have been even more disappointed to lose Chad had I known I’d later have to wade through 250 questions on this fine blog about the PTBNL and 250 more “jokes” about it. (Hahaha! Stop it; you’re killing me! Really!)

So, Ken, why do you think Andy should have been able to get a player in return for Chad in addition to dumping his contract? Do you think other teams were offering to take on $5 million in salary for a year and a half of middle relief and also offer a prospect? If they were, why would Andy have turned them down? And, furthermore, why don’t you think $5 million is worth saving? Yes, the O’s gave up Ray in the Millwood deal probably in part for appearances sake, but Texas also paid $3 million of Millwood’s salary. Was a year of Chris Ray worth 3 million dollars plus another million for salary? Very unlikely, IMO. I think it was a better deal for the O’s than if they had just taken on Millwood’s salary and not given up a player.

Look, we fans hate deals where we sell a good player, because for all we know that savings ends up lining the owner’s pockets. But Chad Bradford, at that price, was a luxury. What’s an extra win or two to a last place team compared to putting $5 million into over-slot draft picks? Plus I think Andy’s the kind of guy who thought about it from Chad’s perspective: Why not let the guy pitch in the playoffs and get a shot at the World Series? As things turned out, if Andy had kept him he’d have ended up eating the last year of his contract. Last place teams don’t take those chances, not when they can buy those innings much more cheaply and invest the money in the future.

Was it a popular move? No, and I understand why. But was it smart organizationally, for the O’s and for Chad himself? Yes, I think it was. And maybe somewhere down the line the Rays return the favor . . . .

mstrchef13, I'm so glad that you are on board with my Opening Day first inning "everybody hits! everybody hits!" little league fun that I proposed. hee :)

At least we know we won't be facing Halladay that day, right? See, silver linings all over the place!

I'm going to try and weasel my way into a ticket and be there despite my team having our FanFest the next morning. #stillunsuccessfulinfindingalife

Roberts
Jones
Markakis
Reimold
Weiters
Tejada
Scott
Atkins
Izturis

I would be very wary of putting Jones into a run-producing hole until he shows that he can keep himself from getting homer-happy. Putting him 2nd keeps him focused on moving runners along and hitting the ball to right field. I think the rest is fairly self-explanatory. You can move Scott up when he's in one of his ridiculous hot streaks and if Atkins shows his '07 and '08 form, he can move up as well.

The only downside of this lineup is that it increases the likelihood that Nick gets pitched around, at least early in the year until Reimold and Weiters can prove they will get the job done. If you put Tejada in the 4-hole and drop Reimold to 6, he'll probably see more pitches, but I feel Reimold will acclimate himself well to the cleanup spot, presuming he's fully healthy, of course.

The quality of our lineup is almost wholly contingent on Roberts remaining healthy - if he goes down, we don't have a decent replacement on the major league club or at AAA.

If we get some solid contributions from our young starters, we could be looking at a dangerous team. If we get inconsistency, we're looking at the Texas Rangers of most of the last decade.

amarie - my only concern with your lineup is putting Matt in front of Nolan for the time being. Until Matt shows he has enough power to hit homeruns and extra base hits consistently, the team is put in the position where a faster runner (Nolan) is hampered by how fast the hitter before him (Matt) can go. Unfortunately, as we've seen, speed is not Mr. Wieters' forte. We should probably take advantage of as many first-to-third type runners as we can.

Then again, on the flip side, a contact hitter w/ power threat like Nolan would definitely afford Wieters with a lot more pitches to hit ... especially if Roberts and/or Markakis-Jones are already on base.

Come on April! I'm ready!

Rusty,

You actually have my favorite line up to start the season. I say to start the season because hopefully some of the young studs will step into the 4 hole. But I like Tejada there to start. Hes a veteran, he will protect Nick Markakis and I would worry about some of the younger guys being there before they are ready. Plus, youre right, the lefty righty altering falls nicely into place.

OCJ- very good if not very long explanation of the Great reliever acquisitions by Flanny. You indirectly made me remember a previous criticism that dwarfs any minor criticisms I have of the current regime. I forgot how absurdly reactionary the previous FO was. This FO is way more proactive and that cannot be overemphasized. Sure, I think there is more that could be done, but the actual structural components and decision making mechanisms are in place. Someone just needs to decide to pull the trigger on the final pieces but I cannot claim to be disappointed if it occurs in the next 18 months. Longer than that and you begin to have to fill other voids and are missing out of B-Rob and Markakis prime years. ANyway, you and Ken both make nice points.

Roch , where do you think pie will play/bat ??
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He'll play a little left and a little center, and get some at-bats at DH. I think Trembley likes him hitting second against right-handers. - Roch

Did anyone see that the Ravens are not raising ticket prices? O's,,,,take notes

Jones is the best option to hit 4th, (with the current personnel) and one of the worst options to hit second.
Heres 4 reasons why.

1. Power. Without the injuries and the second half slump he was on pace to hit 30-35 dingers.

2. Speed. If the 1-2-3 hiters go 3 up 3 down, he then becomes a speedy leadoff hitter to start the second.

3. Strategy. He is not our best hitter nor a good situational hitter. You bat a guy that can bunt, take a walk, go to the opposite field etc. 2nd. And you bat your best hitter 3rd.

4. Balance. As Dave T. mentioned we want to have a R/L balance to our lineup, our best hitter with some pop is Markakis and therefore he should be batting 3rd. In order to maintain that balance we need a Righty in the cleanup spot, our most proven righthanded hitter with power is Jones.

So given these points, this should be our order:

1. Roberts (S)
2. Tejada (R)
3. Markakis(L)
4. Jones (R)
5. Weiters (S)
6. Reimold (R)
7. Scott (L)
8. Atkins (R)
9. Izturis (S)

And that would be a perfectly balanced lineup.

A typical interview from DT in regards to a veteran. He is kissing up to them so they are not one who gets the indians up against him come July. Tejada was a terrible two strike hitter his last year here.

Just more BS filler from DT to try and make Andy sound like a rocket scientist ....when in fact he is nothing more then a budget cutting big dissapointment!

OCJ...I think we both disagree w/ Ken Francis on the Bradford deal...but I disagreed in a lot less words.

I kind of think that the Orioles could and should be more aggressive in the stolen base department and if thats the case I think they lump Izturis, Roberts and Markakis together.

I personally think the lineup should be

(1) Roberts 2b
(2) Markakis Rf
(3) Tejada 1b
(4) Reimold Lf
(5) Jones Cf
(6) Wieters C
(7) Scott DH
(8) Atkins 3b
(9) Izturis SS

I think Trembley put way too much stock in splitting the left handers and right handers in the order up last year. IF you can hit you can hit, and how are you ever gonna get better if your a LFB if you never see LHP?

I think the idea is to try and keep Jones, Reimold and Wieters in the same part of the lineup together. Markakis can hit anywhere you want to put him. But with those 3 I think they want them together so they can grow together.

I also realize I put Miggy at 1b, but Im really cringing at the idea of him playing 3b with his inaccuracies with his arm.

Tracy, one reason I had Matt in front of Nolan wasn't so much that Nolan could run up behind Matt and PUSH him home, but because I think Matt's not exactly going to be a singles hitter. Give him an extra base and I don't think we're worrying too much about Nolan missing out on the first-to-third situation.

But then, if everyone could just please bring their "potential" and "career year" to the park this year, this would all be a moot point. (Or a "mute" point, for those that like to ignore the rules of the English language. I hate to leave anyone out, you know.)

Don't y'all miss when I had a job with no internet access and couldn't post until the end of a thread at 4am? :)

I did a little research after my nap, and found this regarding Tejada. In the past six seasons, his batting average with two strikes is as follows:

2004: .233 (MLB: .191)
2005: .232 (MLB: .192)
2006: .250 (MLB: .194)
2007: .251 (MLB: .192)
2008: .225 (MLB: .190)
2009: .250 (MLB: .186)

Source: www.baseball-reference.com

He is, on average, 40 points higher than the league average with two strikes. This is significant, and it means that people can stop calling him a "terrible" two-strike hitter.

I think he is the best option as a number two hitter because:

1) he hits right handed, so it will not discourage Roberts from stealing bases
2) in recent years he has cut down on his strikeouts while maintaining his average, making him a better contact hitter
3) he can't ground into double plays if Roberts is on second (via 2B or SB)
4) he still has enough speed to run the bases well in front of Markakis and whoever follows
5) **hopefully** batting second, which will require a more patient mind set than he has employed in the past, will lead to some more walks

Just my opinion, nothing more.

I see no reason to put Scott in the lineup. If Pie is healthy let him play. His second half improvement merits it and he has a lot more upside than Scott. I would also bat him ninth in order to give him some protection with Roberts batting directly behind him. Here is my lineup:

Roberts
Markakis
Reimold (DH)
Weiters
Jones
Tejada
Atkins
Izturis
Pie

Roberts
Tejada
Markakis
Atkins
Riemold
Jones
Wieters
Pie
Izturis

In my opinion you put the vets in the important spots of the lineup (i.e. cleanup) and let the young guys settle in and earn their opportunity to bat high in the lineup.

Let's hope that Trembley checks his 2009 stats and notices that Wieters went on a tear once he was moved up in the order. It's easy to say the Trembley was just easing WIeters into the major league game; but he had no threat behind him, so it was easy for pitchers to have him hit their pitch. Once he moved up and was covered by a decent hitter or two, he began to do some damage. I am very worried that Trembley is going to screw these young kids up. He doesn't seem to show any emotion when they lose close games, games that, with a player moved up here or there, could have been won. He doesn't make some of the soundest baseball decisions and as we saw last year, his team was poorly coached on the bases and many a cut-off man was missed. If it happens once it's a mistake worth a reminder, twice it's a poor coaching or just an inadequate player .. both should be corrected.

As for Brady he has a rather strange distinction of being (I am pretty sure) the only player to hit 50HR one season, and steal 50 bases in another. If you check out his stats over his career aside from those two big years, he only hit 20+ HR in two other seasons, and he stole 30+ bases two more times. One thing Brady always managed to do though was get on base as he had many seasons with OBP above the .360 mark