The Orioles are tied for the seventh-best betting favorite to win the 2024 World Series. That is a step up from last winter when they were tied for the 17th in odds from betonline.ag.
7/1: Atlanta
8/1: Los Angeles Dodgers
9/1: Houston, Texas
12/1: New York Yankees, Philadelphia
Now that the World Series is over, the hot stove season has just about arrived. Soon we’ll be hearing and reading rumors of potential trades and free agent acquisitions. The hot stove season can garner about as much interest as the regular season.
If the Orioles look to dip into the free agent pool and don’t want to dive into the deep end but yet get a difference-maker, I can see one out there. And this is based off salary projections from an article this week in the New York Post.
Pitchers that could be out of the Orioles' reach and/or comfort level and be in line for at least $100 million or close, per that article, are Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez.
But the outlet listed free agent right-hander Sonny Gray at a price tag that could be in the wheelhouse for the Orioles and a lot of other teams. The paper quoted expert No. 1 and expert No. 2, who I assume are front office execs in the sport. One projected that Gray would get a three-year deal worth $65 million and another put it at three years and $66 million.
Gray is coming off a fantastic year with the Minnesota Twins during which he went 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 184 innings over 32 starts. He ranked second in the American League and third in the majors in ERA, and was fourth in the AL in average against (.226), third in OPS (.607 behind Kyle Bradish at .605) and fifth in groundball rate.
When the Orioles took the field for Game 1 of the American League Division Series, we would be watching the eventual World Series champion. It just would not be the team in Orange and Black.
But the Texas Rangers, a team that lost 102 games in 2021 and went 68-94 last year. A team that won just 90 games this year and a team that from Aug. 16-Sept. 8 went 4-16 and was outscored by 61 runs. Yep, that team. A team that went 1-3 on the season’s final weekend to let the AL West get away and enter the playoffs as the No. 5 AL seed.
The Rangers had a losing record on the road during the regular season, going 40-41. So of course, they went 11-0 on the road in the playoffs. They had a losing record in one-run games (14-22) during the regular year. So of course, they went 3-1 in one-run games during the postseason and 2-0 in two-run games. A team that entered the postseason with the bullpen ranked 11th in the AL. And of course, during the postseason, the trio of Jose Leclerc, Aroldis Chapman and Josh Sborz pitched to a combined 2.14 ERA.
Remember when we thought the O’s might find an edge in that while Texas’ team OPS at home ranked first in the AL, they were just seventh on the road.
The Rangers this year had the 10th-best team ERA in the American League at 4.28. That is 10th as in better than just five clubs. We should all remember that the next time someone says the O’s pitching is not good enough to win the WS.
Recently I wrote here about some players that were surprises this year for the Orioles as they made their way to an AL East title. On the farm there always seem to be a few surprises, if for no reason other than we have more teams and players to choose from.
This year was no different, but I think two of the biggest surprises on the farm were two players that both ended their years with Double-A Bowie in outfielder Billy Cook and right-handed pitcher Alex Pham.
Both ended the year in the O’s top 30 via MLBPipeline.com with Cook at No. 27 and Pham at No. 29. Cook is currently unranked by Baseball America, but Pham made it all the way to No. 17 via BA.
They were players on the rise during the 2023 season and both are hidden gems no more. They’ve found their way onto the radar and will be watched closely in 2024.
Both were college draft selections in the 2021 MLB Draft – Cook out of Pepperdine in round 10 and Pham in round 19 out of San Francisco. So, neither will need to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from the Rule 5 draft until the Rule 5 draft in 2024.
When the Orioles played the Texas Rangers in the American League Division Series, O’s shortstop Gunnar Henderson was in the opposite dugout from a player he has been compared to for several years.
The comps started well before Henderson would be selected No. 42 overall by the Orioles in the June 2019 MLB Draft. That big kid at shortstop from Alabama’s John T. Morgan Academy in Selma was compared to then Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager, who had been the 2016 National League Rookie of the Year.
In the 2012 MLB Draft, the Dodgers had selected Seager No. 18 overall out of a North Carolina high school. He was named NL ROY in his age 22 season. Henderson, who turned 22 in June, is the heavy favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award later this month.
The Henderson-Seager comps are still out there.
In early September, in a very flattering article on the Orioles for Sports Illustrated, Tom Verducci wrote that “Henderson has hit more homers (23) already than any 22-and-under rookie shortstop except Cal Ripken (28), Corey Seager (26) and Troy Tulowitzki (24). He is Seager with a better glove and more speed,” said Verducci.
In most World Series we can probably find an ex-Oriole or two or three to watch play on baseball’s biggest stage. Among the former Birds in this World Series is one of the real good guys, Arizona first baseman Christian Walker. He has found a home in Arizona since they acquired him in March of 2017 and the last two years he has hit 69 homers.
While he has not had a great offensive performance this postseason, he is a middle-of-the-order fixture for the 2023 National League champs. When the Orioles were in Arizona in early September, I caught up with Walker, someone I had interview numerous times when he was trying to work his way through the O’s minors.
Baltimore drafted him in round four of 2012 out of the University of South Carolina, where he was on two NCAA championship clubs. He was often ranked among the O’s top 20 prospects and went as high as their No. 3 prospect in 2015 via Baseball America.
But with the Orioles he had Chris Davis in front of him at first base and when the club signed Davis to the long-term contract before the 2016 season that kind of sealed his fate with the organization. Walker wound up getting just 27 at-bats with the big club over parts of the 2014-2015 seasons. After the Davis contract was final, the club moved him to the outfield at Triple-A for the 2016 season. But that did not lead him back to Baltimore.
The Orioles DFA'd him on Feb. 21, 2017 and four days later Atlanta added him via waivers. About 10 days later, Cincinnati added him and about three weeks later, on March 28, 2017, Arizona claimed him off waivers. Yep, he was with four teams in about six weeks.
With the Orioles set to play the entire 2024 season without closer Félix Bautista, which pitchers replace him in the ninth inning and how well they do next year will have a lot to say about the O’s team performance for the year.
Obviously, we don’t know yet the makeup of the 2024 bullpen and if the team will look to acquire via trade or free agency someone that could pitch the ninth. But one pitcher that will be in that late-inning mix is right-hander Yennier Cano, mentioned in this space yesterday as a player that surprised us in the 2023 season.
He sure did. He was not even on the Opening Day roster and in the 2022 season, between the Twins and Orioles in brief action, he had posted an 11.50 ERA and 2.333 WHIP. Then that same guy began his 2023 O’s season with 17 straight scoreless outings. That is about as surprising as it can get.
After Cano became more hittable in the second half – somewhat expected when you are almost unhittable – he no doubt has some doubters entering the winter.
But let’s look at some numbers first.
On their way to 101 wins, an American League East championship and the club's first playoff berth since 2016, the Orioles featured several players who had strong seasons ranging from good to great. Some were expected, some came as surprises. Some were big surprises.
Yennier Cano: No one, I mean no one, could have predicted that Cano, who was not even on the Opening Day roster, would begin his season with 17 consecutive scoreless appearances.
They were not just scoreless, impressive in itself. They were completely dominant.
He was almost unhittable from his April 14 season debut through May 19. Over 21 2/3 scoreless, Cano allowed just four hits with no walks and 25 strikeouts. He allowed an .061 batting average and .150 OPS against.
Cano tied the club record set by Fred Holdsworth in 1976 by setting down the first 24 batters he faced to start the season in order. He set the O’s record with 32 hitless at-bats to begin a season, the most by a major league pitcher since Milwaukee's Josh Hader (35) to begin 2020. His streak of 20 straight games without a walk to start the season was the second-longest in O’s history, behind a 22-game streak by Jamie Walker to open the 2009 campaign.
In one sense it was a bit unexpected that an O’s pitching staff that performed so well in the second half of the 2023 season would perform poorly in the playoffs. But they gave up 21 runs as Texas swept the Orioles in three games. They gave up 18 in the last two games as starters Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer combined to allow 11 runs in 3 1/3 innings.
Texas is a good hitting team, but Orioles pitchers seemed to be hitting their stride the longer the season went on. This time Texas got the better of them.
For the 2023 season, the O’s team ERA was 3.89 to rank fifth-best in the American League. Baltimore was just a few points behind third-place Tampa Bay's 3.86 and a bit further back of first-place Minnesota's 3.74.
In the first half of the season Orioles pitching went 54-35 (.607) with a 4.15 ERA. In the second half the staff went 47-26 (.644) with a 3.58 ERA of 3.58 that was first in the AL and third in the major leagues. The O's played at a 104-win pace after the All-Star game.
The O’s team ERA by month in 2023:
Maybe it was the appetizer before the main course. Three members of the Orioles picked up awards via the Sporting News yesterday. Once considered the key authority and publication on baseball, these awards have been handed out by TSN since 1936.
For the second year in a row, Brandon Hyde was named American League Manager of the Year by the outlet. Gunnar Henderson was named AL Rookie of the Year and Mike Elias was named MLB Executive of the Year.
So, Baltimore gets honors for the front office, dugout and clubhouse. Not bad and well deserved after 101 wins and an AL East championship.
All three could win similar honors from other outlets.
The sport's official awards so to speak, from the Baseball Writers' Association of America, come out next month. This year I voted for AL Manager of the Year, and we are asked not to reveal how we voted until the awards are announced.
Major League Baseball moved to a 12-team playoff field, six from each league, for the 2022 season. We have just two years under the new format.
But after the Orioles pushed so hard and worked so hard for so long to hold off Tampa Bay and win the AL East, they would join three other teams that had five days off getting byes in the wild card round, by losing in the Division Series.
In two years under this format, teams that won 100 or more games have gone 1-5 in the Division Series.
Last year the top seeds were Houston and the New York Yankees in the AL and Atlanta and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL. They went a combined 2-2 in the Division Series.
This year the top seeds were Baltimore, Houston, Atlanta and the Dodgers and they went 1-3 in the DS.
The 2023 season got off to a good start for the Orioles' Ryan Mountcastle. But it didn’t stay that way. On April 11 at Camden Yards, he tied a team single-game record with nine RBIs versus the Athletics. He homered twice in the game and hit a grand slam. An Oriole with nine RBIs had happened before just twice since the team moved to Baltimore in 1954. Jim Gentile drove in nine runs May 9, 1961 at Minnesota. And Eddie Murray did the same on Aug. 26, 1985 at California.
“Two greats,” Mountcastle told reporters that night of the first nine-RBI game in the majors since 2020. “To tie them in, I guess, any category is super special, pretty cool.”
So that was a special game and Mounty looked prime to have a big year.
And then he struggled and struggled some more. In early June, we learned he was dealing with the effects of vertigo, and he didn’t play again until July 9. When he took the field that day, he was batting .227 for the year with an OPS of .686.
Fans were not only questioning his presence in the lineup daily but also his future on the team in the long term. His critics seemed vast and were loud. When the season ended, we heard the sounds of mostly silence.
For the Baltimore Orioles - a division champion coming off 101 wins, a team with higher expectations than they've had in years and a team with a talented young roster - it's nice to have options.
And I don't mean player options, although that roster flexibility is always important for any club.
No, I mean options for the front office. I mean choices. As they look to improve this club there are a lot of different directions they can go to look to do that.
There were no glaring weaknesses on the 2023 Orioles. There are no areas that you can say this team better have this or that or they won't win again.
One of the strengths of the '23 club was that it had a lot of strengths. They were good home and road. They were strong in close games. They scored the fourth most runs in the AL and finished fifth in team ERA. They finished first in team ERA in the second half. The defense featured playmakers. They even ran the bases pretty well. They had plenty of young talent and more is on the way.
The Orioles averaged 4.98 runs per game in the 2023 season to rank fourth in the American League and seventh-best in the majors among the 30 teams.
Only six teams this year averaged 5.00 runs per game or better for the full year. The Orioles came up just short of that scoring 807. That was seventh-most in team history and the most since the 2004 O's team scored 842.
Here are the six teams that outscored the Orioles this year.
5.85 - Atlanta
5.59 - Los Angeles Dodgers
5.44 - Texas
5.31 - Tampa Bay
5.10 - Houston
5.06 - Chicago Cubs
The Orioles were keeping pretty good company being among this group. Had they scored just three more runs to finish with 810, they would have averaged exactly 5.00 runs per game.
Yes, it is the first time this offseason that we put some specific questions your way. Every day here is an open forum for topics on the Orioles. Today we get a bit more specific about it.
It was quite the season for Birdland in 2023. And while there is disappointment with the playoffs still going on without Baltimore, there is plenty of optimism for more winning in the future.
The O's went 101-61 to finish with the second-best record in the majors and best record in the American League for the first time since 1997. The 101 wins tied the 1971 Orioles for fourth-most in club history. The O's posted back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2013-2014. The Orioles won their 10th AL East title.
“It was a really successful season," said manager Brandon Hyde at his season-ending press conference. "You know, overcoming so many odds and obstacles that were against us and so many people thinking that we weren’t going to be a playoff team. Then all of a sudden we win 101 games and the American League East. That says a lot about a lot of people in the organization and the guys in our clubhouse. So, really proud of that.
“We had so many awesome moments. Huge wins. And close wins. And the amount of close games we played was ridiculous. And how we won some games during the season, it was just a total team effort, and that was how we played all year. The postseason, we just didn’t play our best and ran into a little bit of a buzz saw, but I’m going to have great memories of this team.”
On an Orioles team that produced 101 wins, their first 100-win year since 1980, along with making the postseason for the first time since 2016 and winning the division for the first time since 2014, several veteran players made key contributions.
But the Orioles have five free agents and all five could be playing somewhere else in the 2024 season. Infielder Adam Frazier played in 141 games and had an OPS of just .696, but that number was .932 with runners in scoring position. Outfielder Aaron Hicks is a free agent also but his OPS was .806 in 65 O’s games.
On the pitching side, right-hander Kyle Gibson is a free agent after leading the team with 15 wins, 33 starts and 192 innings. He tied for third in the AL in wins and was sixth in innings. He was a leader in the clubhouse and outside of it as seen by his Roberto Clemente Award nomination. The guy sure gives back – within the clubhouse and outside of it.
I see value in having Gibson back on the team to provide pitching depth. I just have concerns of a price tag of $10 million or more for such depth. Hard to put a dollar figure on what his mentorship for young pitchers and leadership for all players meant. But the club might have to look somewhere else for the same thing next year if they decide to try and get what he brings at a lower price.
Pitchers Jack Flaherty and Shintaro Fujinami are also free agents. It’s hard to see a scenario where the club pursues Flaherty, but maybe there is one out there. Fuji was given every chance to hold down a spot in high-leverage relief and spent a few nights looking like a steal. And a few looking like much less than that. I say the O’s let him walk and look for more consistency elsewhere, even if it comes in a package that doesn’t feature a 100 mph fastball.
Maybe even the Pecota projection system will expect the Orioles to be good in the 2024 season. Yeah, crazy talk, I know.
When the 2024 season begins the Orioles will have an opponent that is hard to define and one that has no win-loss record or playoff appearances. There are no advanced stats or metrics for it. It is expectations.
For the first time in a long time the team will be expected to do well and maybe even favored to win the AL East. This is uncharted territory for the Orioles in recent years.
Even the 2023 team, which had a stated goal to take the 83 wins from the year before, build on that and make the playoffs, had plenty of doubters.
The scores of the games will tell us that the Orioles offense had its problems late in the 2023 season. They scored two runs or less seven times in the last 11 regular-season games. They did that twice more in the American League Division Series as they scored three runs total in games one and three.
But if we were to judge this offense over the full season, it likely ends up getting decent or better grades. Unless you consider ranking fourth in the American League and seventh in MLB at 4.98 runs per game not good enough. It was not good enough to be first or the best, but it was better than most. It was well above the AL average of 4.55 runs per game.
The average AL team scored 738 runs this year. The Orioles scored 807. That was seventh-most in team history and the most since the 2004 O's team scored 842.
So, in the best stat to judge offense, they scored well.
The Orioles ranked sixth in the AL in team batting average (.255), tied for seventh in OBP (.321), seventh in slugging (.421) and eighth in OPS (.742).
According to the Orioles postseason media guide there are seven hitters in the American League the last two years that have produced 250+ hits, 150+ runs, 100+ walks, and 60+ homers.
The list includes Houston’s Yordan Álvarez, Boston’s Rafael Devers, Adolis García and Corey Seager of Texas, the New York Yankees Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles and one other player. The Orioles’ Anthony Santander. That is one solid group of hitters he is keeping company with.
For me being on that list and for other good reasons, makes it a no brainer that Santander is offered salary arbitration by the Orioles this winter, as his salary is due to rise from $7.4 million this year to $12.7 million next season via MLBTradeRumors.com projections.
There may have been a time a few years ago that Santander would have priced himself out of Baltimore at that dollar amount. But barring something that would be a real stunner, this is not that time. They still need this guy.
There may have been a time when a player just one year before free agency – as Santander is now – might look to be traded by the club. Get something for him before he can leave, is that thinking. But don’t they need this bat right now? Even, in a worst-case scenario and he did leave via free agency after the 2024 season, don’t the Orioles badly need Santander to keep winning next year? To make another postseason run?
Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees might not like it, but Orioles fans are probably growing to like the deeper dimensions in left field at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Over two years now, it has produced fewer homers and ended the day of the so-called cheap homer to left center. But it also has led to more O’s wins. The 2022 team, coming off 110 losses, went 45-36 at home. That club was eighth in the AL in home ERA at 3.73 and fifth scoring 4.23 runs per game at Oriole Park.
The 2023 club went 49-32 at home, third-best in the AL. The team ERA ranked sixth at 3.82 and the O’s scored 4.47 runs per game at home, which was eighth in the league.
At his season-ending press conference, O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias was asked about the wall. Could it be changed or altered in the coming years?
“Look I’m glad we did it,” said Elias. “It coincided with winning baseball in Baltimore and a better style of baseball which is kind of one of the things we talked about it. Is it perfect? Is it the exact perfect dimensions? Does it look perfect and is it going to stay that way forever? No, and I don’t know.
