As they sought reasons for optimism one year ago, the Nationals knew they could point to the development of their young players, the potential bounce-back performances of some veterans and improved defense (especially around the infield).
They also hoped Major League Baseball’s new schedule format would make a positive difference.
The 2022 Nats were bad at everything, but they were especially bad at beating their division rivals. They finished an atrocious 17-59 against the NL East, a .224 winning percentage that was the worst by any big-league club since division play began in 1969.
Ah, but in 2023 the schedule underwent its most dramatic makeover since interleague play debuted in 1997. For the first time in baseball history, every NL team would play every AL team in at least one three-game series.
The domino effect of that increase in interleague play: A dramatic drop in intra division games, from 76 (19 vs. each opponent) to 52 (13 vs. each opponent). And boy did the Nationals benefit from that.
To their credit, they did improve on their own against the NL East, finishing 19-33. Not that a .365 winning percentage is anything to brag about, but it was still way better than the .224 mark from the prior year.
And they performed better than that against everybody else. They went 14-19 against the NL Central, a .424 winning percentage. They went 15-16 against the NL West, a .484 winning percentage. And they went 23-23 against the AL, posting a solid .500 mark in interleague play.
So, the new schedule helped. Now it’s incumbent upon the Nationals to start winning more games against the teams they face the most.
It’s no secret how far they’ve lagged behind the rest of the NL East for several years now. Four straight last-place finishes is some pretty concrete evidence.
For the Nats to climb out of the basement in 2024, they’re simply going to have to start beating the teams they’re trying to pass in the standings.
Now, that’s a stiff challenge, given the current state of competition in the NL East. The Braves won 104 games last season and look to be just as good, if not better this season. The Phillies won 90 games and were one win away from back-to-back trips to the World Series. The Marlins surprisingly won 84 games and qualified for the playoffs for the first time in a full MLB season since 2003. And the Mets … well, as disastrous as their season was, they still won four more games than the Nats and are under intense pressure to turn that around this year.
Oddly enough, though, the Nationals did OK against the Braves last season, going 5-8 in head-to-head matchups with the six-time defending division champs. If they manage to win just one more game this year against them, they’ll essentially be playing them to a draw.
The Nationals did fine against the Phillies and Mets, as well, going 6-7 against each of them. Even slight improvement there would produce a winning record against those two rivals this season.
The biggest hurdle, strangely enough, remains those pesky Marlins, who beat the Nats in 11-of-13 head-to-head matchups in 2023. This after winning 15-of-19 matchups in 2022.
Miami has flat-out owned the Nationals for two years now, and there’s no good explanation for it. There is some talent gap there, but not so much to merit such a lopsided outcome.
If the Nationals really want to take a consequential step forward in 2024 and escape the NL East basement for the first time since 2019, they best thing they could do is simply start beating the Marlins. If, instead of going 2-11 against them last season, they went 8-5, the Nats would’ve finished one game behind Miami instead of 13.
Yes, there are plenty of larger-scale ways the 2024 Nationals can – and perhaps will – be better. But if they can merely play respectable baseball against an opponent they should be able to play respectable baseball against, that seemingly small difference could actually make a major difference in the standings.