It’s never a good idea to infer regular season performance based on spring training numbers, but in the case of Josiah Gray there seemed to be some valid reason to believe what he did in Florida in March could translate into what he would do in Washington in April.

Not the 0.55 ERA Gray posted in Grapefruit League play, as impressive as that looked. No, the primary reason the Nationals were excited about Gray entering his season debut today was the fact he issued only two walks and did not surrender a home run in 16 2/3 innings of exhibition baseball. Given how much of problem both were for the right-hander last year, this felt like a good omen.

Well, it did for all of six pitches this afternoon.

Back-to-back homers to open the game set an ominous tone for Gray, who would allow a third before departing after five roughshod innings during a 7-1 thrashing at the hands of the Braves.

Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson did the damage in the first two minutes of the first inning, leaving Gray shell-shocked and a still-arriving crowd of 27,529 wondering what exactly just happened.

Davey Martinez admitted this spring he might be trotting out different-looking lineups on a daily basis, based on matchups, lefty-righty splits and other assorted information. Whether the Nationals manager realized all along how different his Game 1 and Game 2 lineups would look is a valid question.

The lineup card Martinez submitted for this afternoon’s game against the Braves features eight of the same names that started on Opening Day, with only Corey Dickerson replacing Alex Call in left field. But only one of those eight players is actually batting in the same location: Joey Meneses, who again gets the No. 2 slot.

“We’re going to have to mix and match a little bit this year,” Martinez admitted during his pregame session with reporters. “The one thing I do like is having Joey in the 2-hole. Because if we do have someone that needs to get that last at-bat (in the ninth inning), I want to make sure he gets it.”

The most notable change from Thursday is at the top of the lineup. Luis García, who batted seventh in the opener, is leading off today, flip-flopping with Lane Thomas.

García did get several opportunities to lead off in spring training, and he also did it eight times last season. A notorious free-swinger who owns one of the lowest walk rates in the league, the 22-year-old doesn’t exactly profile as a typical leadoff man. Martinez, though, specifically liked him batting first today against Braves starter Spencer Strider.

There are few days on the baseball calendar as frustrating as the off-day following Opening Day. It’s unfortunately tradition, though, included to serve as a fallback option for the season opener in case of bad weather. When the weather’s fine, all it does is give everyone way too much time to overanalyze Game 1 before turning attention to Game 2.

The Nationals and Braves can finally focus on that next game now, with first pitch on South Capitol Street scheduled for 4:05 p.m. The Nats will hope to bounce back from a rough 7-2 loss that included bad defense, laborious starting pitching and very little clutch hitting.

Josiah Gray will have to be more efficient than Patrick Corbin was. The young right-hander was outstanding all spring, so he should enter this start with renewed confidence. But he’ll have to work really hard to keep the ball in the yard against a power-laden Braves lineup that will try to take advantage of a strong wind blowing straight out to center field once the rain clears out this afternoon.

The Nationals will hope some familiarity with Spencer Strider leads to some success. The flamethrowing right-hander made two starts in D.C. last summer. He dominated the first one, allowing one hit (a Luis García homer) while striking out 11 in 5 2/3 innings. But then the Nats got to him for five runs in four innings one month later, so perhaps they’ve got a better book on him now.

ATLANTA BRAVES at WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Where: Nationals Park
Gametime: 4:05 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: 106.7 FM, MLB.com
Weather: Rain ending, 73 degrees, wind 21 mph out to center field

Bryce Harper was the first to coin the phrase, way back on Sept. 23, 2012 when the then-rookie outfielder lost a fly ball in the sun during an afternoon game at Nationals Park.

“You can’t catch what you can’t see, you know?” Harper said that day. “Nothing you can do about it. Sun Monster got me.”

And for the last decade, anyone who has closely watched the Nationals has known to beware the Sun Monster every September. He comes out like clockwork, just as the summer humidity dissipates and the afternoon sun moves into a lower position above the upper deck at the ballpark.

In Thursday’s season opener, though, the Sun Monster made an extremely rare, late-March appearance, wreaking as much havoc on players in the field for both the Nats and Braves as perhaps it ever has.

It happened during the Nationals’ very first plate appearance of the season. Lane Thomas’ top-of-the-first popup into shallow center field appeared to make for an easy catch for either shortstop Orlando Arcia or center fielder Michael Harris II. But when Arcia called off his teammate and reached up to make the play, he recoiled in horror when he couldn’t locate the ball, which landed harmlessly on the grass for a cheap single.

Opening Day didn't produce the outcome Nationals fans wanted, but it contained no shortage of storylines. Patrick Corbin's labored start. CJ Abrams' three errors. Joey Meneses' two hits. Victor Robles' two walks. Stephen Strasburg's absence.

And because tradition is to schedule an off-day after the season opener just in case of a rainout, we have nothing to do today but completely overanalyze and overreact to everything that happened Thursday on South Capitol Street.

So let's take the opportunity to look back at Opening Day and what may be coming now the rest of the weekend and beyond. Submit your questions in the comments section below, then check back for responses throughout the morning. ...

If there is going to be a semi-regular formula for the Nationals to win ballgames in 2023, it will almost certainly have to include clean defense from a revamped infield, quality pitching from a deep bullpen and timely hitting from a lineup that hits for contact better than for power.

Maybe they can pull out some curly Ws when they achieve two of those three goals. But to expect it when they only get one of them right? That’s a tall ask, as they learned this afternoon.

Despite hanging around with the defending division champions until things fell apart in the ninth, the Nationals were left to accept a 7-2 Opening Day loss to the Braves that was defined by sloppy defense and a lack of clutch hitting.

"I could tell you now, they were a little bit nervous," manager Davey Martinez said of his relatively inexperienced team. "I was a little nervous. It's part of it."

Three errors by shortstop CJ Abrams proved costly, as did a 1-for-11 showing by Nats hitters with runners in scoring position. Those combined to undermine a strong showing by the bullpen, which churned out five scoreless innings after a laboring Patrick Corbin was pulled in the top of the fourth, with only Kyle Finnegan faltering during a three-run top of the ninth that turned a close game lopsided.

In setting their Opening Day roster this morning, the Nationals officially placed six players on the injured list, including Stephen Strasburg.

Strasburg (thoracic outlet syndrome), Cade Cavalli (Tommy John surgery), Tanner Rainey (Tommy John surgery) and Victor Arano (right shoulder strain) all were placed on the 60-day IL. Those moves cleared up four spots on the 40-man roster, which went to the four players who made the club off minor-league deals: Chad Kuhl, Michael Chavis, Anthony Banda and Hobie Harris.

Carter Kieboom (right shoulder impingement) and Israel Pineda (right finger fracture) were placed on the 10-day IL, though neither is expected to be ready to return in such little time. Kieboom, who is still coming back from Tommy John surgery last year, has only been able to DH in minor league spring games. Pineda, who was struck by a foul ball in early March, has resumed throwing but was not yet hitting when camp concluded.

Though Strasburg’s inclusion on the 60-day IL was no surprise, the transaction does underscore the right-hander’s current predicament. Unable to throw off a mound without discomfort since making his one and only start last season, he is currently not participating in any baseball activities.

General manager Mike Rizzo said he met in person Wednesday with Strasburg, whose locker remains full of gear even though he was not present at spring training and won’t be at the ballpark for the season opener.

It’s a beautiful (if a bit chilly) day for baseball in the nation’s capital, where the 2023 season begins when the Nationals take the field shortly after 1 p.m. to host the Braves. This is expected to be another long season featuring far more losses than wins, but if you can’t be optimistic on Opening Day, what’s the point?

The Nats had all kinds of trouble against the Braves last season, going 5-14 while being outscored 116-67. (To be fair, they had all kinds of trouble with everyone from the National League East last season.) Patrick Corbin in particular was awful in his four matchups with them, going 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA and 2.372 WHIP. Oof. Suffice it to say, the veteran left-hander has his hands full this afternoon. His goal: Go as far as he can, and just keep his team in the game.

On the bright side, the Nationals did have some modest success against Max Fried last season, scoring 10 runs on 20 hits over 18 innings vs. the Atlanta left-hander. They'll hope to continue some of that this afternoon with a new-look lineup that isn't heavy on power but does have some contact and speed to work with.

ATLANTA BRAVES at WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Where: Nationals Park
Gametime: 1:05 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: 106.7 FM, MLB.com
Weather: Sunny, 48 degrees, wind 8 mph in from left field

NATIONALS
RF Lane Thomas
DH Joey Meneses
3B Jeimer Candelario
1B Dominic Smith
C Keibert Ruiz
LF Alex Call
2B Luis García
CF Victor Robles
SS CJ Abrams

It’s Opening Day, and you know what that means? Yes, it’s time for the 14th annual Nationals Beat Writer Season Predictions!

A few of the participants have remained constant through the years. A few have come and gone and come back. And a few are still relatively new to the festivities. All of us, however, will most certainly make fools of ourselves with some of our predictions.

There’s actually a decent range of guesses in most categories this year, with general consensus in only a few of them. (Josiah Gray, apparently, is a lock to win exactly 11 games this season. Who knew?)

Everlasting thanks to my colleagues for subjecting themselves to the humiliation again. Remember, we’ll be republishing these at the end of the season to find out who actually had a clue and who did not.

And if you’re brave enough to put your (screen) name on your own predictions, you are more than welcome to share those in the comments section below …

The Nationals won 55 games last season, fewest in club history. They were outscored by an astounding 252 runs. They had the majors’ worst rotation, hit the fewest homers in the National League and gave up the most. They ranked at or near the bottom in most defensive metrics. They also traded a once-in-a-generation, 22-year-old star for prospects.

It was, by any measure, an awful season.

Which means there’s nowhere to go but up, right?

The 2023 Nationals have to be better. The pitching has to be better. The defense has to be better. The lineup has to be … uh, we’ll get back to that topic in a moment.

We don’t know how the next six months are going to play out. There are any number of unpredictable factors that could help or hurt the team’s fortunes. Here’s what we do know: The 2023 Nats are younger. They’re more athletic. They feature more potential pieces to the long-term puzzle than the previous team did.

Spring training is over. The Nationals packed their bags after Sunday’s 2-2 tie against the Marlins and took their charter flight home to D.C. as the somewhat-proud owners of a 12-12-3 record in Grapefruit League play. (Hey, after going 4-11 last year en route to 55-107 in the regular season, any hint of success is ready to be proud.)

There’s one more exhibition to play Tuesday afternoon against the Yankees at Nationals Park. Then the Braves arrive for Thursday’s 2023 season opener, and we’re off and running.

We touched on a whole lot of topics over the last six weeks, some more frequently than others. So consider this something of an exercise in course correction. Too often we pay too much attention to something in spring training that doesn’t matter much in the regular season. And conversely, too often we ignore a subject that absolutely proves significant over the ensuing six months.

So as everyone gets settled in to their homes and apartments and looks ahead to Opening Day, let’s run through some topics we perhaps made too big a deal out of this spring, and some others we might have glossed over …

TOO BIG A DEAL: THE ROTATION
The primary topic of spring training, for better or worse, is always going to be starting pitching. Those are the guys who need the most work to get ready for the season. They’re the ones who are going to draw the most attention. And after the Nationals rotation went a horrific 30-86 with a 5.97 ERA last season, this revamped unit was always going to be the center of attention this spring. In the end, these guys will probably be fine. Yes, Cade Cavalli’s Tommy John surgery was a huge blow. But Josiah Gray looked great this spring, MacKenzie Gore flashed his ability to dominate, Patrick Corbin looked serviceable and Trevor Williams looked like a nice addition. This isn’t going to morph into anything close to a club strength, but it really shouldn’t be a disaster this year like it was last year.

JUPITER, Fla. – The 0.55 spring ERA, to be sure, is really nice. So is the 0.918 WHIP. It would be hard for Josiah Gray and the Nationals to look at those numbers as camp wraps up and not be pleased.

The spring stats that really stood out to Gray, though, were the two that showed dramatic improvement from his 2022 season.

“Walks,” he said. “I think walks are the biggest one. If I can keep those down, that puts me in a really good position early on. … And then we all know the home run ball. Just being able to limit that is obviously going to take away the biggest negative play for a pitcher. So those two are big.”

Gray, for those who don’t remember, surrendered a major-league-high 38 home runs last season while issuing a National League-high 66 walks. It proved to be a deadly combination that turned what at times looked like a promising campaign into a frustrating one for the young right-hander.

It’s spring training, of course, so this comes with all the usual caveats. But over the course of five starts and 16 1/3 innings this spring, Gray issued only two walks and did not surrender any homers.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Matt Adams is going to fly home with the Nationals tonight, play in Tuesday’s exhibition finale against the Yankees and attend the team’s annual charity gala that evening. And then, if he doesn’t get a big league offer from another organization, the veteran slugger will report to Triple-A Rochester and hope he gets called up sometime this season.

Adams came to this conclusion Saturday night after consultation with his wife and his agent, hours after he was informed by manager Davey Martinez he wasn’t going to make the Opening Day roster despite a strong showing at the plate throughout spring training.

“It’s tough to hear, especially coming in and doing everything I possibly could to put myself in the position to possibly have my name called to be on the roster,” the 34-year-old said. “But I totally understand. I can walk away with my head held high. I’m very proud of the way I came in and handled myself, and the way I went about my business, the teammate that I was and all the knowledge I gave to the younger guys. That was a blast. It was a lot of fun. I’m going to just continue to put the uniform on and play the game that I love.”

A member of the Nationals’ 2019 World Series roster, Adams hasn’t been a regular in the big leagues since. He played in 16 games for the Braves in 2020, 22 games for the Rockies in 2021 and then spent the entire 2022 season playing independent ball in Kansas City.

After sending letters to all 30 clubs over the winter, Adams was given a chance to come back to the Nationals this spring as a non-roster invitee. With a new perspective on his career – he said he fell back in love with the game last season – he looked good at the plate, batting .333 (13-for-39) with five doubles and a home run.

JUPITER, Fla. – And so we have reached the end of the road, the final game of spring training. The Nationals, for those who care about such things, have actually fared pretty well down here, going 12-11-2 in official Grapefruit League play. A win today over the Marlins would secure a winning spring record, if that’s worth anything.

Josiah Gray gets the ball for his final tune-up before his expected season debut April 1 against the Braves. Like Patrick Corbin on Saturday night, Gray will probably be pulled early, not needing to use up any unnecessary pitches before it counts for real.

Most of the regulars are in the lineup, aside from Corey Dickerson and Luis García. The relievers on the schedule to pitch after Gray (in no particular order) are Carl Edwards Jr., Kyle Finnegan, Mason Thompson, Thaddeus Ward and Hobie Harris.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. MIAMI MARLINS
Where: Roger Dean Stadium
Gametime: 1:05 p.m. EDT
TV: None
Radio: MLB.com (Marlins broadcast)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 85 degrees, wind 14 mph out to left field

NATIONALS
RF Lane Thomas
DH Joey Meneses
3B Jeimer Candelario
1B Dominic Smith
LF Alex Call
C Keibert Ruiz
2B Ildemaro Vargas
SS CJ Abrams
CF Victor Robles

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – All of the decisions, for the most part, have already been made. There’s not much-left anyone can do to make or break his chances of making the Opening Day roster.

So consider tonight’s penultimate Grapefruit League game – a 6-1 loss to the Astros – a true exhibition, one in which the only real goal was to play nine innings, get any necessary work in and avoid injury.

The Nationals accomplished all of that, so who cares about the end result? (Though it does leave them with a tenuous 12-11-2 record heading into Sunday’s finale, needing a win over the Marlins to finish the spring over .500.)

Patrick Corbin, whose next start in five days will kick off the regular season, did what he needed to do in his final tune-up. The left-hander, who had already been stretched out to six innings in his previous outing, was held to four innings and 60 pitches. He allowed four runs (three earned) on six hits, making a couple of mistakes but also victimized by some shaky defense behind him.

“I felt command was pretty good,” he said. “Maybe a couple pitches were up, but I got some swings-and-misses on changeups and sliders. Overall, I felt pretty good. I’ve just got to throw another bullpen coming up and then get ready for the first game.”

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – The Nationals made six more cuts this afternoon, bringing the number of remaining healthy players in camp down to the requisite 26 but leaving open the possibility of acquiring someone from outside the organization to fill out their bench or bullpen before the Opening Day roster is officially set.

Right-hander Paolo Espino and infielder Jeter Downs were optioned to Triple-A Rochester, while relievers Alex Colomé, Andrés Machado and Wily Peralta were reassigned to minor league camp.

First baseman Matt Adams, meanwhile, was informed he won’t be making the club but is still deciding whether he will accept an invitation from manager Davey Martinez to come with the team to D.C. for Tuesday’s exhibition finale against the Yankees and whether he will report to Rochester or become a free agent.

Those moves seemed to set the Opening Day roster, with infielder Michael Chavis winning the final spot on the bench and Anthony Banda, Thaddeus Ward, Mason Thompson and Hobie Harris filling the last four spots in the bullpen. But Martinez insisted the roster is not set in stone yet and said he has not informed any of those players they’ve made the club yet.

“There’s no set roster right now,” Martinez said. “We still have decisions to make. We probably won’t make any decisions until we go back to D.C.”

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – We are down to the final 48 hours of spring training. And we are now five days away from the season opener. Which means tonight’s exhibition lineup against the Astros has a distinct Opening Day feel to it.

All of the regulars are in and will play most of the game. The only tweak is that Joey Meneses is again playing left field (so he can continue to get reps after not playing the outfield while in the World Baseball Classic), with Corey Dickerson serving as designated hitter.

Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, is making his final start of the spring. He’ll hope to continue what he did five days ago against the Mets and put himself in a good frame of mind heading into his Opening Day start five days from now against the Braves.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. HOUSTON ASTROS
Where: The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches
Gametime: 6:05 p.m. EDT
TV: MLB.tv (Astros broadcast)
Radio: MLB.com (Astros broadcast)
Weather: Chance of rain late, 82 degrees, wind 14 mph out to left field

NATIONALS
RF Lane Thomas
1B Dominic Smith
LF Joey Meneses
3B Jeimer Candelario
DH Corey Dickerson
2B Luis García
C Keibert Ruiz
SS CJ Abrams
CF Víctor Robles

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – If the Nationals were choosing the final four pitchers to make their Opening Day bullpen based strictly on spring training stats, the decision would be fairly simple.

Andres Machado (zero runs, zero walks in four innings), Hobie Harris (one run, three hits in nine innings), Paolo Espino (one run in eight innings), Thaddeus Ward (four runs, 12 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings) and Mason Thompson (three runs in seven innings) have performed the best among the relievers competing down to the wire.

Alex Colomé (six runs, 19 baserunners in 9 2/3 innings), Anthony Banda (seven runs in 11 innings) and Wily Peralta (12 earned runs, 24 baserunners in 9 2/3 innings) have not.

Opening Day roster decisions, however, aren’t as simple as that. It’s not just about spring training numbers. It’s about track records. It’s about contract statuses. It’s about who has minor league options.

And ultimately, it’s about keeping as many pitchers in your organization as you can, knowing you’re going to need them all at some point during the long season.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Chad Kuhl handed the ball to Davey Martinez with one out in the sixth tonight at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. The right-hander had just surrendered a leadoff homer and then recorded a flyball out to end his outing at 92 pitches, a solid-if-unspectacular outing against a good Cardinals lineup in the final week of spring training.

Kuhl walked back to the Nationals dugout and began thinking about his next start. The question now: Where and when will that start be?

“We’ve got to figure out what we’re going to do here, but he’s done a great job,” Martinez said. “We’re getting close to the season, and we’ve got to make some decisions. But so far, I like what I’ve seen out of him.”

Thrust into the Nats’ rotation plans after Cade Cavalli tore his elbow ligament last week and required Tommy John surgery, Kuhl seems to have done enough to have locked up the No. 5 starter’s job as the season begins.

The Nationals, though, aren’t ready to make any pronouncements about that. There’s still another 11 or 12 days to go until they’ll need a fifth starter, so that leaves them with some flexibility as they wind up camp.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – What had become clear in recent weeks became official today: Patrick Corbin will start Opening Day for the Nationals.

It’s not exactly an inspired choice, considering the left-hander’s immense struggles the last three years. But under the circumstances, the team felt it was the right choice, taking pressure off younger starters Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore in favor of a veteran who won’t be fazed by the moment.

“I’ve said this before: I’ve never gotten down on Patrick,” manager Davey Martinez said. “We know what he can do at any given time. He worked really hard over the winter, came to spring training in great shape, had a plan and he’s been pitching well. So he’s going to get the ball Opening Day.”

Corbin will take the mound shortly after 1 p.m. Thursday to face the Braves, who are starting fellow lefty Max Fried. He’ll do so on the heels of the worst season of his career, and statistically the worst season by any major league starter in 2022.

Owner of a 6-19 record, 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP last year, Corbin doesn’t exactly look the part of an Opening Day starter. But he’s had the assignment twice before, in 2018 for the Diamondbacks and 2022 for the Nats. He has seniority on the staff now with Max Scherzer gone and Stephen Strasburg unable to return from thoracic outlet surgery. And he has the support of his manager, which matters to the 33-year-old.