If there’s only one player the Nationals are likely to pursue this winter, it’s an established slugger, preferably one who can play first base.
If there’s a No. 2 item on general manager Mike Rizzo’s wish list, it’s probably an experienced starting pitcher, one who could help lead an otherwise young rotation to better days.
This isn’t earth-shattering news. The next time Rizzo says he’s not looking for starting pitching will be the first time. It’s always a priority.
But the evidence suggests it’s been more of a priority certain years compared to others. Yeah, the Nationals pursued starters last winter. The only one they landed was Zach Davies, who got a minor league contract and then lost a spring training battle for the No. 5 spot in the rotation to Trevor Williams and was cut loose before camp ended.
At the other end of the spectrum, of course, were the major signings of Max Scherzer in 2015 and Patrick Corbin in 2019 to nine-figure deals.
And somewhere in between were the shorter-term contracts given out to good-but-not-great starters over the years: Edwin Jackson (2012), Dan Haren (2013), Anibal Sanchez (2019), Jon Lester (2021).
So which approach are the Nats likely to take this winter? The proof will be in the pudding if and when they actually do sign a pitcher. But there is reason to believe they’re leaning more toward the big-ticket item this time than they have in a while.
With Corbin’s $140 million contract and Trevor Williams’ $15 million contract off the books, and with Stephen Strasburg still earning what’s left of his $245 million deal but officially retired, the Nationals should have the financial ability to get involved in the market for big-name starters. That guarantees nothing, of course. The competition will be stiff, and there’s some reason to wonder if the organization might be a little gun shy about giving out another nine-figure deal to a pitcher when the last two went so wrong.
But there are several big-ticket items available right now, not to mention plenty of second-tier options that could also be appealing to the Nats.
Corbin Burnes is the biggest prize of the winter. Over the last four years with the Brewers and Orioles, he sports a 2.94 ERA and 1.020 WHIP, with more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings and an average of 189 innings pitched per season. He just turned 30, he’s represented by Scott Boras, and he’s about to be paid handsomely.
Blake Snell was the top free agent a year ago but never did get the mega-offer he and Boras sought, instead settling for a one-year, $32 million “pillow contract” with the Giants. The lefty is now back on the market, hoping for a long-term deal after delivering a 3.12 ERA, 1.048 WHIP and 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings over 20 starts.
Fellow left-hander Max Fried is a free agent for the first time at 31 and possesses an excellent resume over parts of eight seasons with the Braves: 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.164 WHIP, having topped 165 innings four times in the last five full major league seasons. (As an added bonus, he’s won three Gold Glove Awards.)
That’s the top tier of free agents, the potential $100 million men. Next up is the second-tier, which isn’t too shabby itself, though most of these guys have some flaws or red flags to consider.
Jack Flaherty is one of the more enigmatic pitchers out there. When he’s good, he’s really good. When he’s not, he’s really not. And we saw both sides of him last month with the Dodgers. His teammate Walker Buehler was brilliant when his team needed him most, but that came after he missed the better part of two years with injuries and struggled to a 5.38 ERA in 16 regular season starts prior to the playoff run.
Nathan Eovaldi has been pretty consistent the last four seasons with the Red Sox and Rangers (3.76 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, average of 152 innings) but is about to turn 35. Nick Pivetta, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino are solid middle-of-the-rotation starters who won’t cost an arm and a leg. Shane Bieber is recovering from Tommy John surgery after making only two (lights-out) starts for the Guardians to begin the year.
Yusei Kikuchi has been a durable big league pitcher for six years, and countryman Roki Sasaki is about to become the most coveted Japanese pitcher in a long time because teams can only spend whatever is left of their international bonus pool to sign the 23-year-old flamethrower, leveling the playing field. (The Nationals, for what it’s worth, have never signed a player straight out of Asia in club history, so that would be a major break from standard practices.)
And then there’s one last name to consider, a guy with as great a track record as anyone but recent history of injury and limited performance as he approached and passed age 40. Scherzer isn’t what he used to be, but would the Nationals consider bringing him back for one final swan song and a chance to mentor the young rotation?
Rizzo surprised us 10 years ago when he signed Mad Max. Wouldn’t that be something if he did it again a decade later?