The Nationals envision three of their recent first-round picks playing a significant role on their major league roster next season, with Dylan Crews leading the way, Cade Cavalli poised to make his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery and Brady House on track to get called up from Triple-A Rochester at some point.
They need major contributions from top draft picks like that after a string of disappointments, something that was underscored this week when two prior first-rounders left the organization for good.
Carter Kieboom and Mason Denaburg were among a host of minor league players who became free agents, joining a list that also included former prospects Israel Pineda and Tim Cate, plus a pair of prospects acquired at the frantic 2021 trade deadline: Aldo Ramirez and Richard Guasch.
Kieboom, the 28th overall pick in the 2016 draft, was supposed to help provide a bridge from the Nationals’ 2019 championship roster to the future, tabbed as Anthony Rendon’s heir apparent at third base. But he never did produce at the big league level, finishing with a .199 batting average, .297 on-base percentage and .301 slugging percentage from 2019-23. He never mastered the third base position, either, after shifting from shortstop, with minus-5 career Defensive Runs Saved and 11 errors in 117 games at the hot corner.
Tommy John surgery also threw a wrench into Kieboom’s career, knocking him out the entire 2022 season. He made it back to the majors late in 2023 and got one final chance to play regularly but did little with that opportunity. He was outrighted off the 40-man roster in March and spent his entire season at Triple-A, batting .265 with seven homers, 42 RBIs and a .751 OPS while ultimately giving way to House at third base.
Denaburg never came close to reaching the big leagues after he was drafted out of high school with the No. 27 pick in 2018. The right-hander was beset by injuries, never reached Double-A and was converted to a reliever last year to no avail. He wound up pitching a grand total of 157 1/3 innings in the minors, going 11-9 with a 6.41 ERA and nearly as many walks (126) as strikeouts (139).
Kieboom and Denaburg are part of a long list of Nationals first-round picks who didn’t pan out over the last decade. None of the organization’s first-rounders since 2014 have produced as much as 1 WAR for the team, with Lucas Giolito (12.5), Erick Fedde (5.3) and Dane Dunning (4.4) all doing their best work for other major league clubs.
The 2016-18 trio of Kieboom, Seth Romero and Denaburg was especially disappointing, with Romero battling injuries and disciplinary actions throughout his career and making it to majors to pitch in only three games in 2020.
The Nationals still hope 2019 first-round pick Jackson Rutledge can have some success in the big leagues, though he has yet to pitch well enough at Triple-A to earn more than a token look in D.C. Meanwhile, 2020 first-round pick Cavalli made only one major league start late in the 2022 season, then missed the last two seasons while attempting to recover from Tommy John surgery.