It doesn’t take tremendous insight to figure out the Nationals’ No. 1 need this winter. They need to add power to a lineup that simply hasn’t had enough of that in recent years.
The Nats ranked 29th in the majors in home runs each of the last two seasons, and their total actually went down from 2023 (151) to 2024 (135). In today’s game, that simply won’t cut it. Six of baseball’s top-seven home run-hitting clubs made the playoffs this year, and none of the bottom six did.
Club officials do have hope for an increase in power production from several key young players, especially James Wood and Dylan Crews as they embark on their first full big league seasons. And if Brady House arrives as expected, the 2021 first round pick should provide some much needed slugging potential as well.
But make no mistake, the Nationals also have to acquire power from outside the organization this offseason. And that has to come from someone closer to the prime of his career than Joey Gallo, Eddie Rosario or Jesse Winker was upon their bargain-basement acquisitions last offseason.
If Mike Rizzo truly has the green light from ownership to pursue bigger name free agents, it stands to reason the longtime general manager will be making his pitch to a number of prominent sluggers seeking employment. And in a perfect world, the slugger the Nats wind up getting would play first base.
It’s been a black hole position for the team since Ryan Zimmerman’s retirement in 2021 and Josh Bell’s trade in 2022. The Nationals got only 16 home runs out of their first basemen in 2023, fourth-worst in the majors. Then they got only 14 in 2024, tied for second-worst in the majors and tied for worst in club history during a full 162-game season.
The good news: There are no shortage of intriguing options on the open market right now, though some could be quite costly.
Pete Alonso headlines the list, and why wouldn’t he? During his six seasons with the Mets, the Polar Bear averaged 38 homers, 98 RBIs and an .854 OPS. A two-time Home Run Derby champion, he would immediately inject power into any lineup and would be a welcome addition for the Nationals, who could slot him into the cleanup spot behind CJ Abrams, Crews and Wood and have quite an imposing quartet to jumpstart the offense.
Alonso, of course, is going to be paid big bucks as he approaches his 30th birthday, likely something in the range of $150 million over five years. And given how important he was to the Mets during their surprise October run, Steve Cohen is surely going to be motivated to compete with any offer Alonso gets from other suitors.
So, Alonso may be a bit out of the Nationals’ reach. Which is fine, because the next tier of candidates isn’t bad at all.
Christian Walker doesn’t get nearly as much attention, but over the last three seasons with the Diamondbacks he has averaged 32 homers, 94 RBIs and an .813 OPS. He turns 34 in March, so he won’t command a long-term deal, perhaps something in the range of three years and $60 million to $70 million. And as an added bonus, Walker has won three straight Gold Glove Awards, which explains why he’s actually accrued more WAR than Alonso over the last three seasons.
If the Nats are willing to go the older, more experienced route, the guy who preceded Walker in Arizona is also available. Paul Goldschmidt isn’t the perennial MVP candidate he used to be, but even in his age-36 season he delivered 33 doubles and 22 homers for the Cardinals while playing solid defense. Goldy could probably be had on a one-year deal and would bring instant leadership to a clubhouse lacking a real trusted veteran voice.
Anthony Rizzo also fits that leadership role, though the 35-year-old had a pretty dismal season at the plate for the Yankees (a .228/.301/.335 slash line over 375 plate appearances). He still plays a smooth first base in the field, for what it’s worth.
Also smooth in the field is Carlos Santana (pun intended), who won his first career Gold Glove at 38 while also totaling 26 doubles, 23 homers and 71 RBIs for the Twins.
Are the Nationals guaranteed to emerge with one of those players this winter? Not necessarily. They could decide to seek their big bat at another position, whether in the outfield, at third base or in the DH role.
But first base does remain the team’s biggest hole, both in the short and long term. And given the depth of options available, it feels like Rizzo’s most likely target this winter.