JUPITER, Fla. – The results on the scoreboard – six runs, 10 hits, two homers – did not look good. Neither did the radar gun, which showed Jake Irvin averaging just 91.4 mph on his fastball, down 2.5 mph from his 2024 average velocity.
This is spring training, though, so you always have to be careful reading too much into the numbers. No, Irvin did not have a good day this afternoon during the Cardinals’ 7-1 thumping of the Nationals. But the right-hander insists he felt fine physically, and there’s no way the team would’ve let him throw 91 pitches over 5 2/3 innings if anyone was seriously worried something was wrong with him.
“No, we would’ve definitely taken him out,” manager Davey Martinez said. “But he said he felt great. He said nothing to worry about. He’s tinkering. One, he’s throwing the slider, he’s throwing the cutter, so his fastball was just a little off.”
Irvin had enjoyed an excellent spring to date. He didn’t surrender a run in any of his first three Grapefruit League starts, and his defense betrayed him in his most recent outing, leading to six runs in 3 1/3 innings but only one of those earned.
So, the 28-year-old has earned some benefit of the doubt. But everything about today’s start, both the results and the way he looked, was hard to ignore.
The drop in velocity was evident from the first inning, which saw the Cardinals pounce on Irvin for two runs on three hits and send seven batters to the plate on a mere 13 pitches. And it continued throughout the afternoon, with Irvin sometimes struggling to top 90 mph with his fastball.
Could he tell his stuff was diminished?
“Right now, it definitely feels that way,” he said. “I don’t know if that’s just the adrenaline of the game, or something mechanically. But we’ll dive into it tomorrow and see what’s up.”
Asked specifically if he has any physical concerns, Irvin insisted he does not: “Physically feel good, yeah.”
So what then to make of this? It could be the dreaded late-spring “dead arm” period that has been known to plague pitchers of all stripes around the sport for decades. It could be a product of some mechanical glitches that will show up when Irvin, pitching coach Jim Hickey and pitching strategist Sean Doolittle start studying the video and the analytics from this game.
“It could be, sometimes I think he’s fighting a little bit to get on top of the baseball,” Martinez said. “But we’ll see. I’m not overly concerned. We’ll see how he comes out the next time.”
Irvin also noted he was focused more on his full repertoire this afternoon, and the numbers back that up. Only 26 of his 91 total pitches were four-seam fastballs. He also threw 22 curveballs, 17 changeups, 13 cutters and 13 sinkers, according to Baseball Savant.
“We wanted to throw a lot of different pitches, try to throw everything for strikes,” he said. “And I think we accomplished what we set out to do.”
Perhaps the most important thing Irvin did today, then, was reach the sixth inning. Even though he surrendered runs in each of his first five frames, he did manage to keep his pitch count low enough to warrant another trip to the mound for the bottom of the sixth. He faced two batters that inning, retiring each on ground balls, and then handed the ball to his manager to call it a day.
“He came out that last inning, looked strong, looked good,” Martinez said. “His fastball got up to 92. Take the scoreboard away, and we’re pretty pleased. He pitched six innings, got his innings in. We’ll get him ready to go for the following week.”
As things stand, Irvin is slated to pitch just once more before Opening Day: the March 24 exhibition finale against the Orioles at Nationals Park. And barring some last-minute change, he’s then lined up to start the team’s second game of the season: March 29 against the Phillies.
That gives him 10 days to decipher what happened today and make any necessary tweaks to ensure he’s good to go not just for his season debut but ideally another 33 starts after that in 2025.
“I’m ready to go. I’m ready to go,” he said. “It’s time to get back up to D.C. and start competing.”