Anyone who paid zero attention to Trevor Williams over the last two seasons would probably have a hard time grasping how he pitched for the Nationals, based solely on his final stat lines.
2023: 6-10, 5.55 ERA, 1.600 WHIP in 30 starts.
2024: 6-1, 2.03 ERA, 1.035 WHIP in 13 starts.
What was wrong with the right-hander in his first season in D.C.? And how did he pull off a complete 180 the following season? And why did he only make 13 starts when he was that good?
All valid questions, and the kind of questions that can only be answered by those who watched it all and understand the wild path he took to get to this point.
“When the league punches back at you,” Williams said, “you have to figure out a way to either dodge or punch back.”
Williams said this late Friday night after shutting out the Phillies over five innings in his final outing of the year. It was his second straight effective outing, having held the Cubs to one run over five innings last week at Wrigley Field. And those two starts came 3 1/2 months after he landed on the injured list with a flexor strain in his right elbow.
Would Williams have maintained those kind of numbers over a full, 30-start season? Maybe, maybe not.
He did become a completely different pitcher this year, though, after his massive struggles last year. He did so by significantly reducing the usage of his below-average, four-seam fastball, which he threw only 35.7 percent of the time (down from a peak of 52.8 percent in 2022). And he did so by ditching his curveball for a brand-new sweeper that became his second-most-thrown pitch (20.9 percent of the time).
The end result: Opponents slugged a mere .286 off his fastball, down from .563 last season. And they slugged a measly .152 off his sweeper, way down from their .629 mark off his curveball last season. One year after surrendering a league-high 34 homers, he surrendered only three in 66 2/3 innings.
“I think we learned last year that, even with a pitch I’ve had success with in the past, I kept trying to go to it. And it was getting really damaged,” he said. “So, just try and avoid damage. That’s pitching. Try and figure out where you can not get hurt by slug. Thankfully, we were able to find that and ride that wave.”
Even after the long layoff due to the injury.
“I never once doubted that he would pitch again,” manager Davey Martinez said. “But for him to come out and do what he’s done after missing considerable time, it’s a testament to who he is and what he’s trying to do.”
So, what comes next for Williams? His two-year, $13 million contract expires at season’s end, making him a free agent. He came to D.C. after serving as an effective swingman with the Mets in 2021-22 in large part because the Nationals were willing to give him a chance to be a full-time starter.
The organization has seen several young starters emerge since then, with MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker all ticketed for next year’s rotation, and Cade Cavalli (and eventually Josiah Gray) hoping to join them. General manager Mike Rizzo is likely to pursue a more accomplished starter this winter, either via free agency or trade.
That doesn’t appear to leave a guaranteed rotation job available to someone like Williams. But perhaps that swingman role would make sense here.
Williams wasn’t ready to go there yet Friday night, but he did make it clear he would like to return to the Nationals in 2025.
“This is a tremendous team,” he said. “I’ve grown to love these guys in the clubhouse. What we’ve done is special. We have an opportunity to win more games than we did last year, and we made incredible strives forward. … They’re really close. I’d love to be a part of this team that wins another World Series here. I’m going to do the best I can to try to make it happen, but we’ll see what happens.”