You don’t go into this annual exercise planning to vote for a certain number of players. I’ve been a Hall of Fame voter for 15 years now, and the number of candidates who got a check mark next to their names has wildly varied in that time. I’ve voted for the maximum 10 players before (and probably would’ve voted for an 11th at least once if allowed). I’ve voted for seven players before. I’ve voted for five players before. I’ve voted for three players before.
It’s never been about the final number of check marks. It’s always been about the individual case of each player on the ballot, which some years has produced only a few yes votes and other years has produced a lot.
Suffice it to say, I didn’t enter the voting process this year planning to only select two candidates. I had a hunch the number would be relatively low, but I didn’t expect it to be this low. When I finished the process and realized I only selected two players, I didn’t feel great about it. I decided to re-examine several of my no votes and see if I could come up with a valid reason to change my mind. In the end, I did not.
This evening’s announcement, though, that three players were elected to the Hall of Fame by receiving at least 75 percent support from 394 voting members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America will cause me to do some real soul searching over the next 12 months. While I’ve admittedly held a higher Cooperstown standard than many of my colleagues for a long time now, I’ve never felt badly about that before. But I may need to reconsider that standard now.
Ichiro Suzuki, Billy Wagner and CC Sabathia all were elected to the Hall of Fame tonight, and I only voted for two of them. That’s great for them, troubling for me.
I’ve always maintained a candidate needs to have passed three critical tests to get my vote: 1) Excellence, 2) Longevity and 3) Nothing concrete that violates the Hall’s stated requirement that voters consider a player’s character, integrity and sportsmanship. While I’ve withheld my vote for a number of great players who didn’t meet that third standard, I’ve also withheld my vote for others who I believed either didn’t excel at the sport quite enough or sustain excellence over a long enough period of time. I don’t foresee myself lowering the bar much on category No. 3, but I do think I need to be willing to lower the bar on category No. 1 and No. 2 in the future. Maybe it’s just too much to ask players of this age to dominate for more than a decade.
In any case, sincere congratulations to those who were elected tonight, best of luck in the future to those who came up short and apologies to those who did not receive enough support to remain on the ballot next year.
Here’s my case-by-case explanation for my votes on all 28 candidates. I certainly don’t expect you to agree with them all, but I hope you respect the time, effort and thought process that went into these decisions, even if some wound up falling well outside mainstream opinion ...
BOBBY ABREU – NO
There’s been some movement in Abreu’s direction in the six years he’s been on the ballot, but he’s still nowhere close to being elected. Why? His career totals (.291/.395/.475, 2,470 hits, 574 doubles, 288 homers, 1,363 RBIs, 400 stolen bases) look awfully good at first glance. And he’s actually got a nine-year peak where the numbers are even better (.305/.416/.513, average of 40 doubles, 22 homers, 95 RBIs). Here’s the problem: Those numbers, while excellent when compared to players from other generations, are just very good when compared to players from his own generation. His 128 OPS-plus (which standardizes OPS regardless of ballparks and other factors) ranks just 17th among all players with 7,000 plate appearances during his career. His closest comps: Mark Teixeira and Jeff Kent. All really good hitters, but none of them Hall of Famers.
CARLOS BELTRÁN – NO
Beltrán is probably going to make it to Cooperstown soon. He’s on the kind of year-by-year voting track that suggests he’s well on his way to 75 percent, getting to 70.3 percent this time. If and when that happens, he’ll make it based on a tremendous performance record: 2,725 hits, 565 doubles, 435 homers, 1,587 RBIs, 312 stolen bases, .279/.350/.486 slash line and some incredible postseason numbers. The only valid reason not to vote for him is the reason I have not voted for him: His connection to the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal in 2017. He wasn’t just a participant, he was admittedly the ringleader of the whole cheating scheme. If I’m going to withhold my vote for players who took performance-enhancing drugs, citing the Hall of Fame’s longstanding insistence we consider character, integrity and sportsmanship, I don’t see how I can ignore this massive red flag. I loved Beltrán as a player, but I hate that he was so involved in one of the sport’s worst scandals, one that truly called into question the integrity of some of the most important games he played.
MARK BUEHRLE – NO
Every great team would love to have a workhorse on its staff like Buehrle, who for 15 consecutive years made at least 30 starts, totaled at least 198 2/3 innings and won at least 10 games. That’s all wonderful. But the most important part of pitching is preventing the other team from scoring runs, and in that regard Buehrle was not elite. He ranked in the top five in his league in ERA only twice. He received Cy Young Award votes only once. And his 3.81 career ERA ranked only 14th among all pitchers with 2,000 innings during his career, behind James Shields and Dan Haren.
CARLOS GONZÁLEZ – NO
The “Coors Field penalty” doesn’t really exist anymore, as evidenced by the recent elections of Larry Walker and Todd Helton. So González shouldn’t be penalized for putting up some gargantuan numbers in the thin Colorado air. He should, however, be penalized for not sustaining a high level of success very long. From 2010-16, he slashed .296/.353/.535 with an average of 28 doubles, 26 homers and 86 RBIs. But he played only three more seasons after that, his numbers plummeting to .260/.328/.423. He actually finished his career with only 5,551 plate appearances. Nobody who has played since 1976 got into the Hall of Fame with fewer than 7,000.
CURTIS GRANDERSON – NO
A wonderful player during his peak, Granderson averaged 107 runs, 25 doubles, 11 triples, 31 homers and 18 stolen bases each year from 2007-12 with the Tigers and Yankees. He still managed to hit home runs during his later years with the Mets and finished with 344 for his career. But he also finished with a .249 career batting average and only 1,800 hits, totals that don’t stack up with the serious Cooperstown candidates.
FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ – NO
Of all the first-timers on this ballot I really wanted to vote for but didn’t, this was the one. When you think of King Félix, you immediately think of him as the best pitcher in the game for a stretch, electrifying Seattle every five days when he took the mound. He won a Cy Young Award and finished runner-up twice more, won two ERA titles and enjoyed a six-year peak from 2009-14 in which he delivered a 2.73 ERA and 1.099 WHIP while averaging 232 innings and 226 strikeouts. Absolutely elite stuff, combined with a workhorse approach rare in the modern game. But it just didn’t last. Hernández was still solid in 2015-16 (3.65 ERA, 1.242 WHIP) but then the bottom fell out. He pitched only three more seasons, his ERA skyrocketing to 5.42 while averaging only 105 innings. And then he was done at 33. He finished his career with a 3.42 ERA (seventh-best among all qualified major leaguers, behind Adam Wainwright and tied with Cole Hamels) and 1.206 WHIP (ninth in the majors, behind Hamels and Jared Weaver). In fact, he really has a similar case in the end to Hamels, a fine pitcher but not a Hall of Famer. This may be one I need to reconsider in the future. As I’ve stated, I look for both excellence and longevity in my picks. But there seem to be fewer and fewer pitchers who manage to maintain excellence longer than six or seven years. Maybe that’s just a product of this era, and maybe I need to start taking that into consideration on future ballots. Unfortunately for now, I’m not ready to make that concession, and so Hernández gets left out.
TORII HUNTER – NO
Was Hunter one of the best all-around center fielders for a sustained period of time? It feels like that, doesn’t it? Over a 12-year stretch from 2001-11, he averaged 82 runs, 32 doubles, 24 homers, 88 RBIs and 15 stolen bases while also winning nine Gold Glove Awards. What’s not to like about that? Here’s the problem: When you stack his numbers up against all the other center fielders of his era, he doesn’t actually rank that high. His .793 OPS is ninth, behind the likes of Granderson and Steve Finley. Johnny Damon amassed more WAR in slightly fewer games played. And, shockingly, he doesn’t rate well by most defensive metrics, perhaps suggesting all those Gold Gloves were awarded more on reputation than actual performance.
ADAM JONES – NO
Speaking of good all-around center fielders, Jones certainly fits the bill. One of the emotional leaders of the Orioles’ 2010s renaissance, he finished his career with 963 runs, 1,939 hits, 336 doubles, 282 homers, 945 RBIs and four Gold Glove Awards. But his .771 career OPS and .317 on-base percentage don’t really stand out, certainly not among his contemporaries. In the end, he wasn’t as good as Hunter, who himself wasn’t good enough for Cooperstown.
ANDRUW JONES – NO
Sigh, here’s yet another example of a player who absolutely dominated his position for a good stretch of time, one I would love to vote for. And yet again one I didn’t vote for because he just couldn’t sustain that performance long enough to meet my standards. From 1998-2006, Jones slashed .270/.347/.513 while averaging 99 runs, 31 doubles, 35 homers, 104 RBIs and 12 stolen bases and winning the Gold Glove Award in center field every single year. Brilliant stuff. And then he turned 30 and fell off a cliff. Jones’ numbers over his final five seasons: .210/.316/.424 with an average of 32 runs, 11 doubles, 13 homers, 34 RBIs and three stolen bases, not to mention zero Gold Gloves. I get why so many writers vote for him (66.2 percent) and why so many fans root for him. I’m just not there, yet. Again, maybe this is one of those cases I need to strongly reconsider.
IAN KINSLER – NO
We think of him as one of the better hitters of his time, one who came oh-so-close to an important milestone, only to finish with 1,999 hits. But Kinsler’s career batting average was a surprisingly low .269. Nevertheless, nearly 2,000 hits, 416 doubles, 257 homers, 909 RBIs and 243 stolen bases while primarily playing second base for more than a decade is a solid career resume.
RUSSELL MARTIN – NO
Did you know Martin really was a shortstop at heart, not a catcher? He was originally drafted as an infielder by the Dodgers, who then moved him behind the plate. The move may have annoyed Martin, who finally got to start one game at shortstop for the Blue Jays late in his career, but it was the right move for his long-term benefit. He made four All-Star teams as a catcher, won a Gold Glove and earned MVP votes three times. And he made the postseason 10 different times for four different organizations (Dodgers, Yankees, Pirates, Blue Jays). Not a bad legacy at all.
BRIAN McCANN – NO
A heart-and-soul member of the Braves for nearly a decade, he made seven All-Star teams in eight years, winning six Silver Slugger Awards as one of the best-hitting catchers of his era. Nine straight seasons with at least 20 homers.
DUSTIN PEDROIA – NO
Pedroia’s career started off with a bang, with a Rookie of the Year and a World Series title in 2007, then American League MVP honors in 2008. And he continued to help lead the Red Sox for more than half a decade, winning four Gold Glove Awards and finishing top-10 in the MVP race three times. But injuries halted what maybe could’ve become a Hall of Fame career. Pedroia essentially was done by 33, playing only nine more games after that. He wound up as one of the very good, but not one of the very best, second basemen of his time, probably trailing Robinson Cano, Jose Altuve and Chase Utley in that regard. For what it’s worth, the player he most closely compares to in Baseball-Reference’s “Similarity Score” is … Howie Kendrick.
ANDY PETTITTE – NO
Pettitte made a lot of starts (521) and won a lot of games (256). I suppose those are two basic criteria you look for in a Hall of Famer. But it’s about more than that. You have to dig a little bit deeper. And when you start to look at Pettitte more closely, you realize he wasn’t really all that dominant. His 3.85 career ERA ranks just 19th among 44 qualifying pitchers during his career (behind the likes of Al Leiter and Dan Haren). And his 1.351 WHIP ranks a mere 34th out of those 44 pitchers (behind the likes of Woody Williams and Randy Wolf). I give him credit for sustaining a certain level of success for many years, not to mention his championship pedigree. But you have to acknowledge his stature in the sport was boosted very much by the great teams he pitched for, probably more than the way he pitched for them.
HANLEY RAMIREZ – NO
Maybe it’s because he was grossly overpaid by the Red Sox at the end of his career, but we tend to think of Ramirez as a disappointing player to some extent. Think again. He was a tremendous player for an extended stretch. From 2006-13 with the Marlins and Dodgers, he slashed a whopping .302/.373/.506 while averaging 95 runs, 34 doubles, 22 homers, 73 RBIs and 31 homers. Yes, he disappeared after that and couldn’t finish what he started. But he was an exceptionally good, all-around shortstop for at least eight years.
MANNY RAMIREZ – NO
This is Manny’s ninth time on the ballot, and I’ve pretty much said the same thing about him the previous eight years. He was the preeminent right-handed hitter of his time, and one of the best of any time. His career slash line was a ridiculously good .312/.411/.585, and he totaled 2,574 hits, 547 doubles, 555 homers and 1,831 RBIs (20th on the all-time list). He was an integral part of a Cleveland team that reached two World Series and a Red Sox team that won two World Series. But he was suspended not once, but twice, after failing drug tests. And these were official drug tests performed by Major League Baseball with official consequences attached to them. He simply has no valid excuse for that. He’ll appear on the ballot one more time next year, and I’ll write the same thing one more time. And then it will be up to a future veteran’s committee to decide if Ramirez deserves enshrinement. Based on the way the past committee handled the cases of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, I think we already know the answer.
FERNANDO RODNEY – NO
We tend to think around here of him as the 42-year-old middle reliever who somehow won a World Series ring with the Nationals before retiring, but let’s not completely ignore the fact Rodney was one of baseball’s best closers for a while. He’s got 327 career saves (19th all-time). Over a three-year stretch from 2012-14 with the Rays and Mariners, he had 133 saves and a 2.21 ERA. And the man made it through 17 big league seasons with 11 different organizations. An off-center tip of the cap and an arrow to the skies in honor of a true baseball character.
ALEX RODRIGUEZ – NO
While some steroid users have seen their support steadily climb over the years, A-Rod has pretty much been stuck in the same place throughout his four-year stint on the ballot. Roughly one in three voters do not mind that he admitted he took steroids from 2001-03, then was later suspended for an entire season as part of the Biogenesis investigation. Those voters are, of course, entitled to their opinions. And certainly Rodriguez’s numbers (696 homers, 3,115 hits) rival almost anyone in baseball history. But if you’re willing to ignore those blatant red flags, why even bother banning steroids anymore?
FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ – NO
If you made a list of the best closers from, say, 1995-2015, most everyone would have Mariano Rivera at the top, then Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner behind him (you can debate in what order with those two). And then fourth on that list is probably Rodriguez, who finished his career with 437 saves, a 2.86 ERA and 1.155 WHIP. Rivera was a unanimous choice for the Hall of Fame. Hoffman got in easily on his first ballot. And Wagner finally made it on his 10th and final ballot. Could K-Rod get there someday himself? Maybe, but it’s going to require a massive climb over the next seven years, even more ground than Wagner had to make up. With relievers, it’s always been tough to distinguish the cutoff point. Some believe Rivera was the only one of his generation worthy. Others believe Hoffman deserved to join him. And now a large majority agreed Wagner should be included. It feels like that’s where the cutoff line is going to stick. But if the bar ever gets lowered just a bit, Rodriguez would probably be next in line.
JIMMY ROLLINS – NO
There’s no doubting his importance to some great Phillies teams, including the 2008 World Series champions. And his 2007 season was epic enough to secure National League MVP honors. But let’s acknowledge Rollins never came close to sustaining that level of performance over the long haul. He was a career .264 hitter with a .418 slugging percentage. His OPS over his final eight seasons was .702. Actually, his career OPS-plus was only 95, which suggests he was a below-average offensive player. Yes, he was a good defensive shortstop, but not so good as to make his offensive weaknesses moot.
CC SABATHIA – NO
This isn’t the first time someone I didn’t vote for was elected to the Hall of Fame. It’s happened in a couple of other instances. This is, however, the first time someone I didn’t vote for was elected on his first ballot. Which doesn’t leave me with a good feeling. Though I seek opinions from other writers and read other columns in support of or against various candidates, I ultimately make my decisions off my own analysis and gut feelings, with only minimal consideration for how others voted. And in my analysis, Sabathia fell short by a bit. His pros: 251 wins, 3,577 innings, 3,093 strikeouts, a Cy Young Award, six All-Star selections. Nobody had more wins, innings and strikeouts during his career. The cons: a 3.74 ERA that ranked only 17th among his peers, a 1.259 WHIP that ranked 19th, and a strikeout rate of 7.8 per nine innings that surprisingly ranked only 13th. I saw Sabathia’s career as quite similar to Pettitte’s career (256 wins, 2,448 strikeouts, 3,316 innings). And while the latter does receive some support, he’s never come anywhere close to being elected in seven attempts on the ballot. And yet here’s Sabathia getting voted in on his first attempt. I’m stunned. But I was wrong. An overwhelming majority of my colleagues (86.8 percent) believe Sabathia is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and I can’t argue against that kind of broad support. Congratulations to CC. I’m sorry I didn’t fully appreciate your career.
ICHIRO SUZUKI – YES
I distinctly remember the first time I saw Ichiro play in person: May 2001, when the Orioles visited Seattle. He hit what I would describe as a routine ground ball to short, but he did so while already en route to first base at the point of contact. And then he almost beat it out as the crowd gasped. I remember thinking to myself: “This guy is going to change the way baseball’s been played for the last century!” He didn’t change the way baseball’s been played, but only because he was such a unique figure in this game’s history that nobody else could even attempt to play the game like he did and be successful. He was a true marvel to watch throughout his career, and his numbers over 19 major league seasons (3,089 hits, 509 stolen bases, a .311 batting average) were more than enough to warrant instant election on his first ballot. Then consider he did all that after playing the first nine seasons of his baseball career in Japan, where he batted .353 with another 1,278 hits. Just remarkable.
TROY TULOWITZKI – NO
Tulo was an absolute force in his early days, reaching the big leagues only one year after the Rockies drafted him out of Long Beach State, helping lead that franchise to its only World Series appearance as a rookie shortstop. Through age 29, he was a .299/.373/.517 hitter with two Gold Gloves and two top-five MVP finishes. Cooperstown was very much on his radar. And then, like far too many others of the last two decades, he saw his career fall apart in his 30s. He played only 333 games from 2015-19, and though injuries were the primary reason for that, it’s unfortunately a key distinguisher between many Hall of Famers and those who don’t get there.
CHASE UTLEY – NO
As good as he was for the second half of the 2000s, and as beloved as he is in Philly, Utley’s Hall of Fame case just doesn’t stack up. From 2005-09, he was legitimately one of the best players in baseball, with a .301/.388/.535 slash line and an average of 111 runs, 39 doubles, 29 homers, 101 RBIs and 15 stolen bases. But that’s only five seasons. Utley played nine more seasons after that, and here are his numbers over that longer stretch: .256/.338/.411, with an average of 56 runs, 22 doubles, 11 homers, 49 RBIs and eight stolen bases. He finished his career with only 1,885 hits, a total every Hall of Fame position player since 1960 has surpassed, most by a healthy margin.
OMAR VIZQUEL – NO
The case for Vizquel is simple: He was an elite defender, maybe one of the best ever, at the premier position on the field, for an incredibly long time. And certainly, 24 seasons as a big league shortstop, 10 of them resulting in a Gold Glove Award, is an impressive legacy. But as stated here before, Vizquel probably wasn’t as elite a shortstop as you think. Though he’s third all-time in assists by a shortstop, he finished higher than fourth in his league only once. Though he’s the all-time leader in double plays turned by a shortstop, he finished higher than third in his league only once. His case really is more about longevity than anything. And it’s definitely not about offense. Vizquel was a career .272/.336/.352 hitter, whose OPS-plus of 82 would be tied for worst among all non-pitchers in the Hall of Fame, alongside Luis Aparicio and Rabbit Maranville.
BILLY WAGNER – YES
It took the full 10 years to happen, but it finally happened. Wagner has been elected to the Hall of Fame, joining a select group of relievers to make it to Cooperstown. He’s always been worthy of this honor, or at least shouldn’t have been made to sweat it out for a full decade before getting the news. His 0.998 WHIP is the best by anyone who pitched at least 900 innings in the major leagues in more than a century. So is his 11.9 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate. The only pitcher since 1935 with a lower career ERA than Wagner’s 2.31 mark is Mariano Rivera (2.21). That’s a rock-solid case, always has been. Congrats to the Virginia native on his long-awaited election.
DAVID WRIGHT – NO
Like his childhood travel ball buddy Ryan Zimmerman, Wright appeared to be on a Hall of Fame track early in his career, combining big offensive numbers (36 doubles, 23 homers, 93 RBIs, .890 OPS his first nine full seasons) with Gold Glove-caliber defense at third base. But like Zimmerman, Wright never could sustain that production over the long haul due to crippling injuries. In his case, it was a bad back that limited him to only 211 games played after age 30. He was the heart and soul of the Mets for a long time, but unfortunately we’re all left wondering what might have been had he been able to stay healthy.
BEN ZOBRIST – NO
You have to appreciate anyone who gets the most out of his career, and you have to credit Zobrist for doing that as well as just about anyone in recent memory. Originally a sixth-round pick of the Astros, he took off once he joined the Rays, becoming a jack-of-all-trades infielder/outfielder who made two All-Star teams, received MVP votes in three different seasons and helped lead Tampa Bay to the first World Series appearance in franchise history. Then he spent half a season in Kansas City and helped the Royals win their first World Series title in three decades. Then he finished his career doing much of the same with the Cubs, earning another All-Star nod while winning World Series MVP honors to lead that cursed franchise to its first championship in 108 years. Not a bad legacy. Not at all.