Some stats and thoughts as everyone tries to forget Thursday’s rain-soaked, 10-inning loss to the Giants and looks ahead to tonight’s series opener against Anthony Rendon and the Angels …
* What’s the biggest reason the Nationals haven’t played as well over the last month as they did earlier this summer? The quality of the performances by their starting pitchers has gone dramatically downhill.
The emergence of a young rotation was the top storyline of the season’s first half, and there was a lot to like about the way MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz were not only pitching well but also pitching relatively deep into games. Over a 40-game stretch from May 22-July 4, the Nats had 17 quality starts (three or fewer earned runs over six or more innings). Unsurprisingly, the team’s record during that stretch was 20-20.
What’s happened since? Over their last 29 games, the Nationals have only five quality starts. Their record, unsurprisingly, is only 12-17 during this prolonged stretch.
Abbreviated outings have especially become a problem in recent weeks, with starters failing to complete five innings in 10 of the last 29 games. In other words, the Nats have been twice as likely to get fewer than five innings than a quality start for the last month.
And Thursday’s game provided one of the more extreme examples. DJ Herz lasted only 2 2/3 innings in the series finale against the Giants, allowing only two runs but needing 74 pitches just to get that far into the game. There was, of course, a 50-minute rain delay in the top of the third, but Herz’s pitch count was already too high at that point for him to have a reasonable chance of making it deeper once the game resumed.
The domino effect on the bullpen has been significant, and it probably leaves that unit shorthanded entering tonight’s game. Davey Martinez may have little choice but to stick with Parker, even if he struggles early, in hopes of eating up some much needed innings.
* Speaking of relievers working overtime, Derek Law put in some especially impressive work Thursday.
The veteran right-hander entered for the top of the seventh and faced the minimum on 13 pitches. He then came back to the mound for the top of the eighth and surrendered a leadoff single as the rain at Nationals Park intensified, ultimately leading to the second stoppage of the day.
It’s rare for a reliever to be brought back after a long delay, especially when he’s already started his second inning of work. But Martinez let Law re-take the mound when play resumed after a 1-hour, 12-minute delay. And he responded by retiring three straight batters, keeping the game tied 2-2.
Law has turned into the true workhorse of the Nationals pitching staff, and really one of the true workhorses of the entire sport. He has now appeared in 58 games, tied with the Giants’ Ryan Walker for the major league lead. And the 72 1/3 innings he has thrown are easily the most thrown by any reliever in the sport so far this season.
Do the math, and you’ll realize Law is on pace to throw 101 innings this season, which would be staggering total. The last true major league reliever to top 100 innings was the Yankees’ Scott Proctor, who finished with 102 1/3 innings over 83 games in 2006.
The Nats have never had a reliever with 100-plus innings pitched. The club single-season record is held by Saul Rivera, who got to 93 innings in 2007. Two others have topped 90 innings in one season: Jon Rauch (91 1/3 in 2006), Tyler Clippard (91 in 2010).
Law, in fact, is only the second Nationals reliever to top 70 innings in the last decade, with Erasmo Ramirez’s 80 1/3 innings in 2022 the only other recent example.
* Though his overall season numbers remain well below average, Keibert Ruiz has quietly become a far more productive hitter over the last month-plus.
On June 28, Ruiz sported a .197 batting average and .291 slugging percentage, some of the worst numbers in the majors, regardless of position. But in 30 games since, he’s batting a very respectable .290 while slugging a respectable .477.
Ruiz’s season totals (.229 batting average, .355 slugging percentage) remain quite low. But if he can maintain this recent sustained stretch through the rest of the year, he’ll have a chance to finish with respectable offensive numbers after all.