Never let it be said we don’t hold ourselves accountable around here. For more than a decade, all of us who cover the Nationals have made Opening Day predictions for the coming season. And each year, we revisit those predictions and reveal just how we all did.
Some years, we have a pretty good take on things large and small. Other years, we don’t come close to getting anything right. This year was a mixed bag. While as a group we did pretty well in some categories, we completely whiffed on some others.
As always, a profound thanks to all my colleagues who were willing to subject themselves to this particular form of torture. And with that, here’s how we did in 2023 …
WHICH NATIONALS WILL BE SELECTED FOR THE ALL-STAR GAME?
Bobby Blanco (MASNsports.com) – Keibert Ruiz
Jessica Camerato (MLB.com) – Keibert Ruiz
Jesse Dougherty (Washington Post) – Hunter Harvey
Andrew Golden (Washington Post) – Joey Meneses
Craig Heist (106.7 The Fan) – Keibert Ruiz, Dominic Smith
Chelsea Janes (Washington Post) – Keibert Ruiz
Bill Ladson (MLB.com honorary) – Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz
Mark Zuckerman (MASNsports.com) – Joey Meneses
Correct answer: Josiah Gray earned the first All-Star selection of his career with a strong first half. The right-hander struggled for a good chunk of the second half but did close strong to finish with a respectable 3.91 ERA.
Winner: Bill Ladson (who hasn’t covered the Nats since 2016 but still participates with us, because it’s become tradition at this point) was the only member of the group to believe in Gray when the season began.
WHAT WILL TOTAL ATTENDANCE BE AT NATIONALS PARK?
Craig Heist – 2,100,000
Jessica Camerato – 2,025,000
Jesse Dougherty – 1,973,303
Bobby Blanco – 1,933,655
Andrew Golden – 1,859,248
Bill Ladson – 1,600,000
Mark Zuckerman – 1,457,283
Chelsea Janes – 1,340,073
Correct answer: The Nationals drew 1,865,832 fans to 81 home games this season (a total that was depressed a slight bit by the sellout crowd of 2,473 at the MLB Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pa., which technically counted as a home game).
Winner: Though this was the Nats’ lowest attendance (in a non-COVID-impacted season) since 2010, three of us still predicted an even smaller total than that. But let’s hear it for Andrew Golden, who missed by a scant 6,584 fans. In my book, that’s close enough to win both Showcases!
WHO WILL LEAD THE TEAM IN HOME RUNS? HOW MANY?
Jessica Camerato – Joey Meneses, 25
Bill Ladson – Joey Meneses, 25
Jesse Dougherty – Joey Meneses, 24
Mark Zuckerman – Joey Meneses, 24
Chelsea Janes – Jeimer Candelario, 23
Craig Heist – Dominic Smith, 23
Andrew Golden – Joey Meneses, 21
Bobby Blanco – Joey Meneses, 20
Correct answer: Lane Thomas wound up leading the Nationals with 28 homers this season, a new career high. Nobody else on the team topped 18.
Winner: Nobody had enough faith in Thomas to think he'd improve upon his solid 2022 performance. Instead, most of us assumed Joey Meneses’ two-month power surge from 2022 would carry over into 2023. It did not, with Meneses finishing fifth on the roster with only 13 homers despite leading the team with 89 RBIs.
WHAT WILL JOEY MENESES’ OPS BE?
Andrew Golden – .901
Bill Ladson – .875
Chelsea Janes – .836
Mark Zuckerman – .832
Bobby Blanco – .825
Jesse Dougherty – .802
Jessica Camerato – .772
Craig Heist – .755
Correct answer: Meneses ended his season with an OPS of .722.
Winner: Most everyone recognized the unlikelihood of the 31-year-old duplicating his out-of-nowhere, .930 OPS as a rookie. But we all expected the drop-off to be far less substantial than it was. Meneses still proved to be the Nationals’ best clutch hitter, but the drop in home runs was dramatic and left him well below even the least optimistic prediction.
WHAT WILL CJ ABRAMS’ BATTING AVERAGE BE?
Jessica Camerato – .275
Bobby Blanco – .273
Mark Zuckerman – .268
Jesse Dougherty – .267
Bill Ladson – .265
Andrew Golden – .264
Chelsea Janes – .264
Craig Heist – .257
Correct answer: Though his season was considered a real success, especially after he moved to the leadoff spot in July, Abrams still finished with a disappointing .245 batting average.
Winner: Once again, we were all too optimistic. Had we only counted his batting average as leadoff hitter (.258), Craig Heist would’ve won this category. But we have to count his average for the entire season, which is too low to credit anyone as a winner here.
RANK THESE PLAYERS FROM HIGHEST TO LOWEST OPS: JEIMER CANDELARIO, COREY DICKERSON, LUIS GARCÍA, DOMINIC SMITH, LANE THOMAS
Bobby Blanco – Candelario, García, Smith, Thomas, Dickerson
Jessica Camerato – Candelario, García, Thomas, Smith, Dickerson
Andrew Golden – Candelario, Smith, Dickerson, García, Thomas
Chelsea Janes – Candelario, Smith, Thomas, Dickerson, García
Jesse Dougherty – Smith, Thomas, Dickerson, García, Candelario
Craig Heist – Smith, Candelario, García, Thomas, Dickerson
Bill Ladson – Smith, Dickerson, Candelario, Thomas, García
Mark Zuckerman – Smith, García, Candelario, Thomas, Dickerson
Correct answer: Candelario led the way (before he was traded to the Cubs) with an .823 OPS, followed by Thomas (.783), Smith (.692), García (.688) and Dickerson (.637 before he was released in early August).
Winner: Nobody got it entirely right, but Chelsea Janes probably came closest. She correctly had Candelario at the top of her list, with both Thomas and Smith, then García and Dickerson flip-flopped.
HOW MANY RUNNERS WILL KEIBERT RUIZ THROW OUT (CAUGHT STEALING+PICKOFFS)?
Jessica Camerato – 26
Mark Zuckerman – 25
Bobby Blanco – 24
Chelsea Janes – 24
Andrew Golden – 21
Jesse Dougherty – 19
Craig Heist – 15
Bill Ladson – 10
Correct answer: Ruiz threw out only 10 basestealers from the behind the plate, but he picked off another six from his position. So that’s a total of 16 runners thrown out. (His official caught-stealing total of 21 includes instances when his batterymate picked off a runner who broke too soon, but he never actually touched the ball in those cases).
Winner: It’s another curly W for Heist, who missed Ruiz’s final total by only one.
WHEN WILL ROBERT HASSELL III MAKE HIS NATIONALS DEBUT?
Craig Heist – July 27 at Mets
Bill Ladson – Aug. 25 at Marlins
Jessica Camerato – Sept. 1 vs. Marlins
Mark Zuckerman – Sept. 1 vs. Marlins
Chelsea Janes – Sept. 3 vs. Marlins
Bobby Blanco – Sept. 5 vs. Mets
Jesse Dougherty – 2024
Andrew Golden – 2024
Correct answer: Hassell struggled at Double-A Harrisburg this season and was never promoted.
Winner: Only the Washington Post’s dynamic duo didn’t predict Hassell would make his major league debut this year. But they still need him to make it sometime in 2024 to officially win this category.
WHO WILL LEAD THE PITCHING STAFF IN WINS? HOW MANY?
Bill Ladson – Josiah Gray, 15
Jessica Camerato – Josiah Gray, 11
Jesse Dougherty – Josiah Gray, 11
Andrew Golden – Josiah Gray, 11
Craig Heist – Josiah Gray, 11
Chelsea Janes – Josiah Gray, 11
Bobby Blanco – Josiah Gray, 10
Mark Zuckerman – MacKenzie Gore, 10
Correct answer: For all his faults, Patrick Corbin did lead the Nationals with 10 wins this season, his highest total since 2019.
Winner: Suffice it to stay, none of us wanted to believe Corbin would wind up leading the staff in a category like that. At least the two of us from MASNsports.com got the win total correct, if not the identity of the pitcher.
RANK THESE PITCHERS FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST ERA: PATRICK CORBIN, MACKENZIE GORE, JOSIAH GRAY, TREVOR WILLIAMS
Bobby Blanco – Gore, Gray, Williams, Corbin
Craig Heist – Gore, Gray, Williams, Corbin
Andrew Golden – Gore, Williams, Gray, Corbin
Chelsea Janes – Gore, Williams, Gray, Corbin
Jessica Camerato – Gray, Gore, Williams, Corbin
Mark Zuckerman – Gray, Gore, Williams, Corbin
Jesse Dougherty – Gray, Gore, Corbin, Williams
Bill Ladson – Gray, Williams, Corbin, Gore
Correct answer: Gray was best in the rotation this season with a 3.91 ERA, followed by Gore (4.42), Corbin (5.20) and Williams (5.55).
Winner: Four of us correctly predicted Gray would lead the staff. And three of us also had Gore in second place. But only Jesse Dougherty also had Corbin in third and Williams in fourth, giving him a perfect prediction in this category.
BESIDES THOSE FOUR, WHICH PITCHER WILL START THE MOST GAMES THIS SEASON?
Bobby Blanco – Chad Kuhl
Jessica Camerato – Chad Kuhl
Jesse Dougherty – Chad Kuhl
Craig Heist – Chad Kuhl
Bill Ladson – Chad Kuhl
Andrew Golden – Cory Abbott
Chelsea Janes – Joan Adon
Mark Zuckerman – Joan Adon
Correct answer: Though Kuhl opened the season as the No. 5 starter, and though Adon finished the season in the rotation, it was unheralded rookie Jake Irvin who made 24 starts in between to rank behind the other four regulars.
Winner: Nobody was bold enough to predict Irvin here. Andrew Golden, though, was bold enough to predict Abbott, who pitched in 22 games for the Nats this year … all of them out of the bullpen.
WHO WILL LEAD THE STAFF IN SAVES? HOW MANY?
Bill Ladson – Kyle Finnegan, 25
Chelsea Janes – Kyle Finnegan, 16
Jessica Camerato – Hunter Harvey, 15
Craig Heist – Hunter Harvey, 15
Andrew Golden – Hunter Harvey, 14
Jesse Dougherty – Kyle Finnegan, 13
Bobby Blanco – Hunter Harvey, 13
Mark Zuckerman – Hunter Harvey, 12
Correct answer: Though Finnegan and Harvey bounced back and forth between the eighth and ninth innings at times during the first half of the season, Finnegan fully took over the role after that and finished with a career-high 28 saves.
Winner: Bill Ladson came pretty close to nailing this one. (In my defense, I only missed Harvey’s save total by two!)
RANK THESE PITCHERS FROM MOST TO FEWEST RELIEF APPEARANCES FOR THE NATS: SEAN DOOLITTLE, CARL EDWARDS JR., KYLE FINNEGAN, HUNTER HARVEY, ERASMO RAMIREZ
Bobby Blanco – Ramirez, Edwards, Finnegan, Harvey, Doolittle
Jesse Dougherty – Ramirez, Edwards, Finnegan, Harvey, Doolittle
Andrew Golden – Ramirez, Finnegan, Edwards, Harvey, Doolittle
Craig Heist – Edwards, Finnegan, Harvey, Ramirez, Doolittle
Bill Ladson – Edwards, Harvey, Finnegan, Ramirez, Doolittle
Jessica Camerato – Finnegan, Harvey, Edwards, Ramirez, Doolittle
Chelsea Janes – Finnegan, Edwards, Ramirez, Harvey, Doolittle
Mark Zuckerman – Finnegan, Ramirez, Harvey, Doolittle, Edwards
Correct answer: Finnegan led the entire staff with 67 relief appearances, followed by Harvey's 57. Jordan Weems and Mason Thompson each appeared in 51 games, with Andrés Machado pitching in 44 games and Jose A. Ferrer in 39 games. None of those four relievers were included in the question, though. So after Finnegan and Harvey, it was Edwards (32), Ramirez (23) and Doolittle (who never made it back from his elbow injury and announced his retirement in September).
Winner: Congrats to Jessica Camerato, who got all five in the correct order. That’s no small feat in a category as unpredictable as this one.
WHO WILL HIT THE MOST HOMERS AGAINST THE NATIONALS? HOW MANY?
Bill Ladson – Pete Alonso, 10
Jessica Camerato – Kyle Schwarber, 8
Bobby Blanco – Kyle Schwarber, 7
Andrew Golden – Daniel Vogelbach, 6
Mark Zuckerman – Trea Turner, 6
Craig Heist – Trea Turner, 5
Chelsea Janes – Matt Olson, 5
Jesse Dougherty – Matt Olson, 4
Correct answer: It was the Phillies’ Nick Castellanos who torched Nats pitching eight times in 13 head-to-head games this season, with his teammate Schwarber right behind him with seven homers.
Winner: With so many big-name sluggers in the National League East, it was easy to overlook Castellanos. Then again, what on earth made Golden think Vogelbach would win this category? For the record, the portly Mets designated hitter took 23 plate appearances against the Nationals this year and did not homer in any of them.
WHO WILL TOTAL THE MOST STRIKEOUTS AGAINST THE NATIONALS? HOW MANY?
Bill Ladson – Max Scherzer, 39
Jessica Camerato – Sandy Alcantara, 35
Jesse Dougherty – Sandy Alcantara, 33
Andrew Golden – Spencer Strider, 32
Mark Zuckerman – Sandy Alcantara, 28
Craig Heist – Max Scherzer, 28
Chelsea Janes – Zack Wheeler, 24
Bobby Blanco – Max Scherzer, 15
Correct answer: It was a tie: Both Strider and Wheeler finished with 20 strikeouts against the Nationals this season (Wheeler across four starts, Strider in only three).
Winner: Post teammates Andrew Golden and Chelsea Janes were the only ones to correctly guess either Strider or Wheeler, but Janes came much closer to the actual total, so she wins because of that.
HOW WILL THE NL EAST FINISH FROM TOP TO BOTTOM?
Bobby Blanco – Mets, Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Nationals
Jesse Dougherty – Mets, Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Nationals
Craig Heist – Mets, Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Marlins
Chelsea Janes – Phillies, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nationals
Andrew Golden – Braves, Mets, Phillies, Marlins, Nationals
Mark Zuckerman – Braves, Mets, Phillies, Marlins, Nationals
Jessica Camerato – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, Nationals
Bill Ladson – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
Correct answer: The Braves ran away with their sixth straight division title, with the Phillies and Marlins earning wild card berths and the Mets and Nationals bringing up the rear.
Winner: The MLB.com tandem correctly predicted another Braves title and second-place finish for the Phillies. But neither was bold enough to put the Marlins in third place. Camerato edges out Ladson for at least having Miami fourth instead of fifth.
HOW MANY GAMES WILL THE NATIONALS WIN?
Bill Ladson – 77
Craig Heist – 74
Chelsea Janes – 68
Jessica Camerato – 64
Mark Zuckerman – 62
Andrew Golden – 61
Jesse Dougherty – 60
Bobby Blanco – 53
Correct answer: You know by now the Nationals finished with 71 wins, a 16-game improvement from last season.
Winner: That final, wild, 10-9 victory over the Braves kind of proved important in the end, because it meant Craig Heist and Chelsea Janes each came within three wins of the correct total. Should we have them split the grand prize, or fight to the death for the right to claim it all to themselves?