We've been doing these Opening Day media predictions for 15 years now, and I'm always grateful to my colleagues on the Nationals beat for their willingness to participate and subject themselves to the inevitable ridicule that follows.
And there's definitely some ridicule to be doled out as we look back at our 2024 predictions. (Hey, I'm just as guilty as anyone!) A lot of things did not play out this season as any of us thought they would back in late March. But we weren't completely wrong on every category. There actually were several spot-on predictions by several members of the beat, and they deserve credit for being right.
And with that, it's time for some accountability. Here's a look back at all of our Opening Day predictions, what we got right and what we did not get right ...
WHICH NATIONALS WILL BE SELECTED FOR THE ALL-STAR GAME?
Bobby Blanco (MASNsports.com) – CJ Abrams
Jessica Camerato (MLB.com) – CJ Abrams
Craig Heist (106.7 The Fan) – Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz
Chelsea Janes (Washington Post) – CJ Abrams
Andrew Golden (Washington Post) – MacKenzie Gore
Bill Ladson (MLB.com honorary) – Josiah Gray, Jake Irvin
Spencer Nusbaum (Washington Post) – MacKenzie Gore
Mark Zuckerman (MASNsports.com) – Kyle Finnegan
Correct answer: CJ Abrams was set to be the Nationals’ lone All-Star this year, the first selection of his career, after his outstanding first half. Then on the day before the Midsummer Classic, Kyle Finnegan was added to the National League roster to replace Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, giving the Nats two All-Stars.
Winner: Nobody predicted both guys would make it, but Bobby Blanco, Jessica Camerato and Chelsea Janes all correctly predicted Abrams’ selection. And then thanks to the late addition of Finnegan, I also can claim half-victory.
WHAT WILL TOTAL ATTENDANCE BE AT NATIONALS PARK?
Craig Heist – 2,100,000
Jessica Camerato – 1,985,721
Bobby Blanco – 1,969,333
Spencer Nusbaum – 1,943,391
Mark Zuckerman – 1,927,436
Bill Ladson – 1,900,000
Chelsea Janes – 1,870,000
Andrew Golden – 1,823,947
Correct answer: The Nationals wound up drawing 1,967,302 fans this season, up a bit from last season (1,865,832) but down a bit from 2022 (2,026,401). That worked out to an average of 24,288 fans per game, which ranked 22nd in the majors.
Winner: This one came right down to the wire. Credit to a bunch of us who correctly predicted something in the 1.9 million range. But a whole lot of credit to Bobby Blanco, who was almost perfect, ultimately missing the right number by only 2,031 fans!
WHO WILL LEAD THE TEAM IN HOME RUNS? HOW MANY?
Bobby Blanco – Lane Thomas, 33
Chelsea Janes – Lane Thomas, 31
Jessica Camerato – Lane Thomas, 30
Mark Zuckerman – Lane Thomas, 27
Andrew Golden – Lane Thomas, 26
Craig Heist – Lane Thomas, 25
Spencer Nusbaum – CJ Abrams, 22
Bill Ladson – James Wood, 20
Correct answer: The Nationals ranked last in the NL in home runs, and they didn’t have anyone who enjoyed a breakthrough season in the power department. So even though he finished with only 20 homers, Abrams still led the club in that department.
Winner: Let’s hear it for the kid, Spencer Nusbaum. The rookie reporter was the only one who had Abrams leading the team in homers, and he came pretty close to the correct number as well, overestimating only by two.
HOW MANY BASES WILL CJ ABRAMS STEAL?
Spencer Nusbaum – 63
Andrew Golden – 56
Bobby Blanco – 55
Jessica Camerato – 55
Craig Heist – 52
Mark Zuckerman – 51
Bill Ladson – 40
Chelsea Janes – 35
Correct answer: On the heels of a club record performance (47 steals in 51 attempts) in 2023, expectations were high for Abrams this year. He didn’t come close to matching, and certainly not exceeding that number. Abrams finished with a solid 31 steals, but that was two fewer than team leader Jacob Young.
Winner: Everyone overestimated, but Chelsea Janes overestimated the least. She gets the nod for this category.
WHAT WILL JOEY GALLO’S BATTING AVERAGE BE?
Jessica Camerato – .216
Craig Heist – .210
Bobby Blanco – .199
Andrew Golden – .199
Chelsea Janes – .197
Spencer Nusbaum – .191
Mark Zuckerman – .181
Bill Ladson – .160
Correct answer: Owner of a .194 career batting average, Gallo wasn’t expected to do particularly well in that category after signing a one-year, $5 million deal with the Nats. But he didn’t even come close to matching his career average, beset by injuries and his usual issues with contact, and finished with a paltry .161 average in only 260 plate appearances.
Winner: Bill Ladson clearly wasn’t high on Gallo from the outset. And his lack of confidence was warranted, because he nearly nailed Gallo’s final batting average on the nose.
RANK THESE PLAYERS FROM HIGHEST TO LOWEST OPS: JOEY MENESES, EDDIE ROSARIO, KEIBERT RUIZ, LANE THOMAS, JESSE WINKER
Bobby Blanco – Thomas, Ruiz, Meneses, Winker, Rosario
Andrew Golden – Thomas, Ruiz, Rosario, Meneses, Winker
Craig Heist – Thomas, Rosario, Meneses, Winker, Ruiz
Chelsea Janes – Thomas, Rosario, Winker, Ruiz, Meneses
Jessica Camerato – Thomas, Meneses, Rosario, Ruiz, Winker
Mark Zuckerman – Thomas, Meneses, Rosario, Ruiz, Winker
Bill Ladson – Meneses, Thomas, Rosario, Winker, Ruiz
Spencer Nusbaum – Rosario, Thomas, Winker, Ruiz, Meneses
Correct answer: This wasn’t exactly a rousing success for the group as a whole. Winker was solid during his four months with the Nationals, producing a .793 OPS, and Thomas got hot after a slow start to get his OPS up to .738 before he was traded to Cleveland. But the rest really struggled. Ruiz needed a strong September just to get to .619, and that still was better than Meneses (.593) and Rosario (.555), both of them dropped from the big leagues early in the summer.
Winner: Nobody had high hopes for Winker, who didn’t finish higher than third in anyone’s rankings. Everyone correctly had Thomas either first or second, but the predictions on Ruiz, Meneses and Rosario were pretty uniformly wrong. Sorry, but we can’t declare any winners for this category.
WHO WILL BAT THIRD IN THE STARTING LINEUP THE MOST TIMES?
Bobby Blanco – Joey Meneses
Jessica Camerato – Joey Meneses
Craig Heist – Joey Meneses
Bill Ladson – Joey Meneses
Mark Zuckerman – Joey Meneses
Andrew Golden – Eddie Rosario
Spencer Nusbaum – Eddie Rosario
Chelsea Janes – James Wood
Correct answer: Much as he would have liked to have a consistent No. 3 hitter, Davey Martinez wound up mixing and matching all year long. A staggering 14 different players batted third at least once, and seven guys did it at least 10 times. And the guy who did it the most times (41), was none other than … Jesse Winker.
Winner: Yeah, none of us saw that coming.
WHO WILL START THE MOST GAMES AT SECOND BASE? HOW MANY?
Bill Ladson – Trey Lipscomb, 120
Chelsea Janes – Trey Lipscomb, 106
Bobby Blanco – Luis García Jr., 103
Jessica Camerato – Trey Lipscomb, 100
Mark Zuckerman – Trey Lipscomb, 87
Spencer Nusbaum – Trey Lipscomb, 82
Andrew Golden – Luis García Jr., 72
Craig Heist – Trey Lipscomb, 70
Correct answer: If ever you needed a reminder of the state of the team way back at the end of March, here it is. At that time, García was really being pushed by Lipscomb, who almost made the Opening Day roster. Lipscomb did end up spending considerable time in the big leagues, but almost all of that time came at third base. García, meanwhile, finally put it all together at the plate and in the field to enjoy a breakthrough season, earning him 122 starts at second base.
Winner: Only Bobby Blanco and Andrew Golden showed faith in García. And only Blanco showed enough faith to predict at least 100 games started, so he wins another category.
WHO WILL START THE MOST GAMES IN LEFT FIELD? HOW MANY?
Bobby Blanco – Eddie Rosario, 111
Craig Heist – Eddie Rosario, 100
Bill Ladson – Eddie Rosario, 100
Jessica Camerato – Eddie Rosario, 90
Spencer Nusbaum – Eddie Rosario, 90
Mark Zuckerman – Eddie Rosario, 65
Andrew Golden – Eddie Rosario, 54
Chelsea Janes – James Wood, 95
Correct answer: Talk about another snapshot at a specific moment in time. Coming out of spring training, it looked like Rosario was going to be the starting left fielder and probably hold that job for several months until either he was traded or one of the prospects was called up to replace him. Well, Rosario actually started in center field on Opening Day and ultimately started only 15 games in left field. Jesse Winker saw much more action in the first half, starting 62 games. But the job became Wood’s after his July 1 promotion, and the rookie wound up leading the team with 79 games started in left.
Winner: Though many of us expected Wood to start a good number of big league games, only one of us expected that to happen in left field. And that someone was Chelsea Janes, who wins this category.
WHO WILL START THE MOST GAMES IN CENTER FIELD? HOW MANY?
Chelsea Janes – Victor Robles, 132
Bill Ladson – James Wood, 110
Spencer Nusbaum – Victor Robles, 101
Bobby Blanco – Victor Robles, 95
Andrew Golden – Victor Robles, 88
Jessica Camerato – Victor Robles, 87
Craig Heist – Victor Robles, 80
Mark Zuckerman – James Wood, 79
Correct answer: Would this finally be the year Robles put it all together and realized his potential, solidifying his place as the Nationals’ everyday center fielder? No. Robles got hurt early, started only five games in center, plus five in right, and eventually found himself resurrecting his career in Seattle. Back here in D.C., Jacob Young got the opportunity to man center field before any of the organization’s top prospects arrived, and boy did he make the most of it. Young, who has a strong case to win the Gold Glove Award, started a whopping 142 games in center field this season.
Winner: Yeah, no.
LIST THESE PROSPECTS IN THE ORDER OF THEIR MLB DEBUTS: DYLAN CREWS, ROBERT HASSELL III, BRADY HOUSE, TREY LIPSCOMB, JAMES WOOD
Bobby Blanco – Lipscomb, Wood, Crews, Hassell, House
Jessica Camerato – Lipscomb, Wood, Crews, Hassell, House
Spencer Nusbaum – Lipscomb, Wood, Crews, Hassell, House
Chelsea Janes – Lipscomb, Wood, Crews, House, Hassell
Bill Ladson – Lipscomb, Wood, Crews, House, Hassell
Andrew Golden – Lipscomb, Wood, Hassell, Crews, House
Mark Zuckerman – Lipscomb, Wood, Hassell, Crews, House
Craig Heist – Wood, Crews, House, Lipscomb, Hassell
Correct answer: None of these prospects made the Opening Day roster, but Lipscomb made it one day later after Nick Senzel fractured his thumb. Wood was called up July 1 and never looked back. Crews’ much-hyped debut came Aug. 26 against the Yankees. Hassell and House, on the other hand, ended the season at Triple-A Rochester and will have to wait until 2025 to get the call.
Winner: Five different contestants (Blanco, Camerato, Nusbaum, James, Ladson) correctly had the first three guys debuting. We may have to carry this thing over to next season to see whether Hassell or House makes it to D.C. before the other.
WHO WILL LEAD THE PITCHING STAFF IN WINS? HOW MANY?
Bobby Blanco – MacKenzie Gore, 13
Andrew Golden – MacKenzie Gore, 12
Craig Heist – MacKenzie Gore, 12
Chelsea Janes – MacKenzie Gore, 12
Bill Ladson – Jake Irvin, 12
Mark Zuckerman – MacKenzie Gore, 11
Jessica Camerato – MacKenzie Gore, 10
Spencer Nusbaum – MacKenzie Gore, 10
Correct answer: No Nationals pitcher has won 11 games since 2019, but two member of this year’s staff had a chance to do it down the stretch: Gore and Irvin. Neither could get that final win, though, so both finished with an even 10 wins.
Winner: Camerato and Nusbaum accurately predicted 10 wins for Gore, though neither had faith in Irvin to match that number. Ladson did have faith in Irvin (too much, actually) but didn’t have faith in Gore. We’ll give it to Jess and Spencer, because they got Gore’s win total correct.
RANK THESE PITCHERS FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST ERA: PATRICK CORBIN, MACKENZIE GORE, JOSIAH GRAY, JAKE IRVIN
Bobby Blanco – Gore, Gray, Irvin, Corbin
Jessica Camerato – Gore, Gray, Irvin, Corbin
Spencer Nusbaum – Gore, Gray, Irvin, Corbin
Mark Zuckerman – Gore, Gray, Irvin, Corbin
Chelsea Janes – Gore, Gray, Corbin, Irvin
Andrew Golden – Gore, Irvin, Gray, Corbin
Craig Heist – Gore, Irvin, Gray, Corbin
Bill Ladson – Irvin, Gray, Gore, Corbin
Correct answer: The lowest ERA among the Nationals’ regular starters, of course, was someone who wasn’t even included in this category: Trevor Williams, who had an outstanding 2.03 mark in 13 starts. And then there were two rookies who debuted and outperformed several others: DJ Herz (4.16) and Mitchell Parker (4.29). But as far as the guys who we did actually ask about here … Gore was best of the group at 3.90, followed by Irvin at 4.41, Corbin at 5.62 and Gray (who made two ugly starts in April and missed the rest of the season due to injury, his ERA stuck on an unsightly 14.04).
Winner: Nobody got everyone in the correct order (but really, who could’ve predicted Gray’s situation?) but Golden and Heist at least had Gore and Irvin atop their lists in the proper order.
HOW MANY MLB STARTS WILL CADE CAVALLI MAKE?
Andrew Golden – 16
Bobby Blanco – 15
Mark Zuckerman – 15
Jessica Camerato – 12
Chelsea Janes – 10
Spencer Nusbaum – 7
Craig Heist – 6
Bill Ladson – 5
Correct answer: The initial plan was for Cavalli to return from Tommy John surgery in June, maybe July. Then a setback pushed his timeline back, perhaps to August or September. Until he ran out of time altogether and never did make what would have been only his second career big league start.
Winner: Though Ladson was the least optimistic of everyone (sense a recurring theme there?) he still predicted five starts out of Cavalli. Five more than Cavalli actually made. So, nobody wins.
WHO WILL LEAD THE TEAM IN SAVES? HOW MANY?
Mark Zuckerman – Kyle Finnegan, 31
Chelsea Janes – Kyle Finnegan, 27
Andrew Golden – Kyle Finnegan, 26
Bill Ladson – Hunter Harvey, 25
Jessica Camerato – Kyle Finnegan, 22
Bobby Blanco – Tanner Rainey, 18
Craig Heist – Kyle Finnegan, 17
Spencer Nusbaum – Hunter Harvey, 16
Correct answer: With a dominant first half that included his first career All-Star selection, Finnegan was on pace at one point for about 45 saves. He cooled off dramatically in the second half, though, and finished with 38. (Harvey, for what it’s worth, never recorded a save for the Nats, then notched only one for the Royals before suffering a back injury.)
Winner: Based on my All-Star prediction, I obviously had high hopes for Finnegan entering the season. Turns out I should’ve believed in him even more. I’ll take this win, though.
WHO WILL HIT THE MOST HOMERS AGAINST THE NATIONALS? HOW MANY?
Bill Ladson – Pete Alonso, 10
Bobby Blanco – Ronald Acuña Jr., 9
Andrew Golden – Ronald Acuña Jr., 6
Jessica Camerato – Ronald Acuña Jr., 6
Craig Heist, Pete Alonso, 6
Mark Zuckerman – Matt Olson, 6
Spencer Nusbaum – Bryce Harper, 5
Chelsea Janes – Matt Olson, 4
Correct answer: One of the Nationals’ biggest improvements in 2024 was the pitching staff’s ability to dramatically reduce the number of home runs surrendered. Because of that, nobody hit more than four homers against them this season. And the three guys who hit four weren’t exactly names you’d have expected: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Willson Contreras and Francisco Lindor.
Winner: I suppose Chelsea gets some credit for correctly predicting nobody would hit more than four homers against the Nats. But Olson hit only one, so you can’t really give her the win.
HOW WILL THE NL EAST FINISH FROM TOP TO BOTTOM?
Jessica Camerato – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
Andrew Golden – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
Chelsea Janes – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
Mark Zuckerman – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
Bobby Blanco – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, Nationals
Spencer Nusbaum – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, Nationals
Craig Heist – Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Nationals, Mets
Bill Ladson – Braves, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Marlins
Correct answer: For the first time since 2017, someone other than the Braves won the division. And that someone was the Phillies. The Braves and Mets both finished with 89 wins after that dramatic season-ending doubleheader, but the Braves technically finished second because they won the head-to-head season matchup. The Nationals finished out of the basement for the first time since 2019. And the Marlins brought up the rear with 100 losses.
Winner: Well, we all thought Atlanta would win the division again, and we were wrong. Almost everyone had Philly finishing at least second. And almost everyone had New York finishing no worse than third (except for Heist, who really botched that one). And most of us believed in Washington at least being better than Miami. But again, nobody can claim true victory here without having picked the Phillies at the top.
HOW MANY GAMES WILL THE NATIONALS WIN?
Jessica Camerato – 80
Craig Heist – 79
Mark Zuckerman – 76
Bobby Blanco – 75
Chelsea Janes – 70
Bill Ladson – 70
Andrew Golden – 68
Spencer Nusbaum – 66
Correct answer: One year after they finished 71-91, a 16-win improvement from the previous season, the Nationals finished … 71-91 again. It was a disappointing win total, for sure. But most objective observers have to acknowledge the franchise is in better shape now than it was a year ago.
Winner: It looked like this might come down to the wire, but the Nats’ rough September spoiled it for Bobby and me. So congrats to Chelsea and Bill, whose pessimism back on Opening Day was warranted.