For the second straight year, the Nationals and Victor Robles filed for arbitration. And for the second straight year, they ultimately avoided an actual arbitration hearing, agreeing to a salary figure before reaching the courtroom.

The Nats announced today they settled with Robles on a one-year contract for 2023, while also agreeing to a club option for 2024.

The deal establishes a $2.325 million salary for Robles this season, according to the Associated Press, only slightly more than the $2.3 million the team was offering him through arbitration. Robles had been seeking $2.6 million, with a hearing before a three-judge panel set to take place in the coming days. 

This whole process, of course, was quite familiar to both parties. One year ago, Robles and the Nationals filed for arbitration, the player seeking $2.1 million while the team offered $1.6 million. They wound up settling at $1.65 million before going to a hearing.

Robles proceeded to labor through another frustrating season, batting a mere .224 with six homers, 33 RBIs, a .273 on-base percentage and career-worst .584 OPS across 407 plate appearances. He did rediscover his top defensive form in center field, finishing with 12 Defensive Runs Saved while being named a finalist for the Gold Glove Award.

As the start of spring training gets closer and closer – pitchers and catchers report to West Palm Beach in a mere nine days! – we’re looking at how unpredictable the upcoming season could be for each member of the Nationals’ potential roster on an individual basis.

With few established players that look like sure things entering the year, there’s a wide variance of possibilities in each case. We looked at the nine likely members of the lineup Friday. Today, we look at the pitchers most likely to be in the mix for spots on the Opening Day roster.

Here’s the best-case and worst-case scenario for the 2023 season for each of them …

MACKENZIE GORE
Best case: His elbow back to full health, the lefty picks up where he left off during the first half of last season in San Diego. Over 30 starts, he maintains an ERA around 3.00, striking out more than one batter per inning and establishing himself as the young leader of this rotation moving forward.
Worst case: A return of elbow discomfort would really be worst-case, but even if his arm feels fine there’s still a fear of diminished velocity and stamina. A fastball in the low 90s, combined with less-than-ideal command, could leave the Nationals questioning if he really will live up to his billing long-term.

CADE CAVALLI
Best case: Fresh off a restful winter, with his major league debut already behind him, Cavalli proves he’s ready to stick in the big league for the long haul. The Nats are still careful with his workload, limiting him to 26 starts or 140 innings, but he makes the most of those outings with a sub-3.50 ERA and more than 150 strikeouts.
Worst case: Even with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, if he doesn’t maintain precise command, big league hitters will have success off that pitch. His secondary stuff helps bail him out sometimes, but a high WHIP leaves him looking like something less than a frontline starter.

The Nationals have added another experienced starter to a rotation depth chart that was lacking in that department, signing right-hander Chad Kuhl to a minor league contract with an invitation to big league camp later this month.

Kuhl, 30, has made 111 major league starts, the first 84 of which came for the Pirates from 2016-21. He spent last season with the Rockies, struggling to a 6-11 record and 5.72 ERA in 27 starts, though he did toss a three-hit shutout over the Dodgers on June 27 at Coors Field.

Kuhl actually totaled eight quality starts for Colorado, only one fewer than Patrick Corbin and Josiah Gray produced for the Nationals.

Somewhat surprisingly, though, the right-hander fared worse on the road than he did at home, going 3-7 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.693 WHIP away from Coors Field while going 3-4 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.399 WHIP at mile-high altitude.

During his five seasons in Pittsburgh, Kuhl went 25-30 with a 4.44 ERA. His best performance came in 2017, when he went 8-11 with a 4.35 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 31 starts.

When Sean Doolittle was traded to the Nationals on July 16, 2017, it was for sure a major change in his career. He was going from the last-place Athletics to the first-place Nats.

What he probably didn’t know at the time was that it was a major life change for him and his soon-to-be wife, Eireann Dolan.

Doolittle brought a lot of value to the Nationals in that trade with the Athletics in that he was under team control for three more seasons after the 2017 campaign ended. After recording a 2.40 ERA and 21 saves to help the Nats win the National League East in 2017, he pitched to a 3.20 ERA and 1.047 WHIP while striking out 132 and walking just 25 with 54 saves over the next three seasons.

Of course, he helped the Nationals win the 2019 World Series, and he was given the Good Guy Award as voted on by members of the local media in each of his first three full seasons with the club.

This offseason, he added some new hardware to his mantle. Doolittle and Dolan were both included in a group of 11 locals who were named Washingtonians of the Year by Washingtonian Magazine in December. It’s an annual honor the publication awards to people “who make our region an even better place.”

It’s never easy trying to predict how any ballplayer is going to perform in the coming season, but it feels like an especially difficult task trying to guess how the members of the Nationals’ projected lineup will perform in 2023.

Seriously, is there one sure thing in the entire group? One guy you can definitively say will reach certain statistical mileposts? It sure doesn’t look like it.

On the bright side, there’s the possibility for a lot of these players to have big seasons, whether youngsters realizing their potential or experienced hitters finding the form they displayed only a few years ago. On the down side, there’s also the possibility of complete disaster, from flash-in-the-pan candidates to supposedly highly touted youngsters failing to take that critical next step and enjoy success in the majors.

There’s a wide variance of possibilities for the 2023 Nationals lineup. You can see that when running through each player’s potential best-case and worst-case scenario for the coming year …

KEIBERT RUIZ
Best case: Up to 120 games started, with a batting average over .275, an increase in power to get his slugging percentage over .400, one of the highest caught-stealing percentages in the league and his first career All-Star selection.
Worst case: Nagging injuries prevent him from catching 100 games, he makes too much weak contact and bats .250 again with a .360 slugging percentage. Loses his magic touch behind the plate and tries to compensate by throwing too many balls away for costly errors.

While numerous outlets are releasing their latest top prospects rankings leading up to the start of spring training, it’s easy to keep track of how the Nationals farm system is improving on paper. But a lot of work needs to continue throughout this rebuild behind the scenes. Improvements under the surface that won’t show up in any prospect rankings.

The Nationals announced on Wednesday their minor league player development staff for the 2023 season. The roster includes some familiar faces, new names and new positions. Overseeing all of it are president of baseball operations and general manager Mike Rizzo, entering this 15th season as the head man, and director of player development De Jon Watson, entering his second season in this position after spending five seasons as a special assistant to the GM.

The familiar names include Matt LeCroy (Triple-A Rochester), Mario Lisson (High-A Wilmington) and Jake Lowery (Single-A Fredericksburg) returning to manage their respective affiliates. Field coordinator Bob Henley, pitching coordinator Sam Narron and catching coordinator Randy Knorr continue their long careers with the organization. And fan favorite Gerardo Parra enters his first full season as special assistant to Rizzo after being named to the position last year.

A lot of new names are taking over the staff at Double-A Harrisburg, headlined by manager Delino DeShields replacing Tripp Keister, who was fired this offseason after 11 years with the organization. A first-round pick by the Expos in the 1987 draft, DeShields joins the Nats after spending the last 14 seasons in various roles in the Reds organization. Joel Hanrahan also joins Harrisburg as the pitching coach after flipping spots with Justin Lord, who now holds the same position at Fredericksburg.

Among the new roles added to the player development department this year are an assistant director of player development technology and strategy (Patrick Coghlan), a player development analyst (Allen Ho), a senior biomechanist (Bill Johnson), a biomechanist (Brittany Mills) and a performance analyst at each minor league affiliate. The performance analysts will help use data from the Hawk-Eye machines tracking players at Nationals Park, all of the organization's minor league stadiums and their facility in West Palm Beach.

The Nationals added another experienced pitcher to their growing spring training roster Tuesday, signing right-hander Wily Peralta to a minor league deal with an invitation to big league camp.

Peralta, 33, joins an expanding list of veterans who will get a chance to compete for a spot on the Opening Day pitching staff, his addition coming on the heels of a comparable minor league contract given to reliever Alex Colome late last week.

It remains to be seen what kind of role the Nationals have in mind for Peralta, who has been a starter most of his career but pitched out of the bullpen last season for the Tigers.

A 17-game winner for the Brewers in 2014, Peralta has spent his entire career pitching in the Midwest. After six seasons in Milwaukee, he went to Kansas City in 2018 and served as a reliever for the Royals for two seasons. He then moved on to Detroit, initially signing minor league deals prior to both the 2021 and 2022 seasons but pitching his way onto the big league roster in each case.

Peralta compiled some disparate stats in 28 appearances last year. He posted an impressive 2.58 ERA but did so while seeing his WHIP climb to 1.513. The biggest problem: He walked 24 batters in only 38 1/3 innings.

There was a time, believe it or not, when Joe Ross looked like he might prove just as valuable to the Nationals as Trea Turner. Maybe even more so.

When Mike Rizzo swooped into trade talks between the Rays and Padres in December 2014 and helped those two teams complete a deal that sent Wil Myers to San Diego and several prospects to Tampa Bay, most attention was focused on Turner, who couldn’t even officially be part of the trade for another six months because he had just been drafted that year.

But Ross was no secondary piece. A first-round pick of the Padres himself, the right-hander was a highly touted prospect in his own right, and after posting impressive numbers at every level of the minors he earned a promotion to D.C. in June 2015.

Three starts into his big league career, Ross had two wins, a 2.66 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings. And by the end of the 2016 season, just as Turner was beginning to make a name for himself as a dynamic center fielder for the Nats, Ross was the proud owner of a 12-10 record, 3.52 ERA and 1.222 WHIP across 181 2/3 innings.

He looked like he was going to entrench himself as a key part of a star-studded Nationals rotation for years to come.

When he made the decision in July to have a relatively new and somewhat unproven procedure on his injured left elbow, Sean Doolittle was confident he’d be ready to pitch again come spring training. But because he was going to be a free agent at season’s end, he figured he’d still be unemployed in late-January, hoping he could show enough progress in his rehab to convince some club to sign him shortly before camps opened.

Instead, Doolittle found himself last week packing his things for an early departure to West Palm Beach, Fla. The left-hander and his wife, Eireen Dolan, are about to report to camp two weeks before pitchers and catchers are required to arrive, having known since early-November he was returning to the Nationals on a minor league deal with a good shot to make the Opening Day roster.

“It was a bit of a surprise,” Doolittle said in an interview for MASN’s Nationals Hot Stove Show. “I was mentally prepared to go through the offseason and then have to show teams I was ready for camp sometime in January or early-February. Maybe do like a showcase bullpen, or something like that. So it was best-case scenario when they reached out.”

Knowing he wouldn’t need to worry about where he was going to pitch in 2023, Doolittle instead spent all winter preparing himself to pitch again. After completing a five-month rehab program following the internal brace procedure he underwent in July, he began throwing off a bullpen mound just after Christmas. He has since thrown about 10 more, gradually increasing the volume and the intensity of his pitches.

All of which should leave Doolittle reporting for camp in shape no different than any other healthy pitcher on the roster.

In some respects, the Nationals’ signing of veteran reliever Alex Colomé to a minor league deal Friday makes perfect sense. Why wouldn’t this team take a chance on a 34-year-old with 159 saves and a 3.34 ERA over 446 career big league appearances, especially on a contract that won’t cost them anything unless he makes the club out of spring training?

But will he actually make the club? Is there room for Colomé in a bullpen that already looked plenty deep on paper prior to his signing?

The unquestioned strength of the Nationals during a dismal 2022 season, the bullpen returns almost entirely intact in 2023. Kyle Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr. and Hunter Harvey all avoided arbitration and agreed to affordable one-year deals. Erasmo Ramirez, so valuable last season as a jack of all trades, re-signed for a guaranteed $1 million, with the possibility of earning another $1 million in incentives.

Mason Thompson, who impressed in limited big league time last season, is back and should be given a good look as a potential long-term piece. Thad Ward, the top pick in the Rule 5 draft, has to make the team and stay in the majors or else be offered back to the Red Sox. And conventional wisdom suggests the Nats will keep either Paolo Espino or Cory Abbott as a long reliever and emergency starter.

So that’s seven spots right there, and we haven’t even mentioned Sean Doolittle, attempting to return from an elbow procedure and serve as the only left-hander in the 'pen. Or Victor Arano and Jordan Weems, who seemingly are in the mix but are likely saddled by the fact each still has minor league options.

The writing has been on the wall all offseason. Baseball has changed over recent years, and the Nationals have committed to adapting to it.

Versatility is the name of the game.

Gone are the days managers would trot out the same eight defenders in their same designated positions along with a starting pitcher expected to go seven or eight innings every day over the course of a 162-game season.

Now it’s all about getting more bang for your buck. Can a player fill multiple roles? Can he play all over the infield, or both the infield and the outfield? Can a fringe starting pitcher also be a swing man out of the bullpen?

Find a way to keep your best players fresh and on the field as much as possible based on what the matchups dictate.

The Nationals added another experienced reliever this afternoon to what already looked like a deep bullpen, signing veteran right-hander Alex Colomé to a minor league deal with an invitation to big league camp.

Colomé, 34, isn’t guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster and will have to prove himself during spring training. But his lengthy track record as a late-inning reliever should give him a leg up over others trying to break camp with the club.

The Nationals have long been intrigued by Colomé, his name having come up several times in the past when they were searching for late-inning help at the trade deadline. Only now, on the heels of back-to-back rough seasons with the Twins and Rockies, is he finally joining the club.

Owner of 159 career saves, Colomé was an All-Star with a 1.91 ERA in 2016 and closed out 47 games for the Rays in 2017, leading the league.

Traded the following year to the Mariners – along with former Nationals center fielder Denard Span – he continued to enjoy success in Seattle and then in Chicago with the White Sox. At the end of the 2020 season, he sported a 2.95 ERA and 1.177 WHIP across 326 big league appearances.

The Nationals’ moves so far this winter have almost exclusively involved one-year deals. Only right-hander Trevor Williams (two years, $13 million) got more than a one-year commitment from the Nats, who signed Jeimer Candelario ($5 million), Corey Dickerson ($2.25 million) and Dominic Smith ($2 million) each to short-term contracts.

There are no bad one-year deals. So say many baseball executives, justifying even the high-salary contracts to players who don’t pan out as worthy because of the lack of the kind of long-term commitment that can hamper a franchise.

Some one-year deals, however, are better than others. Sometimes, a team can turn a minimal payout into quality production (and maybe even flip a player at the trade deadline for a prospect). And sometimes, a team can waste a large chunk of money on a guy who doesn’t live up to his potential and loses whatever trade value he might have had.

The Nationals have signed plenty of free agents to one-year deals in their history. Which were the best? Which were the worst? (Note: We’re only talking about free agents who played somewhere else the previous season and signed major league contracts with the Nats. No players who re-signed, and no players who signed minor league contracts included for these purposes.)

Here’s one humble reporter’s take …

After a dismal year in D.C., César Hernández will try to resurrect his career by making Detroit’s roster off a minor league deal.

Hernández agreed to a non-guaranteed contract with an invitation to big league camp Wednesday, according to multiple reports. If he makes the Tigers’ roster, he’ll earn a $1.5 million salary, with the possibility of another $1.85 million in performance bonuses.

It’s a steep drop-off in financial security for the 32-year-old infielder, who got a $4 million major league deal with the Nationals last winter and was handed the Opening Day job at second base.

Hernández never lived up to the billing. His .629 OPS was his lowest since 2014, when he was still trying to make it with the Phillies. After launching 21 homers for the White Sox and Cleveland in 2021, he homered just once for the Nats, and that blast didn’t come until Sept. 4 in his 124th game played.

In spite of his struggles, Hernández actually took more plate appearances than any other member of the Nationals last season, coming up to bat 617 times. He remained the everyday second baseman into late August, at which point the team was finally ready to go with a young middle infield combo of CJ Abrams and Luis García. Hernández wound up seeing some playing time in left field down the stretch.

Eighteen seasons into their existence, the Nationals can only claim one former player who was inducted to the Hall of Fame. And while Ivan Rodriguez’s Cooperstown case was rock solid, few really remember the great catcher for the two seasons he spent in D.C. at the end of his career.

It’ll be a while longer before any other former Nats are elected. Figure it’ll be at least seven years until Max Scherzer completes both his contract with the Mets and then the requisite five-year waiting period to become eligible. And if Max has anything to say about it, he has no intention of retiring in two years anyway.

It’ll take even longer before the likes of Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon end their careers. Besides, each of them still has plenty of work to do to solidify his resume, with Soto and Harper in the best position of the four at the moment and Rendon desperately needing to right his wayward ship since he left Washington for Anaheim.

So, the Nationals’ representation in Cooperstown may stay minimal for some time.

But what about honoring former players who don’t really have a Hall of Fame case but still left an indelible impact on the franchise? There’s a longer list of those players, and maybe as the Nats’ approach their third decade in town it’s time to start thinking about them more.

Every Hall of Fame ballot is different. Some years, they’re stacked with qualified candidates, leading at times to a forced paring down of choices to adhere to the Hall’s longstanding rule against voting for more than 10 players. Some years, they’re lacking in obvious choices, which can lead to only a handful of votes and unfortunately no new inductees.

The 2023 ballot leaned more toward the latter description than the former.

Of the 28 names up for consideration – a big drop from the 35-player ballot of 2019 – there were no absolute, slam-dunk choices, no clear first-time electees who don’t even require a moment of research before placing a checkmark next to their name.

There were 14 newcomers to this ballot, and the most notable of them (Carlos Beltran) carried with him the stigma of the 2017 Astros’ electronic sign-stealing scandal. There were 14 returning players who received at least 5 percent support last year, and the best among those were longtime hopefuls Scott Rolen, Todd Helton and Billy Wagner. There were better players than those eligible for election, but each was tainted by the stain of performance enhancing drug usage (Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield).

The end result of all that: Rolen was the only player who crossed the sacred 75 percent threshold this year. And he barely did, named on 76.3 percent of ballots. Helton came up just short, receiving 72.2 percent support, with Wagner following him at 68.1 percent.

It’s Hall of Fame election day, and while there aren’t any real significant Nationals ties this year – aside from Jayson Werth making the ballot for the first time – it’s still the biggest story around the baseball world for the next 24 hours. So, let’s take this opportunity to look ahead to what may transpire.

The official announcement is scheduled for 6 p.m. Eastern on MLB Network, but the votes have all been in since Dec. 31. There were 28 players on this year’s ballot, 14 of them holdovers who received at least 5 percent support last year, plus 14 newcomers making their ballot debuts.

We already know the Class of 2023 will include Fred McGriff, the lone player elected last month by the Contemporary Era Committee. That committee, made up of 16 Hall of Famers, baseball executives and veteran media members/historians, overwhelmingly voted not to elect Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling (among others), who all had failed to reach the required 75 percent support threshold on the Baseball Writers Association of America ballot over a 10-year period.

With those noteworthy, controversial candidates passed off to the Era Committee, this year’s BBWAA ballot felt a little less dramatic than in the past. But don’t worry, it still presented several controversial cases, including one for a brand-new reason that never had to be considered before.

I once again had the privilege of voting, and as always, I’ll publish my full ballot and reasons why I voted for or against everyone on the ballot after the official announcement this evening. Until then, here’s a primer to get you set for the festivities …

As much as the Nationals pitching staff struggled last season, there was always an underlying question in the back of coaches and front office members’ minds: How much did bad defense contribute to those struggles?

Statistically, the Nats pitching staff was the worst in the majors in 2022. So, too, was the team’s defense.

Until mid-August, that is, at which point things took a distinct turn in a positive direction.

On Aug. 15, the Nationals promoted CJ Abrams from Triple-A Rochester. One of the prized prospects acquired from the Padres in the Juan Soto blockbuster trade two weeks earlier, Abrams immediately was handed the starting shortstop job. And he immediately paid dividends.

On the morning of Aug. 15, the Nationals pitching staff sported a 5.30 ERA while also watching opponents score .45 unearned runs per game. From that day through the remainder of the season, the staff ERA dropped to a far more respectable 4.26, with opponents now scoring .39 unearned runs per game.

At least two members of the Nationals’ projected Opening Day roster are expected to participate in this spring’s World Baseball Classic, with Joey Meneses and Erasmo Ramirez among those named to their home countries’ preliminary rosters.

Meneses (Mexico) and Ramirez (Nicaragua) were formally included on the WBC preliminary rosters that were reported Friday. Barring injury, each should hold a prominent role on his country’s national team for this spring’s tournament.

Meneses, who became something of a celebrity back home during his stunning two-month debut with the Nationals late last season, is likely to be Mexico’s starting first baseman and hit somewhere in the middle of the lineup. Ramirez, who was named Nats’ Pitcher of the Year after posting a 2.92 ERA in 86 1/3 innings, could start for Nicaragua even though he’ll again be a member of the Nationals bullpen this season.

Players who participate in the WBC could miss a significant chunk of spring training, depending on how far their teams advance in the tournament.

Mexico will compete in Pool C (along with the United States, Canada, Colombia and Great Britain), with pool play scheduled for March 11-15 in Phoenix following several days of workouts and exhibitions. Nicaragua (which qualified for the first time) is competing in the powerhouse Pool D (along with the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and Israel), with games in Miami, also scheduled for March 11-15 following several days of workouts and exhibitions.

Joey Meneses took the Nationals and the major leagues by storm over the season’s final two months last year. The 30-year-old rookie had spent 10 years in the minors, Mexican and Japanese professional leagues before having his contract selected by the Nationals and making his major league debut on Aug. 2 against the Mets.

Not many people knew who Meneses was when he was introduced as the starting first baseman batting sixth that night at Nationals Park. Most fans were still lamenting over the trade that sent Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres earlier that day.

But Meneses made sure Nats fans knew who he was by the end of the game, hitting a leadoff home run in the bottom of the seventh to secure a 5-1 win over the first-place Mets. With that longball, he became the first Mexican-born player and the fifth-oldest player in major league history to homer in his major league debut.

And he never looked back.

From that point on, Meneses was second in the National League with 72 hits, a .324 average and a .930 OPS. He was tied for fourth in the league with 13 home runs and tied for fifth with 27 extra-base hits.