Happy Thanksgiving, Nationals fans!

To celebrate the holiday, I’m going to take a break from my usual prospect reviews (there are only seven left!) and look back on the 2023 year for reasons the Nats and you should be thankful.

Is a 71-91 season reason to celebrate? Of course not. But the organization did make some significant strides in this crucial rebuilding year.

Let’s start with that final record. Although still 20 games under .500, it was a 16-game improvement from the dreadful 55-107 record in 2022.

While still a last-place finish, their fourth in a row since winning the 2019 World Series, many outlets had the Nats barely winning 60 games at the beginning of the season. Eclipsing 70 wins was a major step forward for the major league club, setting up higher expectations for 2024.

PROSPECT REVIEW: DJ HERZ

Age on opening day 2024: 23

How acquired: Traded with Kevin Made from Cubs for Jeimer Candelario and cash in July 2023; originally drafted in eighth round by Cubs in 2019 from Terry Sanford High School in Fayetteville, N.C.

Ranking: No. 16 per MLB Pipeline, No. 25 per Baseball America

MLB ETA: 2024
* Projected by MLB Pipeline

The Hall of Fame’s 2024 ballot was revealed Monday, with 12 new candidates joining 14 returning candidates up for this year’s election by members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

The list includes several first-timers with compelling cases: Adrián Beltré, Chase Utley, Joe Mauer. Headlining the group of returning candidates are Todd Helton, Billy Wagner and Andruw Jones, plus some all-time greats whose chances have been marred by connections to performance enhancing drugs (Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield) or other off-the-field controversies (Carlos Beltrán, Omar Vizquel).

Here’s what the list does not include, though: Anybody with any Nationals connection.

Not that the Nats typically are well-represented in these matters. Only one person who played for them since 2005 has been elected to the Hall: Iván Rodríguez. Only a few others who made any kind of real impression in D.C. (Adam Dunn, Liván Hernández, Jayson Werth, Jonathan Papelbon, Alfonso Soriano) have appeared on a ballot, and none of those came anywhere close to getting elected.

But it’s kind of unfortunate to look at a Hall of Fame ballot some 19 years after the Nationals debuted and see nobody who wore a curly W cap included.

When gauging where the Nationals stand in their rebuilding efforts, the simplest answer is to look at their won-loss record since the process began. They went 65-97 in 2021 while starting to tear down the roster. They bottomed out at 55-107 in 2022 after trading Juan Soto. Then they started the climb back up toward contention with a 71-91 record this season, positioning themselves to take another key step forward that could have them on the fringes of contention in 2024.

And there’s nothing wrong with that approach. Sometimes, it’s important to judge a team against itself, not anybody else.

But we do have to acknowledge an important caveat here: The Nats do not exist in a vacuum. They’re one of five teams in the National League East division, one of 15 teams in the NL. Their success ultimately is dependent in many ways on how those other teams do, whether they’re trying to win the division or finish with one of the three best records in the NL among non-division winners to secure a wild card berth.

The Nationals could be better next season, a lot better, and it may not matter if enough other teams in the NL remain ahead of them in the standings.

Which makes their geographic location a bit of a hindrance to the whole rebuild process. As a member of the NL East, the Nats face some additional challenges they wouldn’t face in another division.

PROSPECT REVIEW: TRAVIS SYKORA

Age on opening day 2024: 19

How acquired: Drafted in third round in 2023 from Round Rock High School in Round Rock, Texas

Ranking: No. 11 per MLB Pipeline, No. 11 per Baseball America

MLB ETA: 2027
* Projected by MLB Pipeline

Major League Baseball, for all its warts, can stake claim to something no other major North American professional sports league can claim: Very few franchise relocations in recent times.

For five decades, in fact, there was only one MLB relocation: the Expos’ move to Washington prior to the 2005 season to become the Nationals. In spite of all of the sport’s other issues, this was a particular point of pride for baseball when comparing itself to the NFL, NBA and NHL.

And then came this week’s news of MLB owners unanimously approving the Athletics’ plan to relocate from Oakland to Las Vegas, and all of a sudden an issue that has barely been on baseball’s mind for a half-century is now the predominant story in the sport.

Baseball, of course, experienced plenty of franchise relocations prior to this long run of stability. The 1950s saw the Dodgers and Giants head west, the Braves move from Boston to Milwaukee, the St. Louis Browns become the Baltimore Orioles and the A’s transfer from Philadelphia to Kansas City. The 1960s then saw the original Senators become the Minnesota Twins, while the Braves (Milwaukee to Atlanta) and A’s (Kansas City to Oakland) relocated again. And the early 1970s saw the Seattle Pilots become the Milwaukee Brewers after only one season and the expansion Senators bolt for Texas to be rebranded as the Rangers.

But that’s ancient history at this point. Modern baseball has been defined by the stability of its franchises, and the addition of expansion teams to grow the league to an even 30 organizations. So the Oakland-to-Vegas announcement feels like a really big deal because in this sport it is a really big deal.

Baseball’s second significant roster deadline of the week comes this evening, when teams are required to tender contracts to all players on the 40-man roster who aren’t already signed for the upcoming season.

Tendering a contract doesn’t mean actually agreeing to a 2024 salary. That process can still take place over the next two months, with any cases that aren’t settled ultimately heading to arbitration. This first step merely involves a team indicating its intention to sign a player for another season.

And the vast majority of these cases are cut-and-dried. Almost everyone involved in this process will have his contract tendered by the end of the day. Anyone who doesn’t get tendered … well, that’s the real newsworthy event.

Dozens of players across the sport get “non-tendered” every year on this date. Most are arbitration-eligible and due to earn more money via standard raises than the club is willing to pay after disappointing performances, making them free agents who can then sign anywhere they like.

The Nationals used this to their advantage last winter. They not only non-tendered Luke Voit, Erick Fedde and Tommy Romero, they wound up signing two players who were non-tendered by other clubs: Jemier Candelario and Dominic Smith.

At this point 12 months ago, the Nationals had three holes to fill in their 2023 starting lineup. They needed a left fielder. They needed a third baseman. And, after choosing not to tender a contract to Luke Voit, they needed a first baseman (or designated hitter).

Mike Rizzo promptly filled all three of those holes in the form of Corey Dickerson, Jeimer Candelario and Dominic Smith, who combined made less than $10 million. One of them worked out wonderfully and was flipped at the trade deadline for a pitching prospect who could make his major league debut next season. The other two didn’t work out at all, with Dickerson injured and unproductive and out of a job by early August, and Smith offering smooth defensive work but not nearly enough offense at a traditionally offense-first position.

So as they progress into the heart of this offseason, the Nationals find themselves yet again with three lineup holes to fill. They need a left fielder. They need a third baseman. And, after choosing to designate Smith for assignment this week, they need a first baseman (or DH).

There are, to be fair, some potential in-house options at each position. Stone Garrett could be the starting left fielder, but how confident is the team in his ability to be 100 percent recovered from a gruesome broken leg by Opening Day? Carter Kieboom or Ildemaro Vargas or Jake Alu could be the third baseman, but none provides the kind of assured offense you’d think the Nats prefer at that position. And they could make Joey Meneses their regular first baseman and hope his defense is good enough, but even then, would still need to find another DH.

So, it feels like Rizzo is probably going to be looking once again to fill all three of those holes from outside the organization.

We knew there would be news Tuesday, what with the Nationals facing a late-afternoon deadline to add players to the 40-man roster and protect them from being lost in the Rule 5 draft. We didn’t know there would be quite this much news, though.

While the promotions of pitchers DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker, Cole Henry and Zach Brzykcy to the 40-man roster were newsworthy, the bigger story wound up being one of the corresponding moves made to clear spots for those prospects: Dominic Smith was designated for assignment.

This isn’t to suggest Smith was always a lock to return in 2024 after a very disappointing 2023 at the plate. But here’s what Mike Rizzo had to say when asked during the season’s final week about the roles both Smith and Jeimer Candelario played after they were signed the previous winter:

“Dom’s shown that his leadership in the infield, I think he’s made our young infielders much, much better and much more confident defensively,” Rizzo said. “And he’s starting to show some power late in the season. Those are always the type of people that you want to acquire, and guys that when you’re at this point in the rebuild, I thought was important for us to acquire.”

Smith was never supposed to be part of the long-term plan around here. But with no obvious replacement at first base waiting in the wings and based on the way both Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez talked about him at season’s end, it felt like he would be back for another year.

The Nationals chose to protect four prospects, all pitchers, from being lost in the upcoming Rule 5 draft. To do so, they cut ties with three players who ended the season on their major league roster, most notably first baseman Dominic Smith.

Smith and right-hander Cory Abbott were both designated for assignment today, with reliever Andrés Machado granted his unconditional release as well to pursue opportunities in Japan. The team then used those three open slots, plus one that already was open, to add left-handers DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker, plus right-handers Cole Henry and Zach Brzykcy, to their 40-man roster. That ensures none of those four prospects can be lost in next month’s Rule 5 draft.

The decision to drop Smith came as the biggest surprise of the day, considering the manner in which club officials spoke up the first baseman’s defensive value and clubhouse leadership this season in spite of his offensive struggles. Signed for $2 million last winter after the Mets chose not to tender him a contract, Smith hit .254/.326/.366 with 12 homers, 46 RBIs and a .692 OPS in 153 games for the Nats. Six of his 12 homers came in September alone, leaving the 28-year-old with some hope he had solved the power woes he endured for the majority of the season.

Even with those woes at the plate, Smith was lauded for his glove work at first base, where he produced five Defensive Runs Saved and was a calming influence for young infielders CJ Abrams, Luis García and Carter Kieboom.

Smith was eligible for arbitration and was projected to make roughly $4 million through that process. Now, the Nationals will be in the market for a new first baseman for the second straight offseason, likely prioritizing power from that corner position to help bolster a lineup that hit a National League-worst 151 homers this year. They could also move Joey Meneses full-time to first base and seek a new designated hitter.

There are two significant roster-related deadline days across baseball this week. On Friday, all teams must tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, with the possibility looming that some could be non-tendered. But before we get to that, today all teams must decide which of their prospects they want to add to their 40-man rosters in order to protect them from being lost in the Rule 5 draft.

This is a day that usually didn’t garner much attention from the Nationals’ perspective when they were consistent contenders and basically sat out the Rule 5 draft for a decade. But it became important again last year, both because they owned (and used) the No. 1 pick in the draft and because they had a high number of prospects they wanted to protect, forcing them to part ways with several big leaguers.

A refresher course, for those who don’t remember how this works: The Rule 5 draft gives teams the opportunity to select unprotected minor leaguers away from other clubs for $100,000, with one critical caveat: Any player selected must remain on the major league roster the entire season (90 days on the active roster) or else be offered back to the original club.

The Nats, who hadn’t selected a Rule 5 player since 2010, finally got back in the game last year by taking Thaddeus Ward with the first overall pick. The right-hander missed several months with a shoulder injury but met the required standard by staying on the active roster enough to remain with the organization, which can now option him to Triple-A if it wants.

The Nationals did not, however, have anyone selected away from them in last year’s Rule 5 draft, evidence perhaps of some smart decisions they made to protect certain players and perhaps of the lack of big-league-ready talent further down the organizational depth chart.

The Nationals, like pretty much every other team in the major leagues, could use some pitching help entering next season. They would love to add an experienced starter to a rotation that, while improved from a year ago, still was lacking in many ways.

Saying you’re interested in adding a veteran starter, however, is very different from actually adding a veteran starter. And the term “veteran starter” can mean a whole lot of different things.

Are we talking about a top-of-the-rotation guy, someone who could lead this staff for years to come? Are we talking about a middle-of-the-rotation guy, a solid-but-unspectacular pitcher who takes the ball every fifth day and usually gives you a chance to win? Are we talking about a back-of-the-rotation guy, a stopgap solution who may not even make it through the entire season?

We don’t know specifically yet what the Nationals have in mind. But if we look back at Mike Rizzo’s track record, we can probably get an idea about the type of pitcher he usually pursues. And the type of pitcher he usually ignores.

Since becoming general manager in 2009, Rizzo has signed nine starting pitchers as major league free agents: Jason Marquis and Chien-Ming Wang in 2010, Edwin Jackson in 2012, Dan Haren in 2013, Max Scherzer in 2015, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez in 2019, Jon Lester in 2021 and Trevor Williams in 2023.

It’s not uncommon for a veteran manager to make changes to his coaching staff. It is somewhat uncommon, though, for a veteran manager to make changes to his coaching staff after he was just given his own contract extension near the end of a season most consider to have been more successful than the previous one.

When word got out last month the Nationals weren’t bringing back four of the eight coaches from Davey Martinez’s staff for next season, it raised at least a few eyebrows. But it also felt appropriate to withhold judgment until those positions were filled, at which point everyone could better understand what was intended all along.

Well, now we know what the full 2024 staff will look like. Out is longtime bench coach Tim Bogar, replaced by former White Sox bench coach (and interim manager) Miguel Cairo. Out is third base coach Gary DiSarcina, replaced from within by run prevention coordinator Ricky Gutierrez. Out is first base coach Eric Young Jr., replaced from within by fan favorite and briefly special assistant to the general manager Gerardo Parra. And out is longtime assistant hitting coach Pat Roessler, replaced by former White Sox assistant hitting coach and big league third baseman Chris Johnson.

Two in-house replacements. Two outside additions. Two with prior big league coaching experience. Two with no prior big league coaching experience. Two former infielders replaced by two former infielders. One former outfielder replaced by a former outfielder.

And what conclusions, if any, can we draw from all this? Martinez hasn’t publicly spoken about the changes yet. Mike Rizzo declined to comment Wednesday about the coaching moves because they hadn’t been officially announced yet, but in referencing the overhaul of his scouting and player development departments he told reporters at the GM meetings in Arizona: “I think change is good. I think that we needed a refresh to a lot of parts of our baseball operations department, and we did. We’ve never been afraid to make moves … We brought in a lot of good people, and I think there’s going to be a different look, and I think it’s going to be really effective.”

PROSPECT REVIEW: JARLIN SUSANA

Age on opening day 2024: 20

How acquired: Traded with MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, James Wood, Robert Hassell III and Luke Voit from Padres for Juan Soto and Josh Bell in August 2022; originally signed as international free agent by Padres from Dominican Republic, January 2022

Ranking: No. 12 per MLB Pipeline, No. 10 per Baseball America

MLB ETA: 2025
* Projected by MLB Pipeline

The Nationals announced their 2024 coaching staff today, officially making four changes while ostensibly eliminating one position that had been created this year.

Davey Martinez will have a new bench coach (Miguel Cairo), third base coach (Ricky Gutierrez), first base coach (Gerardo Parra) and assistant hitting coach (Chris Johnson) by his side next season. They join four holdovers who return to their same positions: pitching coach Jim Hickey, hitting coach Darnell Coles, bullpen coach Ricky Bones and catching and strategy coach Henry Blanco.

In the end, the Nationals chose to replace Tim Bogar, Gary DiSarcina, Eric Young Jr. and Pat Roessler with two in-house promotions and two outside hires.

The hiring of Cairo, Gutierrez and Parra had previously been reported. Cairo, 49, becomes Martinez’s right-hand man in the dugout, the former longtime utilityman joining the Nats after spending 2021-22 as the White Sox’s bench coach (and interim manager when Tony La Russa took medical leave) and 2023 as the Mets’ minor league infield coordinator.

Gutierrez spent this season in the dugout as well as the Nats’ newly created run prevention coordinator. The 53-year-old former big league infielder was responsible for working with CJ Abrams and Luis García in the field, and he’ll continue to coach the team’s infielders while also replacing DiSarcina as third base coach. He has never coached third base in the majors but has done so in the minors as manager of the Reds’ Double-A affiliate in 2020-21.

The offseason is officially underway, and though the Nationals (or any other club) have yet to acquire any new players, they have been busy. They've made several significant moves with their front office. They've replaced three members of the coaching staff. They've made some required 40-man roster moves, with some more to come next week.

This has the potential to be a fascinating winter for the Nats, depending on how they decide to approach things. Are they content with the status quo until the top prospects are big-league ready? Are they pondering some bigger moves that would be made not only with 2024 in mind but beyond? Will the Stephen Strasburg retirement saga ever be resolved?

I can't promise I have the answer to every one of those questions (or any others), but I can promise I'll do my best to answer them with as much insight as I have at my disposal. So go ahead and submit your questions in the comments section below, then check back for my responses ...

After a sustained run as one of baseball’s highest-spending clubs, the Nationals have morphed into one of the sport’s lower-spending clubs over the last 12 months. Given the state of the franchise’s rebuild, that’s not unexpected. Teams focused on identifying young pieces for the future don’t boast high payrolls.

But the question remains on the minds of so many right now: When will the Nats decide it’s time to spend big again, and what will that look like?

Reading tea leaves from club officials, it doesn’t sound like a splurge is coming this winter. They’re still focused on identifying those long-term parts to the puzzle. Once they have a better sense what they already have, they may be more inclined to spend money to acquire what they don’t have.

But even if they don’t go big yet, there’s reason to believe payroll will increase in 2024. Not by a lot, but some.

First, some background: From 2013-21, the Nationals ranked in the top 10 in the majors in end-of-season payroll every year, with a club record $205 million payroll (fourth-highest in baseball) during the 2019 World Series run.

We don’t know yet how the Nationals are going to approach this offseason. Is there a chance they spend big on a free agent? Are they going to stick with their approach from last winter and sign several stopgap players to one-year contracts? What positions are they targeting most?

We’ll learn in the coming weeks and months how exactly this is going to play out, but as the true offseason gets underway this week, it’s helpful to look at what the Nats currently have as a guide for what they might now want to add.

And that doesn’t just mean what they have at the big league level. Now more than ever, the presence of top prospects in Double-A or Triple-A who could be close to arriving in D.C. can and should affect how Mike Rizzo and Co. approach the Hot Stove League. If they think they’ve got a long-term answer at third base waiting to make his major league debut, they probably aren’t going to sign a free agent for more than one year. If they don’t think they’ve got an in-house answer at first base, they might well decide it is appropriate to make a long-term commitment to someone from the outside.

So let’s take an opportunity this morning to look at the Nationals’ organizational depth chart, position by position. The top players listed are currently on the 40-man roster. Players who follow with an asterisk next to their names are not on the 40-man roster (though some could be added next week when the team needs to protect them from being lost in the Rule 5 Draft).

CATCHER
Keibert Ruiz
Riley Adams
Drew Millas
Israel Pineda
Brady Lindsly*
Onix Vega*

After filling two vacant spots on their coaching staff with in-house promotions, the Nationals are now filling a prime vacancy with a notable outside name.

Miguel Cairo will be Davey Martinez’s new bench coach, a source familiar with the decision confirmed, reuniting the former Tampa Bay teammates and giving Martinez another experienced voice in the dugout.

Cairo, 49, spent this season as the Mets minor league infield instructor, but he spent the previous two seasons as the White Sox bench coach, ultimately taking over as interim manager for several months while Tony La Russa dealt with a medical issue.

A veteran of 17 big league seasons with nine different organizations from 1996-2012, Cairo was a well-regarded utility infielder who played all around the diamond. He was still a young player when he and Martinez (then nearing the end of his career) were teammates with the then-Devil Rays from 1998-2000 and forged a friendship.

Martinez has spoken highly of Cairo in the past and lobbied for him to get the White Sox’s full-time managerial job after La Russa retired. Chicago instead hired Pedro Grifol for the position, leaving Cairo to find employment with the Mets instead.

Organizational prospect rankings are by nature ever-changing. Top prospects reach the big leagues and watch their careers take off. New draft picks join the list and leapfrog other established players. Some once-touted prospects lose their steam and disappear off the radar.

But it’s notable how much the Nationals’ prospect rankings have changed in the last two years, growing from one of the least-touted groups in baseball to one that is now turning a whole lot of heads.

And it’s not necessarily all the same names everyone assumed would top the list not that long ago.

Baseball America unveiled its 2024 Top 10 ranking Monday, and while most of the names include on the list come as no surprise, the order they are listed does include a few surprises.

Headlining the group is the newest member of the organization: Dylan Crews. As one would expect, the No. 2 overall pick in this summer’s draft immediately takes over as the No. 1 prospect in the Nationals organization. (He should be a top-10 prospect in the sport once that list is unveiled later this winter.)