When it was revealed Tuesday evening the Nationals had won the Draft Lottery, it was immediately appropriate to mention the two previous times this club held the No. 1 pick and the two iconic players who were selected with those picks.
Obviously, the Nats would be thrilled if the first player taken in the 2025 Draft has the same impact Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper did a decade and a half ago. But there’s a distinct difference to note about this future draft pick from those prior ones. The difference in the state of the franchise at the time of the pick.
When they drafted Strasburg on June 9, 2009, the Nationals were undoubtedly the worst team in baseball. They lost a league-worst 102 games in 2008, which is how they were awarded the No. 1 pick in the pre-lottery days. And on that night, they owned an abysmal 16-41 record, en route to a 103-loss season that would lock up the No. 1 pick again the following year.
It would be three more seasons before the Nats secured their first winning record, which also happened to come with their first division title and postseason berth. By then, the roster had been completely overhauled by still-newish general manager Mike Rizzo, who combined homegrown prospects with experienced veterans acquired via free agency and a few calculated additions via trade.
Strasburg and Harper were a huge part of that. Maybe Nationals still would have made the 2012 playoffs without either young star, but there’s no way they would’ve won 98 games. And both continued to be critical to the organization’s success over the next several years, leading to three more division titles through the 2017 season.
When the Nats make their newly acquired No. 1 pick July 13, they will do so with a roster already filled with young talent, one that has visions of competing in 2025 and 2026, long before that draft pick ever reaches the big leagues.
In a best-case scenario, the 2025 first round pick will make his MLB debut sometime in 2026. And that’s only possible if he’s drafted out of college and shows remarkable aptitude and maturity from the moment he begins his professional career. In a more likely scenario, it will be 2027 or even 2028 before he arrives. Maybe even later than that if he’s drafted out of high school.
Point is, the Nationals hope when they do make that decision to promote their next top prospect, they’re doing so to bolster an already-winning roster, not to jumpstart that process like they did with Strasburg and Harper.
It’s only natural to start thinking about potential names now, and it’s impossible not to think about Ethan Holliday, the 17-year-old infielder from Stillwater, Okla., whose brother Jackson was the No. 1 pick of the Orioles in 2022 and whose father Matt was a seven-time All-Star with the Rockies and Cardinals.
But Rizzo and his scouting team – Danny Haas, Brad Ciolek, Reed Dunn – have all been doing this long enough to know not to make any assumptions at this early stage of the game.
“What I’ve learned from those (previous No. 1) picks is: Don’t get too ultra-focused on one player in one draft season,” Rizzo told MLB Network on Tuesday evening. “Have a wide scope, and really scour the country. Especially with the draft pools being so large, and allocating money differently, you can really do some interesting things and impact your draft throughout the entirety.”
So, while Holliday may be the early frontrunner, don’t ignore Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette, California high school right-hander Seth Hernandez, UC-Santa Barbara right-hander Tyler Bremner or Florida State lefty Jamie Arnold. Or someone else who isn’t being named by any prognosticator right now. Remember, Paul Skenes was barely known seven months before ascending to the top of everyone’s draft boards after a dominant season at LSU.
No matter the name of the eventual No. 1 pick, the Nationals are going to get an impact player who at minimum will be considered on par with Dylan Crews and James Wood, perhaps even ahead of them.
Then, the organization can only hope when the time comes to call that player up to make his debut, he’s joining a team that’s already proven it can win thanks to the performances of the young studs who came before him.