Matt Kremnitzer: Can the Orioles rotation hold up?

The offseason addition of Ubaldo Jimenez was supposed to bolster a decent group of Orioles starting pitchers that included Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris and Miguel Gonzalez (along with Kevin Gausman waiting in the wings). Instead, Jimenez was terrible and was eventually demoted to the bullpen, Gausman joined the rotation full-time and every non-Jimenez starter finished the season with an ERA of 3.65 or lower.

As a group, the O's rotation finished the season a respectable fifth in the American League in ERA (3.61). But that hardly tells the whole story. In terms of Fielding Independent Pitching, a statistic in the scale of ERA that attempts to remove defense and luck from the equation and focus on a pitcher's ability to strike batters out and limit walks and home runs, O's starters are second to last. They rank 11th in strikeouts per nine innings (6.91), 11th in fewest walks (2.96) and 13th in home runs (1.03).

But Jimenez's 22 starts are included in those averages. Individually - and not including Jimenez - O's starters do not look a whole lot better. Out of 70 AL starters with at least 100 innings pitched, Norris (33rd) is the highest rated O's starter in strikeouts per nine innings (7.57). Chen is eighth in walker per nine innings (1.70), but the next closest is Norris at 38th (2.83). And Gausman is ninth in home runs per nine innings (0.56); Tillman, tied for 36th, is the next closest (0.91).

Yet O's starters were able to last nearly six innings per start and be mostly effective - especially in the second half of the season. One major reason: they excelled at stranding runners. The O's rotation finished first in the AL in strand rate (also called LOB%) at 77.6 percent. The league average starting pitcher had a strand rate of 72.1 percent. One odd thing about the O's ranking first is that high-strikeout pitchers have a tendency to strand more runners, but that is not a skill O's starters have in abundance. So perhaps chalk that up to a combination of outstanding team defense, better pitches with runners on base, shrewd coaching and randomness. Manager Buck Showalter also placed on emphasis on pitchers being quicker to the plate, which may partially account for the Orioles being one of the better teams at limiting stolen bases (only 84 stolen bases allowed, which is fourth-best in the AL). Out of all major league catchers with at least 500 innings behind the plate in 2014, Caleb Joseph (40 percent) is tied for second behind the Cardinals' Yadier Molina (48 percent) in caught stealing percentage.

In Game 1 on Thursday, Tillman will probably face off against Max Scherzer. Chen is likely to pitch Game 2, with either Gonzalez or Norris ready for Game 3. Besides Scherzer, the Tigers' playoff rotation merely consists of David Price (who pitched Sunday), Justin Verlander, and Rick Porcello, in some order. Anibal Sanchez, who missed more than a month and a half with a strained pectoral muscle, is expected to pitch out of the bullpen.

On paper, the Tigers' group of starters is clearly superior. How many fans would honestly pick even one of the O's starting pitchers over Scherzer, Price, Verlander or maybe even Porcello? Verlander may be having a down year ERA-wise, but the quality of his overall work can't be overlooked. However, Tigers starters have to pitch in front of one of the worst defensive units in the league. According to FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating data, the Tigers are 13th in the AL (minus-49.5). And according to Defensive Runs Saved data available on Baseball-Reference.com, the Tigers are also 13th (minus-64). The O's defense, meanwhile, ranks first in both metrics.

The Tigers having better starting pitchers doesn't mean they're absolutely going to walk all over the Orioles. Many types of pitchers can be dominant in October - not just power pitchers like Scherzer and Price. And as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland pointed out in August and again in a playoff myths piece last week, teams with a few elite starters at the top of their rotation aren't a lock to advance in the playoffs.

What matters most is the overall quality of a team. So if the rotation and defense can limit a Detroit lineup that scored the second-most runs in the majors, that would give a tremendous boost to an O's team that has an excellent bullpen and a not quite as good but still powerful offense.

Matt Kremnitzer blogs about the Orioles at Camden Depot. Follow him on Twitter: @mattkremnitzer. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.