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I don't care about Ashland, Oregon or Matusz's gramatical errors. At 29, Guthrie is NOT the future, but he could be an important part of getting there. I'm split on how the O's can get the most out of him. Is he worth more as a bridge to the Birds' future rotation- a mentor? Or would it be wise to simply leverage his career year in exchange for more promising youngsters (in particular, a shortstop)? Sadly, I fear the latter may be the best course of action. Statistically speaking, Guthrie is peaking now. While the time-line could skew a bit older than usual, considering Guthrie's late emergence, a body is a body and virtually everything ever written on the subject of a player's prime years has found that most are at their best between the ages of 25 and 29. THAT, Ofahn, is why we've loaded up on players under 30 (And thank God I wasn't around for any Tillman, Arrieta, AND Bergeson for Roy friggin' Halladay talk. What are you...stupid? Sure, let's deal a possible ACE, another kid with frontline potential, and a third legit starting pitcher candidate for an old, expensive guy with a history of arm trouble. GREAT idea!!! While we're at it, maybe we can see if Glenn Davis is available! It's amazing that people can continue to be so dumb and to learn so little). Guthrie may have two or three very good years left in him and I wouldn't be entirely averse to seeing those come in orange and black, but at this point, his market value is absolutely HUGE!!! At his current rate, Guthrie will have an ERA under 3.00 by season's end. He's still in his 20's. He's got good command, but his success is predicated as much on very good pure stuff as it is an ability to locate. He seems well liked and willing to lead. Perhaps most important, he's under team control through (I believe) 2012 or 13!!! And with a second year of strong pitching under his belt, no one can argue it's a fluke. Basically, we're talking about a fairly young- but experienced- No. 2 starting pitcher under long term team control at a reasonable- hell, CHEAP!- rate. That's like catnip for GMs!!! You could argue (I'm not saying it's definite, but...) that Guthrie this off-season, is worth more than Bedard was last winter. Certainly it's close on account of the contract and the fact that Guthrie has been somewhat more durable than Bedard. And if such an offer were to come; if such an offer compared to the Bedard package...? Well, you gotta listen.

Would we get such an offer? Probably not, though GMs tend to have short memories (and tenures). The O's may be victims of their own success- the Bedard deal has turned into a cautionary tale for teams... "They gave up WHAT?!!!" Still, starting pitching always seems to scare up interest. No one ever has enough and everyone needs it. As such, Andy should (quietly) shop his ace this winter or next and see what's out there. After all, we ARE talking about the future and the O's still have a number of gaping holes that must be filled before we can compete in earnest. If, as this piece suggests, Matusz IS, in fact, close to signing, starting pitching won't be one of them. Between him, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, Brad Bergeson, David Hernandez, Radhames Liz, Garrett Olson, Hayden Penn, Zach Britton, Chorye Spoone, the list of promising arms is as long as it is impressive. Furthermore, it's possible that Kranitz and Co. convert James Johnson into a starter. Troy Patton could, potentially, bounce back from his shoulder woes to earn a spot. And it's too soon to simply write off guys like Pedro Beato, Tony Butler and Tim Bascom (OK, maybe Bascom). The next, next generation offers cause for optimism as well, assuming we can sign one or two from among Keith Landers, Jarrett Martin, and Kevin Brady to go along with Bobby Bundy and Jesse Beal. And, just as no one really saw Bergeson coming, we may see a gem emerge from a third-tier group that includes Sean Gleason, Luis Noel, Chris Salberg, Rick Zagone, and Cole McCurry.

I wouldn't deal Guthrie for anything less than what he is worth...to US...but as a team still in the early stages of rebuilding (and to think otherwise would be to slip into the same old quick fix mindset that has plagued the organization for over a decade), it would be a mistake to ignore ANY opportunity- particularly one so potentially potent- to improve over the long run. 29 isn't old, but in baseball years, it's getting there. Billy Beane has demonstrated to incredible effect, the importance of- for lack of a better term- exploiting a player's prime...and then exploiting his value. The O's are in a position to become something of a big-budget version of the A's, given the right moves are made. Losing sight of the big picture simply because of sentiment or an affinity for a player could prove costly. Sometimes its the deals you DON'T make that kill you. Again, I'm not saying we SHOULD trade Guthrie- not without knowing what the potential return would be (I'd insist on a TOP pitching prospect AND a TOP young SS, AND some lesser players for depth)- only that we MUST be open to the notion and ready to pounce if the right deal comes around.

Reading the above posts, I was struck by the sense that a number of O's fans here fail to grasp the enormity of rebuilding in the AL East...and in ofahn's case, the basic concept of rebuilding. It is a process and takes time and patience. If, in doing so, you're pinning your hopes on players 30+, you'll wind up with...well, with what we've got NOW! I don't know about the rest of you, but eleven years of failure isn't, to my mind, mitigated, by a season of mediocrity. Baseball like all sports is an insular world where youth is, necessarily, served. You'd think what's going on in Tampa would resonate more!

True, Guthrie is 28 but he only has about 1.7 years of service time. (Source: Cott's Contracts) That means he is under the Team's control for at least 4 more seasons. His ERA is 3.26. The league average is 4.27. In his last 10 starts he has pitched into the 7th in 5 of them. He has 1 loss in his last 10 starts. He has 6 losses this year when he gave up 3 or fewer earned runs, so with a little support he could have 12 to 15 wins. Maybe I'm crazy, but thats a pitcher I keep.

Beerman Cold Beer said it well.

I'd wager that 75% of nation's misuse of the word "myself" is committed by professional athletes. Equally amazing is how afraid people are to use the word "me." It's the object of a sentence and the object of a preposition. Except in those rare cases when "myself" is actually appropriate, the correct word at the end of a sentence is always "me."

Trust myself on this one.

"Think about the rotation in a few years. Matusz, Tillman, Guthrie, Arrieta, Bergeson. Thats worth waiting for. And keeping."

Roch,
Not to pick on Satyr, but Guthrie is 28 and really is establishing himself as the "Ace" for the Os. He fields well, and keeps us in the game, but is he really the future for the Os? I see him as a nice gap filler, but not the future. Am I off of my rocker or does anyone else think the same thing.

Ray,

I agree that lots and lots of young pitching a good thing to have but take a minute to consider WHY it’s so important:

THE MORTALITY RATE IS HORRENDOUS

What do you base your prediction for Bergeson, Tillman, and Arrieta on? Bergesen is the only one so far that has shown an ability to pitch into the seventh inning on a consistent basis. IMO, Arrieta has more upside than Tillman but also a longer gestation period, and the soonest we will see either of those guys making an IMPACT in Baltimore is late 2010.

If we sign Texiera and start Weiters we better get serious about winning because it will be a while before we can count on a “sure thing” coming out of our farm system. There’s a lot of pitching talent there but it appears that most of the help we will get in the next season or two will be in the bullpen (David Hernandez could be a monster in the seventh or eighth). Matusz may develop into an impact player but probably not until late 2010.

Rebuilding is supposed to be about acquiring talent. Why do they ALL have to be under 30?

Looks like Matusz is going to lead the team...in grammatical errors.

It showed some class that he bothered to contact the media & try to explain his position to the fan base, good for him.
I hope this gets done & good luck to him getting to Baltimore.

Another Orioles Hangout "exclusive" that didn't hold water.

OFahn - First Halladay won't sign a three year extension with The O's.

Secondly, I do believe that Bergeson, Tillman, or Arrieta will be as good as Guthrie someday.

When you first mentioned this trade scenario more than a week ago I was the only one to challenge the ridiculousness of it. You want five years of Halliday for a potential 18 years of three young pitchers. Ain't happening. Not in AM's world.

BTW you have given MacPhail alot of credit. That's one thing we agree upon. Why not continue to let him build the Orioles return back to the playoffs. He has stated that you build a pitching staff thru the system, not by spending big money on free agents. Signing Halladay to an additionl three years(at $16 mil. plus) is just like signing a free agent, except you want us to include three young stud pitchers in the deal.

My take is he will wait til we have an obvious surplus of young, major-league ready pitching and then try to get someone who is 3-4 years away from free agency in a trade at a much lower price.

With the injuries the staff has had this year a knee jerk reaction to the bullpen makes no sense, either thru a trade or bringing up someone who may have their confidence shattered.

It has been a long 10 years and I believe Matusz will be signed and hopefully flourish through the system. He and Tilman with Guthrie is a good start and you hope two of all the pitching numbers come through, until then just fill spots with veterans and protect the kids. And of course put Sarafate back in the pen.

Roch,

As much as I would love to see a major FA pitcher (Sabathia would be my choice but Burnette has ties) what do you think the realistic chances are of signing a pitcher in the off season? AM initially stated that we wanted to fill the system with young pitching instead of over-paying through free agency but then stated concerning the Bradford trade, that he could use the money. Your guess, a major FA pitcher signed this winter, a mid-level stop gap, or go Christams shopping with the wife during the winter meetings?

Either Brian M. has a heck of an agent helping him out or he's one hell of a smart guy...or both. Sending out a message for the fans is both a smart business strategy and a great way to endear yourself to a fan base before you've thrown a single pitch in your professional career. If he pitches as smart as he conducts the business side of things we should be in for a real treat!

Hopefully both sides get it done soon and we don't have to go through another 15th like we did last year. That was TOO much stress.

Does trying to sound smart just makes a jock sound dumb?

When did I and me become dirty words?

"Both the Orioles and I..."
"Coach gave it to me...."

Forget steroids and hGh, lets get the abuse of the word myself of prefessional sports.

Hey Roch...off the subject here but what are the O's doing with the 9/7 game against Oakland? Ravens are home that day, too. Same parking lot, same fans. Schedule has said "TBA" all year and O's haven't said anything yet. Can't believe NFL schedule makers can't look at baseball schedule when creating theirs.
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Very good question. Will look into it. - Roch

So you have your own "Deep Throat" within the Organization? Way to go KGB trainee.

So when Matusz signs I wonder how many people will want to trade him immediately? (I know you can't, but these trade scenario's drive me batty)

Think about the rotation in a few years. Matusz, Tillman, Guthrie, Arrieta, Bergeson. Thats worth waiting for. And keeping.

Roch

When will we hear about the PTBNL in the Bradford deal? Do you think this player could have any upside or was it mostly a salary dump? McPhail's comments about 'needing some dough' make me feel like it's more a dump.
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We'll find out after the season. Will be a low-level minor leaguer. And I'd say salary dump is an accurate description. - Roch

That was agent-speak.
Do you really think he writes like that?
I kinda hope he does.
Note the lack of internet-style.
I suggest a full-scale investigation on your part. It'll take your mind off of the current starting pitching...and the relievers.

Don't you think it's time somebody did a piece on Ashland, Oregon, home of JGuthrie? It's a quaint lil ole town in Southern Oregon that hosts a huge Shakespeare Festival every summer.
Oh, and ask him if he ever did any hanging in Medford, which is up the road and on the wrong side of the tracks. Matter of fact there is no RIGHT side of the tracks in Medford.

P.S. I know they're just getting their faces wet, but doesn't it seem like the Olympic swimmers are tasting the water before they race?