Looking at last night
No need to second-guess Orioles manager Dave Trembley any longer - if you had already started, as I did late last night.
Once Jeremy Guthrie informed Trembley that his back was stiffening up, the manager had no choice but to remove him after seven innings.
Trembley must be living right. Jamie Walker and Rocky Cherry preserved a one-run lead in the eighth, and the Orioles broke open the game in the ninth.
It would have been a heartbreaking loss if the bullpen hadn't held up. It also would have been typical of Guthrie's luck, though he never complains or gets flustered when another superb outing goes to waste.
Are we ready to label Guthrie as a bonafide No. 1 starter, and not just a guy who's really good, easily the best on this staff, and deserves to get the ball on Opening Day every season?
The majors aren't exactly littered with true No. 1s. Feel free to toss out any names. Off the top of my head, I'll nominate CC Sabathia, Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana and Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee has emerged as one.
Is it too soon to put Guthrie in the same company? He doesn't bring the same credentials, but you can see him getting there. He has all the tools, all the intangibles.
It's never too soon to wonder what the heck the Indians were thinking when they put him on waivers. They believed other pitching prospects had passed him by. They were wrong.
Or would you rather have Jeremy Sowers?
It sure doesn't hurt that Guthrie fields his position. He won't give away games.
At Double-A Bowie, David Hernandez picked up his eighth win, allowing two runs and five hits, with eight strikeouts, in five-plus innings. Matt Wieters went 2-for-3 with two walks, an RBI and two runs scored. Nolan Reimold had a two-run single, walked twice and scored two runs.
Hopefully, I'll have an update on first-round pick Brian Matusz later today. I kept hearing the sides were close. Perhaps they're even closer than we realized.
Guthrie can be an ace in this league, but I'd welcome C.C. Sabbathia to this team with open arms.
I agree with others, Roch. You left John Lackey off the list, and he might be the best pitcher in the American League. Seriously.
Jeremy Guthrie truly is a great pitcher, and he deserves the rank of ACE. I think the Orioles should sign Guthrie for 3 more years, don't you think, Roch? Anyways, Mickolio should defientaly be called up due to his outstanding ERA of 0.55, and Bergensen too should be called up. I think Bergensen should take Sarfate's place as the Orioles Starter, and Mickolio be in the bullphen with Cintron released. I don't think Red-Hot Wieters should be called up yet unless he does so well to deserve to be in the Majors this September, and Mr.Trembley puts Wieters on the Roster. But, I don't think the Orioles should rush Wieters. We don't want another Hayden Penn that went up to the Majors in 2005, or 2006, and got beaten up bad.
Interesting, Jeff V. Well, thanks for the information. I guess I'll just wait and see Wieters in uniform next year at Spring Training.
As for Matusz, I'm eagerly waiting to see if the ink dries tonight.
Ben W. Service time is why the Reds waited to call up Bruce. He was the #1 or 2 rated prospect coming into this year. The Reds waited so he wouldn't get super 2 status.
Service time is more important for Wieters then it would be in most other instances because he is a Boras client. Odds are much lower that the O's will be able to ink Wieters to an extenstion before he hits free agency. I do think it would be very interesting if the O's tossed a Longoria type deal out there. Would Boras give up a couple years of free agency for substationaly more money the first six years?
Roch, more and more Guthrie is showing himself to be the team's MVP. He’s the sole stable well-performing pitcher in the rotation, and he was the stopper last night, ending a mini losing streak. As much as I and others have disapproved of many of the O’s decisions over the years, acquiring him was one of the best moves from the recent pre-MacPhail era.
And your comment about how it’s difficult to come up with a top 3 on a last place team is correct. There are multiple players on this team that are playing at or above expectations. Guthrie, Roberts, Markakis, Huff, Mora, J. Johnson. Sherrill did better than expected in the first half, Albers pitched well before he got hurt, and Adam Jones was getting better as the season progressed before his injury. Some of these players we could expect to play well and keep getting better, while others most likely won’t touch what they’ve done this season next year (or perhaps again).
Overall, I think the club, at 57-62, has maxed out with overachieving. This isn’t a bad thing—they’ve performed great so far considering what they have to work with. Much like 1989, with many players playing at or beyond what would be expected of them in the best scenarios, the club has done much better than anyone thought they could. They’re on pace to win 77 games, which might not comfort many and is hardly a "Why Not?" year, but that’s much better than the dire forecasts (like my own 66 wins) from before the season.
We should all be thanking our lucky stars we don't have to deal with Aaron Crow and his agent. That guy really seems to be a piece of work.
Eric - You have been assigned to IN-School Suspension at the School of Roch for the next week and after school detention on Tuesday and Thursday for the remainder of the month for suggesting that the Orioles trade Jeremy Guthrie.
If those numbers on Posey ($7.5 mil bonus) are accurate, it certainly affects Matusz. Posey was the fifth pick right? Aaron Crow signed yesterday with the Fort Worth Cats in the Independant League. This excludes him from going back to Missouri for his senior year, but not from signing with the Nationals. His agent Randy Hendricks was quoted as saying that Jim Bowden doesn't see any need for anymore discussion because the two sides are so far apart. We think we have it bad as O's fans, take a look at what goes on with the Nationals.
Yonder Alonso(Reds) has also threatened to sign with an Independant League team. Appartently, he and A-Rod are good friends and A-Rod has agreed to let him be his roomate for a year. Is this okay with Madonna?
This kind of crap and these personalities certainly suggests that it's a whole lot more than an exact science. Baseball needs to do something to change the process.
Jeff V said:
Ben W. Do you honestly want the O's to lose a year of control just so Wieters can get a few at bats this year? Are you actually a Yankee fan or something? I don't care what he does in Bowie this year there is no way he is getting called up to the big leagues before rosters expand, it would be incrediably short sighted.
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I've heard many people talk about service time and all that. I realize that, but I'm fed up with Ramon, and I would like a change of scenery, at least. If there was no rule about service time, I'm sure people would be clamoring for Wieters to be called up in September, to get him acclimated to the Majors. I don't know if teams did this, but didn't the Reds bring up Jay Bruce in May? This is during the season.
FYI, I am no Yankee fan. Black and orange through and through. If Brian Matusz gets signed, I'm breaking out the champagne, and celebrating the rebuilding plan.
Roch, do you know if Tillman is pitching tonight for Bowie? I'm trying to decide whether I will drive down to Trenton for the game.
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Yes, Tillman is scheduled to start. Enjoy the game! Feel free to give us a scouting report later. - Roch
I really like Guthrie, but I don't think he can consistently be "the ace" in the same group as the ones you mentioned. He doesn't have the power stuff to get strikeouts or the Greg Maddux control. However, he's an excellent pitcher who we can feel comfortable with as a second tier opening day starter (one of the 20 or so best pitchers in the league).
Nachoman:
the O's have signed their 2nd-9th round picks.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2008xteam.php?team=1002
Hoes and Avery are doing pretty well in the Gulf Coast league while Hudson, Zagone and Joseph are at Aberdeen. Miclat just signed a week or two ago so he is still getting ready to play in the Gulf Coast League.
Jeff:
While I agree with your assessment of the starting pitching in our division and that it will be hard for the O's to compete, I would still be happy to match Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman & Arrieta against any of those other pitchers in 3 years.
Nacho Man, the O's have signed picks #2-#9 thier 10th round pick, Chris Herrmann, is expected to go to Miami.
Ben W. Do you honestly want the O's to lose a year of control just so Wieters can get a few at bats this year? Are you actually a Yankee fan or something? I don't care what he does in Bowie this year there is no way he is getting called up to the big leagues before rosters expand, it would be incrediably short sighted.
In an ideal world Guthrie is a #2, IIRC he struggled early in the year when he was going up against the #1 guys for other teams.
Let's hope Matusz is signing.....
Hernandez getting dealt would be a good thing. A marginal prospect would suffice. He just doesn't seem to want to be here or want to give 100% all the time. I know catching is draining & a grind , but he takes it to extremes.
TRADE Mora now too, if anyone will give up a decent prospect for him. I don't like just giving guys away for some player that will never get past AA. His value is as high as it will get right now with his hot streak. An example, the Suxs just lost their 3B didn't they?
Yes, Guthrie has earned the right to start next year, opening day, unless the O's sign or trade for a Peavy, BUT I really doubt that happens...
I hope they keep Huff. He is signed for next year, can DH & be depth at 3B & 1B.
Deal Walker if possible, he is throwing 10 MPH slower this year than last. He has either hit the wall quickly or is hurt.
Deal Payton now too , if they can, his value is as high as it will get right now like Mora's...
Deal Millar now too if they can. In his case & Payton's, try to get a decent prospect & not just AA fodder. I don't mean a Bruce or Price type, but not a Crash Davis type either....
Keep Castro at SS for the rest of this year, give him bunting practice, don't expect much from the plate , but he sure is sweet at SS.
Maybe they can package a few of the above to someone really needing help in those areas & get someone who may get to the majors next year or in 2010....
Buster Posey got a 5-year major league deal with a 7.5 mil signing bonus. I wonder if this will affect Matusz at all.
Roch
Reports are out that Matusz is heading to Baltimore for a physical. I'm sure you're all over it and i'm excited things are coming together. Do you think he will start at Frederick next year? Some say as high as Bowie, what do you think?
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My guess is Frederick, but that's just a guess. - Roch
He clearly is a #1. What has he allowed like 3 runs or less in 80% of his starts as an O? He holds runners, fields his position and gives you 180-200 innings. I still say trade him since he's 29 and will be 32 by the time we contend.
Guthrie has been great, no question... but there's still a long list of pitchers I would put in front of him in addition to the men you listed... some haven't had the strongest season this year, but their track record is more established...
Scott Kazmir
Josh Becket
Jon Lester (only because he has the same sort of stats, but is 5 years younger)
Chien-Ming Wang
Mark Buehrle
Justin Verlander
John Lackey (your most glaring omission... he gets no love!!)
Felix Hernandez
Cole Hamels
Ben Sheets
Yovani Gallardo (I know he's hurt now, but he's going to win many games)
Roy Oswalt (struggle this year, but still is only 30)
Edinson Volquez
Danny Haren
Tim Lincecum
These are all possible #1 or #2 starters... and I think Guthrie is worthy of this list if he finishes out the season strong. The Orioles would be in great shape if they could have him and another pitcher of this caliber on the staff for several years. I think that's the problem with the O's pitching prospects right now... I don't see many with this kind of upside... the two names that come to mind are Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz if he's signed. Keep in mind how good the top of the rotation will be for other teams in the division for the next several years to come...
BOS - Becket, Lester, Matsuzaka
NYY - Wang, Chamberlain
TBR - Kazmir, Price, Shields
TOR - Halladay, Marcum
Pretty tough... the O's will struggle to match up. Such a difficult division. If the current squad was in the NL they would be competing for a division title. But in the AL east they are the fifth best team. Crazy. Good luck Mr. MacPhail & Mr. Trembley!
No reason to anoint him yet -- how bad is his sore back? If he can pitch 7 dominant innings every time is he a bona fide #1 or does a true ace go 8-9 on a more regular basis?
The O's also let John Maine get away, and refused to let Hayden Penn get away. This clearly isn't an exact science.
Beckett, Wang, Lackey, Lincecum, not Guthrie, not today
In the School of Roch, will you be handing out assigned roles and responsibilities for tomorrow nights inevitable hand wringing re Brian Matusz? I for one quit drinking many years ago so I will be unable to fulfill the role of the poster who cracks at 7:30 pm and hits the hard liquor while sending incoherent and blustering comments to this page.
You must also have a designated resident Angelos hater.
I will take the role of optimist if it hasn't been claimed. I suggest they get it done at 9:30 Eastern , August 15th.All is calm.
Roch - Any way of finding out how many pitches Hernandez threw last night? He only went five innings and that has been a concern among some here.
As for Guthrie, keep in mind he was almost 28 when the Indians let him go. there are people on this site who believe strongly that 30 year old proven vets are too old. He's not yet in the company of those you listed, but you are correct to say he has all of the ingredients.
His disputed strikeout of Pherelta (sp) last night was some pitch. It had great movement. Not only could the Indians ss not hit it, but ramon couldn't catch it either. How in God's name was that a wild pitch. It hit his glove. Some of these official scorers so soft it's ridiculous. Anyone see the speed of that pitch?
It would be interesting to hear an opposing scout's take on Ramon. What a headache for the O's. I would imagine they will just have to eat his salary next year. I can't see him being happy, in a contract year, being Weiters back up and part time DH. Although catching Weiters only 4-5 games a week, much like they have done with him in the minors this year, may not be a bad way to break him in. Problem with that is it would be like watching Castro and Cintron at shortstop.
Glad to hear Dave actually wasn't willing to make the same mistake twice, but rather pulled Guthrie because his back tightened up. I thought it was just Dave sticking to a formula.
It would help for DCab to step up tonight and go deep into the game. It might be a long weekend in Detroit with Waters, Sarfate (hopefully someone else will take his slot) and Olson taking the hill against their hitting. We could use a completely fresh pen.
The reason why I think Guthrie is the real deal... he consistently pitches well against teams who have seen him before. He also gets to the late innings after a team has already seen him ~3 times and still shuts them down.
What does Wieters have to do to get a call-up? Bat .400 like Chipper Jones? What about Mickolio who has an ERA of 0.55? What about Bergesen who is 15-3, with an even ERA of 3.00?
Whoo-hoo, let's hope that he passes his physical and can sign the contract, and see if he'll be announced at the next home game! Brian Matusz, our newest Oriole!
Roch,
For those asking about Jake Arieta, Davey Johnson was live on XM this morning and Buck Martinez asked if Jake Arieta was pitching the 4th game on Sat. and Davey said no. He didn't say when he was pitching. They are 1-1 and play Cuba tonight US time at he thought 11:30.
I know it's out there but........
Can we just have Guthrie pitch every game? He's so good its disgusting! If we gave him run support earlier this season, he would be a 20+ game winner right now! A big thank you to the O's for tacking on some extra runs. It was Guthrie and my shiny new key that won last night's game. Yes I said it. A key! My father took one of my keys the other day and got a copy made on one of those Orioles Keys. Best present ever! Now if only he could set me up with Luke Scott I would really be happy. : ) Hey a girl can dream.
Any updates on the other draft picks that haven't signed? I think we have only signed like 3 or 4 of our first 10 picks.
It's nice to see Guthrie has such a positive attitude. Professional atheletes need to have a short term memory and Guthrie at this point is a master at that. Hell I get upset if my team blows a lead in co-ed softball...then again I'm not making the big bucks. I have no doubt that Matusz will sign by the deadline as there is no way he wants to leave money on the table and go back to school. I'm also pretty encouraged the our hitters in the farm system, weiters is a monster, oscar is solid and synder has been on a tear. It' nice to see some of these guys staying hot and getting recognized.
Guthrie is a very good pitcher, but didn't we once label a guy named Eric Bedard as a bona fide number 1? Not so soon grasshopper.
Roch,
Guthrie is definitely approaching the rarified air of the true "ACE". It would be great to get another top line pitcher, either internally or externally (there is a bad joke waiting to happen), and be in the same situation as the Brewers this year having both Sabathia and Sheets(2 true #1 pitchers). I would argue that Lee would need to put another solid season togehter behind this one to get that title as he has been up and down in his career. I lived in Cleveland for 5 years (yes by choice), and during that 5 years I got to see Guthrie every time he pitched out there. I was as SHOCKED as anyone when I moved back to Bmore and saw the O's got him for basically nothing. Guthrie is special and to think at one point this year he was 2-6.....The comparisons have been made in the past, and I agree that he reminds me a lot of Mussina in his days here as a true #1.
As far as bonafide #1 starters your list is good but I would also add Kazmir, Lackey and Hamels...
Anybody who leads the league in quality starts gets my vote for bonafide ace. Guthrie does what you expect of an ace. Keeps you in every game, saves the bullpen, fields his position and ends losing streaks. Any more silly questions Roch?