Are O's prepared to spend big in free agency?
Soon the focus of the baseball world will shift from on the field to off the field and free agency and the hot stove season will heat up.
No one can really predict how active the Orioles will be but O's President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail recently indicated to me the Orioles would not shy away from offering some big money.
Here are Andy MacPhail's answers to some questions about free agency.
Steve Melewski: Would it be fair to say a big dollar contract is not out of the realm of possibility for the O's if you deem the situation right?
Andy MacPhail: That would be correct. In the immediate future or more moderate future, either one. We certainly haven't taken ourselves out of that market. Last year we made significant investments to do things I think were absolutely fundamental to the success of the franchise going forward. Whether it's our new video system or the new facility in the Dominican Republic or the new computer system we put in, all those things have demonstrated benefits to the organization. One of the reasons our offense achieved more than most people (including myself) were forecasting, was the virtue of the tools [such as the new video system] available to our hitters.
Steve: So the Orioles as we speak are not ruling themselves out on any player right now?
MacPhail: Correct.
Steve: How does 11 straight losing seasons handicap you when you go after players?
MacPhail: Whatever the player and the investment, they have to fit into the strategy of what it is we are trying to achieve as an organization. The likelihood of us signing someone who is 35 is not great. If they are younger and can be helpful to us and their career will be longer with us than just a short-term fix, that's a whole different story. That has more appeal than someone plugging a hole for a year or two, I don't have any interest in doing that. You make big investments to add to the foundation of your franchise.
MacPhail also said owner Peter Angelos is not reluctant to spend money for free agents.
"Peter has been pretty aggressive I think in the past in free agency. And he's been pretty aggressive about the investments he made in 2008. I just asked him to put them in the infrastructure of the franchise as opposed to free agents," MacPhail said.
"I think we have to look on a selective basis what might make sense for you, where you might have unique opportunities available to you in free agency. I've never gotten the sense from Peter that he was reluctant to delve in. It's our job to make sure when we make those investments that they are as efficient as can be."
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Hopefully that means two good young pitchers, like CC Sabathia and whomever else. I wish it would CC, but either way I hope that includes two pitchers and Texeria if possible. I would not be mad about that.
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Big:
I don't know about signing two pitchers AND Tex. That would be asking a lot. But somewhere between trades and free agency, they need to add starting pitching, everyone in baseball knows that after last season.
I was looking at a list of free agents, there are plenty of pitchers out there that we can get. Is there a chance that they will really bring in two or three?
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Not only is there a chance, I think they have to bring in two or three. Since pitchers don't grow on trees and the O's seem reluctant to rush last year's Bowie staff, they'll likely need to add some arms somewhere. It could still happen in a trade, but free agency is surely an option for pitching as well. Steve
Don't put too much weight in these comments. Al posturing and could be smoke screens. February will tell you what the direction the O's are going in.
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Ed:
You are right, it's about actions, not words. Still I was a little suprised Andy was so open about things.
Steve
a pitcher like c c wouldn't and shouldn't consider the orioles. a losing team with a short porch in right and a ridiculous short power alley in left is not in any pitcher's best interest.
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fkterp:
If CC doesn't consider the Orioles as many would expect, it should not have anything to do with the Stadium dimensions. The Yard is no longer considered a bandbox and good pitching can suceed here.
In 27 2/3 career innings at Camden Yards, Sabathia has allowed 0 homers. Yes, i know he was pitching vs, the Orioles, who else would he be playing at the Yard. In 23 innings at Fenway he gave up 4 homers and allowed 6 in 23 innings at Yankee Stadium.
Steve
I'm must disagree with Ed So Pa Fan (I'm a JOE Pa fan myself!--LOL). I don't think this is posturing at all on Andy MacPhail's part. The reason is quite simple: From a business standpoint, 2008 was a dismal year for the Orioles, with the lowest attendance ever at OPACY and disappointing revenues from MASN, as well. For all the talk by a few O's fans about how it doesn't matter whether the team continues losing a few more years, I assure you that isn't the view over at the Warehouse. Sure rebuilding the farm is important for the future success of the franchise, but the big club needs to get players this offseason that give it a realistic chance of a winning season in 2009. Peter Angelos realizes that he needs to put an attractive and competitive team on the field NOW if he's going to rebuild the fan base and unless MacPhail is able to pull the trigger on a significant trade, then free agency is the only route for an immediate shot in the arm. I fully expect the O's to surprise a lot of folks, much as they did when they got Miguel Tejada in 2004. At that time, you'll recall, conventional wisdom said there was no way a MVP would sign with Baltimore. This time around, however, there is a better core of young players, so coming to the Orioles may not be as bad a destination as many seem to think.
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Ken:
Good points. The Orioles have seldom, probably never been able to say they had the best pitcher in the Carolina and Eastern Leagues and best player overall in the Minors. It appears that legit talent is on the way. Winning in 2010 may be more realistic but the O's must hope prospective free agents can look ahead a little and see the same future they do.
Steve
I could see the Orioles going after the local boys ( Tex and Burnett) and trying to sign a lesser starting pitcher like Paul Byrd. That would make your starting pitching staff Guthrie, Burnett, Byrd, Cabrera(if he does not get non tenured) and a young guy as the 5. That might be enough with a solid offense and a healthy bullpen to get us over the .500 mark
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Brian:
I too could see them having to sign a Byrd or someone like him. Maybe they go with two young guys in the rotation from among Bass, Olson, Liz, Albers, Johnson, Cormier and Simon. Personally I'm not expecting the O's to offer Cabrera arbitration (just my guess) and don't expect him back next year.
Steve
Need a hitter? Toronto has a kid named Loewen who might just be real good someday. Think he'd sign with the Orioles?
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Doug:
Despite the fact they gave him a Major-League contract, allowed him to accrue service time this year even when not pitching, let him work one on one with Crowley for a week and taught him more at instructional league, no he won't sign with the Orioles. I like Adam and wish him well, but also can understand fans that feel he could have showed a little more loyalty.
Steve
Brian -- Paul Byrd? Did you read what Steve posted? This quote from Andy MacPhail: "The likelihood of us signing someone who is 35 is not great." Byrd turns 38 in two months, so getting him is getting essentially a rental player. He's going to want at least $7M, which likely could be better spent elsewhere.
This isn't meant to be a total knock on him, because Byrd is a decent (not great) pitcher and even a decent pitcher looks pretty good right now in the Orioles' rotation. He has above average control (34 W in 180 IP in '08), which could be a reason to sign him in the hopes he might rub off on the rest of the staff.
Byrd is very hittable when he's not on his game, though, because he's a soft tosser (only 82 K, 4.60 ERA). If the team wants short term stability in the rotation, they may go with him, but for half the money MacPhail could take a chance on a pitcher like Mark Prior, who's getting over an injury, but is ten years younger than Byrd and, should he be able to bounce back, has much better stuff and a higher upside.
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Ken:
I generally agree with you, but I would not rule out a Byrd or someone like him, even at his older age. What are those song lyrics, "you can't always get what you want, but you get what you need." The O's need starters and if they can't get the ones they want, they must get some they need. For the most part the O's can't go after the 35 year olds, but in the case of starting pitching they may eventually be forced to sign a stop-gap or two so as to not rush Tillman, Arrieta, Hernandez, etc.
Steve
Guys - MacFail loves words. He will try to use as many words as possible in an attempt to come off as smarter than everyone else. From listening to him bump his gums for 10 years in Chicago, I got used to MacFail-speak. The only thing more frustrating than MacFail's words though are his actions. The Cubs were god awful when he was in charge, yet they seem to be doing better since he left. The same can be said for the Twins after he left (they got better). MacFail is not a "baseball man" - he is nothing but an accountant whose dad and grand dad were great baseball men. (and Andy is tight with Bud) The Orioles will not be getting any big free agents this season (or any season Andy is in charge)
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Cub fan:
You are entitled to your thoughts, of course, but MacPhail is playing to solid reviews here. Since he took over the O's have drafted Matt Wieters named best player in the Minors by Baseball America, they've opened an academy in the Dominican, which they never had. Made a major upgrade in their video system that players use and made two trades that so far have turned out very well.
If the Cubs and Twins got better after he left, bet they did so with some of his acquisitions. Sorry you are so down on Andy, but here we like what we see so far and anxiously await the future.
P.S. You're not just bummed that the O's took 2 of 3 at Wrigley, are you.
Steve
While the Orioles sure have some exciting prospects who served at the AA level in Bowie, based on 2008's performance, the team has only one major league starter, Jeremey Guthrie. The perfect scenario would be to obtain two free agent starters, one absolute top level starter and then another guy who might be available for a two to three year contract who would give the O's three of their five starters. The farm prospects then could compete for the 4th and 5th spot and work their way up as their performance becomes proven.
The Orioles need a proven RBI guy. Kevin Millar is a great fellow to fill in the old Terry Crowley/Harold Baines kind of roll with the team, sort of the 10th man on offense. It would be great to get Texiara, but he'll probably be looking for five years at $20,000.
That leaves an openning at shortstop. With the right fellows elsewhere, the need for a hot hitter reduces, but with young starters and to assure better pitching performance, the team needs to be strong "up the middle" leaving Hernandez behind the plate as the liability depending on how soon Matt Wietters is ready.
These moves could make the Orioles a contender next year, but they have to make all of them. Even if they're willing, it's a matter of who will want to play here.
Beyond that, looking ahead to 2010, what's going to happen with Brian Roberts, who if the team is going to contend sooner than later is a must keep; otherwise, send him packing now. How much more tread does Melvin Mora have left on his tires? He's one of those guys who doesn't attract much attention but sure does a good job. If he's useful for the parent club now, he could be a huge part of the minor league leadership team in the future given his planting roots in Harford County and his stellar reputation for working with others.
Orioles fans cannot get too excited about how Tampa Bay turned the corner for 2008. Sure, with the right moves, it could happen, but it's not for sure.
Andy McPhail turned a low budget team in Minnesota into World Champs in Minnesota in 1987 and helped build the foundation of today's Cubs. He's one of the better fellows to have in that job.
If Peter Angelos empowers Andy to do what he needs to do, the future finally looks bright. It rubs salt in Orioles fans' wounds seeing Philadelphia on the brink of a World Championship with Pat Gillick as GM. The O's haven't had a winning season since he and Davey Johnson left town.
Syd Thrift was a guy who time had passed by incapable of dealing with today's baseball world. Mike Flanagan is one of the best guys ever to wear black and orange, but was he GM material? Hard to say, but his leadership shared with Beattie and the next fellow only achieved small results.
I hope Mike can serve a useful roll with the team, but we're so lucky to have Andy calling the shots now.
This is the off season that counts. They finally have something to build on.
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Rob:
A lot of good points. Thanks for taking time to write out your thoughts. This off-season should be exciting. Steve
we should consider Jon Garland...we can't beat him so we should sign him...lol..seriously, young guy, lots of talent, could be around for a while...Felipe Lopez is another good idea...we could use that type of middle-infielder...no Tex ?, trade for Prince Fielder..maybe a big, fat trade of Hardy/Weeks/Fielder for Roberts/Mora/Sherrill...we get younger with potential, they get skill and pitching they need...and we save a few bucks...AJ would be great to work with our young pitching and Weiters, whom i believed has earned himself a spot on the roster...he is our Felix Hernandez/Joe Mauer/Evan Longoria type of guy...
just throwing around some ideas...
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Mykal:
Garland may be someone to look at. He's 29 and certainly durable with seven straight seasons of 190 plus innings. He would certainly be an upgrade over what the O's could offer last year.
As for that trade, don't count on it. It's very one sided in favor of the O's. Milwaukee would never give up all that for only those three players. No one is trading for Mevlin, who will be 37 next year, even after his good 2007 season. The Brewers would probably need to get a slew of the O's top young prospects for a return like that.
Steve
Steve,
I just wanted to let you know that I've really enjoyed your work in the Baltimore area for the past few years.
I much prefer your show than the current one on the rival sports radio station in town. I use to listen to your show regulary, especially following the O's games when no one would call in.
Thanks for answering the questions in your blog that us fans want to know.
Keep up the great job
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Joe:
Thanks. I had a lot of fun from 2000-2003 doring that Orioles talk show. As a kid from Baltimore who grew up going to Memorial Stadium 50 times a year, getting to cover my hometown team is a real thrill. Masnsports.com has become a real destination for O's fans and things are only going to get better in the future. Thanks for checking in.
Steve
Winning, while more realistic in 2010, shouldn't be considered completely out of the question in '09. Considering the offense the Orioles had this past season, with even just a halfway decent pitching staff, instead of one that keep breaking down in myriad way, they could have finished the year much closer to .500 than they did. Next season the offense should be just fine, and could be even better if they land an impact bat like Tex. How they finish is going to depend most on improvement from the pitching staff, whioh amounts to grab bag of "what ifs", from offseason acquistions to the few pluses proving that '08 wasn't a fluke (Guthrie, Johnson and Sherrill--Bradford would be included in the short list of dependable, had MacPhail not made a highly questionable move of trading him to the Rays; I hope the $4M is used wisely) to guys trying to come back from injuries to youngsters trying to prove they're ready to the next step to D-Cab (if he's still here) turning the corner and finally harnessing his huge potential. Granted, that's a lot of "what ifs", but should the staff soomehow come together, fans can count on the O's being at least a competitive team, if not yet a contending one, in 2009.