The arms race
The Giants have signed Randy Johnson to a one-year deal for a guaranteed $8 million. He could earn another $5 million in performance and award bonuses.
Johnson is five wins shy of 300 for his career. He joins a rotation that also includes Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain.
The Giants are the first team with three Cy Young winners on their staff since the 2002 Atlanta Braves.
Meanwhile, the Orioles are still trying to find a couple of veterans who can join Jeremy Guthrie in a game of "Hold Down the Fort." Anyone who can provide some innings and stability to a rotation that's waiting for Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz to join it.
David Hernandez also is looming. He's a big strikeout guy who quietly posted a 2.68 ERA for Double-A Bowie this season. He needs to cut down on the walks, but it isn't a reach to project him as a major league starter next year.
Just look at who took the ball for manager Dave Trembley in 2008.
The talk of Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami being a fourth or fifth starter rings hollow in Baltimore. Who would you put ahead of him here?
If he's the only pitcher to sign - and that's unlikely, since the Orioles are more inclined to add two starters - does he figure to be slotted behind Guthrie, Garrett Olson and Matt Albers? Does Radhames Liz bump him down? Are we assuming Troy Patton and Hayden Penn rate higher than him?
On this staff, he could be a No. 2, which is a frightening thought.
Actually, most of this staff looks like No. 2 right now. Yeah, you know what I mean.
Just close your eyes and imagine that big wave of young arms that I mentioned earlier crashing onto the scene. It's a nice survival tactic.
It won't be long before we're talking about the next edition of the Baby Birds. We'll be wondering how the Orioles are going to make room for Brandon Erbe, Chorye Spoone and Tim Bascom. And we'll look back at this winter and laugh.
Right?
Please tell me I'm right.
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Categories (click for archive)Roch Kubatko | Roch Kubatko Orioles |
Sounds as if you took a cold shower in orange kool aid this morning. And PLEASE, PLEASE, don't ever use the words STOP GAP when referring to any Oriole additions. You've built up a good Rep in this area.... Don't lower your standards.
Roch are you concerned that if we are wanting to be competitive when they arrive, ie. 2010ish, that we should be breaking in at least one now. How long will we have to wait for three rookie starters to cut their collective teeth at the same time, they need to be stair stepped in. I'd like to see the best one up here this year and begin cutting his teeth. If not I think you'll have to trade one of them for a proven major league starter so we aren't going 3/5ths of a rotation brand new next year or the year after next.
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My guess is you'll see Tillman first, since he'll start out at Triple-A Norfolk. Arrieta might begin the year at Double-A Bowie, with Matusz in Single-A Frederick. - Roch
Roch- okay you are right! feel better. we are in our version of Survivor Island. Add a Captain and Gilligan and a Boss and we can scream Here come the plane Boss.
the Orioles comeback is like the stock market, everybody says it will come back. the question is when will they be coming back to third place? A miracle has to happen for them to actually look at the play-offs and believe they can beat the deep pocketed Yankees and Bosox. BAseball might just be ruined, until they create parity like the NFL with a cap that is tight. Kansas city, Pittsburg, Minnesota, and Baltimore.
Roch- I personally feel that the Kawakami signing is the most important. First of all, it breaks the O's into a whole new market for talent. (Yu Darvish anyone?)
Second of all, I read that the guy is always around the plate, he does not walk anyone. That will help keep pitch counts down and save the bullpen from being taxed, which tends to happen when you have a young rotation.
3rd, just because you are rebuilding, does not mean you do not want to win as many games as possible. It will be exciting to see him.
4th, he is a veteran of big games in Japan, a team leader. In 2 or 3 years, he could be the back of the rotation guy that gives us some experience for a possible playoff run.
I truly feel that the O's offense is and never was the problem. The rotation was. It got crushed, taxing the bullpen, leading to Sept 1 thru the end of the season records like me verse Jordan in 1 on 1. 4-38.
Do you know how sometimes, pitcher with higher ERAs in the minors, are better in the pros then the lower ERA pitchers? The reason is ofcourse because the minor league hitter is more aggresive while the MLB is patient.
Liz and Olson are great in the minors because the Hitters chase everything and strike out. In the MLB, the hitters take the pitches, get ahead in the count, then they HAVE to give in and through it over the plate and that is how you get crushed. The pitchers don't trust their stuff. I think that Kawakami could have this kind of effect on the MLB guys. He has good control and is never center of the plate. I think he will be better than many think in the USA.
Get it done Andy.
What do you think Roch?
Roch,
I cant tell you that you are right. Out of Tillman, Matuz, Bergenson, Penn, Erbe, Spoon, Hernandez, Liz, Olson, Albers, and Patton....
You probably have at best 3 legit prospects. Lets take them one by one.
Tillman - Quality arm and showed great poise when I watched him at Bowie this year. Needs to cut down on the amount of pitches he throws each inning or he will fit in perfect here as one of our 3 1/3 inning startes. I would project him as a #2-3 starter
Matuz - Nice control of 3-4 pitches. Lacks the power I would expect from a first round pitcher....#2 starter
Patton - Probably best suited as a long reliever. How will he hold up?
Albers - Same as Patton
Bergeson - I liked what I saw in this kid at bowie. Probably a #4 mlb starter
Hernadez - A true sleeper. Look for him to force the issue over the next two years....#3 starter
Penn, Olson and Liz - A lot of kids can throw hard, but that doesnt matter in the big leagues. Can you control your stuff. Liz is a wild man, Olson is a basket case and Penn is good for a couple starts before he stumps his toe....AT BEST relief pitchers. Maybe someone can harness Liz to make him closer.
NOW DO YOU SEE....we dont have a NUMBER 1 starter in the making. Which one is the next Linceum, Sabithia, Price....none of the above!
So NO the pitcher doesnt look as rosey as you painted.
Baron,
I have been around the game for a long time. I have seen many O's teams and prospects. Unfortunately the problem isnt MacFail ( he is only another puppet with strings) The common denominator thru all of these declining years is ANGELOS. And no matter who they bring up and develop, they will simply sign elsewhere when eligible. The owner needs to move on!
There comes a time when you keep scratching a cut and it becomes a scar. The Angelos's have created too many scars in the fans here in Baltimore. They have wore out there welcome as owners.
My guess...we lose Roberts to FA and Markakis WILL NOT sign and extension before spring.
Your right about the staff looking like s*%& , that's for sure. Actually your remarks are sounding more realistic than ever , you are our only salvation during this rebuilding experience. One question please Roch , why can't we be a little competitive and rebuild at the same time ?
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That's the idea, but a lack of depth once again made August and September a disaster when injuries struck. - Roch
Keep thinking back to the Detroit Tigers earlier this decade, before their young pitchers figured things out. They had some very ugly seasons, followed by very competitive teams until they shot the moon before last season on Cabrera, et al., and fell apart. I guess there's a message there.
Meanwhile, the problem for the Os is that the pitching was so ugly -- except for Guthrie -- last year that fans can't stand to watch the games. At a party a couple days ago, several of us were talking about the Os, and we realized that none of us went to a game last year -- for the first time any of us could remember. As for watching the games on TV, we all generally watched only portions of most games because the pitching was so disappointing. One person likened turning on a game to entering a room to look for something and discovering that the dog had just farted there -- you leave quickly.
Why is Kawakami as a #2 a frightening thought? Most good fans know this team is slated to win between 58-68 games next year. Most good fans know we are shooting for 2011 and beyond. How we piece it together for next year or two is unimportant. In fact, we will require the dominant players such bad years will yield in draft choices. What is important is continuing to build up the farm system to an elite level after years of bad drafts and poor developmental decisions. Aside from that, the division has never been this strong, in time through attrition and age this mountain will become less of a climb, one hopes anyway. Don't worry about results for the next two years is my advise. It's sort of like when you first start golfing, you're better off not to keep score at first.
Roch, I thought that we needed two addtional arms, but that was before the Orioles non-tendered Cabrera. With him gone, I really think that we need to pick up three starters. There is a load of young talent that may become succesful in the big leagues - we've got so many young pitchers coming up. I can see a lot of good things coming out of Albers, Arrieta, Erbe, Liz, Matusz, Olson, Patton, Penn, Spoone, Tillman, et.al. But, I would not count on two or three of those making it next year. Right now, it's Guthrie and four days of rain. Maybe Waters? Uehara and Kawakami both look good to me - but you sign both and youj're still at 4 starters. Maybe your fifth starter is Looper?
Remember the fan. You do not field a team to play for the owners to an empty stadium or private TV viewing. This is entertainment. When does anyone go to a movie knowing the movie was a "D" rated quality. What Premium actor would be in a movie knowing before it started the movie would be a "D" quality and not get reviews to compiment their talent.
So fans are the attention point for a mlb organization. The entertainment has to be worth the dollars the fan pays. Attendance is falling. Hope is dwindling. Therefore contribution to profits are falling. MASN is contributing more each year. The accountant can tell you about the profits to meet the owners preference for what story of profit or loss they want. Not difficult at all.
So the Hope that was pumped up in the fans by the O's before the free agency period about the hunt for Tex built up the hope. The hunt was not equal to the hype. If you like a girl you pay attention with gifts.,have people tell how nice you are and constant bidding with date requests. Did this happen with the courtship with Tex. Ho Hum was the attempt. Who cares if he did ot come. The attempt was less than the propaganda from the O's about a serious attempt. Stop thinking the fan dumb. Stop thinking the fan does not see the walk and talk contradiction.
I did not want Tex. I want pitching. So get in the hunt for real and quality pitching with 3 year deals. Really make the minors talent force you to bring them up when ready. Walk the Walk.No more Talk.
Don not forget Markekis and Roberts. What do they gain by signing with the O's under the current courting techniques?What do they see as the short ad long run opportunityies for pride in competetion? If te O's want both tey need to show serious courtship techiques. They need to woo them with come serious pitching to support their defense and offnsive skills. Sign them both. Both are center peices fo this organization. Yes it is going to cost some serious money to sign these two and get the pitchng. But you have that let from the Tex Hunt.
This is not a hit on McPhail. This is perception of what is happening. Perception is everything.!!!!!
Jack, Let go of the oft-repeated belief that "Liz is a wild man." Liz had some good games last year and, in post-game interviews, showed a seriousness and desire to win that other players ought to emulate. I do not understand why people continue to see him as a reliever or closer. The guy has the tools, and there is no evidence that he is any kin, mentally, to the enigmatic Daniel Cabrera. Let these guys show their stuff OVER TIME, as the Orioles did with Daniel, and then decide based on the numbers.
Hey Jack, I don't think it's fair to label the GM as a puppet. If he was, Matt Wieters would not have signed last summer and Jay Gibbons would still be on the team... maybe Tejada as well.
I wish I had the time to do some research but we all know that only a percentage of highly-regarded minor-league pitching prospects ever achieve Major League success. What is that percentage? 10%? 33%? 50%? So looking at the nine prospects you evaluated, we know they won't all pan out... but it's reasonable to assume a few will.
Every once in a while, a Major League team will benefit from good timing (and good luck) and actually have a higher percentage of prospects make good at the big league level at the same time. It's happened before and it will happen again, and that's why I guess I can be categorized as the eternal optimist.
Jack, you actually labeled four of those nine guys as potential #2-4 starters. I hope you are right. It may make you more of an optimist than you care to admit!
Hey Jack,
Calm down man, yes Angelos is a problem, but I actually think he has given MacPhail the reigns here and his resume speaks for itself, two rings with Minnesota and he built the current Cubs team. As for not having a number one starter yet you left out Erbe and Arrieta. Now Erbe I'm not too high on but he is only 20 and he has the raw stuff and potential to be a number one starter but he could end up as a middle reliever or closer if he cannot develop his secondary pitches. Arrieta, on the other hand is the wild card here I think he can hit 97 with his fastball but just needs to work on his command and secondary pitches as well (he has three) so he could potentially be an ace. The Orioles also have another top five pick this year so they should be able to try and find a pitcher that can be an ace with that pick. They can also try to get a potential ace back for Roberts. Last but not least, this is all projection, in all honesty we have no idea where these pitchers will end up, for all we know they could all fail, or Matusz could become an ace, Tillman, or Arrieta, or even all three you just never know. That's why they play the game.
It sounds as though "Jack" has been drinking the "Jack" koolaid. It sure is nice having a great baseball scout commenting on Roch's blog.
Obviously Angelos is not the best owner ever. But all the talk about how horrible it has been to be an Orioles fan for 20, 30, 40 years and how backwards things are is somewhat nonsense. 12 years ago we went to the ALCS twice in a row. We even went wire-to-wire. If we had won a world series either of those years we would be one of nine teams to have won a world series in that time.
All of the people who want to spend spend spend on all the *great* free agents.... are you forgetting about contracts like David Segui's, Albert Belle's, Tony Bautista, etc. We ALREADY TRIED signing free agents and winning, and we sucked.
MacPhail has only been around for a little over ONE year. If you want a team that will immediatly satisfy you, stop rotting for the Orioles, (you're dragging us down and making us look stupid anyways) and move to New York (where a lack of baseball knowledge and a mouth that moves faster than a brain is commonplace)
The O's in an arms race is analogous to Iraq. There is dubious intelligence about WMD's in the system, but the reality is there is nothing there. If anything, just a few scuds more likely to self destruct.
Actually according to MLB.com both Arietta and Matusz are project #1 types. Tillman I worry about because he only goes up to 6 innings. I know its not 1996 but I remember Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine talking about the 1st thing they want to do on days they pitch is pitch well enough to go 9 innings. Thats not how the kids are taught anymore.
JRon,
MLB actually has better parity than the NFL. It is a common misconception that the NFL has better parity. Take a good look at how many different teams have made the playoffs and won the World Series over the last decade and compare that to the NFL. Also keep in mind that the NFL has two more playoff spots then MLB.
The NFL could very well have a team go 0-16 this year!
Roch, I can go 3 innings on the Nintendo Wii, maybe I should come for a tryout. I might need 5 days rest between though.
Seriously, I heard the balls are different in Japan, would that be a big adjustment for these guys ?
Roch: I'm an old guy. Maybe too old for today's clime. I remember having Hal Keller as a ninth grade math teacher. He played for the Senators. He was Charley Keller's brother and later general manager of the Seattle Mariners. He taught school from October 1 to March 1 to support his family.
We are in tough times. I recently learned of 76 applicants for a $10.00 an hour job. In another instance, 10 days of interviews for one other $10.00 an hour job.
Last winter I visited the American Doll store in New York. I was offended by the cost of dolls and doll clothes. That there was a six month wait to have lunch with your doll.
I am offended by the salaries being paid. Many of the ball players don't have a marketable skill if they had to survive in the real world. They would be in that line for $10.00 an hour jobs.
Something is wrong with our world. I can remember in the 70's going to an Orioles game. $1.50 for adults and .85 for children under fourteen in the left field bleachers. 50 cents to park. We got to see some of the greatest baseball ever from that venue. Now my eyesight isn't real good. No use thinking outfield bleachers. I can't see that well. I went twice last year. I bought two seats behind home plate in the second level. They were non-prime games and cost $40.00 each. I drove 100 miles each way. I'm retired. Don't know how many of those trips I will be able to afford this coming season. When will reality strike the baseball world. Was the word strike a freudian slip.
Somehow, we have our values all out of wack.
Rich,
Have you ever heard the expession "a bird in the hand......."
I'll say it one more time, go get Jon Garland!
"Actually, most of this staff looks like No. 2 right now. Yeah, you know what I mean."
Funny stuff right there Roch.
As far as pitching goes, yes please Andy shell out some of that Tex money for a QUALITY veteran!
I'm finally over the Tex NON-signing, it is in all likelyhood for the best...blah blah blah about that enough has been said.
I honestly think our future is pretty bright, we do have 25 pitchers on the 40 man roster and i've liked what i've seen from the youngsters, i only pray that we've done well and these kids can produce in the majors and SOON.
As for Nick and Brian,, just get extensions done. Like now, Andy. We will need them in the years to come, we can't just cut Brian loose in any shape or form. He deserves to win and win here.
But thanks again for everything Roch, you do a stellar job reporting and entertaining. Happy Holidays.
Thanks for the entries over the past couple of days. Roch.
I see that Sheets, Lowe, and Perez are still out there on the market. I realize Sheets is an injury risk, but are the O's not linked to these three guys because these players want longer-term contracts than the O's are willing to give right now due to the rising pitching talent? If it is a length-of-contact issue, what would be the harm in offering three incentive-laden deals (especially in the case of Sheets) if it just means that they could be trade bait when the younger guys are ready? Any thoughts? Thanks.
What about Bergenson?
maybe the giants should see what cap anson and three-finger mordecai brown are up to?
Roch,
Is there any talk at all of us looking at pitchers that have fallen out of favor? I'm talking names like Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.
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I've never heard Bailey's name, and I haven't heard Hill's since last winter. I always stress that doesn't mean the Orioles haven't discussed them, but I'm not aware of it. - Roch
I bet the guys at OH are green with jealousy. All they have for a celebrity is a washed up talking head. Here on the other hand we have a true star. Obviously Jack played the anal cavity dwelling butt monkey in "Bruce Almighty" making him a true movie star. Roch, I sure hope that you dont quit or need treatment for depression now that Jack has said that he "can't say you are right". This is no assessment of your scouting skills; it is just that Jack is physically incapable of saying anything positive.
He has never seen Matusz pitch but is already disappointed in him. He can tell from one season at A ball that Tillman is only a #2 and not a number one, despite number one stuff and makeup. Knows Patton cannot start despite never having seen him pitch. and on and on ad nauseum. I bet he also knew Koufax, Ryan and Sam McDowell would put it all together, that Dennis Martinez would stop drinking and put a decent career together in Cleveland and that Maine would find an extra 4 MPH on his fast ball in NY. What were you thinking leaving the future up to the fates with all the uncertainty that brings when you could just ask our perfect, infallible anal cavity dwelling butt monkey about the future? Why in heck did you bother with all those calls to MacPhail and other official sources when you could just put the zoo on your speed dial to get the poop straight from Jack talking out of his butt . . . or somebody's butt anyway. Here he has already told you the future of a dozen pitchers. You can write their retirement articles already. Matusz retired today, after a disappointing career in which he never became more than a number two pitcher with a rag arm, which will certainly carry more weight than his 300 wins and 7 world series rings. Tillman retired last year after a disappointing career during which his 2 Cy Young awards and 5,000 strikeouts were more than offset by the lack of ever achieving number one status. Liz retired with 350 saves but was haunted by never being a starter. File those retirement stories with the archived obits. Then add in the story about how no one showed up at the funeral of Jack, the anal cavity dwelling butt monkey. Co workers who remember him best shook their head at his hubris and related stories about his trying to tell Jim Carrey how to be funny and Jennifer Aniston how much sexier she would be if she wore her hair differently. Sports fans only half jokingly consider his funeral as the start of the current Oriole dynasty which has the team approaching the Yankees record of most World Series wins in history. This story was such a local institution that in 2016, after the team's 4th straight world series championship, a statue was erected outside of now venerable OPACY, of beloved Oriole owner, Peter Angelos, with Jack's head protruding from his posterior, an anal cavity dwelling butt monkey to the very end.
The one good thing that came out of his post is that we can stop blaming Peter Angelos for the problems of the Orioles. It is now apparent that the common denominator is the black cloud of negativity Jack brings to the Orioles. HE is the problem with this team and nothing good will happen until he chokes on a banana or slips on a peel.
EdSoPa - every year only one guy gets to go out with the captain of the cheerleaders. You can ask her, you can promise a limo and two dozen roses and a cordon bleu meal. But unless you have pictures of her with the math teacher, you cannot force her to go with you instead of the captain of the football team.The Orioles courted her. They made offers. They were rebuffed from the start. They were told, "no way, you pimple faced geek". Tex looked the class over and right from the start decided on the quarterback instead of the chess club prez. You are like the bullying parent belittling his kid for not being able to take the cheerleader to prom when he had no shot with her all along. Give it up. Brian Roberts doesnt want to be here. Unless you morph into the QB, he doesnt want you as a prom date. So get ready for more teen angst when he leaves. Markakis? He has to share our locker for three more years. Who knows where we will be by then. Maybe our baby birds will be born by then and he will want to marry us.
Jack,
One quick question for our resident GM. How many baseball teams actually "have" a bonafide #1 starting pitcher?
To answer the question, if the O's, as you suggest, end up with 3-4 #2's and #3's from your list, then frankly, leaving the rest as 4's, 5's and relievers, I'd say we done good!!!!
Go O's!