The Teixeira countdown
Evander Holyfield lost a majority decision to WBA heavyweight champion Nikolai Valuev, giving him an 0-4-1 record in his last five title fights.
What's more shocking - that Holyfield continues to fight at age 46, or somebody named Nikolai Valuev is the WBA heavyweight champion?
Keep your fingers crossed that Mark Teixeira chooses a team before Christmas. That would be the best present I could receive.
Speculation is mounting that we're only a few days away from a decision. There isn't one reported offer that we're certain is accurate, which is amazing in this day of intense media scrutiny and 24-hour cable and internet surveillance.
I'm told that a person close to Teixeira says the Orioles have offered the highest average yearly salary, but not the highest overall amount. It's already believed they're the only club not offering an eight-year deal.
If this is true, and I certainly don't have confirmation from the Orioles, I'll speculate that they're willing to pay $150 million over seven years, which comes to $21.4 million per year. Feel free to check my crummy math, but I'll warn you that I used a calculator.
The Nationals reportedly submitted an eight-year, $160 million proposal at the winter meetings, and the Angels are believed to be in the same vicinity, though Torii Hunter made reference to an offer that blew the others away. According to Buster Olney and Peter Gammons, the Red Sox are offering $165-$170 million.
That statement from Hunter makes me think the Angels have the highest offer on the table, but we need actual numbers here. And as I wrote earlier today, the Nationals are widely regarded as the only team that would venture into 10-year, $200 million territory.
Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. That's about all you can do. But I think we can all agree that a resolution would be best for everyone.
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Categories (click for archive)Roch Kubatko | Roch Kubatko Orioles |















I think he's going to be a National when it's all said and done. Crazy hunch I got.
come on home mark!!
Roch thanks for all the info, now get some sleep.
www.mlb.com, Saturday night
Their most recent article states this:
"This is going to end the old-fashioned way," the source said, maintaining that money will not be the decisive factor. "He wants to be on the East Coast, and his wife wants to be there. I believe the decision will be based on family and geography."
That's good for both the Nats & the O's. Angelos will benefit from MASN no matter where Tex lands. If we lose him to another team, at least it won't be Boston or NY!
The Orioles have been in an 11 year recession and still haven't hit rock bottom. Although I think Teixeira would be a nice addition to an improving core of young players, I still think the focus needs to be on developing the young players...
Ok, ok, yes it would be nice to have a player on the team who can actually make an all-star team without a manager shuffling through stats to see which Oriole he is going to be stuck with this year. Yes,it would be nice to see the hometown kid do the right thing and come home.
But with the declining economy and the current state of the team is it wise for the Orioles to be handing out 150-200 million dollars to a single player? I may be one of the only diehard Oriole fans that sees the big picture that not signing Teixeira may be a blessing in disguise. Then again, I may just be an idiot who is rambling on. Time will tell.
there is not enough wine in the world to get me thru this. mostly because i drank just THAT MUCH of it LAST winter during the "is he or isn't he a cub yet?" debacle.
must. find. new. liver.
Roch, a reporter was talking about Holyfield, said his 11 million dollar home was in forclosure. He also makes support payments to 11 children by 8 different women !!! What was your question again ? Oh, why does he fight at age 46 ? It's fight or jail my man !!! Also, the O's better be above 21.5 per yr. I'll bet you he signs for more than that !!! Maybe 23 per yr. would do it.
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO RAAAAAAAAAAAAAVENSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Roch- If THAT IS THE CASE I THINK THAT WOULD WORK.
COME ON ANDY!!!!!!
Roch- I PRAY that you can answer this question. If.... the O's do not sign Tex. (I think we are all being had by the FO), And, they do not go after Sheets or Kawakami, despite Sheets probably being a bargain, then will you ask Andy or Peter or someone in the warehouse, where is the Orioles money being spent? I mean, they didn't extend Nick. Not Bedard, Not BJ Ryan, Not Moose, Traded Miggy, Ramon.....Didn't give 95 to Vladdy......WHERE IS THE MONEY????
THEY CANT SWEETEN THE TEX DEAL???
EVERYONE IS WAY TOO GULLABLE.
Let me say it this way, the yankees sell out whether or not they sign CC or Burnett. But, they sign CC. They still would have sold out every game. But...They went out and signed Burnett.
Anyone can hate the Yanks all they want, but they do what it takes to win. Now, they have traded away a good part of their farm system but it doesnt matter. The O's dont pass 2 million fans and they DONT THROW US A BONE!!!! That is ridiculus.
Just another hired gun going to the highest bidder. Will Baltimore still love him in the morning if he goes elewhere...... ?
I would really love to have Teixeira on this team but I am starting to feel like it isn't worth it. Since we will most likely not compete until 2010 or 2011, Angelos should save his pennies, sign Roberts and Markakis, and the put the big bucks towards Pujols.
Sure it wasn't MacPhail but lets see who the O's have overpaid over the last few years. Gibbons, Baez, Trachsel, Loewen, Payton, Mora, Hernandez, Bradford and Walker. I gotta think the O's can afford to overpay on Teixeira a bit after throwing money away at these guys.
Also if he signs with the O'd Roch won't have to listen to people pissed off he signed elsewhere. And the Hot Stove show will have more to talk about then the lack of anyone in the rotation. Currently the Nationals have a slightly better rotation.
I can't believe that Macphail is not offering more to Tex, if the Nats get him that would be insane.
Roch-
This process could be the culmination and final "taps" of a once great and the "classiest" organization in pro-sports. It half died when the Colts left, then when they let Davey Johnson and Frank Wren go.
I do not believe that the O's are anywhere in this bidding. Some think that Boras has not even talked to the O's since they made their offer at the meetings.
Tex was just posturing when he said he dreamt of playing here. He was being political. Otherwise he would be here by now. I think if Boras called the O's or vice versa and said lets sit down and hammer something out, that it would be right there with everyone. He does not want to come here and/or the O's are not willing to pay over enough to change his mind. Boston and O's even money, and he goes to Boston.
This is a big blow for a turnaround.
Now answer me this, they didn't sign Konerko, Vladdy, or extend Bedard, Mussina, BJ Ryan, and others. They are having trouble extending Nick. They traded Miggy and Ramon. They are not spending 20+ million on Tex.
Now, they won't sign the Japanese pitcher, and are not even attempting to grab Sheets at a reduced rate.
I want to know, and maybe you can ask Andy or Peter....WHERE IS ALL THE MONEY?
The Yanks will sell out every game. But, they Sign CC. OK, they got the best pitcher, they will still sell out every game. BUT, WHAT DO THEY DO??? THEY GO OUT AND SIGN BURNETT!!!!
They don't have to do that. They would sell out every game regardless. The difference, and as much as I hate the Yankees, is THERE FRONT OFFICE GIVES THE FANS WHAT IT CAN TO WIN EVERY YEAR!. AND STEINBRENNER WANTS TO WIN!! ANGELOSSSS COULDN'T CARE LESS!!
THE O's HAVE A CHANCE TO SIGN THE 1 PLAYER THAT WE THE FANS HAVE DREAMED OF SINCE CAL LEFT. A GUY TO PLANT BEHIND NICK AND IN FRONT OF WEITERS FOR THE NEXT DECADE. A GUY THAT DOES NOT MAKE YOU ABANDON YOUR REBUILDING EFFORTS. A GUY WHO FITS INTO YOUR PLANS.
And they are not, will not, CHOOSE NOT, to pull the trigger.
So I want to know as a ticket buyer and MASN viewer, WHERE IS THE MONEY THAT BEEN SAVED, CUT, NOT SPENT, for this year, and the last 9?
Can you help me?
After being a pollyanna and thinking we're going to get him, I've come to the conclusion that he's not coming here. If he were, we would know it by now. And frankly, I'm fine with it. He and Boras have really opened my eyes as to how incredibly weird this whole thing is. People are losing their houses and jobs and we're breathlessly waiting for this guy to make a decision how where he's going to spend his millions. I'm just gonna watch my Orioles play hard--whoever is playing first base.
Make it $22 million a year over 8 years and be done with it! 8 years/$176 million.
Does anyone really have faith in the O's organization to pull this off. It would mean more fans in the seats , more promotional possibilities , more competitive , send positive signals to the fans , send positive signals to other players , yes it's the right thing to do. That is why the O's are not capable of pulling it off , all you have to do is look who the owner is.............Merry Christmas to all , thank you Ravens.......
Roch,
I know we thought D Cab needed a fresh start somewhere else and we needed a "clean break" but why are we going after older pitchers who don't seem to be super statistical upgrades who will end up costing more money.
Rosenthal on FoxSports has us chasing Brandon Looper and Tim Redding.
Pasting from the article here:
"Looper converted from a reliever to a starter with the Cardinals in 2007, going 12-12 with a 4.94 ERA in 175 innings. He took another step forward last season, going 12-14 with a 4.16 ERA in 199 innings. His salary was $5.5 million.
Redding spent the past two seasons with the Nationals, going 10-11 with a 4.95 ERA in 2008 and tying for the team lead with 182 innings. The Nationals declined to offer him a contract, unwilling to pay him what he projected to earn in salary arbitration — between $3 million and $3.5 million"
Cabrera signed with the Nats for what $2.86 mill?
Roch these guys are both more expensive and older than Cabrera and don't have any upside. Cabrera was crazy frustrating but Roch...it doesn't seem like we are "upgrading" here.
For the posters screaming no Tex...pitching pitching pitching...we aren't signing any top notch pitchers. I'm willing to wait for our minor league pitchers to improve AND SIGN TEX to speed up the rebuilding process.
Next year I'd rather lose 8-6 each game with Tex than 8-1 without him. It'd be more exciting at least until our prospects are ready. Obviously I'm not counting Tex to put in 5 extra runs a game...i'm just exaggerating to make a point.
Accepting a lower bid with a higher annual salary might be a good way for Boras & Tex to save face after the Red Sox called their bluff. If he demands an opt-out clause what do the extra years matter anyway? Get it up to the 7yr/160million range and he might jump on it.
Morning Roch, Crazy as can be....this Tex mess....but like you know the info that flows is so conflicting...seems if the O's really have the highest annual salary..that adding one more year to his 7....would get it done for the O's if all reports are accurate..it is so crazy it is boardering on insane..weird how all reporters feel their contacts are the ones that are the most official or accurate..just strongly believe that you are so closely connected you have the most accurate O's news...but that being said...not knowing the others teams status means no one knows crap really....have a feeling we will all learn the real answer at the same time....
Roch, What's more shocking to me is the Joe Torre (Dodgers skipper) calls Rafael Furcal, "Raffy." I always thought there was one "Raffy," being Rafael Palmeiro (O in 94-98, 04-05).
Speaking of Palmeiro, he was just inducted into the Mississippi State University Hall Of Fame on October 11th.
Since were looking for a first baseman, if Teixeira doesn't work out, Raffy is still a free agent waiting for a phone call and living in Texas.
Roch:
You've done a great job trying to keep everyone informed in this matter. I know for myself, and maybe others, dealing with Boros is getting a little "stale". If MARK wants to "come home" what's a few million $ when you're talking about that kind of $. If he wants to be near his parents because of their "health", it's a no brainer. Sign with the O's and be the next Cal in Baltimore. I'm at the point, that if he doesn't sign before Christmas, forget it and I will boo him when he comes to town no matter who he plays for. I think the O's have gone as long as they can. IF he wants to play in Baltimore, he's got to show a "pair" like ARod and tell Boros to shut up and make the deal. If more GM's would have the guts Shurholtz has with these agents, the game would better off.
John
I have to beleive the O's have gone at least 8 years. If the Nats are willing to go 10 and the Red Sox, Yanks and Angels are willing to go 8 it seems absurd w're balking with 7. If so than I can't beleive the FO is serious in their pursuit, but is just trying to look like they are for fans. In other words, make it lok like they're trying ,but just stay below the actual contenders. Kind of like our whole team.
It is being reported on mlb.com that Yankees might be involved. Say it aint so Roch!
One billion dollars for one year!
Honestly, it all becomes mind numbing after a while. I don't think Teixeira needs a bigger house. A lot has been made of the so-called "hometown discount," but I'm not so sure that factors in as much. I doubt Boras would allow it unless two offers were relatively close. What may make a difference, however, is the immediate financial impact a Teixeira signing would have on different franchises. For example, if Boston, the Yankees or the Angels signed him, the difference in their respective season ticket or merchandise sales may be negligible. Their payoff would be long term, hopefully after he helps them win a World Series.
However, it's very different for Baltimore or Washington. For these teams, a Teixeira signing would instantly fuel an upsurge in ticket and merchandise sales. There would be an immediate economic impact. What isn't as easy to ascertain is how great that impact would be. Would it mean an extra $20 million in revenue? An extra $20 million in net profits? If so, then both the Orioles and Nationals would be in a position to outbid other clubs by that corresponding amount... providing they have the resources and everyone in the front office and ownership signs off on it.
I hope Sports Illustrated or ESPN has a writer or two closely following this with plans to produce a feature article once the signing is complete. It would be fascinating to get some insight on the strategy used by all the teams as well as the Teixeira camp. Then we could finally put a lot of these rumours to rest. On the other hand, if I'm Boras, I don't know how many of my "trade secrets" I'd be willing to divulge. I've always believed a good businessman never tips his hand to anyone other than the people directly involved.
Okay, this is reminding me of the Brett Favre situation. Loved him...don't like him...cheering AGAINST him big-time! How much money does one person need? I would be sitting in a corner sucking my thumb, afraid to leave the house in fear of being injured, if I were offered this much money and hadn't accepted it...graciously...and kissing the feet of the others that I turned down thanking them for their generosity!
I feel like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde w/the Orioles. I've mostly been Mr. Hyde where the Orioles are concerned but today I'm turning over a new leaf. I'm going to go to the Dr. Jekyll side. The Orioles are doing all they can to sign this guy...he either wants to play here or he doesn't. I'm also changing my name from RSF to Rhonda (ala Dr. Jekyll).
For Christmas i want Texxxxxxxxxx!!!!!! Also, Looper and Odalis Perez since they both put up good era's last year, and they won't cost a lot so we can put all that money into Tex.
Rosenthal has an artical up saying the O's and Nats are no where near contention. And signing Teixeira is more of a thing the Sox or Yanks should be doing. Because they like spending waaaay too much money on everything.
Being a team in the AL East not named Yankees or Red Sox and you get little respect. Money = Respect.
And why would the Yanks want to go after Manny? Why not just wait a year and go after Holliday? Its not like they don't have enough OFs.
For Odalis, we would pay a couple million for two years and get a decent starter
Get Wolf, Looper and Perez
Wolf- 2 years for 5 million
Looper- 2 years for 4 million
Perez- 2 years for 3 million
Guthrie
Wolf
Looper
Perez
Patton
I was told there'd be no msth. I can hear it now...now batting for the Orioles...first baseman...Kevin Millar.
Can we clone him? Teixeiras for everybody!
Looper and Redding will put up DCab numbers. I'd rather swing a trade with someone like Scott for a younger starter with potential such as Phil Hughes. Looper and Redding seem like steps backwards.
Hey Roch -
Are all these folks pleading for little Markie to come home gonna blow kisses his way when he comes to town in a Sux jersey? This is absurd! Down here in Texas we let him have it every time he comes to town. He is not exactly this nice clean cut kid that mows people's lawn like a lot are making him out to be. OK, he's not a cancer either. But I think it's time for Andy to move on.
My Christmas wish for the O's, everybody but the Nat's pulls out of the Tex bidding, and MacPhail announces a signing: Ben Sheets. Then we follow up with Paul Byrd and finish with Looper. Heck if we still want a 1st baseman, give Burrell a shot. We really need RH power to level out our LH power. I'm not a big Burrell fan, but I probably like him better than Dunn. Burrell offers more flexibility for a team with limited depth.
Lastly, for those griping "how much money does Tex need'! Give it up!! It isn't about others deciding how much money someone needs. I have no problem with Tex getting what he wants. Although I think he & Boras are finding out the these big monster contracts are tougher to come by then they envisioned.
Ryan brings up good questions. Where has the money from the previous decade gone? Someone should answer Ryan's emails here. If you're going to talk about baseball in Baltimore, it's a good place to start!
Why have we been so terrible for the last decade? Have things really changed under AM? I don't think missing Tex means the Orioles are dead, but then we BETTER give some of this money to Nick, Brob, and a decent rotation.
What I fear is that we make a decent offer to Tex (7/$150 is pretty decent), then we lose him... and sign some crappy pitchers like the ones named here. On top of that, we lose Nick because Angelos won't extend his contract for what the player is worth.
That is my bigger fear. WHERE IS THE MONEY?? WHERE DID IT GO?? WHERE IS THE $$500B HE WAS GOING TO BUY THE REDSKINS WITH??
Roch,
Some comments about the reported salary figures. I know I'm a little late to this thread and no one will likely read it, but I'm hoping that you do and perhaps alter you reporting slightly.
First, unless you know the actual structure of these contract proposals, you cannot determine which is worth more or less than another. You do not have enough data. Manny Ramirez got a 8/160 from the Sox in 2001 and Teixeira is (apparently) receiving 8/160 offers today. Are they the same? There is no way to tell. First, money paid in 2001 is worth a lot more than money paid in 2009 - even taking into account the recent drop in the markets. On the other hand, Manny deferred 31M with payments spread over sixteen years beginning in 2011! That is a dramatic reduction in value. Do these new offers have deferred money? We obviously don't know, nor do we know a host of other details.
In terms of the Orioles' supposed 7/150 offer, here is a question: Which is worth more, 5/55 or 3/31? Well, if your name is AJ Burnett the answer is 3/31 because you just converted 12M for 2009 and 2010 into 16.5M for each year plus the same amount for three more years.
If Tex remains healthy, that eighth year is likely worth more than the 10M difference. Guaranteed years represent a gamble for BOTH the team and the player. The Burnett example (and the ARod example) are demonstrations that the teams have not valued this opt-out provision properly (but Boras has!). If you are going to offer an opt-out clause, which I personally wouldn't do, you need to significantly backload the contract. Both Burnett and ARod had essentially level payments, virtually guaranteeing that the player, if healthy, would be better off opting out. And guaranteeing that the team would lose if the player were injured. Lose-lose for the team, win-win for the player.
Bottom line? MLB multi-year contracts are extremely complex financial instruments. They cannot be compared by a simple 7/150 vs 8/160.
So that's my rant. Sorry to be so wordy.
Tex makes sense. In fact, the longer the deal, the better (as long as we don't go into gray hair territory). He's a proven hitter, and we're rebuilding, not trying to win tomorrow. Paying a premium for two years to have him the next 6-8 would be a solid investment, both from a PR and from a roster perspective. 1Bs tend to be very reliable, too -- less opportunity for injury at that position.
Hey Mark, you make some excellent points. That's exactly the kind of detail that will make a player choose one offer over another. And it's those types of dry and confusing numbers that are lost on most readers and fans. Everyone loves to simplify but there is nothing simple about all of this.
This is part of the reason why many organizations aren't more open with the media when it comes to negotiations. Can you imagine a team of three chartered accountants holding a press conference explaining accounting principles, tax shelters, interest rates, and investment strategies? I'm afraid Roch and his brethren may be in over their heads, and the fans senses would glass over until they completely lost interest.
What does it matter if we sign Tex or not the O's are still gonna suck cause people one player doesn't make a team. We have a suck @#$ rotation at best and as much as I "gulp" hate to say it the Skankees and the Bread Sox and even the Blue Gays and now the Gay Rays are MILES ahead of us, we are the whipping boys of the AL East people, period!! I love the Orioles, been going downtown since I was a wee lad in the days of Bumbry, Kiko Garcia, the stick Belanger etc... so I know a good team when I see one. Nothing is ever going to change until you chop the head off of this organiztion, and by that I mean Peter not so Great Angelos, it all begins with him!! So again Tex will not put us over the top, I'll take three more Nicks and a decent rotation and now you have the begining of a team, let this so called "Home Town" boy slank right up to the Bread Sox or Skanks cause we all know thats exactly where this greedy little Boras puppet will end up, 'nuff said! Go O's 2015??