Waiting on the young pitchers
As the days dwindle until the start of spring training, the Orioles rotation is not looking any stronger. The Orioles clearly come up a little short here and are going to need someone like Hayden Penn, Radhames Liz, David Pauley or Brian Bass to really surprise to hold this unit together.
Meanwhile, the arms in the minors continue to get national recognition. Last week, ESPN's Keith Law ranked his top 100 minor league prospects. While Matt Wieters was number one, the O's pitchers were also well represented with Brian Matusz at 28, Chris Tillman at 40 and Jake Arrieta at 92.
In addition to that, not rated were Brad Bergesen, who won the Jim Palmer award last year and David Hernandez, who led the Eastern League in strikeouts.
With the rotation concerns, I asked Andy MacPhail if any of these young guys could impress the brass enough in March to win a Major League job by opening day.
"My preference would be not to push somebody here before their time," MacPhail said. "If it becomes self-evident in spring training that it's their time, then I'm certainly not close minded to anything.
"But as a team strategy we are trying to develope the type of cushion in terms of time that we think our players are going to need. Really, part of our job is to introduce the players into the Major Leagues when they have a reasonable chance to be successful. We always have to keep that in mind."
These quotes might frustrate some who can't wait to see the young guns, but it's better to call them up a little too late rather than too early.
In his minor league career, Daniel Cabrera made a TOTAL of 11 starts at Double and Triple-A. Talk about a rush job. The days of doing that are over. Hopefully, in the end, it all will be worth the wait.
On another topic, the O's just don't seem interested in Ben Sheets, who may cost 8 or more million dollars for at least two years. He's been on the DL six times in his career, and unless the club has a radical change of heart, they are just not going to take that chance.
 |
Categories (click for archive)Steve Melewski |
Stupid of the Orioles to not be interested at all in Sheets. When healthy, he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. I am glad to see that the days of rushing starters are over. It's nice to have enough depth (finally) to do that.
_______________________________________________________
Maybe if the price comes down on Sheets they will have more interest. Or maybe if he only signs a one-year deal. I'm a little suprised like you that they have had such little interest. Then again almost all of baseball seems wary of his injury past.
Steve
Hi Steve,
I am looking at a current staff of:
Guthrie, Uehara, Hendrickson, Liz, Albers
Sherrill
Ray
Johnson
Walker
Sarfate
Penn
Pauley
With Bergesen, Hernandez, Tillman, Mickolio, Hoey, McCrory, Patton, Arrieta, Matusz all arms that could help the staff at differing times during 2009.
I believe that Burres, Hennessey, Waters, Simon, Bass should be non-options that do not come close to making the roster.
Baez had trouble getting batters out over 1ip, so I have a hard time seeing him transition back to being a starter.
I think the team will showcase him a lot in the spring, and attempt to trade him. If they can not trade him, they will cut him prior to Opening Day.
_____________________________________________________________
You sized it up well, Chris. It wil be interesting to see what Baez can do if healthy. Bass had some impressive stints last year and maybe could push for a mid relief job. As almost always, someone will suprise us, it happens every spring. - Steve
It's really a shame the O's aren't interested in Sheets. He's really a phenomenal pitcher, and would really be fun to watch. I can't understand how they ignore the injury issues to Uehara and play them up on Sheets. Oh well.
Regardless, I still think they need another proven starter or our bullpen will be worn out by June like last year, and risk more guys getting injured.
_________________________________________________________
Uehara has had a mostly healthy career while Sheets has been on the DL six times and some believe there is no guarantee he will be ready by opening day. He is no doubt a real risk. The O's really need Liz or Albers to be lights out or someone to be a real suprise to have an even fair rotation while we wait on the young guys. - Steve
Steve,
Great article. How come nobody talks about Jason Berken? He had pretty solid number at Bowie in 2008.
__________________________________________________________
It's funny, David Hernandez had a lower ERA and more strikeouts than Tillman and Bergesen, but he doesn't get the same pub and Berken had stats very close to Bergesen, who won the Jim Palmer award. I really like Hernandez but I seem to be higher on him than others. I will say this, even though Hernandez and Berken are not considered elite prospects like Matusz and Tillman, they are still very much on the O's radar and easily could pitch their ways on to the big club. - Steve
What about Randy Wolf? He might make more sense as a lefty, less of an injury past, and could be cheaper.
___________________________________________________________
He averaged only 16 starts per year from 2004-07. The O's seem to have little interest in Wolf. - Steve
Jim Johnson has # 1 starter potential, but Trembley seems intent on destroying his arm this season in this overated 8th inning relief role. Use the hot hand in the bullpen for that spot...Unlike relievers, top shelf starters don't grow on trees. Palmer was salivating over his size, demeanor and stuff he had to be a starter last summer before his overworked induced injury last year. He was a starter in the minors...If he has a regular work regimin associated with starting pitching, he could be a top flight starter for the Birds for 10 years...otherwise,for the sake of a handful of more wins, Trembley will blow his arm out!!! What do you think? Are you willing to hold Trembley's and Kranitz's feet to the fire on this and just not accept the answer 'We are comfortable with him in the 8th inning role'? Thanks!
__________________________________________________________
No, I agree that Johnson should stay in the 8th.
He finally began to realize some of his potential for the first time last year - as a reliever and should stay there. You make it sound like 8th-inning pitchers grow on trees. Johnson is not going to start this year and despite the current holes in the rotation, I support that move. Quality late-inning relief is just as important as quality starting pitching. - Steve
to Chris:
Hendrickson most likely will not be in the starting rotation. Trembley said he is going to be long relief and maybe a spot start here and there (but he'd rather not have to have him the rotation at all). Albers and Patton are returning from shoulder surgery, so I don't see either of them jumping into the rotation right away. I think Brad Bergesen could be a star in spring training and grab a spot as well as Brian Matusz. Matusz might need some time in triple-A first to get his, barrings but he is a sure fire talent.
I'd say if we started the season now the rotation would shape up something like this:
Guthrie
Uehara
Liz
Waters
Bergesen/Patton/Matusz/Hendrickson (might have to go with a lefty with the 5th spot)
long shots: Bass, Burres, Penn, Pauley, Baez, Tillman
hopefully we pick up somebody like Braden Looper. for the 3rd spot. hopefully!
__________________________________________________________
Justin, you need to go back and re-read this story. Andy is basically telling us without making a 100 percent proclamation, that the young guys will start in the minors. Matusz, who has never thrown a pitch for an O's affiliate, may even start at Frederick. They signed a guy like Hendrickson to possibly take a rotation spot whille the young guys get more seasoning.
The more veteran of the young and those out of options like Liz, Bass, Penn, Pauley, Burres and Albers will get every shot in spring training while the next wave of Bergeson-Matusz-Hernandez-Tillman-Arrieta, etc, will have to wait a little longer. No more Cabreras! - Steve
Just hearing you guys put Hendrickson in the starting rotation makes me feel this is going to be a long season. If he gets bad numbers in the national league, hmm, i wonder what they will be in the american league east. Atleast if he turns out to be another Steve Trachsel, they'll most likely release him. But then you have another hole to fill, I think the O's really need to sign a decent starter. There are a few left.
I witnessed to one of the greatest single seasons of pitching ever. Steve Carlton was acquired by the Phillies in return for several players, including Phils' top pitching prospect. Everyone said the Phils were mortgaging the future. That first Carlton season, the Phillies won 59 games. Carlton won 27, and had a 1.93era for that young team. But, he showed them how to win. The rest is history. We need that same stopper now. A young pitcher, like Carlton with a potential so high, you mortgage your future for him. There are a couple out there. One kid, started five games last year, and every start he had was a potential no hitter, including one against the Yankees. BRANDON MORROW. We need this guy NOW. 98mph DHFB (d**k high fastball)and an unhittable curveball. He'll put butts in the seats, and W's in the positive column.
_________________________________________________________
What makes you think the M's would trade a first-round pick? That would be like the O's trading Matusz. By the way, Morrow has walked 84 in 128 big lg innings.
Steve
I just read an interesting article that basically said that a year of Joba who ends up on the DL and is replaced by a waiver wire arm for 50 innings is still a top 10 fantasy starter. This is Ben Sheets, if he can be lights out for however long he can be lights out we are that much closer to getting where we need to be. Not to mention the guy has been to All-Star games, Cy Young candidate, etc. that would leave a lasting impression with the other pitchers that sit in the bull pen with him and interact with him in the clubhouse etc. I really think we can get 8 million out of him, which is not the 15 million he would command if he were thought to be healthy and pitch a whole season. Come on Steve, get on board, let's make a push at this, this is not the team we thought we were going to have coming into this season, we can contend, we need the gamble of Sheets to give this season a shot.
___________________________________________________
Repeating myself, I am not against the O's looking at Sheets at all. Just because I mention it, it won't have any impact on the front office, I assure you they don't take suggestions from any reporters, that's what their staff is for. Right now, the O's are not pursuing him. - Steve
I enjoyed the article. This is going to be another long year for the O's pitching staff. We should be a very good defensive team, average-above average offensive team, have a solid bullpen and a bad starting rotation in the best division in the game. We have 1 legit starting pitcher. We may still have to pick up another starter.
Do you really think that an 8th inning pitcher is as important as a starter??? Since we have Sherrill and Ray coming back I would love to give Johnson a try as a starter (if he has the endurance and assuming Ray is sharp)
______________________________________________________
I do, especially when you consider an 8th-inning guy could impact three or even four out of five games, instead of just one. The O's are not moving Johnson, not now, no matter how many fans ask about it and their logic for that is sound.
Steve
"Really, part of our job is to introduce the players into the Major Leagues when they have a reasonable chance to be successful." How does Mr. Mc P. plan to accomplish his stated job task if they have two established starters and no other pitchers on the team besides the minor leaguers? Last I checked you need five...
________________________________________________________
They do have players who have started in the Majors to plug in while waiting on the young guys like Waters, Liz, Albers, Baez, Burress and Bass. Right now he plans to accomplish that by using some of these guys and some of the other 33 reporting to camp before he calls up someone too soon. - Steve
I can't believe what I'm hearing!! There is a lot of emotion going on around here.
I would definitely be starting J Johnson, cause he is one of the best pitchers right now on the team. I wouldn't bring Kobe off the bench, right?! Having the better pitchers in the rotation, taking up more innings, will prevent the bullpen from getting so overworked.
That rotation would look much better with only 2 spots open instead of 3. Then if they do bring someone else in it would really look major league ready. Maybe they have a plan to sure up the rotation and that's why they are not thinking of moving him? We'll see! I'm excited for this year!! It's going to be a good one.
What about Troy Patton? How is he progressing? Any chance he will make the rotation this year?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The last time I talked to him, he was throwing and his shoulder was fine. He's not expected to begin the season with the Orioles after missing all of 2008. - Roch
steve or roch---have you met arietta, matusz and tillman?
what can you tell us about their personalities?
ps i have a good feeling about Liz, Penn, and Albers....hope
i'm right.
______________________________________________________
Matusz had a press conference after he signed late last year and was very articulate and very impressive - basically just like everything we had heard. Most expect he has a chance to move fast in the farm system and is very mature. I have not met Arrieta or Tillman yet. - Steve
Why is nobody slotting David Pauley into the back end of the rotation? I believe he's out of options, so certainly HE is not starting in the minors ("even if the "kids" are - and I think this verbage refers primarily to Tillman, Arrieta and Matusz, perhaps Bergesen, probably David Hernandez - these are the guys fans keep calling for, and who it would be profoundly stupid to rush). To me, Pauley is a clear replacement for Garrett Olson in the five slot in the rotation; he has pitched well in AA and AAA, although (like most control pitchers) has needed at least a season of adjustment to each new level. He likely will struggle this year (certainly from time to time), but he would seem like the intuitive choice as the fifth starter.
Also, I think it's very tough to consider relying on Albers to do anything this year... With no offense intended toward the O's medical staff, his labrum is not going to repair itself and a "throwing program" most often is an exercise in futility. I am worried that he will further injur it (partially-torn labrums are fairly easy to fix, but guys still tend not to come back from more severe tears), and I'm thinking that we'll see Albers struggle and take an early exit this season. I see lots of folks penciling Albers into the rotation, but I'm not convinced. I am inclined to think he should have had the surgery last July/August; at least then we would have seen him for a rehab stint the second half of '09 and back for the long term in 2010. As it stands, it's hard to see Albers contributing before 2011 (and by then he'll have been replaced in the long-term plans).
____________________________________________________
Pauley is on the long list of candidates for three spots after Guthrie & Uehara. He apparently is out of options, I don't know what his chances to clear waivers would be. But if he didn't make the opening day roster and if he joined Norfolk, he could be an early recall should there by any injuries. - Steve
What do you see Zach Britton or Brandon Erbe as? All Star, starter, long relif, what?
Do you think if the Orioles could get someone like
Martin Perez, Texas
Brett Cecil, Toronto
Derek Holland, Texas
That they could have the best 4 starters in all of baseball maybe?
Um... Steve Carlton was not traded for any prospects! It was a one-for-one deal, Carlton for Rick Wise. They didn't mortgage their future. Yikes, do some fact checking, bro.