Predicting Bergesen
We can be certain of one thing tonight as it pertains to rookie pitcher Brad Bergesen's major league debut:
He'll work quickly.
If you've never seen Bergesen on the mound, "quickly" means he'll pitch like his hair's on fire. He'll get the ball from the catcher and immediately look for the sign and go into his windup. He might even start his windup as he's getting the sign. Why wait? It's not like the kid can't multi-task.
Maybe that isn't exactly how a guy reacts if his hair's on fire. He might ditch the baseball and just hang around the water cooler, or dump Gatorade on his head as if he just won the Super Bowl. Locating his four-seamer probably isn't his first priority. But let's go with that comparison anyway until we come up with something better.
I also expect that, unless he's overcome with a severe case of the jitters, Bergesen will be around the plate most of the night. It could turn into a laser show, or he'll keep the White Sox's hitters off-balance and induce a bunch of grounders and weak fly balls. But he won't walk the ballpark.
So what can we realistically expect from Bergesen tonight?
I'll toss out the first prediction and say two runs in 6 2/3 innings. He'll walk two - and we'll argue that he's being squeezed - and strike out three.
Jamie Walker will retire a lefty to end the seventh, you'll stand up and stretch before the bottom half of the inning - even if you're watching the game at home - and Jim Johnson and George Sherrill will get the last six outs.
Or the game will be rained out.
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Categories (click for archive)Roch Kubatko | Roch Kubatko Orioles |
I like your line. Here's hoping.
6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 K, 2 BB.
Should be enough to keep us in the game. I can't remember if we rock Contreras or if he is hit-or-miss against us. I think its the latter. B-Rob and Nick have good numbers against him, though.
I'd say 6 ip, 2 or 3 er, a very similar line to waht Zimmerman had last night for the nats.
Roch you are right, walker will come in for the express purpose of giving up a home run to thome.....maybe he should be a righthanded specialist
I'm looking forward to seeing what jack has to say now that theyve dropped 5 in a row....he was pretty quiet there for a while, i need that kind of stupidity in my life sometimes-its entertaining
Personal observation-Pie looks like a monkey making love to a football in the outfield-has from day one of spring.Yeah he ran one down-even a blind squirrel finds an acorn ocassionally.
As much as I thought Mike Devereaux was a great guy and decent hitter,and very,very fast,I thought he was the worst outfielder and baserunner ever-no instincts.And Lee lacey never met a cutoff man he liked-at least not enough to throw the ball to-But Pie makes them look like gold glovers.
Give it up Dave.Riemold in left,Montenez playing all 3 of's to rest them,and Luke at dh.We need defense.
Get Hill and Patton up now and we can be respectable.Drop Eaton and Bass.Don't use Sarfate until he is well.----Geesh!!!!
(And send the scouts who are so high on Pie to an optometrist)
Roch:
Finally a breath of fresh air! As long as he doesn't pull a Liz he will be fine. Now let's give the others who have earned their chance-Weiters, Reimold, Montenez. Get rid of Bass, Eaton, Hendrickson, Freel, Pie. They either are not major leaguers or don't fit. I like Andino so by the way.
What will you get from Bergensen.....
A legitimate chance to win the game. He will keep you in the game, not walk too many batters along with making your bathroom breaks pretty quick.
And a legitimate chance to win is all the position players are asking from their starter teamates. Eaton Simon and Hendrickson very rarely give you this opportunity. They are filler on even the Royals or Pirates. Again, Andy needs to be held accountable for wasting the money on these sub-par minor league pitchers. Evaluator of pitching....Andrew is NOT!
But how much you want to bet once Bergy succeeds up here he will come out with some more Orange drink and serve it up by saying.....see this is what I was talking about, we bought some time until the Calvary came. How about your choices stunk so bad, we had no other choice. The smoke and mirrors doesnt work anymore Andrew.....Thanks Pete for hiring this "GURU" LOL
As long as he's not Turd Fergeson, I'll be happy.
Morning Roch, I think Bergesen will fight off the 1st inning jitters hopefully without getting blown out...and do decent too...6-7 innings...2-3 runs..hopefully it will all be good...the O's need a bit of luck and some home cooking..they have been looking terrible..we do not need to continue this pattern this early..and might as well start right tonight with Bergesen.
Roch,
You did this for Koji and he got shelled.
If Bergy gets shelled tonight, you have to promise not to have the readers of the blog go through this exercise again.
Superstitious? You bet.
CG, 5 hit, Shutout, Time of game: 2:08
Roch, are you hearing anything about a possible move to bring up an outfielder with Freel going down and Jones with that iffy hammy?
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Just speculation at this point. Nothing official. - Roch
Baby steps. Let's not put undue pressure on the kid and make him out to be our savior. If he pitches three more innings than runs he allows (5 IP, 2 ER; 6 IP, 3 ER; etc.), I'll be ecstatic.
I am not sure what to predict, but I sure hope he does well. I do think it's somewhat unfortunate that the first rookie pitcher to make his debut from the young stable that has been assembled is a guy who is projected as a bottom of the rotation guy. I think it's hard to expect him to come out and succeed out of the gate. I am sure if he falters, Jack, Brummie and company will be railing about how Andy's plan is smoke and mirrors. I think we all need to remember that more highly touted prospects--Penn and Liz for exampl--have faltered and that Bergesen's success or failure is not really a litmus test for whether the deep pitching now in the minors will yield a Rays-like rotation in the next couple of years. I trust that those who know more than I have decided Bergesen is ready; but, if it were up to me, we would see Pauley or Waters and Bergesen would pitch at least half the year at AAA. On the other hand, perhaps because Bergesen is not expected to be one of our top pitchers down the road, they see no harm in putting him out there now. In any case, I'll be rooting hard for him tonight and hoping he does well. At the risk of being a naysayer, I predict he won't get out of the fifth though, and we'll need to score a lot of runs to win tonight. I think he goes 4.1, 7H, 5ER, 3K, 1BB.
Morning Roch,
OK, I'll throw out mine.
6 complete, 4 runs (due to giving up a long ball), 3 walks (due to early jitters), and 5K's.
"Joe in the Dena", you must have played baseball as all of us who have are beyond superstitious with our routine. I second your motion that Roch refrain from this question again if Bergy gets shelled!!!
Roch, any additional updates on Freel?
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If I had 'em, I'd pass 'em along. Nothing yet. He's due back in Baltimore today after spending the night in a Boston hospital. No word on whether he's going on the DL. - Roch
Jack, your post shows your true colors (as if we hadn't seen them). Management is damned if they do, damned if they don't. They were wrong to sign stop-gaps and now they are selling kool-aid if one of the young pitchers they've assembled succeeds. You make no sense. And, stop with the "Andrew" crap. He goes by Andy. Or Mr. McPhail would do. You are free to criticize the guy, but the disrespect is old, very old.
5 innings pitched (I just do not see Trembley letting him pitch 6 regardless)
2 runs allowed
2 walks
4 K's
They'll have Bergesen on a pitch count and he'll be nervous (too much Garret Olson in my past to think otherwise), so I'm predicting about 5 innings, 6 hits, 4 runs, maybe 3 walks and 2 Ks.
Hopefully he can get past the jitters and he'll be one of those guys who perpetually give up more hits than innings, but their lack of walks and keeping the ball in the park make up for it. The key for him will be whether he can stay away from the long ball.
When it comes down to the laws of possibility verses the laws of probability, I'm siding with the rain. Reasoning.... runs! The Orioles couldn't find 3 runs if they had a 3 foot magnifying glass and a GPS device attached to their butts.
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I'm not a doctor, but I believe if you have a GPS device attached to your butt, it will actually give you the runs. - Roch
The only thing I'm willing to predict is that if I go to Bowie the game will be rained out and Bergesen will throw a gem at the Yard. If I go to Camden that game will be rained out and Arrieta will throw a gem at Bowie and someone else will wind up with the Weiters t-shirt that I should have gotten. (No offense to Koji, but I'm take it or leave it on his t-shirt)
I think Brad will be fine tonight...though considering he is a contact pitcher who is going to put the ball in play quite a bit it might be fair to him if Dave gives Pie a night off.
Bergesen will give this team hope!
He will also add additional pressure to Andrew. It will be interesting to see how he handles the true prospects. If Bergy struggles, will he be sent down? Or is he a fixture on this roster the rest of the year? Andrew has been preaching about waiting for guys to develop. Bergy is developed, so let’s see how well Andrew’s “plan” starts to work.
After a disastrous offseason for Andrew, finally signs of hope will start to emerge. Bergesen needs to be given time and patience. If he gets shelled, wave it off and send him back to the mound in 5 days. Keep giving him chances and he will succeed Andrew. My worst fear is that he will struggle and a certain former Cub will complete his rehab assignment and replace him in the rotation. Or some CHEAP has-been will turn up on the waiver wire (Andrew’s 99 cent store) and he will be signed and gift wrapped a spot in the rotation and on the roster like Eaton and Pie ( yes I know they traded for Pie).
As for my articles- I take breaks throughout the day to check Roch’s blog. Only thing to break up the monotony of reading five hours of Parliamentary debates or a 200 page report on some procurement gaffe. Unfortunately with the time difference the new ones do not start coming up until lunch time here.
So I get to the Park last night about 7:30, figuring the start would be delayed a bit as I had checked the Tides website and the game at 6:30 was still a go. The skies were bright, the temp was perfect, no more rain in the forecast...and come to find out it's a no go.
Now my conundrum is, do I go tonight or do I watch Brad? I'm really torn on this one...
Looking forward to seeing Bergy take the mound tonight and throw strikes! A foreign concept to some of our pitchers. Hoping for 7IP, 3 runs and a lot of ground ball outs.
How about the O's put Freel on the DL and call up Wieters to have a battery that Bergy is famaliar with!
Dear terpfan,
Goes ditto for me. Jack@$$ sort of reminds me of Lenny in "Of Mice and Men".
Roch, you looked great on TV yesterday. Yours are the only blogs I read. Uh, oh, now I've probably upset Peter Schmuck.
Taxes, the sun rising each morning...and Jack ranting. Blog readers, you can fill in the question.
If Bergeson struggles, do we give him another start? Absolutely, I'd say at least 6-7 starts.
As for Pie, I'm in agreement with other posters who advise patience. To me it's a win-win. If Pie straightens himself out over the next few weeks - great, if not, Lou and/or Nolan comes up with the same deal - patience.
We just got smoked by the Sox, but still have won three series. Take it easy O's fans, the good days are still ahead.
My prediction for Bergesen is, at the end of the evening, we will all wonder why he wasn't in the rotation to start the year. Even if the game is rained out.
If this kid bombs we might as well move the franchise to Montreal!
Anybody watch Zimmerman pitch for the Nats last night ? That is what a prospect looks like! I hate to say it.
You know, the BOOOG POWS are pretty hip!
And hopefully, after the Boston Tea Party, so are the O's!
Roch,
I know this is not your thing and it is off topic, but why is it when I hit the main MASN website and click on your latest blog entry (example, this one) that it posts 17 comments but when I click on it again then it posts more comments (as of now 23)? I don't get it and sorry didn't mean to give you a headache.
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Probably because I approved six more in between. Yes, I'm that quick. - Roch
I love how its the third week of the season and we want to get rid of guys like Pie to clear room for other young guys. Pie has too much potential to give up. This is a rebuilding team not a contender so you let a guy like Pie play a lot and ofcourse he is going to have his struggles. Adam Jones had them last year. All young guys go through them. Remember he is still only 24. You have to give the guy a chance. AND 3 weeks into the season isnt giving him a chance. If he is struggling half into the season than maybe you can bring up Montanez or Reimold but you still platoon them with him. You dont get rid of a guy like Pie who could be a big part of our rebuilding phase, you get rid of a guy like Freel or Scott to make room for Reimold or Montanez. Sorry to keep writing this Roch but man these fans piss me off because they want to get rid of a guy so quickly when its only 3 weeks into the season. They are acting like it is all-star break and we are half way through the season.
Is Andy McPhail responsible for bringing any of our top pitching prospects into the organization?
Roch - you may be no proctologist, but that line was the bomb. In the end, it seems you do want the runs. Especially those home run trots. Bergey would die a real happy guy if thesehitters can score him a load of runs quickly. Enaminute or so, even.
Calling him up this soon is a mistake. This season is a lost cause.
Terpfan...
I agree with your analysis on this blog's curmudgeon. It seems that Jack is only happy when the Orioles fail, because then he can say he was right. It seems to me that if he were an Orioles fan at all, he would be supportive to some degree (which he is not). I'm pretty sure he's a closet Red Sox fan...or maybe the Rays this year...whichever bandwagon he can jump. Funny, during the 6-2 start I rarely saw his name appear in this blog. And, as you pointed out, he is already beginning to contradict his rants from spring training.
Bergesen 4 2/3, 4 r, 2 er, 5 h, 1 bb, 3 k...but start number 2 will show vast improvement.
Roch, I caught the end of your stint on Scott's Show last Friday. You look more comfortable on TV now, you did a good job too buddy. I have a question, where was Anita? She was on the show earlier, it didn't have anything to do with you appearing did it? We could all only hope for one of two things, you replace her OR you appear daily so she takes a powder & bolts her own show each time then too!
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She had to leave at 5:45 p.m. for an appearance. She was there for the first 45 minutes that I was in studio. - Roch
Pie, he was replayed over & over & over again on ESPN Baseball Tonight, last night. They mocked his lame attempt to get that ball in left center. Patience is a good thing, but it is fruitless in this case. Time & patience aren't going to help him suddenly have baseball instincts.
Roch,
weather.com is predicting rain tonight which means it will be a clear beautiful night. Bergesen line: 5 innings (Trembly has a quick hook with young pitchers) 8 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk, 2 so.
Am I the only one that wants Liz to stay? I mean we have a chance at history here people?!?!?! 67+ ERA is not easy. I would say keeping that for a season is greater than DiMaggio's hitting streak. Why not let him try to attain the unattainable?
I’m surprised to see all the 2 or 3 runs predictions. Maybe it’s just the eternal optimism in fans. If he could go 6 innings and give up 4 runs I would be pretty happy.
Iam predicting 6 innings 7 hits 1 walk and 3 runs.
But does it really matter. What you are doing by bringing Bergy up is giving your team a chance to win. It is Bergy's time to seize it or to learn on the job for a few months. He is learning nothing down in the minors at this point except risking injury. So if he does give up 6 runs in 3 1/3 innings...so be it. We need fresh blood on this team for two reasons. One to keep the morale up with the position players and two, what Andy put together is an embarassment to this club and to himself.
Be fair and give Bergensen the chance to succeed. If he falters, lets stick with him for a while to prove himself. The guy is gamer and fun to watch pitch. Same goes with Hernandez and Tillman.
But Eaton, Simon, Liz, Hendrickson, Penn, Olso and Waters are not it. They are not major leauge caliber pitchers. That much we know for sure. So everyone be fair and give the kid a shot. We forced Andrew's hand and it is obvious he is feeling the pressure!
roch
any update on wieters?
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Yes, but I'm keeping it a secret. OK, seriously, I'll ask when I get to the ballpark today. - Roch
To Jack: I think you meant cavalry v. calvary. . .big difference.
5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K
However, here's hoping for a Chris Waters-esque debut!
Five complete innings one run 7 hits three walk four K one looking. I will be there cheering his butt on.
I wish O's the bring up another Rookie pitcher a week later then bring Rich Hill back in the picture when ready. I have no problem watching a young pitcher win or lose. The problem I have is watching a old fart walk batter after batter and getting hammer .O's have two SP that its ,the other three are WANT BE. Its also time for Nolan Reimold and Lou Montanez!!!!!! BYE Felix Pie and Ryan Freel
Brummie_oriole said:
Rich D: You told me to go crawl under a rock? You can't crawl or sit under a rock bro unless you are an earthworm or bug.
I think he was implying that you are a slug. He might be on to something.
Why giving up on Felix Pie after 13 games is the auspice of true baseball idiots...
He was statistically just as good a minor league player as Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, including plate discipline and run production.
After only 13 games this year Pie is hitting .147, with .216 OBP and slugging .235. And it's not pretty in the field, either. He's playing as if every at bat will determine whether he plays again... thanks to the Cubs for screwing with this guy's head. Pretty tough, right...
After 34 games in 2006 Markakis was hitting .198, with .274 OBP and slugging .326. Keep in mind he was also lost in left and center fields. It wasn't until Jay Gibbons got hurt that he found a home in the field. Certain armchair GMs commenting on the former "Roch Around the Clock" had given up on Markakis, saying he didn't belong in the minor leagues. Boy, I wish we had followed their advice.
After 38 games in 2008 Jones was hitting .223, with .271 OBP and slugging .362. He too was pretty awful in center field and if you recall he couldn't hit the cutoff man to save his life. More armchair GMs talking about what a failure the Bedard trade was, etc., etc. Once again, the O's would be in such better shape had they given up on Jones too, right?
Now, we have a player in Pie who is remarkably similar to to Markakis and Jones. He's even the same height and no doubt will pack on a few pounds this offseason. He seems to be coachable and plays hard. He's predictably having early struggles at the plate and in the field, just like Markakis and Jones. He has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. And yet the majority of the people posting here don't seem to have the ability to learn from history. One of the worst human tendencies is to form opinions weighting recent events, ie last night's game, over everything that has come before in a balanced way.
It's LOL sad that some of the folks posting here criticize O's management for not having a plan, then in the next sentence assault them for sticking to their plan.
Just because you're fed up with however many endless seasons of losing doesn't give you license to be stupid and/or hateful. At least put some thought into your post, people!!
Will be fun to watch tonight.
Line:
6 IP 3 ER 6 H 4 K 2 BB
O's Win 8-4
No...
Wait for it....
Hitter
Roch:
I know Andy's plan is still in effect and I agree with it, but the way the bottom order of hitters are not hitting, it may be time to make some moves before the "players" fall farther into the "losing mold".
With Freel hurt, Mora out, Pie not coming anywhere near his projected bio, I feel it's time to bring up some hitter to help add some punch. Unfortunately, for us to have any sense of competition, we can't afford to lose anyone. The same thing happened last year when Mora went down. The team struggled. I hope Lou comes up to replace Freel and Nolan isn't far behind. I'm getting a little tired of hearing about Pie and him changing positions. He played Ortiz's fly like a person who is confused and that is not to say his ability to swing the bat. The Crow maybe working with him constantly but it seems to leave his mind once in the box. He's swinging from his back foot trying to hit the ball out of the park. He should be using his speed and hitting line drives and grounders. If they're afriad of him being claimed I don't think they should worry. He hasn't shown any of his supposed 5 tools. Plus, we got help in Lou and Nolan.
JO
Do we have to call him Bergy?
The fact that Bergesen hasn't been hit with an injury or sudden illness in the last 24 hours is encouraging. I'm glad he's not making his debut at Fenway.
It could go either way for him. Storm Davis, Ben McDonald and Mike Mussina did pretty well in their first starts while John Maine seemed to get knocked around a bit.
Here is my gut prediction:
Bergesen with go 5.1 2 ER, 6 Hits 4 K 2 BB, the defense will give up 3 unearned and he will be losing when he leaves 5 White Sox and 4 Orioles. This would also depend on who the O's put on the field. Huff needs to play third so we have someone who can field the position. Yesterday Andino failed to cover third on a fly ball to left. We had two shortstops out for the cutoff. Fortunately the pitcher hustled over to cover.
Little things mean a lot when you are trying to pick up your pitching.
Jaime Walker gives up at least 1 HR and Luke Scott will launch one onto Eutaw Street. It may or may not be the game winner. Just a prediction.
I'm with those who are ready to forgive Bergeson if he isn't "lights out" tonight. The pressure is definitely on the guy.
Jack said:
"What will you get from Bergensen.....
A legitimate chance to win the game."
I'm amazed that Jack--or "Jacqueline"--is managing to bust on Andy "Andrew" McPhail even over this. I'm looking over Hendrickson's and Eaton's last starts, and I see legitimate chances to win those games. Those guys were better than Guthrie blowing a 7-run lead on Friday night... I fail to see how Guthrie on Friday night was any more of a "legitimate chance to win".
Can't figure out whether to call Jack "Jacqueline" or "Joke"....
Roch,
Its almost to the point were Zaun could be or should be considered the worst starting catcher in baseball and for those who say he "helps" the pitching, please see our ERA.
It's Wieters time. When do the Orioles say enough is enough, it’s to embarrassing to run Zaun out 5 days a week. I hope Wieters will hit at least hit .200 ....Zaun's not in a slump; he's a back up at best and maybe done.
Alex
you would hope 3 runs or less pitching into the 7th. but even if he has a bad game give him a chance. he might have potential to be a good major league pitcher. eaton and hendrickson have shown in their recent history they are not quality starters so there is no present or future with them.
I'm all for giving young players time to devolop, I know you have to be patient. That being said, I watched Adam Jones last year, and he did have his struggles, but you could see the talent. Most of his struggles were at the plate, not in the field. Pie doesn't look anything like Jones did last year. He has no glue in LF, I know its a little different than CF, but come on, its still the outfield. That was suppose to be his strong suit. I still think he would clear waviers, sent him down, let him learn at AAA. If he doesn't clear, oh well, we have options there. I still think Reimold is the furture in LF.
Hope Bergeson does well tonite, but I don't see Dave lrtting him go more than 5innings, I'd say: 5IP, 7 hits, 4 runs 2 BB 4K's 85 pitches 58 strikes. O's turn 3DP's behind him. He give up 1 HR.
O's win 6-4
The line will look more like:
4 1/3 7 Hits, 6 ER (3 on a homer by Thome), 2BB's and 1K.
However, Bergesen is a fine substitute for the Simon injury.
Overall the Orioles lose 9-5 with Zaun hitting a 2 run homer and L. Scott hits a solo shot.
Very excited about Bergy coming up. A clarification question to manage my expectations: Is Bergy considered part of the cavalry, or is he an advance scout? I know Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta are cavalry.
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That was never really made clear. - Roch
6 innings 2 runs kinda like how Zimmermann pitched for the Nationals last night.
No one has mentioned the Chicago White Sox. They just got through destroying Tampa Bay. This ia a very hot team. Hope Bergy is up to the challenge.
WOW great prediction :)