Bill James' projections for 2010
The Yankees spent $423.5 million on three free agents and won a World Series. Shock the world.
To be fair, they also have Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano. And they opened that door to the Asian market early enough that they could snag Hideki Matsui, who picked a good time to be named Series MVP with his future up in the air.
I'll submit today's question right here:
Would you want Matsui to be your designated hitter next season?
For the record, I predicted that the Yankees would win in six games, but I also thought Rivera would be named MVP. He wouldn't have been a bad choice, but Matsui's numbers were sick.
You can rip on Mark Teixeira for snubbing the Orioles, but it's hard to argue with his choice when he got to play for his favorite team, make an obscene amount of money doing it, and win a World Series in his first season. That's probably how it all played out in his head last winter.
I guess Joe Girardi is a great manager because he won a World Series, but the only way he could have screwed this up is if he lost his pencil while filling out his lineup card.
Meanwhile, Bill James Handbook 2010 projects a big season from Nolan Reimold: A .292 average, 29 homers, 84 RBIs and an .898 OPS.
He also projects Matt Wieters to hit .311 with 20 homers, 92 RBIs and an .865 OPS, Nick Markakis to hit .300 with 21 homers, 103 RBIs, 101 runs scored and an .855 OPS, Adam Jones to hit .284 with 22 homers, 83 RBIs and an .804 OPS, and Brian Roberts to hit .281 with 12 homers, 65 RBIs and 103 runs scored.
James projects that Brad Bergesen will go 10-9 with a 4.18 ERA, and Jeremy Guthrie will go 12-12 with a 4.38 ERA.
"In any season, the vast majority of players play in a manner that seems a natural extension of what they had done before," James writes. "When that happens, our projection should be reasonably accurate."
I'll take the "over" on Bergesen's win total.
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Categories (click for archive)Roch Kubatko | Roch Kubatko Orioles |
Have you ever compared James' past projections with the player's actual stats for the year?
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Nope. Would be interesting to crosscheck and see how he did. - Roch
Seeing Teixeira raise the World Series trophy was brutal; however, considering he signed an 8 year deal with the Yanks, I guess it's best to get it over and done with. Hopefully, that'll be the last he wins. Not that that's much of a consolation.
As for Bergesen, are you hearing anything about his road to recovery, Roch? It worries me that last I heard he was still unable to run...
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I reported a few weeks ago that he was scheduled to start a running program, probably right about now. He'll be full-go by spring training. No worries. - Roch
I don't blame Teixeira for taking more money to play for a winner that also happened to be his favorite team. Only an idiot WOULDN'T do that. The thing I blame Teixeira for is the whole "it's no secret I was a diehard Orioles fan growing up" or whatever the quote was a couple of years back. The Yankee fan thing didn't pop up until after he signed the contract. So either he was full of it before or he's full of it now, but either way, it seems pretty disingenuous. If he had said, "look, I'm an Orioles fan, but the Yankees are a better situation for me right now" I don't know how anyone could have disputed that in a reasonable way.
In happier news the Orioles should have a pretty good lineup if the James projections are accurate, so we've got that going for us.
Roch, Buster Olney said on Mike & Mike this morning that there are going to be a lot of arbitration eligible players non-tendered because so many teams are struggling financially. Is that a concern for the Orioles? Or on the flip side, do you know if they are monitoring that situation with other teams? That could end up being a good supplement to a bad free agent class.
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Not sure why that would be a concern of the Orioles. They'll monitor all the non-tenders, as usual. Plus minor league free agents, etc. - Roch
I like those projections from James, and I agree Bergy's wins should be higher.
I'd love to see Matsui as DH for the O's. Unless Luke Scott becomes our full-time 1b though, I think he'd have to be traded before that would happen. And I think we'd still need a power bat from the right side (at 3rd/1st), especially since we'd have a roster position taken up by a player who will not perform on defense, unlike Scott who can play multiple positions.
Though it may seem like sour grapes, I'd like to point out that the Yankees won the Series DESPITE the performance of overpaid Burnett and Tex in the postseason, not because of them. Had not CC or their previous FAs, long-time players performed well, they could potentially have lost because Burnett and Tex, except for Tex's D, stunk it up in the postseason. Enough of that -- I agree that any person, given Tex's personal inclinations, would have jumped at the opportunity he was given. As for his undeniably contradictory comments over previous seasons, how would you all answer, being polite (mostly), if someone asked you directly if you wanted to play for your "home team" or not, knowing it would be printed/played? I doubt even a surly star like Albert Belle would say "hell no, I only want to play for the Yankees." People like to point out how in Asian cultures, a yes does not always mean yes; I'd argue that's the case here too, in certain contexts. Lastly, if you're looking for consistency in people, much less in people who live in the spotlight, you are looking in the wrong place. Examine yourself, and see if you live up to that ideal. I certainly don't. That said - (Congrats to but) F THE YANKEES!
Disappointed to see the Yankees buy another title. I checked the game in the 3rd inning and never went back. Knew then it was over. Now we will have to endure a weeks worth of highlights on the Yankee Network -- sorry ESPN.
As for your question. Yes, I would like Matsui as our DH next season. He is a good hitter with good power. The question is how much money will he expect? Didn't he make something like $13 million this year. He is not worth that type of money.
And now that he won the World Series MVP, the Yankees may want (or almost have to) bring him back.
But if we could get him for 2-years for $8 million a year or less, then yes, we should sign him.
The James stuff is nice, but I'm sure that like the Psychic Friends network, it wrong as much as it is right. Based on the 2007 Rich Hill, I'm guessing James saw big things in 2008, not being traded for a bucket of balls. Likewise the Milton Bradley meltdown in 2009 or Guthrie, Mora, or even Ty "I Dont Need to Take No Stinkin Pitches" Wigginton (what happened to the guy that murdered lefties?).
BTW, Roch, what is he projecting for Luke Scott? What about Dye, Atkins, Glaus and other guys we've supposedly be linked to by "unnamed sources".
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I don't have the handbook, only an e-mail that listed the players I wrote about. - Roch
I love those offensive projections. Stick Matsui at 1st and Abreu at DH and you may have something. At least two patient hitters to an overly aggressive line up. And I'll take the over on Bergy as well. I'll also take that from guthrie and run!
No to Matsui for DH. With Luke Scott around, we don't need another bad outfielder to take up a roster spot as a DH only type player. I am for trying to get JJ Hardy and Mat Gamel from Milwaukee for ss & third base, try to add a starter to the rotation and let the rest of the kids develop.
I'm not sure the Yankees won the World Series so much as the Curse of Pat Burrell lost the Series for the Phillies.
Does Bill James even do these anymore or is other sabermetricians using his name? I'm pretty sure he works for the BoSox now (boo) and, therefore, wouldn't be publishing his work.
@DMG
You responded to something I said in Roch's last post...I should've been more specific, i think the next two years position players in the free agent market will be terrible, especially at the Orioles positions of need, Mauer being a free agent is pretty much pointless to the Orioles...but nonetheless that was mistake
No I don't want Matsui he is the exact type of free agent the Orioles would have signed the previous 10 years before Andy
P.S
I can actually spell but for some reason on this blog I can't, when I read my post, i think i must come across like an idiot, i'm not an idiot either
I'd be very happy with Matsui as my DH. He's a lot less streaky than Scott, so the production would be both a little better and a lot more consistent. He should only be in the field on rare occasions, and that's fine. By all accounts, Matsui is a good guy, a good teammate, and a hard worker. I'd like to see some more of that hard work ethic on the Orioles. Plus, we tapped into the Asian market with Koji, so Matsui would have a teammate who could speak the language and share experiences. I think he would be a good fit for the team.
About the Yanks winning the Series: not really a surprise. They were loaded this year. More to the point, though, it looked like they had fun this year. In the past, their megabucks teams were like a collection of businessmen who got together for three-hour meetings in the evening. This year, they were a lot looser, and I think Sabathia played a big part in that. A pox on Mark Teixiera, though. I don't buy that Yankee and Mattingly worship for a second. I respect the fact that he made the best business decision for himself and his family, and I'd have no problem with him at all if he just said that. Instead, we got the very insincere-sounding Yankee paeans. I realize he was never coming here, but at least be up front about your reasons for choosing the big bucks in the Bronx.
I cannot believe that Jerry Hairston won a World Series...we made the right move at 2nd base all those years ago and he still comes out on top.
Billy Martin could have coached the Yankees to a World Series title this year. And I'm not talking about the 1977 Billy Martin. I'm talking about the "Weekend at Bernie's" Billy Martin of today.
Let's not forget Pettitte's use of HGH and the pink lip's "Loosey Goosey" era.
I'm sure that helped a *little* bit.
The projections from the Bill James Handbook (formerly the Bill James Baseball Abstract) are usually pretty good for hitters. He admits (and has done so for the 25+ years the book has been published) that pitchers are ridiculously hard to project, as they are in general less consistent and more at the mercy of factors they cannot control, such as umpiring, fielding, and relief pitchers.
James built the computer algorithms that produced the original projections, and people who work for him have fine tuned them over the years. However, if his name is on the book, be assured that he still has oversight. For a second opinion on projections, I heartily recommend the Baseball Prospectus. Years ago I played in a Strat-o-Matic league with a few of the authors of the book, and they were light years ahead of the rest of us in terms of mathematizing baseball. They will also tell you that pitching is hard to predict, and I don't think anyone projects relievers, for the same reason that it is hard to go out and "build" a bullpen in the free agent market. Consistently good relief pitchers are HOF candidates, that's how rare they are.
Dateline: Wednesday, November 5, 2014
The Yankees have just won their third World Series in five years. Thankfully the Red Sox and Dodgers were somehow able to steal one apiece, even on a shoestring $120 million budget.
Meanwhile in Baltimore, the Orioles came within five games of the equivalent of their own World Series, that is, not having a losing record. If only Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz' season had ended so early with an injury. Of course, the Orioles needed to get used to playing without these two, as they will be playing elsewhere next year.
Thanks to the Yankees and Red Sox fans who fill up Camden Yards 18 times a year, good TV ratings when the Yanks and Sox are on, and revenue sharing that comes the Orioles' way from New York, the Orioles made plenty of money to stay in business. This despite averaging 5,684 fans per game and not being able to give away advertising time on TV broadcasts.
Stalwart reporter Roch Kubatko has gotten creative and saved his blog by going back to his roots... blogging on Anne Arundel County high school sports.
The Orioles, realizing there was no need to lease a 45,000 seat stadium for 5,000 fans, will now play their games at Towson University. The stadium authority hopes to begin a weekly Friday night monster truck/demolition derby series on the field of Camden Yards to offset the loss of funds.
Future hall of famer and two time Super Bowl champion Joe Flacco said he was saddened to see what had been such an important icon of the city mired in such irrelevance, but that a certain football team was proud to represent the city on the national stage.
Some of Bill James projections compared to the actual stats of 2009...
For a guy that is trying to predict stats for individual players over entire baseball season he is pretty accurate...though as you will see he was way off on Aubrey Huff...
G AB PA H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB IBB SO HBP SF SH GDP SB CS AVG
Adam Jones
Projection
150 480 134 90 24 5 15 71 65 30 108 12 5 .279
Season
119 473 519 131 87 22 3 19 83 70 36 3 93 7 3 0 13 10 4 .277
Nick Markakis
Projection
159 598 185 115 46 2 22 104 99 83 99 10 6 .309
Season
161 642 711 188 123 45 2 18 94 101 56 0 98 3 10 0 12 6 2 .293
Brian Roberts
Projection
156 623 176 118 44 4 10 100 58 79 99 36 12 .283
Season
159 632 717 179 106 56 1 16 110 79 74 3 112 2 8 1 7 30 7 .283
Aubrey Huff
Projection
149 533 151 93 33 2 23 72 83 48 81 3 2 .283
Season
150 536 597 129 83 30 1 15 59 85 51 7 87 5 5 0 15 0 6 .241
Luke Scott
Projection
142 476 130 71 31 3 25 69 79 57 98 3 2 .273
Season
128 449 506 116 64 26 1 25 61 77 55 5 104 1 1 0 4 0 0 .258
Ty Wigginton
Projection
140 520 143 87 30 1 25 69 77 44 97 5 4 .275
Season
122 410 436 112 82 19 0 11 44 41 23 1 57 2 1 0 16 1 2 .273
Felix Pie
Projection
143 498 138 95 26 5 12 70 59 33 94 19 10 .277
Season
101 252 281 67 45 10 3 9 38 29 24 1 58 0 3 2 6 1 3 .266
Matt Weiters
Projection
118 416 127 82 22 2 21 60 74 67 56 2 1 .305
Season
96 354 385 102 77 15 1 9 35 43 28 2 86 1 2 0 11 0 0 .288
Nolan Reimold
No Projection
I'm bummed big time that the Yankees won the World Series again (although glad Mike Mussina wasn't part of the team this year...and glad for Jerry Hairston)!
They did bring up a great core of players; however, something should be done about the free agents they sign. I don't think anything will be done to correct this problem w/the current Commissioner because he is so corrupt, but put Andy McPhail in there, a good honest guy, and he'll straighten that mess out and make it fair for everyone.
That would be nice if Bill James' predictions held up, but other than Bergeson, I wish he would have at least given more predictions on pitchers since that's how you win championships.
I'd love to have Matsui as a DH, but I can't imagine he would want to come here unless we overpaid him.
Solid projections from Mr. James (or whomever wrote the book, since he's working for the Red Sox). I will take the over on Wieters' home runs. I think Wieters will hit around 25 next year. I like the average, though!
I would personally love to see Matsui in an Orioles' uniform next year, but last night's game was probably the worst thing that could have happened to us. He was kind of flying under the radar until then. Now the Yankees may need to re-sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal. I personally would love to have him sign a 2 year, $18-$20m deal with us. He would do well as a lefty in Camden Yards. He also hits lefthanded pitching as well as he does righthanded pitching (.294 vs. lefties, .291 vs. righties in his career). He also hits for power at the same rate against both righties and lefties, so he would essentially be another righthanded hitter for us. He's a patient hitter, which is a very good thing, and it might be really good to add him to a team that already has Koji Uehara. I don't know if they are friends, or if they know each other, but that could be a consideration. Plus, it would be nice to steal a hitter away from the Yankees!
Dateline Baltimore: Yankee's win there 27th WORLD SERIES. Fans across the country are in a uproar with the current structure in baseball and are screaming that the yankee's bought the world series. Well quess what baseball in it's current structure is a BROKEN GAME and needs to be fixed.But until somebody has the ba--s to fix it you can't blame them for spending there money. Wasn't it nice to see everybody out on the field screaming like little kids , the closest the orioles will ever come to that is if there is a beaning and the entire team runs out on the field. Take a good look around baseball and see all the major contributions the asian's have made to the game. Seattle you have a future hall of fame player, yankee's you have a world series most valuable award winner,i could go on and on but i won't waste every bodies time.The orioles decided to test the asian market and what did we get a guy that was out of breath after 3 innings and that is if he didn't have to cover 1st base.The season is over now for all the orange kool aid drinkers and now the only thing that you have to look forward to is hanging your christmas stockings on the fireplace and hope your cult leader Andy fills them with some significant free agent signings.But i bet you have a better chance of getting a bag full of COAL and SWITCHES instead.
No to Matsui. We've got to get better against lefties. I wouldn't mind seeing Dye at DH.
No, Matsui would not be the same ball player in another line up. What would Roberts and Markakis do in a line up surrounded by ALL Stars? As far as Jeter,Posada,Pettitte and Mariano goes. Another team would not have been able to afford to keep them. That is why they are still with the Yankees. It is all about money no matter how you cut it. We as fans, are not that "stupid." Other than Yankees fans, we all know they finally bought one. It took them 9 years but the half a billion dollars they spent in the off season finally got them over the hump. Baseball is in trouble. A SALARY CAP NEEDS TO HAPPEN..............and soon.
Matsui- Nope
Guy from around Baltimore- Still hate him
Giraldi- an asterisk still needs applied because of the environment. Yes he has talent all around him, but up there every move is so critized. It is not like managing in Miami.
If those projections are correct I am not sure the O's need another bat, but I will take one anyway.
Bergesen- I hesitate about the over only because hitters will adjust next year. His improvement will be based on his adjustments to the hitters adjustments.
No, I don't want to go after Matsui even though he is a good hitter. Since he can pretty much only DH at this point, we'd lose a lot of roster flexibility. Matsui is someone you add when you already have all the other pieces for a championship team. Also, I think the offense will be fine with Wieters, Reimold, Markakis, Jones, Roberts, Scott, and Pie.
I think the biggest need is in the bullpen. We have a lot of question marks there. Can Albers and Ray return to their pre-injury form? Who will the closer be? Will Koji accept a role in the bullpen, and can he stay injury free? I'm optimistic about Mickolio, but he doesn't have a lot of major league innings.
The heart of the Yankees (Jeter, Posada, Rivera and Pettitte) won't be around much longer; age is creeping in.
I don't know the contract status of Chase Utley but I see the Yanks offering him another basket full of money to play 2B for them in the future. Anyone who would take Cano over Utley has to be an idiot.
How the h*** can Bill James make those ridiculous projections? It's the equivalent of someone saying Reimold will hit 162 HR's because he hit one on opening day. Statistics are for losers; or for people trying to sell a book and for those who have way too much time on their hands.
Why waste time asking if O's fans would like Matsui as DH? The question to ask is "do you think Matsui would be stupid enough to leave NY to come to Baltimore?" The only way you'll see Matsui in an Orioles uniform is when he's 42 years old and no one else wants him.
I guess if you eat your steroids and cheat, you too can get a big overblown contract, date hollywood celebrities and win a Ring too.
Mariano Rivera is the best closer in the history of MLB.
Hey Mike Mussina, how's that Ring?
PAUL.R said:
I'm not sure the Yankees won the World Series so much as the Curse of Pat Burrell lost the Series for the Phillies.
November 5, 2009 9:03 AM
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Actually it was the lifting of the Curse of the Moose that won it. Mercenery Mike Mussina left the O's to get a Ring; seven years, no Ring. He retires, Yanks get the Ring. Curse lifted.
ring #27 couldn't be more tainted
-- If Guthrie pitches next year the way he did in his last half-dozen starts, that win number is way low for him. Looked like a different pitcher. Bergeson will win more than that, too if he gets enough starts, and maybe a lot more.
-- We should be excited here -- look at the middle of the diamond. Young starting pitching across the board; Weiters at the plate; Roberts at 2B, a Gold Glove-caliber SS in Izturis; Jones in CF. Then there is Reimold/Scott in LF and one of the American League's assist leaders in RF in Markakis. Finding some corner infielders who can hit (Scott, I suppose could play 1B) and turn em loose, man. Would I like to have Matsui here? Oh, yeah. The guy's the ultimate professional hitter, but he'd only be a DH and that's a lot of cash for that spot.
-- I don't know what will constitute making progress -- 10 games better than this year? 15?, or perhaps a better monitor would be measuring just the road games, especially those against New York and Boston.
Bill James works as an advisor to the Red Sox but I don't think his sabermetrics projections work is bound by a non-compete clause. As ridiculous as Theo and the sox are, this isn't The Manhattan Project. James doesn't merely look at the last season of a Rich Hill type (to use the example cited before) and say, "hmmm, he had a good year, I bet he'll be even better next year" - that's what most of us do.. This is way oversimplifying but James looks at players with similar characteristics up to that point in their career and runs iterations to project the next season. And unless you're projecting a particularly good defense or amazing run support for Bergy next year, how could you "take the over" on 10 wins? Win totals are not indicative of a good season for a starter.
Now that the Series is over, the fun begins.
Rumor (Buster Olney) has it that Matzui is either a Yankee or heading back to Japan since they will pay him a ton to come home a hero. Besides, he is limited to DH since his legs are shot. I'd rather have more versatility on the roster, like a Troy Glaus who can play the field, though no Gold Glover, and hits righty. Trade for Uggla(preferrably) or sign Atkins for 3rd and you have an improved lineup, with more power thoughout except for Izturis.
Also, there could be more desirable players than Matzui that get released to avoid arbitration but, alas, they figure to go elsewhere. Either more money or not being a proven winner will keep the O's from getting anyone significant. The cavalry has to prove that the old, losing era is gone before FAs will sign here, short of overpaying them and then regretting it.
Given the disparity in payrolls, the Yankees winning the WS is the equivalent of Cozmo Kramer beating up 8 yr olds in karate class.
How classy for Matsui to have a WS MVP sitting on the mantle next to his prized porn collection. It really is charming. No way to him as an O, not interested. Get a life, get out Yankee.
I love James' prediction, if he's correct we may finish .500. I dont see Reimold hitting that many bombs though.
Congrats to the YANKEES!!! 27 time champions!!!
Congrats to their first baseman! He chose wisely, didn't he!
At least you guys have a nice stadium.
I was watching a bit of the WS at a local restaurant's bar last night, waiting for a table. The bartender walked by & saw Matsui on the screen. He then told me that Matsui supposedly has the largest collection of porn in the ML's according to those that know such tidbits. He apparently is more of a freak than StrayRoid. I asked him how he knew that & he said he saw a TV show (I can't recall the show) & it was exposed then.
Somehow I pictured Matsui running around his hotel room like those Japanese businessmen in Tom Hanks movie ...Bachelor Party.
Matsui the porn king, Jeter the serial womanizer, StrayRoid the freak who can't stay away from strip clubs or strippers... what a great bunch they have in NY huh?
Not only did the Yankees win the World Series last night, but they did it the way they had done it all season. There wasn’t 50 pitching changes, or a bunch of sac bunts and small ball. The pitching was sound, and the lineup bludgeoned Phillie pitching.
#27 is now in the books, and all the second guessing goes out the window. Should Burnett have pitched on 3 days rest? Nobody cares. Should Girardi have used his bullpen different? There is one thing in sports that solves all problems, and Hal Steinbrenner is hoisting it up.
Speaking of Steinbrenners, it’s will be nice to send George off to be worm food with another ring I have said it a million times, there is no better thing as a fan than to have an owner that is willing to do whatever it takes to win. The fact is without Mark Teixeira, the Yankees don’t win the World Series. But the team did was necessary to acquire him (instead of cheaping out and signing useless, past their prime,like some other organization that thinks they are smarter than everyone else.)
Cue the comments about how much money the Yankees spent – but just remember the only difference between the Yankees and the other 10 or so franchises with over $100 million payrolls is a dedicated owner and management that knows how to build a champion. I hope all the financially responsible nickel and dime-ing consoled the rest of the league while they watched from their couches at home.
So, Yankee fans – enjoy it. Then it’s time to lock up #28.
Teixeira is a worm,a total worm.
As for James, wow, those offensive projections are awfully attractive. But really, how does he have a clue as to how Wieters will perform?
I don't buy into what Bill James says very often because he fails to take into account random and freak occurances like injuries. If those stats turn out to be correct, we could be looking at 82 wins next year. Maybe.
No way the Orioles sign Matsui. His stats are more a product of the Yankee lineup. He'd be hitting .230 with 15 homeruns and 40 RBIs here. Plus his postseason just pushed his value beyond what his heallthy for the profit/loss.
I'd better win a WS too if I spent $1.6billion in 8 yrs.
(I know I know...if a girl is spending that kind of money on men...oh nevermind)
In happier news...
102 days til pitchers and catchers report!
You know its time to get off texiera's back. Who in the world would pass up an opportunity to make more money???? It happen all the time in business or whatever type of work that you do. I dont think it would of been a good signing for the Orioles, but i do believe if he was a free agent next year that the Orioles would be a MAJOR player and possibly land Texiera. All the Orioles need to do is have a good season next that shows more promise for the future and not break down after the all start break and i belive they will attract some free agents for long term deals. The orioles have to be smart this offseason and not trade away what they have worked the past two seasons to accomplish. Matsui would be a good dh in camden yards. I also think that if the pitching comes around a little they will be atleast a 500 team and i say if it comes around next year. I know the front office wants to nuture these young pitches, but i believe that major league experience is the only thing that will make them better!
Is anyone else tired of seeing the 7th inning stretch song at Yankee stadium? It just seems like the networks want to rub your face in it and I don't recall seeing them stick around other stadiums during the 7th inning stretch. Maybe it is just me (and while I'm not a Yankee fan I don't really hate them, just sick of the lopsided budgets).
Matsui seems like a quiet leader type. I'm not sure why he would want to come to the Orioles unless he had no other choices and he thought they were close to winning.
Previous Yankees WS win: 2000
Mussina signed in 2001, retired after 2008.
Yankees win WS in 2009.
It was the curse of the Moose after all!
MLB has the year in review awards (mlb.com)
Despite the record there ARE some Orioles on there. Any chance we can get the readers here to vote for our guys? I wanted to vote for Mora... but I feel obligated to vote for Jones.
I feel Mora is better defensively, but Jones is still on the team... what to do...
Roch,
I guess it really was the Curse of the Moose, we didn't win a WS with him
and neither did the MFY's. At least I can say that I have something in common with Mussina. I have the same amount of WS rings as he does. (Kinda like Cliff Claven's Jeopardy answer: "Who are three people who have never been in my kitchen?").
Josh said:
Does Bill James even do these anymore or is other sabermetricians using his name? I'm pretty sure he works for the BoSox now (boo) and, therefore, wouldn't be publishing his work.
Josh,
Bill James writes everything published over his name. Why are you so confident that he wouldn't be responsible for the work purported to be done by him.
You might find it interesting to look into the length and breadth of his research and writing - he is a prodigious author: http://www.billjamesonline.net/Default.aspx Subscription fee - $3.00/month.
Would like to have Matsui only if either Scott or Markakis is traded.
Matsui is a good DH but he gets hurt a lot.I know people wont agree with me but Huff could do just as much as matsui becasue matsui gets hurt a lot.
Hey Roch! It has been awhile... I'm sorry! Please don't send me to detention. I've been insanely busy I've almost forgotten to eat at least once a day. Anyways, as the season officially comes to a close I just wanted to stop in!
I watched the game with my dad last night but since he fell asleep around the 4th innning I caught up on this seasons Curb Your Enthusiasm. Boy am I glad I switched. I knew the Yankees were going to win it but I didn't want to ruin my night watching that @$$ Girardi act like he's a good manager. Billy Ripken could manage the Yankee's to a WS win.
Whatever! I hate the Yanks, always have, always will. I'm ready for the O's to come back in the spring. I miss them already.
PS: I just got (from the hubby) a signed and framed Kevin Millar as an Oriole picture for our anniversary and I CRIED! I CRIED ROCH! I was so happy. I miss MILL-AH!
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Welcome back! I'll call off the search party. But we're still missing Craig...with...dots. - Roch
Jennifer said:
Hey Roch! It has been awhile... I'm sorry! Please don't send me to detention. I've been insanely busy I've almost forgotten to eat at least once a day. Anyways, as the season officially comes to a close I just wanted to stop in!
I watched the game with my dad last night but since he fell asleep around the 4th innning I caught up on this seasons Curb Your Enthusiasm. Boy am I glad I switched. I knew the Yankees were going to win it but I didn't want to ruin my night watching that @$$ Girardi act like he's a good manager. Billy Ripken could manage the Yankee's to a WS win.
Whatever! I hate the Yanks, always have, always will. I'm ready for the O's to come back in the spring. I miss them already.
PS: I just got (from the hubby) a signed and framed Kevin Millar as an Oriole picture for our anniversary and I CRIED! I CRIED ROCH! I was so happy. I miss MILL-AH!
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Welcome back! I'll call off the search party. But we're still missing Craig...with...dots. - Roch
November 5, 2009 12:31 PM
WB Jennifer. You are a rare woman indeed. I suppose you will absolutely lose it when you get that new toaster & vacuum cleaner for Xmas huh? :-)
All is right with the world again - Jennifer is back!
Welcome back! I think I speak for some other folks when I ask, were you married before on that "other" website? Inquiring minds want to know. If not, congratulations! That also explains where you've been this season.
I miss Kevin Mill-ah too. As a ballplayer, though, we can do a little better. As a person, no way!
Tom McAllister(used to be T-mac)
I have to say, the trophy presentations in American sports are LAME and ANTI-CLIMATIC.
For once, the NHL tops all other sports in how they award the trophy.
Why do I want to hear Buddy give a speech and hand the trophy to some corporate owner?
This must be overhauled right away. My "plan": The PA calls the name of each player on the victorious team, from rookies to veterans to longest tenured players on the team to the captain being called last. Each player receives some medal and a handshake from Selig. As they call the names of each player, the fans cheer louder and louder.
Since the captain is the last to receive a medal, Selig would than hand the trophy to the player, in this case Jeter. Jeter hoists the trophy into the air as confeti bombs and fireworks go off everywhere while all the players jump for joy.
Example
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQbrSzZsC7g&feature=related
Things get a bit dusty around the Brummie household everytime I see this video.
Am I the only one that thinks it's kinda sad there are some Yankee "fans" talking trash on this blog?
I really hope they're just some trolls having fun, because if not, jumping on a board to talk trash to a last place team is the textbook definition of "pathetic," IMO.
I thought blancioni was the one who said he was cancelling season tickets, quiting the blog, jumping off a bridge, would never be heard of again...
And now the son of a gun is trying to cancel Christmas.
As Easterbrook would write, just another example of Christmas creep. Oh yeah, the pun is intended Bob.
I personally never thought Tex made the wrong choice. I will never forgive him, however, for saying that playing for the Orioles "would be a dream come true" and then using us to get more money before signing with our biggest rival. To top it off, he suddenly LOVES the Yankees. He's a two-faced......I'd better stop before I get into trouble.
I totally agree with you Mike G - last night I was thinking "How is it possible that Jerry Hairston, Jr. is winning a world series?" - that's just sad. Roberts is obviously the superior player; too bad that doesn't equal a championship.
The yanks winning shows us everything that's wrong with baseball right now:
1) cheaters can, and do, prosper
2) championships can be, and are, bought
3) instant replay, for more than just home run calls, needs to be implemented ASAP
And to answer your question Roch: no way do I want Matsui as the O's DH next year.
The Yankees win the World Series and less than 24 hours later, there's more than ONE Yankee fan on an ORIOLES BLOG ?????
This is yet another prime example of how pathetic NY fans are. Win a championship then go "brag" about it on another teams blog site???
SERIOUSLY??????
SAD. SAD INDEED.
Bonzi said:
~~I don't blame Teixeira for taking more money to play for a winner that also happened to be his favorite team. Only an idiot WOULDN'T do that. The thing I blame Teixeira for is the whole "it's no secret I was a diehard Orioles fan growing up" or whatever the quote was a couple of years back. The Yankee fan thing didn't pop up until after he signed the contract.~~
You are not correct. Not only did he say way before signing that he was a Don Mattingly fan growing up and wore a Yankees cap to Orioles games, I posted as much here several times in the hoopla prior to his signing. I think what he said was that he would love to play for the Orioles. As I also said, for 180 million, I am sure he would love to play in Baghdad or Kabul. For that kind of money I bet he could learn to play hide the soap in a cell somewhere.
blancione said:
~~Dateline Baltimore: Yankee's win there 27th WORLD SERIES.~~
actually this news came out of NY where the game was played, not Baltimore.
~~Fans across the country are in a uproar with the current structure in baseball and are screaming that the yankee's bought the world series.~~
funny, I have my windows open and dont hear any screaming.
~~Well quess what baseball in it's current structure is a BROKEN GAME and needs to be fixed.~~
Actually baseball in its current state is a successful business. BUt that doesnt fit with your gloomy outlook and need to rant and rave so you wouldnt see this.
~~But until somebody has the ba--s to fix it you can't blame them for spending there money.~~
Yeah, you are big on balls. Making physical threats on blogs is so ballsy
~~Wasn't it nice to see everybody out on the field screaming like little kids ,~~
yes it was. It almost took the bad taste of the negative nellies like you who take such pleasure in the woes of the Orioles away . . . almost
~~the closest the orioles will ever come to that is if there is a beaning and the entire team runs out on the field.~~
only you could think a beaning would equate to a celebration.
~~Take a good look around baseball and see all the major contributions the asian's have made to the game. Seattle you have a future hall of fame player, yankee's you have a world series most valuable award winner,i could go on and on but i won't waste every bodies time.~~
Too late. 2.8% of the players were asian in 2008 (http://web.bus.ucf.edu/documents/sport/2008_rgrc_major_league_baseball.pdf). SO much for "on and on"
~~The orioles decided to test the asian market and what did we get a guy that was out of breath after 3 innings and that is if he didn't have to cover 1st base.~~
They did not decide to "test the asian market'. They decided to boost spending and scouting there as part of a long time overhaul of their international player scouting and acquisition. Their first dip in the market was our best starter until injured and is still seen as a likely plus in the bullpen. Other than taking more smarmy jabs at the team you love to hate, what was your point? That since we didnt find a Babe Ruth on our first signing we should stop trying?
~~The season is over now for all the orange kool aid drinkers~~
Breaking news. The season is also over for you dealers of hate and bile. and since you took more pleasure from the O's failures than the rest of us took from their few high spots, I would say it comes as a greater blow to you . . . which explains why you dont mind being seen as a liar and going back on your word to leave this site.
~~and now the only thing that you have to look forward to is hanging your christmas stockings on the fireplace and hope your cult leader Andy fills them with some significant free agent signings.But i bet you have a better chance of getting a bag full of COAL and SWITCHES instead.~~
Our Xmas is already ruined because you went back on your word to leave us in peace. Coal and swit4ches would be a pleasant gift if it came with your promised absence.
"That's probably how it all played out in his head last winter." Do you think he envisioned choking with a .593 postseason OPS. Although he got his ring, I am glad he had little to do with it.
My2Cents said:
" ... How the h*** can Bill James make those ridiculous projections? It's the equivalent of someone saying Reimold will hit 162 HR's because he hit one on opening day. Statistics are for losers; or for people trying to sell a book and for those who have way too much time on their hands ... ."
My2Cents,
Your post is in the running for the most stupid piece of drivel to appear on this, or any other blog - makes me want to reconsider my position on summary censorship.
It would be a good thing for the human race in general, and the viability of the United States in the 22nd century in particular, if you were denied procreation rights.
Another Ryan said:
"... Win totals are not indicative of a good season for a starter."
A.Ryan,
I get your point about more accurate ways to measure a pitcher's value to his team; but, there cannot be too much doubt that a 20-game winner had a successful year.
I have yet to meet a Yankees fan who is apologetic about their situation. They typically believe that any team can do what they did - build up their market to a point where it can compete with the likes of NY. Heck, NY has TWO teams (I hear that one a lot). They just don't get it, though. They have the largest people base to draw from in the country (even with two teams). They do a great job of marketing - I will give them that, and they have done a good job of partnering with other business entities (The Nets, for one) and creating the YES network. I thought the Orioles would begin to have that same situation with MASN, but it's very difficult when the Nationals and Orioles win as many games as the Yankees do - combined.
It's really going to be sick watching the Yankees go out and sign John Lackey or Ben Sheets and then sign Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Our true hope as Orioles fans is that with every passing year, guys like Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera get a year older. One step closer to retirement. Thank goodness!
The Old Guard of Rivera, Jeter and Posada mixed with a New Regime of Tex, CC, and Burnett earns the New York Yankees their 27th World Series Title on November 4, 2009. Their first title in 9 long years.
I know that sounds obnoxious to O's fans, and Indians fans and the like.
The Greatest Franchise in Sports is held to a higher standard, and the great expectations of New York City were met last night.
In classic Yankee fashion, Andy Pettitte toed the rubber and tossed yet another playoff W, giving him 18 in his career and further extending his record as winningest pitcher in postseason history. Mr. Crutch Hideki Matsui crinched the game 6 victory all by himself, driving in 6 runs and in the process earning him and his translator a World Series MVP.
And the Greatest of All Time Mariano Rivera locked down the final 5 outs to secure the title.
5 Rings in total for the only remaining players from the 1996 squad – Jeter, Posada, Rivera and Pettitte – and the first World Series title for Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez and the newest members of the Bombers, Sabathia, Teixeira and Burnett. Hopefully for the young’ns, Cano, Cabrera, Hughes, and Joba, this is the first of many to come.
This one is for George.
Girardi better change his number to 28. #27 is finally home
I'm fine with Teixeira winning a world series now... so long as for the remainder of his playing days he doesn't get to win another one and the Orioles go on to win two or three! That and I would like for him to contract a pretty bad case of fungal jock itch, nothing major.
I like the predictions for our batting order next year... now let's just hope the young pitching can hold its own. I WANT a winning season! And I want to go at least .500 against our division. I've already started my rough draft on my letter to Santa.
I think projections for wins and RBIs are always a crapshoot. Wins, in particular, are only slightly correlated with how good a pitcher is - things like run support (for starters) and situation (for relievers) have too much of an effect on that statistic. Similarly, RBIs also depend on luck (namely, how well the hitters in front of you get on base) and where you bat in the order. If Bergesen gets good run support, he'll get more wins. If he gets worse run support, he'll get fewer wins.
Would I like to see Matsui DHing? Sure, if we trade Luke Scott. We have a couple of left-handed guys who deserve a chance to play 1B ahead of Scott (namely, Michael Aubrey and Rhyne Hughes), and before the end of the year, we might need to open a space up for Brandon Snyder. With Riemold / Pie in the LF picture, I just don't see enough room for Scott and Matsui to be in the same team. I don't think we should trade Scott just to acquire Matsui - but if we happen to get a good offer for Scott, Matsui would be a great signing to replace his bat.
If we do only 1 thing this offseason, it should be to sign a third baseman stopgap. Next on the priority list would be finding some cheap low-risk high-reward bullpen pieces (no thanks on Wagner / Putz / etc.). Only then would I start worrying about 1B/DH/LF.
Lucky Horseshoe: I wasn't going to jump in today as I was in mourning, but that beatdown of Lance was just too funny, it really lifted my spirits, thanks.
REUTERS NEWS SERVICE ... is reporting that Robert "Battling Bob" Lancione, for the second time in less than two weeks, has broken his pledge to retire from posting about the Baltimore Orioles on internet blogs that cater to baseball fans.
Mr. Lancione was apparently so fervent about his opposition to retaining Dave Trembley as manager of the Orioles that -- to underscore the symbolic importance of dismissing Trembley -- he threatened to deprive his audience the pleasure of reading his posts that were highly valued for their insights and flawless writing style.
However, for reasons known only to Mr. Lancione, he has once again broken his solemn pledge.
REUTERS has discovered the following posts, which reference Mr. Lancione’s first pledge and its subsequent violation and a restatement of the pledge, which was shattered this morning.
Hey blancione, I'll take the moneyline that you don't follow through on your promises to go away since Trembley is staying. Oh wait, yeah you've already proved that. Drama Queen.
Posted by: bms | October 28, 2009 1:58 PM
BMS please save that money and spend it on tickets to the games. As long at dave t is managing this team that post above will be my last.
Posted by: blancione | October 28, 2009 2:05 PM
He's doing it again, everyone! Bob is threatening to leave us! Last time it was for what? 48 Hours?
What's the over/under this time?
Posted by: b | October 28, 2009 2:12 PM
-30-
Battling Bob: Your post today is your second post about baseball and the Orioles since your farewell tour.
Why you thought anyone cared whether or not you posted is beyond me, but it was certainly thoughtful of you to announce your retirement. But, you can't help yourself; you're back in the trenches once more and as semi-literate as ever. As long as you apparently know what a capital letter is, please use a "C" when spelling "Christmas."
Why should a reader believe anything you say if you repeatedly break your word. As an attorney asks on cross-examination, “Were you lying then, or are you lying now?”
Roch - does anyone in the media have the stones to publicly stand up and rip the Yankees for this farce of a World Series? There is NOTHING special about what they accomplished. Given the insane advantage in terms of talent that their payroll affords, this is like celebrating a powerhouse college football team beating a cupcake program.
I'd like to see one national sports writer or commentator interrupt all the gushing about the Yankees to say something like "level the playing field and then lets see how good the Yankees are".
I'm just sick watching the game right now. I've been a rabid O's fan for 40 years and I'm seriously considering giving up baseball for good until a hard salary cap is put in place. Doesn't anyone in the commissioners office know that baseball in non-New York markets is being damaged by what the Yankees are doing?
Nothing like levity to lift one's spirits but in all seriousness, condolences on your loss Joe
Pass on Matsui. Huge downside, not much upside. How will he perform when 10-12 games back in June/July? Rather take a chance on Troy Glaus. I look forward to the lineup when Bell and Snyder can rightfully earn their way in.
I'm thinking the O's future cleanup hitter is Reimold, or Weiters, or possibly Bell. Also hoping that Johnson or Ray can close. Love the homegrown guys with a small FA or two.
Hate the mercenaries which is why I left the Yankee fandom world a few years back and came over to the Orange and Black. FYI - been a Colts fan since the '60's. Love that horseshoe, Ray Berry and Jimmy Orr, and Chuck Thompson, of course.
Here's to future good times and back to the Oriole Way. Go O's!
Pass on Matsui. Huge downside, not much upside. How will he perform when 10-12 games back in June/July? Rather take a chance on Troy Glaus. I look forward to the lineup when Bell and Snyder can rightfully earn their way in.
I'm thinking the O's future cleanup hitter is Reimold, or Weiters, or possibly Bell. Also hoping that Johnson or Ray can close. Love the homegrown guys with a small FA or two.
Hate the mercenaries which is why I left the Yankee fandom world a few years back and came over to the Orange and Black. FYI - been a Colts fan since the '60's. Love that horseshoe, Ray Berry and Jimmy Orr, and Chuck Thompson, of course.
Here's to future good times and back to the Oriole Way. Go O's!
Lucky H.S.,
I thought that I had Battling Bob figured out, but I am happy to acknowledge your penetrating deconstruction of the biggest blowhard since Katrina. Nicely done.
Couple thoughts today --
Brummie,
2 well thought out posts. We can always disagree about the way the franchise is run, but I'll give you credit for stepping up your game today.
Yankee Fan in Towson,
Go find a bandwagon NY blog to get your kicks. I think ESPN might do the trick. No one here cares about your flavor of the month team. I'll bet you've always been a Lakers & Patriots fan too!
As for Matsui, a big no! I'd still rather take a shot at Vlad. The guy can still swing the stick. Most of the hitters with some pop in this market have injury issues. I'll take Vlad, but will settle for either Dye or Abreu.
Roch,
Given a lot of thought about this travesty of a WS and the Yankees buying everything in sight. Like a lot of folks, I'd love to see a hard cap, but the problem as I see it, a lot of the under-performing smaller market teams, would end up playing the savings game, and come way under the cap. And their owners pocket the savings. And markets like NY, Boston, LA, & Chicago would pretty much use up their cap space. I don't see a cap fixing this issue. Fact is we have some poorly run franchises in this league, and we've been one of them. You'd need to start with a real honest to god Commish, and let him address the current situation with the owners, and pretty much tell them, baseball is a broken sport. You can't have 22-23 teams out of playoff contention by July 1st! Look what the biggest sports network has been reduced to: hoping either the Yankees or Redsox get in WS, and either the Dodgers or Mets representing the NL. How can this be good for baseball?